updated 10/17/2006 12:22:39 PM ET 2006-10-17T16:22:39

Guests: Roger Stone, Ed Gillespie, Joe Klein, Dan Hynes, Sam Greenfield, Mark Williams

TUCKER CARLSON, HOST:  Welcome to the show.

I‘m Tucker Carlson.

We‘ve got a lot to get to today, including Barack Obama‘s unofficial run for president—it starts now—and how Hillary Clinton‘s campaign mocks John McCain‘s five and half years in a North Vietnamese prison camp, if you can believe it. 

But first, our top story of the day: the strangely upbeat mood at the White House.  Election watchers are scratching their heads over predictions by the president and his top political adviser, Karl Rove, that the Republican Party will keep control of the Congress next month.  That‘s in spite of Mark Foley‘s X-rated page scandal and the president‘s own rapidly plummeting poll numbers.

So, is the White House completely out of touch, or Is Karl Rove on to something?  And will Democrats screw it up once again? 

Joining me now to answer those questions, Republican strategist Roger Stone.  He joins us from Cleveland.

Roger, welcome. 

If anyone would know, it‘s you.  Do you think Karl Rove knows something that we don‘t know? 

ROGER STONE, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST:  Well, you know, I know Karl Rove very well.  I‘ve know him since college.  He is a very clever fellow, he‘s a very smart fellow, but I think this is whistling past the graveyard. 

I‘m calling in today from Cleveland, and out here on business.  And I must tell you, I‘m at ground zero of the Republican meltdown.  I mean, between Congressman Bob Ney pleading guilty, Bob Taft‘s crony who managed state funds on trial here in Columbus, and Bob Taft presiding over the loss of 250,000 jobs in three years, the Republican party was already in a meltdown before Mark Foley came along, and the poor guy who suffers here I think is Mike DeWine. 

CARLSON:  That‘s—that‘s the way it seems.  A front page “New York Times” piece today saying the Republican Party is all but written off.

DeWine‘s seat, unusual to see an incumbent written off like that.  But it appears he‘s going to lose.

But back to Karl Rove for a sec, Rove is saying this—I‘ve heard him personally say it, that he believes Republicans are going to hold on to the House and the Senate.  He‘s going to be proved right or wrong in three weeks.  Why would he, one of the smartest people in politics, be telling people something that if it‘s wrong would be obvious to everyone that‘s wrong really soon? 

STONE:  Because it‘s message discipline.  Karl‘s a very disciplined master of this particular game. 

You certainly don‘t say to your own troop—you don‘t say to everybody who is working overtime to try to get Republicans, even moderate Republicans disenchanted with the war, or Evangelical Christians disgusted by the Mark Foley matter to come back and vote.  Right now Republican vote is suppressed around the country.  You don‘t dispirit your people by announcing, you know, I think we‘re in trouble in two weeks and we could lose both houses of the Congress.

Karl is far too disciplined for that.  He‘s doing his job by remaining upbeat.  But, I mean, any objective observer would have to look at these numbers across the country, Clay Shaw in Florida, you know, and numerous races that were thought to be leaning Republican now contentious. 

CARLSON:  Yes.  I completely agree.  I think you‘re absolutely right.

Interesting, though, that the Republicans, by the end of all this, it looks like they‘ll have about a $55 million advantage over the Democrats.  Doesn‘t this kind of put to rest once and for all the lie, the myth that everyone repeats every season, that money is everything?  You can have more money and still lose. 

STONE:  Well, what you‘re talking about is driving a yacht into a tsunami.  It may be a very expensive yacht, but there‘s a tsunami coming.  And I think that—that money at this point doesn‘t matter. 

The Democrats are competitive on money.  As long as Democrats have enough money to communicate in this atmosphere, they don‘t need to outspend the Republicans to win.  They just have to spend their money wisely.  And you‘re seeing more and more Democrats become competitive in races around the country where that shouldn‘t be the case.

CARLSON:  Is there any scenario that you have heard of or have thought about for Republicans holding the House of Representatives? 

STONE:  Well, first of all, I think we should recognize that in politics two and a half weeks is a lifetime.  And an international crisis, god forbid, terrorist attack on the country, or some new scandal, you know, maybe Harry Reid‘s land problems are more extensive than we think.  I mean, you don‘t know what‘s going to happen in two and a half weeks, but if—as Nixon said the night of the 1960 election, “If the trend continues, I will lose.”

I think we are about to lose. 

CARLSON:  And what happened to Richard Nixon in 1960? 

STONE:  Well, he was very narrowly defeated. 

CARLSON:  He lost.

STONE:  Or the election was stolen from him.

CARLSON:  Right.

STONE:  One—one or another.  I don‘t expect this to be a photo finish, though.  I just think that—you know, that there is—you know, there‘s a tsunami coming, as I say.

CARLSON:  Roger Stone, one of the smartest people in politics. 

Thank you very much. 

STONE:  Great to be with you, Tucker.

CARLSON:  Thanks, Roger.

One race that has drawn national attention, Virginia senator George Allen‘s battle for reelection against Democratic challenger Jim Webb.  It wasn‘t supposed to be much of a race. 

Virginia was a reliably Republican state.  Allen was the conservative incumbent, as well as a popular former governor.  He‘s also the son of a legendary Redskins football coach.

Jim Webb, meanwhile, was an author and a journalist, but he had never been elected to anything.  And yet, as of this week, the two are neck-and-neck, with Allen in real danger of losing.  The question is, what happened there?

Joining me now with answers, Allen adviser and former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie.

Ed, thanks for coming on.

What—what happened?

ED GILLESPIE, FMR. RNC CHAIRMAN:  Well, it became October.  You know, obviously Senator Allen had a rough summer with the “Macaca” incident.  He apologized for that, but it generated a lot of coverage.

But the fact is, Tucker, Virginia is not a very deeply red state, a reliably red state.  It is a very purple state, as you know.

Back-to-back Democratic governors have been elected in Virginia.  The margin of victory for statewide candidates is generally—you know, you max out around 52, 53 percent.  You operate in a band of about four to five points that both parties operate inside of.

And so I think what we are seeing is, as the election gets closer and we get into the fall and Democrats go home and Republicans go home to their respective candidates, the race is tightening up as we expected.  So they had Senator Allen with a three- point lead in “The Washington Post” poll, and, you know, we‘re inside that band right now. 

CARLSON:  What‘s confusing to me—and let me just say, I like Senator Allen a lot personally, and I really like his wife.  Really one of the sweetest women in the political world.

It‘s not a personal attack, but I wonder a conservative very much about the attacks that Allen is leveling against his opponent, Jim Webb, where Allen basically sounds like a radical feminist.  He‘s attacking Webb for suggesting in 1979 that women shouldn‘t be enrolled at the Naval Academy.

Webb, of course, is a graduate of the Naval Academy, a Vietnam war hero.  And he said, you know, women actually aren‘t good in combat, maybe they shouldn‘t go to the Naval Academy.

You all—the Allen campaign has set up this Web site, webbagainstwomen.com.  Basically, this kind of radical feminist Web site set up by a conservative Republican.

What is that?

GILLESPIE:  Well, actually, Tucker, it‘s not the position that James Webb took.  A lot of people took that position in terms of integrating the academies.  It was the tone that James Webb used at the time and the words that he chose.  And many women who were in that first class and subsequent classes said that the words that James Webb used help to stoke a very hostile atmosphere there. 

So it was not the position, so much as it was...

CARLSON:  Whoa, whoa.  Now, Ed—Ed, I would hate to see you, a good and smart guy and a conservative, all of a sudden sounding like, you know, a women‘s studies professor at a junior college.  Because that‘s basically what you‘re saying.  You‘re saying that his words, his opinions stoked violence.  That‘s a classic left-wing argument, and it‘s all over this Web site. 

GILLESPIE:  No.  Tucker, your viewers didn‘t hear me say that because I didn‘t say that.

CARLSON:  Oh, OK.

GILLESPIE:  What I said was the words he used fostered a hostile environment from their fellow cadets.  It wasn‘t the position taken, it wasn‘t his opinion.  That opinion was shared by a lot of people, including a lot of conservatives. 

But using phrases like “horny women‘s dream” for—you know, saying that the dormitories there would be a “horny women‘s dream” and some of the other things that I don‘t really care to repeat over your airwaves...

CARLSON:  Why don‘t you care to repeat them?  You‘re using them in ads against the guy.  I‘ll repeat some of them for you because you‘ve got them up on the site.

It says—you attack Webb for saying this, that there are 18,000 single parents in the Army.  Webb says, “What do we do to assure readiness?  Do we turn the Army into a baby-sitting service?”

That‘s a completely valid, completely fair concern.  And you  make it sound like he hates women for suggesting that single mothers don‘t make for a good Army. 

I don‘t get it.

GILLESPIE:  The site you‘re citing, Tucker, is from women who were in the academy at the time.  And they are expressing their view that the way James Webb cast this argument was a negative.

CARLSON:  But you‘re paying for the site.

GILLESPIE:  But the—yes, I understand that.  But it is the—I think the women have a right to express their views and to share that with other women...

(CROSSTALK)

CARLSON:  What do you mean they have a right?  You‘re paying for it.  I mean, you‘re using their views to beat your opponent over the head.  And I‘m must merely—I‘m pointing out that you‘re using a left wing—a traditionally left-wing argument against a Democrat.  And it‘s just—it‘s like the world turned on its head to me.

GILLESPIE:  Look, Tucker, you picked that issue.  There are a lot of other issues that are...

CARLSON:  Yes.

GILLESPIE:  ... you know, very important in this campaign that Senator Allen is stressing, particularly taxes, which are very important...

CARLSON:  Right.

GILLESPIE:  ... at a time that we‘re...

CARLSON:  Totally fair.

GILLESPIE:  ... trying to foster economic growth and create jobs like we‘re seeing now in the economy.  And James Webb has said that we have got to have more revenues and raise taxes on the people of the Commonwealth of Virginia.  We think that‘s a mistake.  We think that‘s a real difference.

The fact is that James Webb, when asked about his position on NSA surveillance of suspected terrorists, continued to take a position that that is a violation of civil liberties, when it‘s the kind of thing that has kept us safe.  To listen to people from al Qaeda calling into the United States, as one of the programs said, has helped keep us safe since September 11th.

So there are a lot of issues that...

(CROSSTALK)

CARLSON:  And I think those are all great—those are great issues to run a campaign on, I think.

GILLESPIE:  They‘re great issues to run a campaign on.

CARLSON:  But this...

GILLESPIE:  That‘s what we‘re talking about.

CARLSON:  The feminists—the feminists were out.  I mean, it just—

I don‘t know, it makes me red in the face.

I‘m sorry.  I know I‘m giving you such a hard time about it, but...

GILLESPIE:  Well, you are giving me a hard time about it, and that‘s fair, that‘s your prerogative, it‘s your show.  But you can also spend time on your show talking about the difference of opinion that the two men have on immigration policy, where James Webb...

(CROSSTALK)

CARLSON:  I picked it out not because I have any desire to be mean to Mr. Allen, Senator Allen, whom I like, as I said.  Because I live in the Washington media market, I see your ads, and the ads I‘ve seen have been feminist ads.

They haven‘t been immigration ads.  Those are the ads I have seen.  So that‘s why I brought that up, because as a voter, or a would-be—if I lived in Virginia—a would-be voter, I don‘t know, that‘s—that‘s the message you‘re bringing to me. 

GILLESPIE:  The tax ad is up now.

CARLSON:  OK.

GILLESPIE:  The ad you‘re citing is down.

CARLSON:  Well, OK. 

GILLESPIE:  You‘re welcome to cite that.  That‘s a good ad.  And I think they‘re both legitimate issues, by the way.

CARLSON:  I haven‘t seen it yet.  I‘m going to sit down and flip on the tube tonight, and I hope your ad gets me.

Ed Gillespie, an able defender.

Thank you very much.

GILLESPIE:  Thanks for having me on.

CARLSON:  Still to come, is Barack Obama running for president?  One man hopes so, a candidate he defeated in 2004.  So why is he backing the man who beat him? 

We‘ll find out.

And welcome to America, population 300 million as of tomorrow.  But is that cause for celebration, or is it the beginning of the end of our way of life? 

That story when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CARLSON:  Welcome back. 

The Democratic Party‘s brightest rising star could be headed to the White House.  Not Hillary Clinton.  It‘s Barack Obama.  One sign, he‘s on the cover of this week‘s “TIME” magazine.

My next guest is the author of that story, “Why Barack Obama Could be the Next President”.

Joe Klein is the Washington correspondent for “TIME” and he joins us from Philadelphia.

Joe, welcome.

You‘ve covered an endless number of campaigns.  You‘ve been around a long time.

What do you think of Barack Obama?  Is he the real thing? 

JOE KLEIN, “TIME” MAGAZINE:  Well, before I—before I do that, I just have to say the first 10 minutes  were hilarious and proof positive that Republicans can be every bit as clunky as Democrats when they‘re on the defensive.

CARLSON:  Yes, that feminist stuff drives me crazy no matter who‘s pushing it.

KLEIN:  Yes.  Well, I mean, you know, parties that are desperate act desperately.

CARLSON:  Yes.

KLEIN:  And foolishly.

Now, to Barack Obama, really interesting.  I don‘t know about you, but I am just sick of my generation, the baby boom generation.

CARLSON:  I am, too.  They‘re awful.

KLEIN:  And, you know, 1965, when John Lindsay ran for mayor of New York, his slogan was he‘s fresh and everybody else is tired.  Well, you know, that‘s Barack Obama‘s slogan at this point if he runs.

He really opened the door when I spoke with him this week, you know, about a run for the presidency.  So, he‘s either doing that, or he‘s using a time-warn strategy to sell his new book.

CARLSON:  Well, about the book, you take the book seriously in your piece, which is a great piece, I have to say.

KLEIN:  Thanks.

CARLSON:  And in it you say—you counted 28 self-deprecating admissions in the book, including the fact he admits to using cocaine, smoking pot, enjoying private jets, “causing tensions in his marriage,” being grumpy in the morning, maybe even his ability as a father and a husband.

I mean, that‘s unbelievable.  Why—why would he admit all of that? 

And will it hurt him? 

KLEIN:  Well, he admits all that to create the appearance of candor.  By the way, the cocaine and marijuana admissions were in his first book, “Dreams From My Father,” which was probably the best written book I‘ve ever read by a politician.  It was really gorgeous.

CARLSON:  Did he write it?

KLEIN:  Oh, yes, absolutely.  You can tell.  This is a guy who actually has a prose style.

First of all, Tucker, this guy is drop-dead smart.  He was the president of the “Harvard Law Review” when he was at Harvard Law School, and he got there by winning the conservatives in the class. 

So, I mean, he can write, he can think.  And I think that the candor is a strategy in a way.  It takes—it takes your attention away from the fact that on some of the big issues facing the country and the Democratic Party he‘s being very cautious right now.

CARLSON:  Where is there room for him?  If Hillary Clinton runs, where does Barack Obama fit in the spectrum, in the primary?

KLEIN:  He creates his own spectrum.  I mean, when you see the audiences that this guy is drawing as he goes around the country, you know, they‘re two to three to four to five times the size of other politicians, and they‘re wildly enthusiastic.

I mean, he drew 3,500 people to a Tom Harkin steak fry in Iowa, which was clearly a presidential event in September.  So, you know, it‘s kind of like watching Willie Mays play centerfield when I was a kid.  This guy changed—changes the shape of the field because he is so good at it. 

He‘s really effortless on the stump.  He‘s—you know, he‘s as good as anybody I‘ve seen since Clinton.

CARLSON:  Amazing.  And do you—I mean, this is such a hard question to answer, and maybe there‘s no answer.  But, you know, is he going to run?  I mean, will—even if Ms. Clinton stays in, is he going to—is he going to try?

KLEIN:  Well, I talked to some old, wise, you know, Chicago pals about this.  And I think a lot of this depends on Hillary. 

If Hillary gets in early, if she announces in January and then goes through the year of going to all of those stupid candidate forums that the Democrats—the Democrats‘ interest groups have—you know (INAUDIBLE) and the tree huggers have one, and the NAACP happens (ph).  And the effect of all those is to diminish the size of the candidates.

You know, Obama can get into this thing late because he has such a big name, he has the ability to raise money on the Internet.  And as you said earlier, money is the most important thing in politics, except for when it isn‘t important.

CARLSON:  Right.  That‘s right.

KLEIN:  And in this case, this is a guy who could, you know, create a real thunderstorm if he gets in.  But we‘ll see.

He‘s very young.  And—although he‘s older than Bill Clinton was.  He‘s older than John Kerry is.  I‘m just older now.  You know, I‘m an old fart saying he‘s too young.

CARLSON:  Yes.  Well, I‘m pretty young.  He looks young to me.

Joe Klein, thank you.  I appreciate it.  Great piece.

KLEIN:  My pleasure.

CARLSON:  Well, my next guest has urged Barack Obama to run for president, even though Obama defeated him in Illinois in 2004 for the Democratic primary.  He says, “Barack Obama is a man for these times.  He and he alone can restore the hope and the optimism that made this country great.”

Dan Hynes is Illinois‘ state comptroller.  He joins us from Chicago.

Mr. Hynes, thanks for coming on.

Why would you urge a man who beat you to run for president? 

DAN HYNES, ILLINOIS STATE COMPTROLLER:  Well, I learned a lot about Barack when I ran against him.  My respect for him grew during the campaign, but what‘s happened since can be described as nothing short of a phenomenon.

His speech at the convention, the crowds that Joe talked about that he draws everywhere in the country that he goes—he is somebody I think who electrifies the spirit of this country, and I think he‘s somebody who we need right now, frankly, our country, to both motivate and inspire and unify a very disunited country. 

CARLSON:  Well, I mean, with all due respect, I think Barack Obama seems like a fairly decent guy, and certainly a talented one.  But he‘s been there about 20 minutes.  This is a Senate full of Democrats who have been there a long time, who have devoted their lives to changing the world, for good or for ill. 

So what do you say to people like Joe Biden, who—you know, he ran for president in 1988.  How insulting is it that Democrats would be pushing a man who has been there for less than two years?  If you see what I mean.

HYNES:  Well, I do see what you mean.  Barack has dedicated his life -

it‘s just not as long of a life—to public service. 

He was a civil rights activist, a state senator, and now a United States senator.  But I think that people aren‘t looking for a resonate a mile long.  They‘re looking for leadership, they‘re looking for integrity, and ability.  And Barack has all those things.

CARLSON:  Yes.

HYNES:  I mean, he‘s somebody who certainly can do the job.  He‘s intelligent as they come, he‘s knowledgeable on the issues, he‘s thoughtful on the issues. 

But more than that—because I think you can say that about all the Democrats running, or potentially running—more than that, he inspires people like someone I‘ve never seen before in my lifetime.  And certainly in reading history books I think you have to go back to Jack Kennedy.

He‘s just somebody who...

CARLSON:  So when you ran against him you didn‘t criticize him?

HYNES:  Actually, I didn‘t.  I mean, he and I ran a very friendly race because we were both colleagues in Springfield.  We worked in government together.

It was a very messy race because there were seven people in there.

CARLSON:  Yes.

HYNES:  But he and I were very cordial all along.  And then the night he defeated me we talked on the phone and he was—he was very gracious.  But as I say, every day since then has been a phenomenon. 

I mean, I do not think he knew and I don‘t think anyone knew how great he was.  Sometimes when an opportunity presents itself, you see what somebody has really—the potential they really have.  And I think that‘s the case with Barack.

CARLSON:  It‘s interesting.  It says a lot, actually.  You are kind of winning me over to your side here. 

I mean, you know, you have every reason to dislike him and you don‘t. 

And I think that says something good about him and you.

Dan Hynes, thanks for joining us.

HYNES:  Thanks.

CARLSON:  Coming up, why Hillary Clinton personally apologized to John McCain for a campaign potshot.  Did her campaign cross the line? 

We‘ll tell you what they said.

And the latest rape Duke—Duke rape outrage, rather.  Why the accuser‘s family is coming out swinging.

That story when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CARLSON:  Time now for “Beat the Press”.

Former congressman Gerry Studds of Massachusetts died last week.  Studds, a Democrat, was the first openly gay member of the House of Representatives.  As such, he was hailed as a pioneer in many obituaries. 

The Associated Press, for instance, quoted Studds‘ husband describing him as a civil rights hero.  Less prominently mentioned was the fact that while still a congressman, Studds admitted to having sex with an underage male page.  Sound familiar?  Studds never apologized for what he did. 

“This young man knew what he was doing,” Studds‘ husband Dean Hara was quoted as saying about the boy.  Meanwhile, on the very same day it was warmly remembering Gerry Studds as a civil rights hero, The Associated Press was condemning former Republican congressman Mark Foley, who, as far as we know, never touched an underage page and apologized for even trying. 

The AP described him as “disgraced.”  Well, talk about disgraceful.  Is the unequal treatment of these two men—“That young man knew what he was doing.” 

The fact that the AP would allow that comment into an obituary without challenging it, as if this kid by dressing provocatively or being a boy somehow deserved being molested by a creep like Gerry Studds, allowing that to get into an obit without saying anything about it, outrageous.  Outrageous.

Well next, Geraldo Rivera with some fighting words for Mel Gibson again.  During an appearance on “The O‘Reilly Factor,” Rivera let the world know how he would have handled Gibson‘s drunken rant to cops in July.

Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GERALDO RIVERA, “THE O‘REILLY FACTOR”:  What he said there, if he said it in my presence, I would have smacked him.  And that‘s the bottom line.

BILL O‘REILLY, “THE O‘REILLY FACTOR”:  You would have smacked him?

RIVERA:  I would have smacked him.  If he said to me in my face, “Geraldo Rivera, Jews are responsible”—“Are you Jewish?  Jews are responsible...”

O‘REILLY:  But you smack people all the time for a lot less than that.

RIVERA:  I haven‘t smacked someone in three years.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON:  Well, it‘s not the first time Geraldo has expressed his desire to kick some butt.  Here are a couple of disgraced guests. 

Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RIVERA:  If he said that to me, what he said to that Jewish deputy on the side of Pacific Coast Highway, I would have smacked him right in his face, because that is a bunch of bull.

That husband of hers, I want to kick him in the ass.  He‘s a jerk.  I mean, this is Rusty Yates.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON:  Geraldo Rivera, the most dangerous man in cable news.

It kind of makes you want to pick a fight with Geraldo just to see just how tough is Geraldo.  I love Geraldo.  It‘s a good thing, because I‘d like to kick his butt, otherwise.

Still to come, everyone knows politics is a very dirty business, but Hillary Clinton‘s campaign may have hit a new low with a recent shot at John McCain—pretty over the top.  I‘ll tell you what they said.

And the population of the U.S. is due to reach 300 million people tomorrow morning at precisely 7:46 Eastern Time.  But that may not be good news. 

We have got the story when we come back. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CARLSON:  Still to come, the storm of controversy over Senator Harry Reid‘s million dollar Vegas land deal, was it ethical?  And the new survey that shows married couples are in the minority in this country for the first time.  Is marriage itself on the decline?  All that in just a minute but right now, here‘s a look at your headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

CARLSON:  Time now for three on three where we welcome two of the sharpest people we know to talk about three of today‘s most interesting stories.  Joining us from New York City, Sam Greenfield, host of “The Morning Show” on WWRL Radio. And from Sacramento, California, radio talk show host Mark Williams.  Welcome to you both.  Well probable presidential candidate Hillary Clinton personally apologized over the weekend to the man who may be her chief rival in 2008, Senator John McCain.  In the aftermath of McCain‘s criticism of her husband former President Bill Clinton‘s policy failure in North Korea, an advisor to Senator McCain accused McCain of doing the White House‘s dirty work.  The adviser said McCain ended up looking, “similar to the way he did on those captive tapes from Hanoi,” where he recited the names of his crew mates.  Ouch, what do you make of this Sam?  By the way, that wound up in a column this weekend in the “New York Times,” in the (INAUDIBLE) Dowd column yesterday.  It‘s very uncharacteristic though it seemed to me of Hillary Clinton‘s staff that someone would speak in an unauthorized way.  Was it unauthorized, what do you think?

SAM GREENFIELD, :  I‘m sorry, you didn‘t say Hillary Clinton‘s staff, you said an adviser to her campaign.  That‘s very different, number one.  Number two, she and John McCain are good friends.  She apologized, he accepted the apology.  The source that Marine Dowd named was an anonymous source, because no one knows who it is.  Once she‘s apologized, I think this is over.  I mean she can‘t shoot the guy or the woman who said it.

CARLSON:  Well she apologized, I‘m sorry they said it.  When you‘re right, of course, she‘s not responsible for what unnamed sources who may or may not work for her say.  On the other hand, you know Maureen Dowd, I think we can say, please say, Willie was talking to someone close to Hillary Clinton, that‘s how she described the person.

GREENFIELD:  And they said something stupid and she apologized for it.

CARLSON:  And I‘m not even attacking Hillary Clinton, as much as I‘m asking this question.  Isn‘t odd how many times have you seen this in the past?  Where someone in her orbit says something unauthorized.  I can think of, let‘s see, oh yeah, zero times I‘ve seen it.

MARK WILLIAMS, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST:  I remember a couple of times about four or five six years ago when somebody in the Bush campaign said something about Senator McCain and his service in Vietnam and that his wife was a drug addict.  And that he kidnapped his child and that he turned on his buddies in Vietnam.  Senator Cane took better than this.  He took that better than this, that‘s amazing. 

CARLSON:  There‘s no doubt that people around Bush, yeah, attacked McCain, that‘s what you do when you‘re running against someone.  Mark, here‘s my question though, is it harder for - this is not an attack on Hillary Clinton.  But ‘m wondering if it‘s going to be possible for her when she does get underway in her presidential campaign to really lay in to her opponents or is she going to seem frankly shrewish if she does that.  Can she be as harsh as a normal candidate would be?

WILLIAMS:  She‘s in a very difficult position to begin with because she‘s a woman.  A woman who‘s assertive is going to be seen as shrill no matter what you say.  But I think the more important—and you‘ve touched on this Tucker.  The more important aspect of this is McCain criticized the Clinton administration—legitimate criticism on a failed approach toward North Korea.  We know it failed, because a nuclear bomb went off there a few days ago.  The response from the Hillary camp was to go off on this attack of a man who at the time he was in those pictures was seen by the staff or the adviser was being tortured, was being made to speak out against his country and was in the middle of a five and a half year stint in the fetal position in a tiger cage.  I think it‘s interesting that a legitimate political criticism is answered by the Hillary camp with a shot like that.  I also think and I can‘t believe I‘m saying this, its commendable of Hillary that she stepped in and she slapped the guy down with an apology, because it was a highly inappropriate rude thing for anybody to say, even a Democrat.

CARLSON:  If they run against each other it will be interesting and I like John McCain a lot, and I‘ve spent a lot of time with him, and obviously I‘m not going to be voting for Hillary Clinton.  Because he is one of those guys, it‘s hard to criticize him because of his past.  A lot of attacks you‘d level on another candidate or consider unacceptable when leveled against McCain. And as I said Hillary Clinton has problems I think attacking anybody because it reinforces the stereotype that she is nasty. 

GREENFIELD:  The frustrating part of dealing with Senator McCain is not only do we like him as an individual and we respect what he has accomplished and what he went through, but he gives us so much good material sometimes. 

WILLIAMS:  I think it‘s good if we stay in the 21st century.  She is a woman ergo she‘s shrill.  Also I think it‘s amusing that this bomb that North Korea detonated went off during Bush‘s administration, but it‘s Clinton‘s fault.  Come on—

GREENFIELD:  It was the Clinton policy of giving—

WILLIAMS:  It went off during the Bush administration because cowboy George won‘t negotiate and its Clinton‘s fault?

GREENFIELD:  Kim Jong Mentally Il, oil and support engrained and

return a (INAUDIBLE) not to build a bomb that went off -

WILLIAMS:  A shrill woman, why don‘t we spank her?  Good lord.  Why does McCain have to call her Mrs. Clinton, not Senator Clinton?  Why not?

CARLSON:  Maureen Dowd made a big deal about that, I just figure everybody in D.C. calls her Mrs. Clinton just because she was the first lady. 

WILLIAMS:  That is not true.  She is addressed as Senator Clinton on the floor of the senate, not Mrs. Clinton.

CARLSON:  You‘re exactly right. And when she‘s up on the Senate, I‘m just saying, it‘s not necessarily an attack on her to call her Mrs.

Clinton, you‘re just used to calling her that because she was the first

lady for eight years.  I don‘t know -

GREENFIELD:  And now she‘s not, and we don‘t call him Governor Bush, we call him President Bush.

CARLSON:  That‘s a fair point, but I just think it‘s, I don‘t know, it‘s being a little bit of an uptight feminist to see an attack.  Let‘s see if you can call this stuff being shrill.  Democratic Senator Harry Reid, he announced today he‘s amending his ethics report to congress.  Why?  Because those reports were fraudulent basically.  His announcement came in response to an AP story that he did not disclose his ownership in a stake in a friend‘s company.  That very same company had sold property in 2001, when the company sold that land again in 2004, Reid collected $1.1 million.  He blamed the AP story on Republican attempts to affect the election.  But the truth is Sam, yes, he didn‘t report what he did accurately in his public ethics report.  And I‘m not exactly sure why.  Why?

GREENFIELD:  I don‘t know.  But I do know Senator Reid, I used to live in Las Vegas and Senator Reid is a great man and a great American.  And by the way, let me put on my glasses because I‘m blind without them.  To my knowledge, there is actually nothing illegal about what he did.  Absolutely nothing.

CARLSON:  Well that‘s not a defense. 

GREENFIELD:  What he did was sell property, buy it back for himself and make a handy profit.  He has in fact expanded the report to include what‘s going on totally.  By the way—

CARLSON:  Wait, wait, wait.  You‘re dodging the point, I mean look I like Harry Reid too, I‘ve dealt with Harry Reid personally and I like the guy.  I think he‘s tough and he‘s smart.

GREENFIELD:  Do I think what he did is illegal?

CARLSON:  No, but nobody‘s saying it‘s illegal at this point.  The question is, I mean there‘s no question that it‘s—

GREENFIELD:  What is the question?

CARLSON:  The question is why did he file essentially - not essentially, literally false ethics reports?  I‘m not saying it‘s illegal, it‘s kind of hard to defend however, isn‘t it?

GREENFIELD:  He did not file a false report, he filed an abbreviated report.  He has now said he will file an expanded report to cover every question that is being asked.  You can‘t say it is not illegal and say it is fraudulent.  If it is fraudulent then it‘s illegal.  And that‘s fine.  I don‘t mean it‘s fine, but if it, then it is.

CARLSON:  No, that‘s your point.  I don‘t think fraudulent is the correct word and I take that back and I‘m not accusing him of legal fraud.  Inaccurate I guess is the word I meant.  Mark, what do you make of this?

WILLIAMS:  It‘s appropriate that Sam is on because Sam just kind of latches onto frivolity so well.  I don‘t think it‘s a huge issue, given what‘s facing us in this country.  So he was sloppy, he didn‘t write down something on a piece of paper.  That‘s great, I have plenty of reasons to criticize Harry Reid.  The fact that he made a shrewd land deal with or with help and reported it or didn‘t report it completely, not withstanding, it is a peripheral issue - with the stuff that we have to talk about, like Sam obsessing over calling Mrs. Clinton, Mrs. Clinton.  When there‘s a nuclear bomb going off some place else.

CARLSON:  I haven‘t heard that one.

WILLIAMS:  I stole it from somebody.

CARLSON:  I don‘t listen to radio.  Ok good.  All right, again, Harry Reid is innocent.  All right, we‘ll move on, wait until I get Geraldo to slap you. 

CARLSON:  And he will, watch out, he is a dangerous man. 

GREENFIELD:  He‘s a slap happy guy.

CARLSON:  He is.  Well the U.S. Census bureau will soon announce that the population has reached 300 million people in this country.  According to a demographer at the Brookings Institution, the 300 millionth baby born in this country will likely be Latino.  That child will likely be born tomorrow morning at about 7:46 a.m.  The growth in the U.S. among Hispanics is faster than any other group.  It‘s another sign that illegal immigration is putting a burden on our county it seems to me.  Sam, this is both good and bad, obviously.  The fact that we have population growth in this country makes us different from Western Europe where they have of course a decline.  But the fact that much of this growth is coming from immigrants - - legal and illegal.  Reminds us that our country is changing much quicker than most people understand.  And, that changes beyond the control of most people, and that‘s frustrating.

GREENFIELD:  Well let me say this.  The fact that the child may be Latino does not mean the child is A, an immigrant or B, illegal immigrant.  The child could be third generation American.

CARLSON: Absolutely.

GREENFIELD:  You‘re making an assumption that is not based on fact.  And the other thing you didn‘t report was according to the Brookings Institute, the child will be born at 7:46 a.m. and the father will be asleep with a cigar in his mouth.  How do they find out these things?

CARLSON:  No, no, no.  It‘s of course an ad, but here‘s the point,

okay.  There are now about -

GREENFIELD:  The mother will be drunk.  I mean how do they find out this stuff?

CARLSON:  They‘re extrapolating and they‘re - right?

WILLIAMS:  I was caught doing that as a child.  Exactly, there‘s not an actual child who‘s identity we‘re going to know.  No?

CARLSON:  See someone on the morning shows tomorrow pretending to be a couple—Look, here‘s the point. There are about 10-1/2 million illegal aliens living in this country right now, that number goes up every single year.  The rate of immigration, legal and illegal into this country is at it‘s highest levels in the history of the country.  So this idea that oh, we‘ve always had this trickle of immigration in our country, this is who we are.  It‘s a lie, things are changing faster now than in history and I‘m wondering Mark, if this isn‘t yet another sign that our country is becoming a very different country even as we watch. 

WILLIAMS:  Yeah, that trickle has become a tsunami and it‘s not a Tsunami that is here to become Americans or to assimilate and contribute the best of their culture and add it to what we‘ve got here.  We‘re talking about a group by and large the illegal immigrants mainly, who are just here to rip off a piece and to get back to wherever they came from.  We‘re talking about drug runners, human traffickers, we‘re talking about people who engage in slavery and prostitution.  We‘re talking about yeah the occasional honest agriculture worker.  But by and large we‘re not talking about people who are coming here to become American.  That‘s why in southern California we‘re seeing the rise of this (INAUDIBLE) movement which is a heavily armed separatist organization, movement, which allies itself with the Palestinian liberation organization, of all groups.  They seem themselves as the North American Palestinians. We‘re dealing with a cultural rift that unlike past waves of immigration, doesn‘t wish to be assimilated and absorbed, much less will work with us toward making it one country.  Here in California I‘m having to learn how to speak Spanish to deal with my own neighborhood. 

CARLSON:  You and many others.  Sam, I want you to sum it up here.  Why is it that the environmental industry, environmental groups, the permanent environmental class of activists in this country, hasn‘t said anything that I‘ve heard about the 300 millionth American.  What about overpopulation? Weren‘t liberals really afraid of that 20 years ago? Are we no longer afraid of (INAUDIBLE) theories?

GREENFIELD:  Well, the only, I haven‘t heard that liberals are afraid of procreation.  Last time I checked we‘re not.  And Tucker, you‘ve added three kids to the population. 

CARLSON:  Four.

GREENFIELD:  Four?  God, I turn my back and holy cow, literally.

CARLSON:  Check in next week.

GREENFIELD:  It‘s now.  No, but what I‘m saying is this, you know a lot of these people do come to this country to be Americans and they do come to this country to earn a living.  They come to this country because they are poor.  But I do agree that illegal immigration is a serious, serious problem.  And I have no idea how to address it.  I‘m not going to lie, I have no idea.  As far as Mark learning another language, you know, we‘re the only country on this planet where people don‘t know two or three languages.  So what I say to you is, Buenos tardes, que (INAUDIBLE) mi amigo.

WILLIAMS:  And I say so long as we have the ICBM  -- 

GREENFIELD:  -- is Geraldo Rivera is slap happy.

WILLIAMS:  As long as we have the ICBM‘s they can learn English.

CARLSON:  Thank you both, I appreciate it. 

GREENFIELD:  Thank you Tucker.

CARLSON:  Well the Duke rape hoax unravels in front of a national “60 Minutes” audience last night. The accuser‘s family says CBS, it‘s just part of the media conspiracy against her.  Can we finally throw this case out, finally? Plus, a new study shows married people are now officially in the minority in America.  So does the decline of marriage mean a decline of western civilization? We will discuss that when we come right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CARLSON:  An airline employee is forced by the company to remove her crucifix, but Muslim employees are allowed to wear their turbans.  How does that work exactly?  Plus, Madonna‘s trendy adoption of an African child gets complicated.  Will she have to do without this year‘s hottest accessory?  We‘ll tell you when we come back in 60 seconds.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CARLSON:  Time for a look at today‘s stories I just don‘t get.  First up, the case of a British Airways employee with a legal cross to bear.  Well it may bill itself as the world‘s favorite airline, but right now British Airways isn‘t flying high with Christians.  That‘s because the company has suspended one of its London based employees for refusing to remove a crucifix while on the job.  The airline is accusing her of violating the dress code, she‘s accusing the airline of religious discrimination. She notes that British Airways does allow Muslim and (INAUDIBLE) worshippers to wear religious garb, but just not Christians.  This is an airline based in a predominantly Christian country at the very heart of Christian western civilization, but it bars the display of Christian symbols and not of Muslim symbols.  Why is that?  Because we hate ourselves.  That‘s right.  We hate ourselves, we are masochistic, we actively seek the destruction of our own civilization and our own culture.  Why do we do that?  Who knows?  We‘re going to get what we wish for though unfortunately if we don‘t knock it off.

Next, why married couples are being outnumbered by the try before you buy crowd.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE:  What is the rush to get married?  It‘s more of a title than anything and we are enjoying our time just as a married couple would, without the official title. And when the time is right, then we‘ll go ahead and take that next step.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON:  Meet Michelle Cope and her boyfriend John Shepherd.  They live together and have no immediate plans to tie the knot, and they are not alone.  In fact, unmarried couples now rule the roost at 51 percent of all American households.  Married couples on the other hand now account for just 49 percent of households.  The trend is the result of more women working who don‘t need a marriage to afford a home.  A higher number of openly gay couples and straight couples who simply want to take longer test drives before strolling down the aisle.  Is this good or bad?  But here‘s what is bad.  The number of children being born out of wedlock.  One thing to live together if you‘re not married, another thing to have children.  Here are the numbers, in 1975, 14 percent of children born in this country were born to unwed mothers.  In 2004, it was 36 percent.  That number has moved more than almost any number describing behavior of Americans.  The number of children born out of wedlock.  That‘s a tragedy.  That will destabilize this country in the long run more than almost anything.

Finally, a new accusation in the Duke University rape case. 

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Do you ever think that if this does go to trial, that if you are convicted you could face a lot of time in prison.  Do you ever think about that?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  I do, sure.  Thirty years, I could go to jail for something that never happens, based on a lie. 

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON:  That “60 Minutes” interview has sparked the outrage of the alleged victim‘s cousin.  She claims it‘s all part of a conspiracy by the defense team to intimidate her cousin so that she‘ll drop rape charges against three lacrosse players.  The accuser, a stripper, says it happened during an off campus party last March.  But a fellow stripper who was also there, tells “60 Minutes” that rape story is a crock.  And she is joined in that by almost every single responsible adult who has looked carefully at this case.  It is almost impossible to book a segment on this case because we can‘t find a sane person to take the other side of the debate.  We can‘t find an adult who is not locked up or incapacitated to come on this show and tell us why this case ought to still be going toward trial.  Because everybody who looks at it, reaches the conclusion, you can‘t help but reach the conclusion that this is a hoax.  Please, someone put an end to it.  Well it‘s one of the ugliest sports incidents in memory.  An out of control brawl erupts during a major college football game.  We‘ll tell you who is paying the price for this wild scene when we come right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CARLSON:  Welcome back.  Before we go any further, very quickly, a bit of mildly breaking news.  Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid has conceded that he has used federal campaign money, money he‘s gotten from doors, to pay Christmas bonuses to the staff at the condominium complex where he lives.  This is a violation of federal election law and he is apparently returning the money.  Now to Willie Geist.  Willie?

WILLIE GEIST:  Tough day for Mr. Reid, I guess.  Wow.  Tucker, I want to start by talking to you about Madonna.  

CARLSON:  Ok. 

GEIST:  She has gone to Malawi as you know to adopt a child and things are getting a little weird.  As far as I‘m concerned when you adopt a child, you probably don‘t have your bodyguards take the baby and whisk it away on a private jet, but that is reportedly what has happened.  The plane was seen leaving Malawi today and then going to South Africa and then leaving South Africa and going to London.  And reports say that it was Madonna and a baby that she—and these human rights groups are disputing, they‘re saying that she used her money and her power and for that reason, she shouldn‘t get to adopt a baby.  Where meanwhile she is giving millions of dollars and she wants to give the baby a better life, so, any way.  They‘re disputing this odd—she is doing it kind of surreptitiously I think.  

CARLSON:  Do we have any idea Willie why she went to Malawi to adopt a baby?

GEIST:  Because it‘s trendy, Tucker.  You go to Africa if you‘re a Hollywood starlet and you get yourself a baby over there, that‘s why.  I don‘t know why specifically Malawi, but that‘s kind of what‘s cool in Hollywood these days.  

CARLSON:  Over my head. 

GEIST:  In other news, Tucker, huge brawl, I‘m sure you saw this, if you were watching college football for 18 hours like I was on Saturday, Miami of Florida playing not really a rival, a new team, Florida International University.  After an extra point, one of the worst brawls and I‘ve covered and followed sports for a long time.  One of the worst, ugliest brawls I‘ve ever seen, they just resort to street fighting.  A lot of these guys, both schools in Miami, grew up playing high school football near each other in Dade County and it gets really ugly.  You see there a guy hitting somebody with a helmet he is taking off his head.  They‘re kicking people, stomping them.  Today the University of Miami Board of Trustees met.  Larry Coker the Hurricanes coach will keep his job.  Thirty one players have been suspended and things are bound to get much worse.  Tucker, like I said, as bad as I have seen. 

CARLSON:  Really?

GEIST:  Yeah. 

CARLSON:  I mean what do I know about football?  But it doesn‘t seem that much more violent than a football game and less violent than a lot of hockey matches I‘ve seen.  

GEIST:  Well it‘s usually just posturing where people woof at each other, but this was a real fight.  And finally, one other item for you today Tucker and this is a very strange one out of India.  Ramu the monkey, yes an 8-year-old monkey named Ramu has been jailed.  He‘s eight years old, he‘s been thrown in jail and he started a little bit of religious tension.  He is owned by a Muslim man, he bit a Hindu boy.  This monkey has been in and out of jail for five years the report says. And Ramu just has to clean up his act and frankly this is exactly why three strikes and you‘re out was created for guys like this.  Let‘s put him behind bars for good where he belongs before he hurts somebody else.  No more catch and release on these criminals. 

CARLSON:  You‘re a hard man Willie Geist, with a heart of stone. 

GEIST:  Tough on crime.

CARLSON:  Thank you for the update.   

GEIST:  All right Tucker.

CARLSON:  That‘s our show.  Thanks for watching, up next, “HARDBALL WITH CHRIS MATTHEWS.”  See you tomorrow.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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