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updated 10/24/2006 6:05:28 AM ET 2006-10-24T10:05:28

MSNBC - McClatchy Pennsylvania Poll October 2006

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This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from October 18 through October 21, 2006. A total of 625 registered Pennsylvania voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers.

A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping.

Do you recognize the name ______?

(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

If the 2006 Governor’s election were held today, would you vote for:

RENDELL 56%

SWANN 35%

UNDECIDED 9%

If the 2006 Senate election were held today, would you vote for:

CASEY 51%

SANTORUM 39%

OTHER 3%

UNDECIDED 7%

Will your vote for Senate mainly be:

FOR CANDIDATE 65%

AGAINST OPPONENT 32%

NOT SURE 4%

Do you approve or disapprove of George W. Bush’s overall job performance as President? (Is that, strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove?)

STRONGLY APPROVE 22%

SOMEWHAT APPROVE 21% (TOTAL APPROVE: 43%)

SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 10%

STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 46% (TOTAL DISAPPROVE: 56%)

NOT SURE 1%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? (Is that, strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove?)

STRONGLY APPROVE 1%

SOMEWHAT APPROVE 27% (TOTAL APPROVE: 28%)

SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 25%

STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 38% (TOTAL DISAPPROVE: 63%)

NOT SURE 9%

Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are heading in the right direction, or are they are off on the wrong track?

RIGHT DIRECTION 27%

WRONG TRACK 63%

NOT SURE 10%

Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in determining your vote for Senate this year: (ORDER ROTATED)

IRAQ 29%

HEALTH CARE 16%

MORAL/FAMILY 12%

TERRORISM/SECURITY 11%

ECONOMY/JOBS 11%

OTHER/DK 9%

IMMIGRATION 6%

TAXES/GOVT SPNDG 6%

GAS PRICE/ENERGY 1%

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the Bush administration’s policies in Iraq? (Is that strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove?)

STRONGLY APPROVE 18%

SOMEWHAT APPROVE 17% (TOTAL APPROVE: 34%)

SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 12%

STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 48% (TOTAL DISAPPROVE: 60%)

NOT SURE 6%

What should the U.S. do in Iraq: Send more troops, keep the same number of troops, withdraw some troops, or withdraw all troops?

SEND MORE 16%

KEEP SAME 15%

WITHDRAW SOME 23%

WITHDRAW ALL 25%

NOT SURE 21%

How worried are you about the direction of the nation’s economy in the next few years? (Are you very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?)

VERY WORRIED 23%

SOMEWHAT WORRIED 42% (TOTAL APPROVE: 66%)

NOT TOO WORRIED 23%

NOT WORRIED 11% (TOTAL DISAPPROVE: 34%)

NOT SURE 0.3%

How worried are you that there will be another major terrorist attack in the U.S.? (Are you very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?)

VERY WORRIED 21%

SOMEWHAT WORRIED 49% (TOTAL APPROVE: 69%)

NOT TOO WORRIED 20%

NOT WORRIED 11% (TOTAL DISAPPROVE: 31%)

NOT SURE 0.2%

Do you think the speaker of the House of Representatives, Dennis Hastert, should step down as speaker because of the way the Mark Foley issued was handled, or should he remain in his job? (ROTATED)

STEP DOWN 40%

REMAIN 36%

NOT SURE 24%

Which of the following best describes your family's financial situation in the past few years: You have had enough money to maintain your standard of living, or you feel as if you have fallen behind?

HAVE ENOUGH 61%

FALLING BEHIND 38%

NOT SURE 1%

DEMOGRAPHICS:

What is your current official party voter registration? Are you registered to vote as a:

DEMOCRAT 49%

REPUBLICAN 40%

INDEPENDENT 12%

Would you describe your personal political views as liberal, moderate, or conservative?

LIBERAL 23%

MODERATE 41%

CONSERVATIVE 35%

DK/REF 1%

What is your age?

18-34 13%

35-49 27%

50-64 33%

65+ 27%

REF 0.3%

Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?

WHITE 86%

BLACK 12%

HISPANIC 1%

OTHER 1%

REFUSED 1%

SEX:

MALE 48%

FEMALE 52%

REGION:

SOUTHWEST PA 8%

PHILADELPHIA CO 11%

ALLEGHANY CO 12%

WESTERN PA 15%

CENTRAL PA 16%

NORTHEAST PA 17%

PHILADELPHIA SUBS 21%

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