The Mason-Dixon Montana Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from October 31 through November 2, 2006. A total of 625 registered Montana voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn out by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a region or gender grouping.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
SEX:
Male 311 (50%)
Female 314 (50%)
REGION:
Eastern Montana 55 interviews
Billings 125 interviews
Great Falls 105 interviews
Butte/Helena 160 interviews
Missoula/Kalispell 180 interviews
Do you recognize the name _____________?
(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL DON’T RECOGNIZE
Jon Tester 44% 40% 15% 1%
Conrad Burns 44% 42% 13% 1%
Stan Jones 7% 10% 22% 61%
If the 2006 election for Montana’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you for:
- Jon Tester, Democrat
- Conrad Burns, Republican
- Stan Jones, Libertarian Party
BURNS TESTER JONES UNDECIDED
STATE 47% 47% 1% 5%
REGION BURNS TESTER JONES UNDECIDED
Eastern Montana 57% 38% - 5%
Billings 52% 42% 1% 5%
Great Falls 45% 48% 1% 6%
Butte/Helena 38% 56% 1% 5%
Missoula/Kalispell 49% 45% 1% 5%
SEX BURNS TESTER JONES UNDECIDED
Men 54% 41% 1% 4%
Women 40% 53% 1% 6%
PARTY ID BURNS TESTER JONES UNDECIDED
Democrats 8% 88% - 4%
Republicans 89% 6% - 5%
Independent 37% 52% 3% 8%
Regardless of how you are voting in the U.S. Senate race, please tell me which candidate – Conrad Burns, Jon Tester or Stan Jones -- you feel would do a better job handling each of the following issues:
- The war in Iraq & National Security issues?
BURNS 47%
TESTER 45%
JONES 1%
NOT SURE 7%
- Health care issues?
TESTER 46%
BURNS 41%
JONES 1%
NOT SURE 12%
- Agriculture and farm issues?
TESTER 50%
BURNS 42%
JONES -
NOT SURE 8%
- The federal budget, taxes and economic issues?
BURNS 45%
TESTER 44%
JONES 1%
NOT SURE 10%
- Bringing federal money to Montana?
BURNS 51%
TESTER 36%
JONES 1%
NOT SURE 12%
- Gas prices and energy issues?
TESTER 50%
BURNS 31%
JONES 1%
NOT SURE 18%
- Honesty in government and ethical issues?
TESTER 47%
BURNS 35%
JONES 2%
NOT SURE 16%
- Education issues?
TESTER 46%
BURNS 41%
JONES 1%
NOT SURE 12%
- Best represents your own views on the issues?
BURNS 46%
TESTER 45%
JONES 1%
NOT SURE 8%
- Has the personal qualities that make him more qualified to be senator.
BURNS 43%
TESTER 42%
JONES -
NOT SURE 15%