The Mason-Dixon Tennessee Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from November 1 through November 3, 2006. A total of 625 registered Tennessee voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.
Do you recognize the name ______________?
(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL DON'T RECOGNIZE
GOVERNOR
Phil Bredesen 61% 12% 24% 3%
Jim Bryson 30% 16% 41% 13%
U.S. SENATE
Bob Corker 47% 33% 17% 3%
Harold Ford, Jr. 39% 44% 15% 2%
If the 2006 election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:
- Phil Bredesen, Democrat
- Jim Bryson, Republican
- or, one of the other candidates?
SEX REGION PARTY ID
STATE MEN WOMEN EAST MIDDLE WEST DEM REP IND
BREDESEN 61% 60% 62% 56% 63% 64% 87% 36% 63%
BRYSON 26% 29% 23% 30% 24% 24% 4% 51% 19%
OTHER 4% 3% 5% 5% 3% 4% 3% 5% 5%
UNDECIDED 9% 8% 10% 9% 10% 8% 6% 8% 13%
If the 2006 election for Tennessee’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for:
- Harold Ford, Democrat
- Bob Corker, Republican
- or, one of the other candidates?
SEX REGION PARTY ID
STATE MEN WOMEN EAST MIDDLE WEST DEM REP IND
CORKER 50% 52% 48% 61% 47% 39% 6% 91% 47%
FORD 38% 34% 42% 26% 42% 49% 81% 4% 32%
OTHER 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% 4% 1% 6%
UNDECIDED 9% 11% 7% 9% 8% 10% 9% 4% 15%
RACE
STATE WHITES BLACKS
CORKER 50% 58% 2%
FORD 38% 30% 89%
OTHER 3% 3% -
UNDECIDED 9% 9% 9%
Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in determining your vote for U.S. Senate this year:
Iraq 21%
Health care, including Medicare 18%
Moral issues & Family values 17%
Terrorism & Homeland Security 13%
The Economy & Jobs 7%
Immigration 7%
Government Spending & Taxes 5%
Gas Prices & Energy Policy 3%
Other/Not Sure 9%
Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to the war in Iraq – Bob Corker or Harold Ford?
CORKER 49%
FORD 32%
NEITHER/DK 19%
Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to energy and gas prices - Bob Corker or Harold Ford?
CORKER 43%
FORD 36%
NEITHER/DK 21%
Who do you feel would do a better job at handling the issues related to the economy - Bob Corker or Harold Ford?
CORKER 53%
FORD 34%
NEITHER/DK 13%
How would you rate the performance of George W. Bush as President: excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
SEX REGION PARTY ID
STATE MEN WOMEN EAST MIDDLE WEST DEM REP IND
EXC 15% 17% 13% 21% 9% 14% 2% 26% 17%
GOOD 32% 35% 29% 33% 31% 32% 10% 53% 30%
FAIR 19% 17% 21% 18% 19% 22% 16% 20% 21%
POOR 33% 30% 36% 27% 40% 31% 71% 1% 30%
UNDECIDED 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 2%
Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are heading in the right direction, or are they are off on the wrong track?
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
RIGHT 40% 43% 37% 13% 73% 27%
WRONG 47% 47% 47% 79% 13% 56%
NOT SURE 13% 10% 16% 8% 14% 17%
Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq?
SEX PARTY ID
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
APPROVE 44% 48% 40% 8% 76% 44%
DISAPPROVE 51% 49% 53% 90% 20% 47%
NOT SURE 5% 3% 7% 2% 4% 9%
What should the U.S. do in Iraq:
Send more troops 22%
Keep the same number of troops 19%
Withdraw some troops 17%
Or, withdraw all troops? 21%
Not Sure 21%
How would you describe the tone of the U.S. Senate campaign between Democrat Harold Ford and Republican Bob Corker? Is it currently:
1% - Positive, with little or no negative campaigning
7% - Somewhat positive, but with some negative campaigning,
21% - Somewhat negative, but not as negative as most other Tennessee Senate races,
65% - Very negative, as bad as or worse than in other elections.
6% - Not Sure
Who do you feel has run a more negative campaign:
Republican Bob Corker 27%
Democrat Harold Ford 12%
Or, have both been about equally negative 57%
Not Sure 4%
Have you seen the television advertisement that mentions Harold Ford’s attendance at a Super Bowl party that featured Playboy bunnies and ends with a blonde-haired woman saying “Harold, call me?”
YES 81%
NO 19%
(IF “YES) Would you describe your opinion of the ad as favorable, unfavorable, or neutral?
FAVORABLE 4%
UNFAVORABLE 67%
NEUTRAL 29%
(IF “YES) Would you say that the ad makes you more likely to vote for Bob Corker, more likely to vote for Harold Ford, or does it have no real effect on your vote?
FORD 10%
CORKER 23%
NO EFFECT 67%
In terms of your political party identification, do you generally consider yourself a:
DEMOCRAT 34%
REPUBLICAN 38%
INDEPENDENT OR OTHER 28%