The Mason-Dixon Virginia Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from October 17 through October 19, 2006. A total of 625 registered voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated that they were likely to vote in the November general election.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or racial grouping.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 310 (50%) Women 315 (50%)
Whites 526 (84%) Blacks 92 (15%) Other 7 (1%)
REGION
Northern Virginia 165 interviews
Shenandoah/Piedmont 90 interviews
Richmond Metro 90 interviews
Hampton Roads 130 interviews
Lynchburg/Southside 75 interviews
Roanoke/Southwestern Virginia 75 interviews
ALLEN OPENS NARROW LEAD,
ALLEGED RACIAL REMARKS NOT IMPORTANT TO MOST VOTERS
Incumbent Republican Senator George Allen has opened a slight lead over Democratic challenger Jim Webb in his re-election race, but the race remains very competitive. Allen’s slump has appeared to have hit bottom and rebounded some, as most Virginia voters indicate that alleged racial slurs he may have used as a student at the University of Virginia are not going to be an important factor in their voting decision.
Statewide, 47% of likely voters currently support Allen, while 43% back Webb, 2% are for independent Gail Parker and 8% are undecided. In late September, Webb had pulled into a 43%-43% tie with Allen, amidst the charges of Allen’s past behavior.
SENATE VOTE ALLEN WEBB PARKER UNDECIDED
July 2006 48% 32% N/A 20%
September 2006 46% 42% N/A 12%
Late September 2006 43% 43% 2% 12%
October 2006 47% 43% 2% 8%
Allen still leads in the rural most regions of the state, and the Richmond metro area, while Webb is ahead in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Allen leads among men (49%-41%), while the race is even (45%-45%) among women.
Allen could still be hampered by President Bush’s continued mixed job rating – which remains at 42% positive -- and the 45%-43% plurality that would rather see Democrats control of the U.S. Senate.
BUSH JOB PERFORMANCE EXC GOOD FAIR POOR UND
March 2001 14% 44% 27% 13% 2%
December 2003 22% 34% 21% 23% -
September 2004 24% 32% 15% 28% 1%
October 2004 24% 34% 17% 25% -
September 2005 12% 30% 20% 37% 1%
July 2006 14% 29% 15% 41% 1%
September 2006 14% 28% 16% 41% 1%
October 2006 17% 25% 18% 38% 2%
Bush’s handling of Iraq remains a handicap for Allen (51% disapprove), but the President’s handling of the economy (54% approve) and the war on terror (57% approve) may offer some areas of strength.
Allen’s personal popularity with state voters is still an issue. While Allen’s favorable name recognition has stopped falling, his unfavorable name recognition continued to increase 32% to 39%.
ALLEN NAME REC FAV UNFAV NEUT DR
June 1992 13% 5% 27% 55%
January 1993 19% 8% 37% 36%
May 1993 18% 8% 38% 36%
June 1993 23% 12% 36% 29%
August 1993 32% 18% 34% 16%
September 1993 39% 24% 31% 6%
October 1993 44% 24% 29% 3%
November 1993 50% 25% 25% -
January 1994 45% 17% 36% 2%
March 1994 49% 16% 34% 1%
January 1995 43% 24% 22% 1%
July 1995 49% 24% 26% 1%
October 1995 48% 29% 22% 1%
February 1998 64% 16% 19% 1%
June 1999 56% 15% 26% 3%
September 1999 59% 13% 26% 2%
July 2000 52% 22% 23% 3%
September 2000 49% 29% 20% 2%
October 2000 47% 35% 20% 1%
November 2000 48% 34% 17% 1%
July 2005 51% 23% 23% 3%
July 2006 49% 23% 25% 3%
September 2006 41% 31% 27% 1%
Late September 2006 ** 40% 32% 27% 1%
October 2006 42% 39% 18% 1%
Webb’s favorable name recognition has increased only slightly over the past few weeks, but his unfavorable recognition jumped from 20% to 28%.
WEBB NAME REC FAV UNFAV NEUT DR
July 2006 21% 11% 35% 33%
September 2006 28% 7% 43% 22%
Late September 2006 ** 31% 20% 41% 8%
October 2006 34% 28% 33% 5%
The impact of the allegations about Allen’s use of racial slurs while a student at the University of Virginia over 30 years ago seem to have faded with state voters. They are divided over whether or not the charges are true, with 30% feeling they are true, 28% feeling they are false and 42% not sure or not caring. Only 15% said the charges had any importance in their voting decision, 83% indicated they were not important.
Allen is in slightly better shape than he was a few weeks ago, however, his re-election is hardly guaranteed. He continues to run under the 50% threshold and his personal popularity is far more mixed now than it was just a few months ago. Most of the damage has been self-inflicted, but there is also a degree of anti-Republican sentiment present this year in this generally Red State.
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION
I am going to read you a list of names.
The first name is _____________. Do you recognize that name?
(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?
RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE
George Allen 42% 39% 18% 1%
Jim Webb 34% 28% 33% 5%
QUESTION: If the 2006 election for Virginia’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for:
- Jim Webb, Democrat
- George Allen, Republican
- Gail Parker, Independent Green Party
WEBB ALLEN PARKER UNDECIDED
STATE 43% 47% 2% 8%
REGION WEBB ALLEN PARKER UNDECIDED
Northern Virginia 50% 40% 2% 8%
Shenandoah/Piedmont 38% 53% - 9%
Richmond Metro 36% 53% 3% 8%
Hampton Roads 47% 42% 2% 8%
Lynchburg/Southside 40% 53% 1% 6%
Roanoke/Southwest 41% 48% 1% 10%
SEX WEBB ALLEN PARKER UNDECIDED
Men 41% 49% 2% 8% Women 45% 45% 2% 8%
RACE WEBB ALLEN PARKER UNDECIDED
White 37% 55% 2% 6% Black 78% 4% 1% 17%
PARTY ID WEBB ALLEN PARKER UNDECIDED
Democrats 80% 8% 1% 11% Republicans 7% 90% - 3% Independents 46% 39% 5% 10%
UNDECIDED
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS VOTERS
DEMOCRATS 45% 39% 51% 96% 4% 41% 43%
REPUBLICANS 43% 49% 37% - 90% 35% 24%
NOT SURE 12% 12% 12% 4% 6% 24% 33%
QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of George W. Bush as president: excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
EXCELLENT 17% 18% 16% 1% 37% 11%
GOOD 25% 27% 23% 5% 46% 23%
FAIR 18% 16% 20% 20% 13% 22%
POOR 38% 37% 39% 72% 4% 41%
UNDECIDED 2% 2% 2% 2% - 3%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq?
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
APPROVE 43% 47% 39% 10% 77% 37%
DISAPPROVE 51% 50% 52% 88% 13% 55%
NOT SURE 6% 3% 9% 2% 10% 8%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the economy?
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
APPROVE 54% 55% 53% 12% 94% 51%
DISAPPROVE 39% 38% 40% 78% 5% 39%
NOT SURE 7% 7% 7% 10% 1% 10%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the war on terror?
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
APPROVE 57% 59% 55% 21% 97% 50%
DISAPPROVE 37% 36% 38% 67% 2% 44%
NOT SURE 6% 5% 7% 12% 1% 6%
QUESTION: Senator George Allen has been accused of using racial slurs over thirty years ago, while a student at the University of Virginia. Do you believe these accusations are true or false?
UNDECIDED
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS VOTERS
TRUE 30% 29% 31% 43% 16% 31% 29%
FALSE 28% 31% 25% 8% 50% 23% 10%
NOT SURE 42% 40% 44% 49% 34% 46% 61%
QUESTION: How important of a factor are these accusations in your voting decision in this year’s U.S. Senate race? Are they very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all?
UNDECIDED
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS VOTERS
VERY IMP 10% 11% 9% 16% 5% 11% 5%
SW IMP 5% 4% 6% 6% 2% 8% 13%
NOT TOO IMP 26% 23% 29% 33% 16% 26% 27%
NOT IMP AT ALL 57% 60% 54% 41% 77% 52% 48%
NOT SURE 2% 2% 2% 4% - 3% 7%