Intensive diplomatic efforts to agree the elements of a framework by the end of the year for a new global climate change treaty are starting to make headway, according to a European official close to the negotiations.
The tone of the debate has changed in the United States and Australia -- key nations which rejected the Kyoto Protocol on curbing greenhouse gas emissions -- and German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made it a top target of her presidency this year of the Group of Eight industrialized nations.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, with only months left in office and keen to find a positive legacy to offset the damage done by Iraq, is using his weight to help secure a deal.
He meets Merkel in Germany on Tuesday to discuss tactics.
"We need to work for agreement by the G8 plus five on the elements of a post-Kyoto framework including a global stabilization goal and a cap and trade system, a framework that includes not just the U.S. but also India and China," Blair's spokesman said on Monday.
Kyoto only runs to 2012 and -- given that it took two years to negotiate and eight more to bring into force -- there is an urgency to efforts to extend its life and expand its scope and membership.
Officials from industrialized and developing nations are holding behind-the-scenes talks trying to hammer out elements of the framework ahead of talks in Bali, Indonesia, in December.
'Tide is with us'
"We don't think it is in the bag, but we do think it is possible and we do think the tide is with us. I wouldn't put it any higher than 50/50 -- but that is still quite high," said an official with a European government in favor of renewing Kyoto.
Not everyone is convinced given that a meeting of U.N. environment ministers in Nairobi last November ended with the minimal expectations that the Bali meeting might only agree a mandate for talks.
"For Bali a mandate to find a replacement for Kyoto is a best case scenario," a U.N. official said.
"The current view is that it will take two years to negotiate a deal and then two years to ratify. Even that will be optimistic if you look at how long it took to ratify Kyoto."
Catherine Pearce, climate change expert at Friends of the Earth, said talks were moving very fast but there were no serious indications of a crucial change of heart in Washington.
"At the moment I am really quite skeptical. I get no sense that (President) Bush is about to move on this," she said.
Scientists predict that average global temperatures will rise by between 1.8 and 4.0 degrees Celsius this century because of burning fossil fuels, putting millions at risk from rising sea levels, floods, famines and violent weather.
Getting developing giants on board
The main reason for Washington and Canberra rejecting Kyoto was that it was not binding on big developing countries.
China, with an economy growing at around 10 percent a year, is developing an array of energy sources from renewables like wind and hydro to nuclear power. But it is also building a coal- fired power station every five days polluting the atmosphere.
The idea is that a replacement Kyoto would bring everyone into the fold but allow less stringent measures for developing nations than industrialized countries.
"We see a package which includes agreement around an emissions stabilization goal, a global cap and trade -- which could happen in a variety of ways -- measures on technology transfer, adaptation and deforestation," the European official said on condition of anonymity.
Britain put global warming at the top of the diplomatic agenda during its presidency of the G8 industrialized nations in 2005, and has worked to keep it there.
Efforts are under way to get the summit in Germany in June of the G8 plus five -- China, India, Mexico, Brazil and South Africa -- to agree the main elements of a post-2012 framework.
This would then be put to the Bali meeting.
"We think that is possible from our conversations with the Americans, the Chinese, the Indians. But it is not going to be easy," the European official said.