The Mason-Dixon Virginia Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from November 1 through November 3, 2006. A total of 625 registered voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated that they were likely to vote in the November general election.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or racial grouping.
SEX:
Male 306 (49%)
Female 319 (51%)
RACE:
Whites 520 (83%)
Blacks 96 (15%)
Other 9 (1%)
REGION:
Northern Virginia 165 interviews
Shenandoah/Piedmont 90 interviews
Richmond Metro 90 interviews
Hampton Roads 130 interviews
Lynchburg/Southside 75 interviews
Roanoke/Southwestern Virginia 75 interviews
Democrat Jim Webb leads Republican George Allen for the first time in the Virginia Senate race, although it is by a statistically insignificant one percentage point.
Statewide, 46% of likely voters currently support Webb, while 45% back Allen, 2% are for independent Gail Parker and 7% are undecided. Allen lead 47%-43% two weeks ago, but has failed to top 50% in any poll conducted this year.
SENATE VOTE ALLEN WEBB PARKER UNDECIDED
July 2006 48% 32% N/A 20%
September 2006 46% 42% N/A 12%
Late September 2006 ** 43% 43% 2% 12%
October 2006 47% 43% 2% 8%
November 2006 45% 46% 2% 7%
Allen still leads in the rural most regions of the state, and the Richmond metro area, while Webb is ahead in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Allen leads among men (49%-45%), while Webb leads among women (47%-41%).
Probably of most significance is the fact that Webb is dominating Allen among black voters, where he leads by a substantial 87%-6% margin. In his previous races Allen has typically been able to tap 12-15% of the black vote, but his racial controversies appear to have undermined his credibility with African-American voters in Virginia.
Allen’s personal popularity with state voters is still an issue. While Allen’s favorable name recognition bounced up slightly, his unfavorable name recognition continued to increase – going from 39% to 42% (a new high).
ALLEN NAME REC FAV UNFAV NEUT DR
June 1992 13% 5% 27% 55%
January 1993 19% 8% 37% 36%
May 1993 18% 8% 38% 36%
June 1993 23% 12% 36% 29%
August 1993 32% 18% 34% 16%
September 1993 39% 24% 31% 6%
October 1993 44% 24% 29% 3%
November 1993 50% 25% 25% -
January 1994 45% 17% 36% 2%
March 1994 49% 16% 34% 1%
January 1995 43% 24% 22% 1%
July 1995 49% 24% 26% 1%
October 1995 48% 29% 22% 1%
February 1998 64% 16% 19% 1%
June 1999 56% 15% 26% 3%
September 1999 59% 13% 26% 2%
July 2000 52% 22% 23% 3%
September 2000 49% 29% 20% 2%
October 2000 47% 35% 20% 1%
November 2000 48% 34% 17% 1%
July 2005 51% 23% 23% 3%
July 2006 49% 23% 25% 3%
September 2006 41% 31% 27% 1%
Late September 2006 ** 40% 32% 27% 1%
October 2006 42% 39% 18% 1%
November 2006 44% 42% 14% -
Webb’s favorable name recognition is actually lower than Allen’s but his negatives are not as high.
WEBB NAME REC FAV UNFAV NEUT DR
July 2006 21% 11% 35% 33%
September 2006 28% 7% 43% 22%
Late September 2006 ** 31% 20% 41% 8%
October 2006 34% 28% 33% 5%
November 2006 40% 32% 24% 4%
While a plurality of Virginia voters backs the Question 1 marriage amendment, support continues to decline and has dropped below 50%. There has been a striking shift against this amendment among black voters. Passage is now very much in question.
MARRIAGE AMENDMENT “YES” “NO” UNDECIDED
July 2006 56% 38% 6%
September 2006 54% 40% 6%
October 2006 52% 42% 6%
November 2006 49% 45% 6%
Do you recognize the name ____________?
(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?
FAV. UNFAV. NEUT. DON’T RECOGNIZE
George Allen 44% 42% 14% -
Jim Webb 40% 32% 24% 4%
If the 2006 election for Virginia’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for:
- Jim Webb, Democrat
- George Allen, Republican
- Gail Parker, Independent Green Party
WEBB ALLEN PARKER UNDECIDED
STATE 46% 45% 2% 7%
REGION WEBB ALLEN PARKER UNDECIDED
Northern Virginia 56% 36% 2% 7%
Shenandoah/Piedmont 38% 52% 2% 8%
Richmond Metro 37% 54% 2% 7%
Hampton Roads 50% 42% 2% 6%
Lynchburg/Southside 39% 51% 4% 7%
Roanoke/Southwest 43% 47% 1% 9%
SEX WEBB ALLEN PARKER UNDECIDED
Men 45% 49% 2% 4%
Women 47% 41% 2% 10%
RACE WEBB ALLEN PARKER UNDECIDED
White 39% 52% 2% 7%
Black 87% 6% 2% 5%
PARTY ID WEBB ALLEN PARKER UNDECIDED
Democrats 87% 6% 2% 5%
Republicans 10% 83% 1% 6%
Independents 45% 40% 5% 10%
Question Number 1 on the November ballot proposes to amend the Constitution of Virginia to state:
“That only a union between one man and one woman may be a marriage valid or recognized by this Commonwealth and its political subdivisions.
This Commonwealth and its political subdivisions shall not create or recognize a legal status for relationships of unmarried individuals that intends to approximate marriage. Nor shall this Commonwealth or its political subdivisions create or recognize another union, partnership, or other legal status to which is assigned the rights, benefits, obligations, qualities, or effect of marriage.”
If the election were held today, would you vote:
– “YES” to approve the amendment, or
– “NO” to defeat the amendment?
“YES” “NO” UNDECIDED
STATE 49% 45% 6%
REGION “YES” “NO” UNDECIDED
Northern Virginia 36% 60% 4%
Shenandoah/Piedmont 53% 41% 6%
Richmond Metro 52% 42% 6%
Hampton Roads 50% 46% 4%
Lynchburg/Southside 55% 35% 11%
Roanoke/Southwest 64% 29% 7%
SEX “YES” “NO” UNDECIDED
Men 54% 41% 5%
Women 44% 49% 7%
RACE “YES” “NO” UNDECIDED
White 51% 43% 6%
Black 38% 55% 7%
PARTY ID “YES” “NO” UNDECIDED
Democrats 24% 70% 6%
Republicans 74% 21% 5%
Independents 45% 46% 9%
Which political party would prefer to see in control of the U.S. Senate – the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
UNDECIDED
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS VOTERS
DEMOCRATS 47% 44% 50% 93% 8% 42% 42%
REPUBLICANS 45% 49% 41% 3% 87% 37% 25%
NOT SURE 8% 7% 9% 4% 5% 21% 33%
Regardless of how you are voting in the U.S. Senate race, please tell me which candidate – George Allen or Jim Webb -- you feel would do a better job handling each of the following issues:
- The war in Iraq & National Security issues?
WEBB 47%
ALLEN 40%
NEITHER/DK 13%
- Health care issues?
WEBB 44%
ALLEN 33%
NEITHER/DK 23%
- The federal budget, taxes and economic issues?
WEBB 43%
ALLEN 41%
NEITHER/DK 16%
- Immigration issues?
ALLEN 41%
WEBB 36%
NEITHER/DK 23%
- Honesty in government and ethical issues?
WEBB 41%
ALLEN 34%
NEITHER/DK 25%
- Education issues?
WEBB 42%
ALLEN 38%
NEITHER/DK 20%
- Moral issues and family values?
WEBB 42%
ALLEN 35%
NEITHER/DK 23%
In your view, did either of the candidates for U.S. Senate attack the other unfairly? (IF “YES”, do you feel _____________ attacked unfairly?)
No 14%
Jim Webb attacked unfairly 6%
George Allen attacked unfairly 12%
Both attacked unfairly 59%
Not sure 9%
How would you describe the tone of the U.S. Senate campaign between Democrat Jim Webb and Republican George Allen? Is it currently:
2% - Positive, with little or no negative campaigning
22% - Somewhat positive, but with some negative campaigning,
25% - Somewhat negative, but not as negative as most other Virginia Senate races,
47% - Very negative, as bad as or worse than in other elections.
4% - Not sure
Who do you feel has run a more negative campaign:
Republican George Allen 32%
Democrat Jim Webb 19%
Or, have both been about equally negative 45%
Not sure 3%