Trump's White House Win Was Foreshadowed by 'Brexit': Expert
While Donald Trump’s presidential victory left pundits and pollsters flabbergasted, some experts have suggested that the foreshocks of this political earthquake were apparent months ago, thousands of miles across the Atlantic.
Just like the U.S. race, Britain's "Brexit" referendum saw voters reject an establishment campaign that for months had led in the polls.
What tripped up the pollsters during the U.K. vote was an unexpectedly high turnout among white working-class voters. Many people within this demographic said they were angry with a complacent political establishment for putting a project of globalization and immigration ahead of their communities.
Although hows and whys of the U.S. presidential vote will be analyzed for months, the NBC News Exit Poll suggested these same grievances formed some of the main drivers of Hillary Clinton’s crushing loss.
"Undeniably Brexit was a foreshadowing of what happened in the U.S. last night," Ben Page, chief executive of British pollster IPSOS Mori, told NBC News on Wednesday.
It was not the first time these parallels have been drawn, with Michael Moore among the commentators predicting the forces of Brexit would secure a Trump victory.
On Wednesday this prediction was realized. According to the exit poll, white voters without a college degree broke for Trump by a huge 30 points in the Rust Belt swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. This demographic was underrepresented by pollsters because they haven't voted in such large numbers before.
Although the parallels are clear, the bigger picture is likely more nuanced, according to Page.
"The simple narrative is that this vote is the revenge of the white working class, but it's a bit more complicated than that," he explained. "It's clearly part of the story but it's not exhaustive. For example, it looks like more Hispanics voted for Trump than voted for [2012 Republican nominee Mitt] Romney, so we need to look at the whole picture."