Guests: Lisa Caputo, Clinton campaign sr. advisor; Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-Pa.); Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter (D); Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.); Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.); Maria Teresa Petersen, Voto Latino; Governor Ed Rendell (D-Pa.); David Wilhelm, fmr. DNC chairman; Howard Wolfson, Clinton campaign communications director; Michelle Bernard, MSNBC political analyst; Howard Fineman, Newsweek sr. Washington correspondent & MSNBC political analyst Harold Ford, fmr. congressman (D-Tenn.) and NBC News analyst; Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s "Morning Joe”
KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: The twin parallel universes of the
Democratic Party intersect again, this time in the birth state of the nation.
For Barack Obama, anything better than a 36-64 percent loss for the rest of the
primaries beginning tonight in Pennsylvania. And his lead in delegates remains
untouched.
For Hillary Clinton, anything better than victory by handful and she
could gain the lead in votes cast. If you count Florida and if you count
Michigan and if you think the caucuses didn't short change Obama's vote
margin. Oh, and if you think the Democrats are going to choose not on
delegates, but on a sentence with four ifs in it. Five ifs, should you count
the latest bizarre controversy?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: When did I say
that and to whom did I say that?
REPORTER: On WHYY radio yesterday.
CLINTON: No, no, no. That's not what I said. I think that they
played the race card. Go back and see what the question was and what my answer
was. You’ve got to really go something to play the race card with me. My
office is in Harlem. You have mischaracterized it to get another cheap story.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
OLBERMANN: With Andrea Mitchell and Ron Allen covering the Clinton
campaign in Philadelphia. Lee Cowan at Obama headquarters in Evansville,
Indiana. Kevin Corke on voting irregularities watch. Kelly O'Donnell with the
McCain camp. The analysis of "Meet the Press" moderator Tim Russert. "NBC
Nightly News" anchor Brian Williams, political director Chuck Todd by the
numbers. Norah O'Donnell and the exit polls and NBC News special correspondent
Tom Brokaw.
The insiders, former Congressman Harold Ford and Joe Scarborough.
Howard Fineman and the campaign listening folks and David Gregory and the RACE
FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel, Rachel Maddow, Eugene Robinson and Pat Buchanan.
This is MSNBC’s coverage of the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential
primary.
And greetings from MSNBC and NBC News world headquarters at Rockefeller
Center in New York City. Alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann. You
know more about Pennsylvania than anybody since Ben Franklin retired. What do
we have?
CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: You know, I think it’s a battle in
Pennsylvania. We’ll see how it turns out. But I think it is a battle between
those that want change and those who want familiarity, predictability. I think
you’re going to see that in the vote tonight. Also between those who have big
hopes, idealistic hopes and those who have basic needs that have to be met.
It’s a classic struggle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton that we have
seen going on now for months.
OLBERMANN: Polls close at 8:00 Eastern. We will begin to get an
assessment of what’s happening at that point, we hope.
In the interim, our chief Washington correspondent Norah O’Donnell will
as always monitor the exit polls throughout the long evening ahead and is here
now with a preview of the first batch of sweets coming out of the
confectioner’s office.
NORAH O’DONNELL, MSNBC NEWS CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: And a
fascinating night I think we have ahead of us. It has been of course a hard-
fought battle in these final days. A lot of the fighting over who is most
electable in November. Well in our exit polls we found less than one in 10
voters think electability is important. In fact, nearly a majority say that
they want a candidate that will bring about change in November. We are going
to have more on that, about the new voters, lots of interesting information
coming out.
OLBERMANN: From our own experience, listening to the number it
apparently correlates to almost no degree with who you vote for. The change
number, right? It’s not an automatic new guy versus old person.
N. O’DONNELL: That's right. And we have traditionally have seen that
Barack Obama tends to win those voters who care most about change.
OLBERMANN: We will see how this turns out tonight. Norah, thank you.
We will get back to you in depth in a moment.
Let's get an early read from NBC’s Washington bureau chief, the
moderator of "Meet the Press," Tim Russert. Tim, good evening.
TIM RUSSERT, NBC WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Hi, Keith.
OLBERMANN: We are back here after six long weeks since the last one of
these. It makes tonight seem important. But what is it actually in here that
is important? Why specifically does Pennsylvania matter?
RUSSERT: Well as for Obama, it is the first time the voters will have
a chance to tell us what they think about Reverend Wright and the whole
comments that he made regarding clinging to faith and guns and being bitter and
so forth. What they think about Hillary Clinton. Whether she should be
staying in the race, whether or not she has a reasonable chance of the
nomination. You shake it all up, Keith, the bottom line is Hillary Clinton has
to emerge tomorrow with a rationale to continue her campaign. And that means
that she has -- can present to the super delegates and the remaining Democratic
primaries and caucuses a case which says "I will be a stronger nominee than
Barack Obama in the fall and this is why. I had so many more popular votes in
Pennsylvania. He did not do well with white voters, particularly white women.
I was able to demonstrate that he cannot close the deal." Obama has a chance
tonight to say "I’ve told you before, I am ahead in elected delegates, I’m
ahead in popular votes, I’m ahead in contests won. This race is going
forward. But the sooner we end it the better we can focus on John McCain."
OLBERMANN: She has said a win is a win. Her people have said a win is
a win. Is that literally the case? Is there going to be rationale whether it
is 20 points, 10 points or 11 votes?
RUSSERT: No. Democrats I talked to, Keith, even people who support
her campaign, will say we need a big win. Why? They are broke. They need to
raise money. And in order to go on, to North Carolina and to Indiana and
Kentucky and West Virginia, their campaign costs $1 million a day to run. They
have to hit the Internet tomorrow morning saying that this is alive and well,
support us, support us, support us. And pay for that campaign.
If she squeaks out a victory, the concern is with her own people, a lot
of voters, donors will say gee, is this worth continuing? And what about the
super delegates? Will they step in en masse and decide to end this by moving
quickly to Obama?
On the other hand if she has a considerable win, a big victory, double
digits or beyond, then she will I think raise the money to be competitive in
Indiana and North Carolina. And take it two weeks at a time.
OLBERMANN: My squeak is your landslide, Tim. Did you have a specific
number? Is there an over/under in this?
RUSSERT: You know, everybody keeps talking about is four or five
enough? Probably not. Is 10 to 12 enough? Absolutely. What if it is eight?
OLBERMANN: What if it is eight, Tim?
RUSSERT: Over to you, Keith.
OLBERMANN: Tim Russert. Ponder what if it is eight for the rest of
the evening, as we all are. Thank you, Tim.
RUSSERT: Thank you, sir.
MATTHEWS: OK, let's go right now and find out how big the spread has
to be. Let's check in with NBC News political director Chuck Todd. Chuck, you
were saying today, I believe, on the "Today" show, seven points might be the
spread. Might be the numbers that are given here for Hillary to beat.
CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: If this were a Vegas line, I
think that that's what the book makers would set it at. They would set it at
seven and say OK, you think she gets under or over. That's where you would get
the even amount of money I think from the betters.
MATTHEWS: Well let's talk about the people watching this. The super
delegates, the print guys, Ron Brownstein, the other really – let’s go back to
David Broder, the people that are going to say in two days, who won and lost.
If Hillary gets one to six tonight, according to you, they will declare her
having failed in her mission. Is that right?
TODD: That is, that is because in order to have narrowed that gap for
Obama, to only lose this in that kind of range, it means that he will have
improved upon his performance in Ohio. It means he would have done better with
some white working class voters. It means he would have proven that the
Reverend Wright stuff and the bitter stuff didn't cost him votes, that he
bought his way back into the good graces of the voters.
MATTHEWS: What does it take for Hillary Clinton to win appeal, to
upset the verdict of the first 44 primaries and caucuses?
TODD: A huge victory. A huge victory wouldn't be just winning the
voters she had been winning in Ohio. And granted that kind of big victory as
Tim was saying, you know, he joked about the eight. But something in those
double digits where all of a sudden, you know, she actually started winning
some suburbs votes, some suburban Philadelphia votes, a vote that a lot of
folks assumed would be Obama votes. Start cutting into his base a little bit.
Not just swapping him among white working class voters, but actually starting
to beat him among some of these college educated folks.
MATTHEWS: Is that why she made those incredible comments the other
night on Keith's show about what she is going to do to Iran if it makes a move
Israel? Was she really going for an ethnic vote there to try to counter that
suburban problem she has got?
TODD: I think she was going for a couple of things there. I think
this was talking to older voters, talking to veterans. When you look at the
makeup of both North Carolina and -- Pennsylvania and North Carolina and
Indiana, her voters are these older voters who are more attuned to some of
these international things potentially and maybe more willing to listen to some
of the fear card stuff.
MATTHEWS: Thanks for that line, Chuck, thank you very much.
Let's go now and check in with the Clinton campaign itself. NBC’s
Andrea Mitchell is at Clinton headquarters in Philadelphia. Andrea, are they
buying our notion of the line or rather Chuck's notion of a seven-point break
point? Anything less is a loss for her, seven is enough to say she won but she
needs to break out in double digits if she wants to start this campaign over
again?
ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Publicly, they are not buying
that. They are saying a win is a win. Even pointing out Barack Obama said
today that anything over 50 percent is a win for Senator Clinton.
So they are saying a win is win. That's what Hillary Clinton said
today in a brief press conference in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania. It’s what she
has said in satellite interviews. But they are clearly concerned. She has
done nine satellite television interviews this afternoon alone trying to get
out the vote.
And clearly they will be disappointed with anything that's three, or
four points if it does turn out to be that narrow because she won’t have the
momentum. She won't have the wind at her back as Bill Clinton said at her
final rally last night. She needs a big push out of here to go strong in
Indiana as they try to get the money rolling in again. Chris?
MATTHEWS: How do you read these comments By Bill Clinton today denying
something he said yesterday about accusing Barack Obama of playing the race
card, being caught on tape WHYY yesterday and radio denying it in the face of
all reality, that he had said that yesterday? And then having -- Senator
Clinton coming out and basically issuing an ultimatum to Tehran and saying
we’ll go to war with you if you go to war with Israel -- an amazing policy
statement, a few hours before an election. Are they desperate? Is this what's
going on? Are they rattled? What’s going on?
MITCHELL: I think the Bill Clinton thing is rattling because he was
very effective last night in the closing rally. And then it turns out that he
said on the local NPR station that he had not played the race card and even
suggested that the Obama camp had.
The Clinton people do have several memos from people inside the Obama
campaign suggesting all of this racial bias on Bill Clinton's part. He
obviously feels very deeply, very sensitively that this is unfair. He really
does not see what happened in South Carolina as a way a lot of other people do
see it, the way he’s been criticized for it.
So you know, when he was caught, it was an open mike, saying with the
profanity I can't, you know, get into trouble for what I just said, can I? And
then today when questioned about it, he bristled and it’s classic Bill
Clinton. You have the Bill Clinton last night with thousands of people on the
Palestra on the Penn campus, rousing the crowd and rallying people to his
wife's side and the Bill Clinton causing another controversy today.
The Clinton people will tell you that it does not matter. Mike Nutter,
the mayor said, look, this isn't important. People care about the gas prices.
But obviously, it was a distraction.
MATTHEWS: You know, a lot of people would rather get an occasional
true word even if they have to take a dirty one. Anyway, thank you Andrea, for
that report.
Barack Obama is spending the night in Indiana which holds its primary
two weeks from today. NBC’s Lee Cowan is in Evansville with the Obama
campaign. Lee, interesting spot for him to be tonight in receiving the
results.
LEE COWAN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think he is looking ahead,
Chris. I think that he knows that this isn't going to necessarily be the best
night for him. As you’ve been saying all night long, he thinks if he can get
close to Hillary Clinton, that is in some ways a victory, although he says he’s
certainly not happy about the fact that he is not going to get any more than 50
percent or they might not get any more than 50 percent.
So I think you’re focusing a lot of their attention here because they
know this is still very tight. He feels very comfortable with North Carolina.
It is not that he's not going to go down there and campaign pretty hard, but
this could be the next battleground state and because it is so similar in so
many ways, to Pennsylvania, in terms of the age of the voters for example, the
number of blue collar voters here as well, he knows that whatever showing he
does in Pennsylvania is going to give him a pretty good hint of how he may do
here. He's not taking anything for granted.
MATTHEWS: Why would he make a statement like Indiana will be decisive?
Politicians never do that. Why would he say this is the water loop for either
candidate?
COWAN: The phrase he uses is tiebreaker. I think he thinks this could
be coming out of Pennsylvania, if he does well here, he thinks it could be all
over. He thinks that he could prove that he has done well in some of the
states and if he does as -- as Chuck said, make inroads in some of those
constituents that particularly do well or usually go for Hillary Clinton, that
would be a victory for him. But, again, I don't think he said this will
necessarily be the end all be all, but it will be to some extent be a
tiebreaker.
MATTHEWS: OK thank you, Lee Cowan, who’s with the Barack campaign.
OLBERMANN: Now, let's get some of those early numbers as promised from
the early exit polling, the first batch. We can smell it from here, the
cookies are cooking out of the bakery and that’s the last time I use that
analogy, Norah O’Donnell.
N. O’DONNELL: Well, in our NBC News exit poll gives us an early look
at the importance of candidates personal qualities in the Pennsylvania
Democratic primary. Of course we asked voters to choose which quality was
important to them. We are seeing that in this primary, it is change that gets
the most votes, 49 percent. And that has been the hallmark of the Obama
campaign.
In fact, one in four were most concerned about the candidates'
experience, just 14 percent, cares about me. There it is that 8 percent, less
than one in 10 think that electability is important. And that has been the
pattern in previous races.
Obama's voters are the ones most looking for change. An overwhelming
73 percent say the ability to bring about needed change is just what they are
looking for. Far fewer mentioned anything else, 14 percent wanted a candidate
who cares about people like them, 8 percent are concerned about electability
and just 3 percent say it is experience that counts.
Now what about Clinton voters? Well, it is very different. Experience
is the quality they most value. Nearly half of Clinton voters say experience
is what they value most; 27 percent want a candidate that brings about change,
14 percent, someone who cares about them and just 9 percent say the key for
them is electability.
Again, that's among those Clinton voters. However when it comes to
just who they believe will be the Democratic nominee, more voters in the
Democratic primary feel it will be Barack Obama. But we should note in this
state, it is just a small majority. That is actually much smaller than we have
seen in those recent national polls.
And Chris and Keith, this is something I thought was so interesting.
It appears that about one in five Clinton voters in the state now feel that
Obama will be the nominee. That's among Clinton voters. Back to you guys.
OLBERMANN: All sorts of tea leaves to read. Thank you, Norah.
Here is another one. Let me ask you about this. If it’s an hour and
45 minutes or so before the polls close and one camp is already putting out e-
mails about how much money the other camp spent and how much exposure their
commercials got than their own candidates, is that an attempt to lower
expectations on the half, since that’s Senator Clinton's camp doing those e-
mails?
MATTHEWS: Yes, they are trying to say that if they don't do well it is
because they were outspent. I think you knew that would be my answer, Keith.
OLBERMANN: I'm trying to help.
MATTHEWS: No. Clearly you don't put out excuses if you are going to
win or if you’re going to meet expectations. But again, I really think the way
this is going to be played and as you know, never before in a political contest
has been so much focus put on the spread because this contest is essentially
over.
Barack Obama is going to win the most elected delegates. What is at
stake is the chance to go to appeals court. There is nothing like it in sports
where you appeal the whole regular season and say nothing counts now, I am
going to blow you away.
OLBERMANN: No. You go to the NCAA and get your college season
overturned by recruiting and such.
MATTHEWS: I think you also have surprises in the playoffs. But I
really do think it is a strange time because we are all watching to see who
won.
But as Norah pointed out, four out of five or so of the Hillary voters
today believe that she is still in the running, that this is still up in the
air. I think this was probably a mistake at the media.
I think in the effort of the media, trying to keep the game going, we
have created the delusion that somehow this race is still open. I don't think
it is open. I think if you look at the numbers, Barack has to really blow it
in the weeks ahead to lose this thing.
OLBERMANN: And you also have to have a definitional change. If you
count Florida, if you count Michigan, if you base it purely on popular votes.
MATTHEWS: If you ignore the rules of the Democratic Party.
OLBERMANN: Exactly, we go back and declare.
MATTHEWS: But if you work hard and play by the rules, the Clinton
maxim, then this election process is moving forward. Barack Obama is moving
towards the nomination.
OLBERMANN: Work very hard and change the rules. We will continue our
race to the white house panel. You will hear from both camps.
MATTHEWS: Modification.
OLBERMANN: About how they are feeling tonight. And in fairness, the
Obama camp is also tamping down expectations as you’ve already seen. It may be
who is being most conservative in their predictions tonight as we wait for
polls closing in Pennsylvania. You’re watching MSNBC’s coverage of the
Pennsylvania primary.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
OLBERMANN: We rejoin you with MSNBC's continuing coverage of the
Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Polls closing in Pennsylvania at 8:00
Eastern, about an hour and 39 minutes from now.
MATTHEWS: And now we want to introduce our panel for tonight. NBC’s
David Gregory, the "Washington Post’s" Eugene Robinson who is also an MSNBC
political analyst. An MSNBC political analysts as well, Pat Buchanan. And
Rachel Maddow of "Air America" radio, who is also an MSNBC political analyst.
David, take over.
DAVID GREGORY, MSNBC NEWS ANCHOR: All right guys, thank you very
much. As we do every night on RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE, welcome everybody. We
talk about the big headline of the day. We know what the headline is today.
It’s all about Pennsylvania. Patrick, what matters about Pennsylvania in this
race?
PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Hillary has to win Pennsylvania
even to keep going. If she wins Pennsylvania, the big question is why can't
Barack Obama close the sale? He lost Ohio, lost Texas. He lost Pennsylvania.
Even though he has got more endorsements, even though he’s got more money, even
though he ran more ads, what is the matter with Obama?
GREGORY: But if he gets close, Pat, if he gets close, he will have
closed a huge gap in this race.
BUCHANAN: Well, congratulations. You’ve got to start winning these
battles, though. I mean otherwise people ask questions. If McCain were losing
Pennsylvania now to Huckabee, people would be wondering, what's wrong with
McCain?
GREGORY: Rachel, your headline about today.
RACHEL MADDOW, AIR AMERICA HOST: Hillary Clinton said last night that
in the unlikely event she loses Pennsylvania, she will stay in the race in
order to see Florida and Michigan seated and taken care of. She will stay even
if she loses. Well on an interview that's due to air on my "Air America" radio
show today, Howard Dean says that Florida and Michigan will be settled by
June. So that means even in the worst-case scenario in terms of the Democratic
race not ending, even if Hillary Clinton stays in after losing Pennsylvania,
that Florida and Michigan issue will be settled by June, according to Howard
Dean.
GREGORY: But the issue here is only an electoral vote issue. Can she
close the gap when it comes to the popular vote, not the electoral vote? She
needs Florida and Michigan to do that. But she would still have to get a very
big victory tonight to even make those reasonable, to make them relevant.
MADDOW: And the popular vote is not within the rules of the Democratic
Party in terms of how they pick their nominee.
BUCHANAN: Puerto Rico looms large.
GREGORY: Gene Robinson, your headline, what matters about today?
EUGENE ROBINSON, WASHINGTON POST: What matters is that the process
continues with Barack Obama still in the lead. And I think it’s the over/under
Chuck Todd said seven points, seven-point victory for Hillary Clinton is good.
Anything less than that is not so good for her. It is good for Obama.
Seven points might be the number. Eight points might be the number.
Who knows exactly what it is? But we will be looking at the margin. We don't
expect an Obama victory. If that were to happen or if it were within a couple
of points, I think that we would end the night saying he had actually won.
BUCHANAN: We go on unless Hillary loses.
GREGORY: In a few seconds, though Pat, what do you look for tonight
that tells you something about how the race goes from here?
BUCHANAN: I think what you look at is, frankly, Pennsylvania, did
Barack really make inroads or was he hurt by the Reverend Wright? Was he hurt
by the bitter comment, the bigotry.
GREGORY: Does he have room to run in a state like Indiana where that
working class vote is very important?
BUCHANAN: If he loses Pennsylvania bad, he is in trouble in Indiana
because it’s bibles and guns.
ROBINSON: But look at the new voters. Look at the 300,000 new voters
in Pennsylvania. Who are they and where do they go. Good for Obama, bad for
Republicans.
GREGORY: A lot -- a lot more to come throughout the rest of the
night. Gentlemen, back to you.
OLBERMANN: Such a flashback. I’m back in sports again. It’s over,
unders and point spreads. Thank you, David.
When we return, two former members of Congress, a battle as it unfolds
this evening. Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford, they are "The Insiders." This
is MSNBC’s coverage of the Pennsylvania primary. He’s Mr. Outside, I’m Mr.
Inside or something like that.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back to MSNBC’s coverage of the Pennsylvania
primary. We go now to a new feature of the program, "The Insiders." Two former
members of the United States Congress, the host of MSNBC’S MORNING JOE, the
aforementioned Joe Scarborough. In Miami, MSNBC political analyst, former and
longtime U.S. congressman, Harold Ford Jr. They are the insiders. That’s how
we’ll call them.
The question both to you right now, why did Hillary Clinton's campaign
go so tough with this ad on the eve of this primary that raised the question
who can be president for another World War II? Another Cuban missile crisis?
Another Berlin Wall? Another bin Laden attack on the United States? Joe, you
first.
JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC ANCHOR: Well, it is because she’s behind. It’s
very simple. When you campaign and you are behind, nothing else is working,
you go negative. You go tough. You have to draw a contrast.
Campaigns are all about contrast if you are ahead, obviously, the
contrast is working for you. If you are behind, it is not. So you have to go
negative. If you are in Barack Obama's position, if you are ahead, if you are
ahead in delegates, if you’re ahead overall in the popular vote, well you stay
away from negative attacks and you take the high road and you say I'm far above
this. Of course, and you stay above it until you fall behind.
MATTHEWS: You know, congressman ford, I don't think of either of these
people in the context of Winston Churchill. I wonder whether they are setting
the bar too high for either of them to reach.
HAROLD FORD JR., FORMER CONGRESSMAN: Well I think two things. One,
they are still in the primary. As Joe knows when you find yourself at this
point in the game, you are trying your hardest not to damage your chances for
the fall, not give your opponent on the other side too much to use against
you.
But at the same time, you have got to differentiate yourself a little
bit from the Democrat or the Republican. In this case the Democrat you are
running against. I happen to think that Hillary Clinton's ad in a lot of ways
is looking ahead. She probably feels she is going to win tonight. I'm not
sure if she will win by the numbers that the pundits and others believe she has
to in order to sustain herself.
She is looking out of Indiana. The narrative in this campaign for her
has always been experience and electability, that she is ready on day one. So
she is trying her hardest with the ad, I would imagine, to hammer and reinforce
that point as much as she possibly can in the final hours of the Pennsylvania
race.
With only two weeks separating her and Barack from North Carolina and
Indiana, trying her hardest to do it there as well. Remember, North Carolina
has a big military and veterans population. As does Indiana. But certainly
North Carolina. So she is probably looking a little bit ahead. But first
things first, she has to do well tonight. I agree with Pat Buchanan. A big
win here is necessary to sustain this campaign.
MATTHEWS: Joe, suppose it is only a five-point spread for Hillary
tonight. If she only wins by five, how does she pump that up into looking like
double digits? If it's five, how does the other side, Barack, depress it down
to a loss for Hillary?
SCARBOROUGH: You know, the thing is with Hillary Clinton, in the end,
tonight is all about money. Forget the popular vote right now. Forget getting
Florida and Michigan in. The most important thing is that Barack Obama raises
41 million dollars last month. Hillary Clinton is in debt. She has to win by
double digits to be able to go on the Internet tomorrow and say, keep this
campaign alive. Your money is an investment that will pay you back.
If she wins by four, five percentage points, that's just not going to
be enough. It all comes down to money in the end. Unless Bill Clinton wants
to spend some of that 109 million dollars, this campaign is going to end
tonight if she doesn't win big.
MATTHEWS: Why not save your money and give it to the winner, if you're
a Clinton person? I don't see why you spend money, good money after bad at
this point? Would you, Harold?
FORD: If she does not do well tonight, she is not going to be able to
raise money. I agree wholeheartedly with Joe. I think, Chris, you said it
earlier -- this campaign now, her numbers, the margin is all about how much she
is able to raise tomorrow and the following day and give her the opportunity.
I think the number I heard was a million dollars a day that's being spent in
the campaign.
The Clintons, as we all know, are not quitters. Part of their success,
if not a huge part of their success in politics, has been that they have
identified a goal. They have stayed with a narrative and they have figured out
a way to resonate and connect with voters time and time again. So I don't
expect her to quit.
However, if this is a three, four, five point race tonight, I think
they all know, including the president and Mrs. Clinton herself, that there's a
big, big challenge for them going forward. It will be hard for them to raise
the kind of money to keep this campaign running at a level that it has run at
over the last few weeks.
MATTHEWS: I think six or seven will still be hard. But thank you very
much, Joe Scarborough, Harold Ford. You will be back throughout the tonight.
Let's go back -- up next, what Hillary Clinton must do to have a big night
tonight. That's the question. The numbers the question tonight, not winner or
loser but the question. We will be talking to Harold Wolfson of the Clinton
campaign. What's the number they need to reach tonight? You're watching
MSNBC's live coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back to be MSNBC's live coverage of the Pennsylvania
primary. Hillary Clinton lags Barack Obama in the delegate count, the number
of states won and the popular votes so far. She has a tough road ahead to make
up the difference in all those categories. NBC's political director Chuck Todd
is back with us by the numbers. Chuck, it is a tough, uphill road for Senator
Clinton.
TODD: It is. This is the last big state left. Of the ten contests,
this is the biggest one. That's why you are not even hearing any talk anymore
about delegates out of the Clinton campaign. The one place they cannot make
progress on is on the delegate count. But where they can make progress on is
on the popular vote.
They are down about 700,000. They are hoping to make the last big push
to really make a dent in this thing. They hope to net 200,000 out of
Pennsylvania. How do they do that? Out of two million voters that could show
up today, they would have to win it by ten points. Anything more than that,
suddenly that -- the amount of vote that they have netted goes over 200,000.
Keep track of that.
North Carolina, after this, they will probably lose votes. They are
going to lose ground in the popular in North Carolina. Indiana, her best case
is netting, as you see, 20,000 votes. West Virginia and then Kentucky later
on, she is likely to net a good chunk of vote out of there. But, really,
without the big victory in Pennsylvania, then there is no chance of her
catching up on the popular vote.
Let me go to the map here in Pennsylvania, and show you how she would
actually do this. If she did it, it means she would over-perform in the
Philadelphia suburbs down here, because this is where Obama is basically
looking at -- look at what Ed Rendell did in the 2002 gubernatorial campaign
against Bob Casey. The two big surrogates for the two campaigns, they ran
against each other. Rendell got all of his votes out of the six counties
surrounding Philadelphia plus Philadelphia. That was really it.
If Obama somehow mirrored the Rendell strategy, which is what he was
trying to do, then he would win this primary. It is tough to do. How does
Clinton net vote? She would have to over-perform in the suburbs, not just win
everywhere over here, like we expect her to do, and the smaller mid-sized
areas, Erie, Harrisburg, Scranton, up here, where we expect her to rack up
votes, but also in the Philadelphia suburbs.
One area in particular, Chris, is these excerpts. Rendell did very
well in the new suburbs of Philadelphia, Lancaster County, for instance, which
not everybody would have said was a suburb of Philadelphia 30 years ago. He
won it. Can Obama stay competitive there? Or does Clinton rack up a big
number there and actually eat into -- make the sort city of Philadelphia
Obama's base, rather than the Philadelphia media market.
OLBERMANN: Chuck, I have a question for you based entirely on what you
are talking about and what Governor Rendell said this afternoon. First,
prediction from any kind of principal or surrogate in this; he said, if the
turnout is even throughout the state, Clinton will win by six to ten. If the
turn out is heaviest in the Philly burbs, Clinton wins by four to six. Do you
like his methodology?
TODD: I do. It is funny, I was looking at the Rendell/Casey race, in
particular, to see what margin did Rendell get out of the city of
Philadelphia. He won the city of Philadelphia with 80 percent. If Obama gets
anywhere close to that, gets somewhere 65 percent, low 70s -- don't forget,
Rendell won by over ten points in his primary. So if Obama gets, say, 68
percent, 70 percent out of Philadelphia, then that could be enough to make up
the ground that Clinton succeeds in all the other parts of the state.
MATTHEWS: Thank you, Chuck. I think you are right about that. I
think he will get about 70 percent in the city. Howard Wolfson in the
communications director for the Clinton campaign. Howard, this is an
interesting fight because we put so much focus -- everyone has their different
market about what the spread ought to be. I said eight last night. I'm going
to try to stay out of it tonight. Chuck said seven is a good mark to look at.
If it is in the tricky area tonight, is it a battle of spin? Say it's
six points, your candidate wins, Senator Clinton wins by six tonight, is it
going to be a battle between you and Axelrod as to who really won?
HOWARD WOLFSON, CLINTON CAMPAIGN COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Well, I
agree with Senator Obama, who today said that 50-plus one constitutes a
victory, that he didn't come to Pennsylvania to lose, that he didn't come to
get 45 percent, and that 50-plus one is a victory. That's what we're shooting
for.
Look, Senator Obama spent more money in the Pennsylvania primary than
in the history of Pennsylvania politics. He out-spent us three to one. He ran
negative ads. He did pretty much everything he wanted to do in Pennsylvania,
in terms of communicating with voters. And if he can't beat us, outright beat
us, I think it will once again raise questions for the super delegates about
his ability to win in the large swing states that any Democrat needs to win to
pick up the victory against John McCain in November.
MATTHEWS: Didn't have you a special advantage? I think it is a very
successful campaign that Senator Clinton has ran in the state I grew up in.
The way that she was able to remind everybody that she spent her summers
growing up in Scranton, one of the older parts of the state, that her father
and brother played for Penn State, that she was able to move around among the
working people of Pennsylvania with great comfort, as a local girl. Somebody
said to me that she was walking around northeast Philly, where I did grow up as
a teenager, and seemed like the local girl, as they put it, one of the local
pols put it that way.
She does have that advantage, doesn't she, in Pennsylvania tonight?
WOLFSON: Well, I don't think that her ability to connect with working
people or blue collar voters is a special advantage. And I think that super
delegates, again, looking at this, are going to say do we want a nominee who
can pick up those Reagan Democrats, who can relate to blue collar voters, who
is consistently running ahead with that group, or do we want somebody who has
consistently had a hard time winning over blue collar voters?
We need those voters to beat John McCain in November. You know that.
OLBERMANN: I think it is a strong argument. Let me ask you about a
trickier thing. What do you make of Senator Clinton's comments with regard to
Iran? Very militant language about what she would do as commander in chief in
the face of an attack by Ahmadinejad on the state of Israel or any state in
that region? What do you make of that very pronounced, declarative statement
that she would retaliate in force?
WOLFSON: I don't think that there should be any ambiguity in Tehran
about the United States' position if they were to take offensive action against
Israel. That's called creating a deterrence. And by making that very clearly
and explicitly, we hope that will deter Iran from making any offensive gestures
towards Israel.
Look, the first goal of the next president will be to try to ensure
that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. Senator Clinton has said that we
won't engage in diplomacy with Iran in order to do that. But if, for whatever
reason Iran, has already nuclear weapons, or if they developed them in the
first years of the next presidency, we have to make it very clear that the
United States is going to stand four-square behind Israel, in the hopes that
that will create a deterrent towards Iran, so they do not act.
MATTHEWS: OK, thank you very much, Harold Wolfson. Good luck
tonight. Thanks for being with us.
OLBERMANN: David Wilhelm, former chairman of the Democratic National
Committee, now supporting Barack Obama for president; he joins us now. Thank
you for your time tonight, sir.
DAVID WILHELM, FMR. DNC CHAIR: Thanks for having me.
OLBERMANN: Are there -- were there marching orders for you surrogates
today? We just heard preliminary monetary figures from the Clinton camp. Is
there any percentage here, one way or the other, that the Obama camp can't call
a moral victory? Is there anything where somebody comes out and says, no, we
lost this one?
WILHELM: Yes, not that I know of, not that I have been briefed on. I
think the fair question is for the -- for Senator Clinton, if not here, where?
Pennsylvania has the second oldest electorate in the entire country, just
lagging behind Florida. It has a higher proportion of blue collar voters than
most states. She's the favorite daughter of the state. She has the backing of
the very popular governor, the mayors of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
If not here, where? She needs a fundamental game changer. I will
throw one out, 25 percent. That's what Senator Obama won Virginia by. That's
the kind of game changer that she needs to get into play. I have heard
discussion on this show tonight about seven percent. Seven percent, Barack
Obama is leading this thing by 170 delegates. It is a solid lead.
So I think you have to look at this thing in totality. We have
tonight's results. In two weeks, we'll have North Carolina and Indiana. I
think together, combined, they will elect more delegates than Pennsylvania will
tonight. There will be western estates coming into play; Oregon, South Dakota,
Montana.
Barack Obama is going to do just fine over the next several weeks. He
is going to be the nominee of the party. And this notion that five, six, seven
points; she needs a game changer.
OLBERMANN: I don't mean to undercut you. This is kind of unfair. We
just got this quote. I will read the quote to you and then tell you who said
it. This was on XM satellite radio this afternoon in Philadelphia; "Let me cut
to the chase, the gentleman said, a win is 50-plus. If Senator Clinton gets
over 50 percent, she won the state and I don't try to pretend that I enjoy
getting only 45 percent and that's a moral victory. You have lost the state."
That was with an interview from XM Satellite radio with Senator Obama.
Does that change expectations for tonight?
WILHELM: I guess I just got my talking points. Look, I like that
attitude. That's a winner's attitude. And we are fighting for every last vote
in the state of Pennsylvania, and we are fighting for every last vote around
the country. It is that kind of attitude that led to victories in 30 states.
But I think that, you know, to be an analyst for a second, not somebody
running to be the next president of the United States -- and there's a
difference between leadership and analysis -- I think that it is very fair to
say, if not here, where? And I -- I think a game changer is needed. In the
absence of a game changer, let's look at the facts. Senator Clinton right now
is behind by ten percentage points nationally. She is out of money. Her
negatives are going up, up, up, up.
This is -- regardless of the outcome tonight, at least at a national
level, this has not been a friendly two weeks for Senator Clinton. So I'm fine
with Senator Obama, where he is tonight. I'm fine with the statement that he
made. And let's, you know, continue this process until rationality and rank
and file Democrats say, you know, enough is enough; we have our nominee. Let's
get about the business of a general election.
OLBERMANN: There is the last question to you, Mr. Wilhelm. What is
that point and is that point reaching? Are we nearing that from -- Obama camp
has been very reticent to say -- Senator Obama has said no,, she has the
perfect right to stay in here and compete for seemingly indefinitely. Is there
a number tonight at which your organization says, you know, Senator Clinton, it
is time to go home?
WILHELM: Well, I don't think there is a number per se. But, you know,
there are various points that we will reach over the course of the next month
or so. There will be a point tonight where people take a breath and say OK,
what was the meaning of this election tonight? There will be a point in two
weeks where people will say OK, where are we now? Because Senator Obama has
regained whatever delegates he may have lost tonight, two weeks from tonight.
People will say well, this thing is over.
And then there will be another point at the conclusion of the primary
process where there will be a very clear lead that Barack Obama has in terms of
pledged delegates. I just think that there is a natural evolution to this
thing. People will see with their own two eyes what the nature of these
various pivot points are in the race. And I think at the conclusion of this,
the only conclusion that can be reached is that Senator Obama will be the
nominee of the Democratic party.
OLBERMANN: Those moments of which you speak we plan to have at least
six hours more of them just this evening. David Wilhelm, former chairman of
the DNC, now with the Obama camp, thank you, sir.
WILHELM: Thank you.
OLBERMANN: As the Democrats fight for Pennsylvania, the presumptive
Republican nominee is campaigning today in Ohio and in Kentucky. Our Kelly
O'Donnell is with John McCain and joins us now from Paintsville, Kentucky.
Good evening.
KELLY O'DONNELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Good evening. You know, John
McCain has an awful lot riding on what happens tonight. Of course, he is not
in Pennsylvania. And we have been trying to get out of him for days now, the
reporters traveling with him, who is his favorite, Senator Obama, Senator
Clinton, who would he like to run against? And again and again, he says, I'm
neutral. I don't have a preference.
We have also pressed him on what's the impact of this long Democratic
race? He says he can argue it both ways, that it could help his campaign,
giving him more time to organize and work on his own campaign. And at the same
time, all the attention going to the Democrats.
So what's McCain doing? He is really on a parallel track. This week,
he is trying to go to places where typically a Republican presidential
candidate seldom goes, from Appalachia to parts of Alabama to blighted parts of
Ohio, trying to say that he will fight for every vote and acknowledging to us
again today that he knows with African American voters, he has a lot of work to
do.
OLBERMANN: Kelly O'Donnell with the McCain campaign in Paintsville,
Kentucky. Thank you, Kelly.
MATTHEWS: How does this prolonged Democratic fight, which continues at
least through midnight tonight, affect John McCain as the Republican nominee?
MSNBC's political analyst Michelle Bernard is with us. She is with Independent
Women's Voice. Michelle, is this long fight helping or hurting the Dems
against a fight they have to face in the fall against John McCain?
MICHELLE BERNARD, INDEPENDENT WOMEN'S VOICE: It is absolutely hurting
the Dems. I have to tell you, if you are John McCain tonight, you have to be
hoping that what has occurred in the Democratic party since March 4th, last
time we had a big primary, is just, you know, the first act of what will be a
very long, you know, two, three act play.
Since March 4th, on the Obama side of the campaign, we have had
Reverend Jeremiah Wright. We've had accusations that Barack Obama is elitist.
We have had Barack Obama's sort of misstatements about why voters are
frustrated and angry and cling to religion and guns, and are fearful of people
who are unlike them.
We have also seen Senator Clinton having, quote, unquote, misstatement
about being under sniper fire in Bosnia. While this is happening, what we have
seen with Senator Obama and Senator Clinton is that their negative ratings are
escalating, and recent polls are showing that John McCain's general election
poll numbers are going up when he is matched against Senator Obama or Senator
Clinton.
Just in February, when you did a match up between Obama and Senator
McCain, Obama was ahead of Senator McCain by ten points. Right now, they are
pretty much even. This is absolutely helping the Republican party and helping
Senator McCain.
MATTHEWS: OK, thank you very much, Michelle Bernard. Up next,
Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter is coming here to join us. He is a Hillary
Clinton supporter. We will check back with David Gregory and our panel. This
is MSNBC's continuing coverage of the big Pennsylvania primary.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back. Polls in Pennsylvania will be closed in just
over an hour. Here we have Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, a very
impressive fellow who has just been elected mayor in Philadelphia. He supports
Hillary Clinton for president.
Mr. Mayor, I have to start a fight. Bob Brady, chairman of the City
Committee, a U.S. Congressman and head of the Democratic party of Philadelphia,
says that if Barack Obama gets the most elected delegates at the end of the
season, he has to be the nominee, the party cannot deny him that honor. What
do you think?
MICHAEL NUTTER, PHILADELPHIA MAYOR: Well, I think we have to wait and
see what the contest, how it plays out. Whether it is delegates, popular vote,
where the super delegates are; there is a whole process for this. I know you
would like for Brady and I to be at odds, but I probably won't take the bait.
Let us have Pennsylvanians finish voting for the next hour or so, as
you mentioned. Let's go on to West Virginia and Indiana and North Carolina,
Oregon, on through Puerto Rico, and see where we are at that point in the
process.
MATTHEWS: OK, let's join in a kumbaya of good government. I am so
impressed, as you must be, at political excitement in the Philadelphia area.
NUTTER: Yes.
MATTHEWS: Tell me about it. You grow up in the city. I mean, 35,000
people at Independence Mall, 5,000 at Winwood. Both candidates last night for
Hillary.
NUTTER: Close to 10,000 people at the Palestra last night. It was
incredible. The house was rocking. I think that what it points to is the
passion that people have, certainly for each of the candidates. But it is
great for the party. We brought new people in. They have gotten registered to
vote. They are active. They are going to be ready for a fall election which
is certainly not going to be a stroll in the park.
We are going to have to be organized. We're going to have to be
vigorous, diligent and ready for action come fall. We will let this electoral
process play itself out. The city has shined throughout this, the city, the
suburbs and all of Pennsylvania. And I think Pennsylvanians have taken this
limelight moment very well and they are going do very well tonight.
MATTHEWS: How do you keep the -- I talked to a lot of county chairs.
You talk to them all the time about the need to keep the Democratic party
united. You have 300,000 new Democrats in the state of Pennsylvania in the
last few months. How do you make sure that what comes out of this process
keeps them all engaged for November?
NUTTER: I think the main thing is making sure we stay in touch with
people, have a variety of other activities and party builders, unity building
events and activities all throughout the various Democratic organizations, all
across Pennsylvania. And I think leaders are now starting to talk about that.
We have to have a game plan. We have keep this block of voters and all of our
voters energized for the fall. I'm looking forward to that activity.
MATTHEWS: Thank you very much, Mayor Michael Nutter of Philadelphia.
OLBERMANN: Polls are going to close in Pennsylvania in one hour and
what-- two minutes and change. When we -- yes. One hour, two minutes. When
we return, we will talk to Hillary Clinton's biggest supporter in the state,
Governor Ed Rendell. More correctly, Chris will talk to Governor Rendell. Tim
Russert will be here at the top of the hour. We will assess where we are, and
try to figure out if one candidate says a win is a win and the other one says a
win is 50 plus one, why we are talking about percentages. Our coverage --
MSNBC's continuing coverage of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary continues
after this.
CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Welcome back to MSNBC's continuing
coverage of the Democratic primary up in Pennsylvania. I'm Chris Matthews at
NBC News world headquarters in New York, alongside Keith Olbermann.
Polls close in Pennsylvania in one hour, at 8:00 Eastern. And, this
hour, we are going to hear from Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell.
But, before we do, we are going to have new numbers from our exit
polling.
And, for that, we go to Norah O'Donnell -- Norah.
NORAH O'DONNELL, NBC CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: All right, Chris
and Keith.
You know, in the final days of this fight for Pennsylvania, we saw the
candidates level some of their harshest criticism. Barack Obama painted his
rival as a compromised Washington insider, while Clinton charged that Obama's
new tactics showed he was just another old-style politician.
She also unveiled those ads, calling into question his readiness to
deal with threats like Osama bin Laden. So, the big question, how did all of
these negative attacks play in Pennsylvania? Well, our exit poll shows that
most Democratic voters think Hillary Clinton went too far. In fact, two-thirds
say she attacked unfairly.
Only 49 percent said that about Obama. This is the highest we have
seen these negative numbers since South Carolina, when the issue of race first
became a flash point. And when you look at the breakdown by race and gender --
there we go -- 77 percent of black voters take Hillary Clinton to task for
attacking her opponent unfairly. Well, only half as many, 37 percent, feel the
same way about Barack Obama.
White women voters don't give either candidate a pass. Sixty-four
percent think Clinton crossed the line. Over half think Obama went too far.
And how did six full weeks of ads aimed at Pennsylvania voters affect
their decisions? Well, our exit polls find just over half saying that the ads
were very or somewhat important to their vote. That's really interesting.
These campaign ads matter. And, remember, Barack Obama spent an enormous
amount of money on television. We are talking about $10 million, maybe more,
essentially outspending Hillary Clinton 3-1 in this run-up to the primary --
Chris and Keith.
MATTHEWS: Thank you, Norah.
KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: All right, let's check back in with NBC
News Washington bureau chief, moderator of "Meet the Press," Tim Russert.
Tim, all right. Tim is not back with us yet.
So, Chris, you and I are going to have to talk about this.
Those exit polls, what does it profit a candidate if they win
Pennsylvania, but -- but lose the earth? Is there so much of an impact, or do
people forget the negativity were Hillary Clinton to become the Democratic
nominee?
MATTHEWS: I have to tell you, I was talking to Democrats across the
state in the last week or so. And they are worried. They are afraid that
these young kids who have joined the process and are gung-ho are going to be
turned off by the process right after this primary by -- will they feel it has
been stolen from them, because they don't think the person who got the most
delegates wins, or they just don't like all the dirtiness of it?
But, clearly, John McCain is moving into Pennsylvania. There's no
doubt in my mind that the smart people around him, Tom Ridge, the former
governor, Charlie Black, all the others, are saying, Pennsylvania is the one we
can take away from the Democrats and destroy their chances, because the one
thing we all know in this business, Pennsylvania must go Democrat for the
Democrats to win.
OLBERMANN: And the McCain people obviously inherit whatever dirty
laundry has been spread by both candidates.
MATTHEWS: Yes.
OLBERMANN: All right, Tim Russert is now with us. I was a little
ahead of ourselves here.
Tim, those exit polls and -- and some of the other numbers that we have
seen about new voters and voters looking for change, we have seen these sitting
in there and still disconnecting with the outcomes of the race.
How do you interpret what we have seen so far from the exits?
TIM RUSSERT, NBC WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Exactly right. Whenever you
hear a new voter or a converted voter from Republican rolls, Democrats rolls,
they seem to overwhelmingly support Barack Obama.
But he still is having difficulty cracking in to some of that hard-core
traditional blue-collar Democratic base. He will say, Keith, that what that
means is, all those traditional Democrats will come back in the fall, and that
he can open up states like Colorado and Virginia and areas that had not been
available.
Picking up in your conversation with Chris, McCain, on the other hand,
sees a pincer movement, not only Pennsylvania and Ohio, but Michigan, too.
They really believe that they can put Pennsylvania and Michigan in play, along
with Ohio, and cause the Democrats great, great grief come this fall, because
those traditional blue-collar voters will not come back to the Democratic
fold. That's McCain's calculation.
OLBERMANN: All right. Let's take it back to tonight.
And, so far, all the predictions, other than Ed Rendell's, seem to be
about how one side or the other does not expect to win by very much.
(LAUGHTER)
OLBERMANN: This is -- talk about diminished expectations. They're
diminishing as we -- as we speak.
Senator Clinton said, a win is a win. Senator Obama said, a win is 50,
plus one. I don't pretend that I enjoy only getting 45 percent.
And then his own campaign guru, David Axelrod, came back and said, I
have to disagree with Senator Obama. We're -- by the end of this, it's going
to be a nothing-nothing score.
(LAUGHTER)
RUSSERT: Jack Murtha, don't forget, said double digits for Clinton.
He's been consistent.
(LAUGHTER)
RUSSERT: But -- but I think you are on to something.
I think what Senator Obama was trying to do was suggest to everybody,
listen, I'm going to be gracious here. I'm going to be magnanimous.
I don't know want Senator Clinton tomorrow, if she wins by a few
points, to be able to say, we denied her a victory, that we weren't going to
count this state as a win because she didn't win by enough. How unfair is
that? And is it because, you know, the old boys' network is at it again?
I just think he wants to take the card away if, in fact, it would be
played tomorrow.
OLBERMANN: So, this is Obama holding the door open and saying, no,
after you, Senator Clinton, and she is staying outside, saying, I will open the
damn door myself?
RUSSERT: I had a very close supporter of Hillary Clinton say to me
that the key now is how these two treat one another in terms of whether this
party is going to come together, to a point where, if things didn't work out
tonight for Hillary Clinton, what kind of way would Barack Obama comport
himself?
And then how would they start dealing with both Hillary and Bill
Clinton, and in terms of the fund-raising difficulties or a potential debt,
working together on that? I mean, they are thinking this through in their
minds. And I think both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have several
different strategies at play.
If she blows it out and wins big, it is full speed ahead.
Superdelegates, understand, I am the tough one. I can beat McCain.
If it is close, she has to make some big decisions. And part of that,
I think, will be how she's treated by Barack Obama.
OLBERMANN: But how does Senator Clinton comport herself, because this
is exactly the point? In case we are outside of that Tim Russert danger zone
of an eight-point victory, if it is less than that -- we are now down to the
three- and four-point ranges -- Donna Brazile said this morning, as the ex-
manager of Al Gore's campaign, as a superdelegate: There is a group around
Senator Clinton that really wants to take the fight to the convention. They
don't care about the party. It scares me, and that's what scares a lot of
superdelegates.
Is she speaking for herself, or is there, in fact, a group there that
is waiting to see how Senator Clinton comports herself?
RUSSERT: Oh, there are a group of superdelegates who are watching this
very, very closely.
I had one political pro tell me that he thinks that 40 or 50
superdelegates could move quickly, undecided superdelegates, if this in fact
was a close race tonight, to try to solidify behind Obama.
Also, Keith, while there is a hard core around Senator Clinton that
wants to keep fighting, because they have been in there and fighting very, very
hard for a year-and-a-half, there are others, particularly people raising
money, who understand reality. And they know that they are tapped out with the
maximum givers, that, unless there's a big victory, it's going to be hard to
raise money from the Internet.
And, so, When you take away that life support, that wonderful song,
money makes the world go around, yes, indeed it does, particularly when you are
going on to Indiana and North Carolina, all the way until early June.
OLBERMANN: Yes, I really like the image of superdelegates moving
quickly, because, so far, they have been glacier-like, in any respect, in any
direction.
Tim Russert, we will check back in with you later. Many, many thanks.
RUSSERT: Thanks, Keith.
MATTHEWS: Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell is supporting Hillary
Clinton, as everyone knows, for president.
He joins us now from Philadelphia.
Governor Rendell, I wonder if the dance has not begun already, Barack
Obama being magnanimous, saying that, if Hillary Clinton wins by one vote
tonight, she is the winner. Is he setting up a rapprochement if Hillary
Clinton fails to meet that magic number tonight?
GOV. ED RENDELL (D), PENNSYLVANIA: I don't have a clue what Senator
Obama is thinking. I don't think it is going to be over tonight.
I think Senator Clinton is going to win a fairly significant victory.
And, again, it depends how you define it. I think Tim is in -- far wrong,
eight points, seven points. Given the money differential that -- that existed
in this state, if she wins by six, seven, eight points, that's a significant
victory in Pennsylvania.
If she wins by 10 points, that's an extraordinary victory. And I think
we just have to wait and see. I do disagree, though, with the premise. And,
you know, Chris, I have consistently disagreed with the premise that we are
going to have a tough time getting back together.
I think Pennsylvania Democrats, including most of the young voters,
including the women voters who say now that they are going to vote for Senator
McCain if Senator Obama is the nominee, I don't think that is going to happen.
And I think the leadership, people like Mayor Nutter and others, are going to
band together quickly, whoever the nominee is.
And whether it is in the beginning of June or the beginning of
September, we are going to band together. And I think you will see 97 percent,
98 percent of our voter base coming back. And, remember, our voter base now is
four million-plus...
MATTHEWS: Right.
RENDELL: ... the biggest that any political party has had in the
history of the commonwealth. So, if we lost 3 percent or 4 percent, we still
have a gigantic lead over the Republicans. And I think we will carry this
state for either Senator Obama or Senator Clinton in the fall.
Senator Clinton would do much better, in my judgment. But I think we
will also carry it for Senator Obama.
MATTHEWS: Well, you have so many candidates that have turned blue.
You are right, Governor. You have the Elk, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton. You
have got the collar counties around Philadelphia, Bucks and Montgomery, are
definitely Democrat now. You have got the Republicans losing their majority in
Delaware and Chester. All that is true.
But then I had Bob Brady on television yesterday say, in Philadelphia,
that if the candidate who gets the most elected delegates does not get the
nomination, there's going to be trouble.
RENDELL: It depends. I -- I would differ with Mike Nutter, my good
friend. And I would say Bob Brady is wrong. It depends on a number of
factors, for example, who wins the popular vote. And the popular vote, I
think, has to include the Florida vote. In all basic fairness, the rules were
equal. Everybody's name was on the ballot. And it was a rout. And it has to
include the Florida vote.
So, I think, if one candidate has the popular vote, the other has more
delegates, which is more compelling? I could make the argument that the
popular vote is a clearer indication of democracy than this screwed-up system
of awarding delegates we have where some areas, the vote counts more for a
delegate than other areas. It makes no sense at all, the system.
MATTHEWS: But didn't Hillary Clinton win in Florida just on the --
everyone knew this ahead of time, and it was written about by the columnists,
that, with her name I.D. and the reputation she enjoys from first lady --
serving all these years as sort of the first lady of the country and,
politically, the first lady of the Democratic Party, that she had an advantage,
without campaigning, that the other candidates didn't have down in Florida?
(CROSSTALK)
RENDELL: You know who doesn't believe that, Chris?
MATTHEWS: Who?
RENDELL: The Senator Obama campaign, because we wanted to revote in
Florida and Michigan, and they wouldn't let us.
If they believed that that was an unfair representation of Florida's
vote, then let's vote again. We had the opportunity to vote again. And the
Obama forces -- and, by the way, if Hillary Clinton had done this, you all
would have been screaming bloody murder. The Obama forces did -- moved in and
stopped revotes in Michigan and Florida. You tell me why.
MATTHEWS: You are arguing with me, Governor.
RENDELL: You tell me why, Chris.
(LAUGHTER)
MATTHEWS: Well, I don't know. I think you make a good point, that, if
the Clinton campaign wanted the revote in Florida and the Barack vote --
people didn't want a vote in Florida again, and they were given enough time to
campaign, and a decent campaign period, I guess you could argue that they were
afraid of getting wiped out down there...
(CROSSTALK)
RENDELL: By more than 300, because the turnout probably would have
been more than 1.8 million. And we have set these primaries in the middle of
June.
MATTHEWS: Yes.
RENDELL: There would have been plenty of time for Senator Obama to go
in and work his magic.
MATTHEWS: Well, let me ask about the 300,000 new Democrats in
Pennsylvania.
Most people believe -- I mean, you can't be sure of this -- that these
are young people and party-switchers that really wanted to vote for Barack
Obama. How do you keep them in the fold if you go with Hillary Clinton in
November?
RENDELL: Well, first of all, let me correct you. A high percentage of
these people are women. And a lot of them were Republican women coming over to
vote for Hillary Clinton.
If you asked me to break down the percentage, I would say it was 60
percent for Senator Obama, 40 percent for Senator Clinton. So, I don't think
it is as wide a disparity as everybody thinks.
MATTHEWS: You mean that most of the new voters came in to vote for
Hillary, not for Barack?
RENDELL: No, no. Sixty percent came in to vote for Barack...
MATTHEWS: OK.
RENDELL: ... 40 percent for Hillary, in my judgment.
How do you keep them? Because, in the end, the choice is going to be
between four more years of George Bush -- and John McCain sold his soul to the
right wing of his party, more war in Iraq, more Bush economic policies, no help
for mortgagees that are facing foreclosure, all of those things.
I think, in the end, most of our voters, they may be disappointed if
Senator Obama is not the candidate -- women may be disappointed if it is not
Senator Clinton, but most voters will look at Election Day and say, I can't sit
by and let this country go through four more years like the last eight. And
they will come out and vote.
They may not come out and vote as enthusiastically or as passionately
as they would have for their candidate, but they will come out and vote.
And, plus, the fact you will have people coalescing. For whatever
worth I am or Mayor Nutter is, if it is Barack Obama, we are going to be out
there pushing just as hard as we pushed for Hillary Clinton.
MATTHEWS: We will see that all in November. That sounds like the
battle cry for the Democrats in Pennsylvania in November.
Governor Rendell, thanks for joining us.
RENDELL: Thanks, guys.
OLBERMANN: For more on the lay of the land in the Keystone State, we
turn to NBC News and MSNBC political director Chuck Todd, "By the Numbers."
I have one, actually, to give you as we start, Chuck.
(CROSSTALK)
OLBERMANN: We're getting our first reports of turnout, an estimate
from the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania that it was about 26 percent of
registered in 2004. They are expecting at least 52 percent tonight. That's
extraordinary.
CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: It would absolutely be
extraordinary. And it would get us to that number. We have been talking a lot
about the popular vote, about, you know, if it is two million voters today,
first, it helps with the math, because we can easily divide two million very
quickly, 55-45, and get a 200,000 spread for Clinton.
But it would indicate also that this is going to be a long night, as
far as trying to figure out the exact delegate breakdown. And, by the way, we
are letting the delegate thing get lost here. Delegates do nominate. We have
been talking a lot about the popular vote.
But most of the delegates in Pennsylvania are coming out of
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Basically, half the delegates up of the 158 are
based on the Philadelphia media market vote, a quarter based on the Pittsburgh
vote, and then a quarter everywhere else in the T. or so-called, as James
Carville likes to call it, the Alabama part of Pennsylvania.
What's interesting here -- I want to get inside the Philadelphia area
here a little bit, because this is where we are going to know if Obama can keep
the delegate split basically even. Of the 158, I mean, I think it is very
possible tonight, a narrow Clinton win would give 80 delegates, and Obama would
get 78. I think her number could get as high as 86 and his number probably
does not get any lower than 72.
So, those are the ranges we are working with. But almost -- most --
about half of Obama's delegate take is going to be from here. And the question
is, you have got the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts here, which are
Philadelphia. He could net eight to 10 delegates just out of those two
districts. And that was what Rendell was talking about, Governor Rendell,
talking about the lopsided nature of how Democrats award delegates.
These heavily districts, African-American districts, are given more
delegates. They're just weighted heavier. You could make an argument that,
basically, their vote counts for more than somebody's vote in Scranton or
somebody's vote in Erie.
And I'm sure that that's something that the Clinton campaign will be
talking about. But, then, the rest of these suburban congressional districts,
right, the 6th, the 7th, the 8th, two of those three were big pickups for the
Democrats. This is what Chris has been talking about, about how the Republican
suburbs are no longer Republican anymore. They are becoming Democratic
suburbs.
Will Clinton be very competitive here? Will these split? These are
seven -- there's a five -- a 6th C.D., a Democratic delegate district here, a
couple of sevens. Will they split 4-3 for Obama or 4-3 for Clinton? And that
would be the difference between that 80-78 split I was showing you earlier and
the 86-72.
But the most important district I actually want to point out is a
fairly small one, something I pointed out earlier. And that's the 16th. I'm
pointing that one out because I think it will tell us whether Obama could
finally sort of reach in to these newer exurbs part of Philadelphia. This is
Lancaster and York. A lot of this area, in this part, this is where -- did
Philadelphia get bigger?
You know, people talk about, how big will the Philadelphia vote mean?
The way I look at it, how big is Philadelphia geographically? Did the entire
market become an Obama stronghold? And that would mean also him doing well in
this 16th District. He doesn't have to necessarily win it. But does he get 40
percent in that district? If he is doing that, and piling up these large
numbers in Philadelphia, like we were saying, then, suddenly, there might be a
road map for victory.
If he is getting trounced here in a place that is starting to get a
little more competitive for the Democrats, but they all seem to be siding more
with Senator Clinton, then you know that there was a big divide, and then this
may be a good night for Clinton. So, that's the district I'm -- I want to be
watching very closely, Lancaster County, York County, the 16th Congressional
District.
OLBERMANN: Those greater Philly districts, one man, 1.0006 votes
each.
Chuck Todd, great thanks. We will be back with you later on.
TODD: You got it.
OLBERMANN: Coming up: one of Barack Obama's top Pennsylvania
supporters, U.S. Congressperson Chaka Fattah, plus, more with our race to the
White House panel.
You are watching MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
OLBERMANN: We rejoin you with MSNBC's coverage of the primary in
Pennsylvania. Polls will close in about 39 minutes.
At the very least, Barack Obama is hoping to keep it close tonight.
U.S. Congressman Chaka Fattah represents Philadelphia and supports
Senator Obama in his candidacy.
Congressman, thanks for your time tonight.
REP. CHAKA FATTAH (D), PENNSYLVANIA: It's good to be with you and be
good with Chris again.
(LAUGHTER)
OLBERMANN: He is everywhere.
(LAUGHTER)
OLBERMANN: If all that matters, ultimately, here is delegates at the
end of this race, why are both campaigns tonight focusing so much on how much
Senator Clinton might win by? Why does that number matter, if this is all
about delegates?
FATTAH: Well, the nomination is about who wins the delegates. But
delegates are won in part by momentum.
And, so, obviously, Senator Clinton, who has run a great campaign in
Pennsylvania, wants to try to win the state to claim momentum, even if she is
behind in delegates, because it may help her down the road win actual
delegates. So, we all understand the game.
We are working hard. We wanted to get our share of the popular vote.
Senator Obama is very pleased with the response he got here in Pennsylvania.
And he -- on his train trip, on his bus tour, out in Pittsburgh last night, in
Philadelphia on Friday, great response to the Obama campaign and message.
I was out with Senator Obama and Michelle. We visited a barbershop out
in west Philadelphia today and a day care center. He's just had a great time.
And, as he said, he wanted to win every vote that he deserved in the state and
win every delegate on possible, and then move on to the May 6 contest.
OLBERMANN: But, if he said, look, it's -- obviously, the money is a
matter of public record, how much was spent and how much of a financial
advantage the campaign had over the Clinton campaign.
Momentum was largely to -- to -- to his benefit going into this six
weeks ago. He has -- as you said, you know, has described a win as 50, plus
one; I'm not going to be happy with some sort of moral victory at 45 percent of
the vote.
Don't those things, in the devil's-advocate point of vie, say, if you
can't win Pennsylvania, why not? Is that not big question, if he -- if he is
not the -- the 50, plus one, winner tonight?
FATTAH: Well, the Obama campaign believes that every state is
important. And he has won twice as many as Senator Clinton.
But Pennsylvania is important. And that's why he competed hard here.
The reality is, is that he came in here after Senator Clinton won Ohio and
Texas. She was up 26, almost 30 points 30 days ago. And when you start out
with a new brand, fighting somebody who has already been around, you know, if
you take on Keith Olbermann or HARDBALL with a new show somewhere, you are
going to have to advertise more, because you already have a share of the
market.
So, Obama had to work hard. You had 100 mayors in the state for
Senator Clinton. You had the governor and the mayors of Philadelphia and
Pittsburgh. You know, it was a tough sell. But he worked hard. And I think
we are going to be pleased with the results tonight, because I think that
you're going to see a result in which, whether the numbers add up or not, I
think he's going to have -- did very well in terms of delegates, and have a
respectable showing in terms of the popular vote.
MATTHEWS: Congressman, I think there's a couple of ways that your
campaign could have been a lot tougher. I have been hearing from politicians
in the last 24 hours that they like that cutting ad that the SEIU ran for you
guys, the service employees, that showed Barack Obama taking on the special
interests, especially the oil company, a real cutting, tough ad.
Do you think your campaign should have had more of that sort of
populist strength to it, not this nice guy, Barack Obama is this sweet guy,
vote for him, he is going to bring us together? Do you think it should have
had a little more edge to it?
FATTAH: Well, look, I think that you can always look back at a
campaign.
And -- but the reality is, is that the Obama team wanted to have a
respectful campaign that allows us to still unite the party down the road. And
we don't want to be in an attack mode all the time.
But we will have to, as we go forward, make sure that we can win where
winning is possible. Pennsylvania may not have been impossible. We don't
know. We are very pleased with some of the things we have seen out of the exit
polls. He did extraordinarily well with urban voters, with new voters.
He sees that cut in, in significant ways with -- with a number of
groups of people that may not have been in his corner before. We will have to
see tonight how it ends up. And we will do an after-action review of it. And
we will take those lessons on to Indiana and North Carolina.
OLBERMANN: And we will do the same here, at least the -- the after-
hours action report.
Chaka Fattah, the congressman, representing Senator Obama, thank you
for your time tonight, sir.
FATTAH: I'm not surprised that Chris is arguing for hardball tactics.
(LAUGHTER)
FATTAH: Thanks a lot, Keith.
(LAUGHTER)
OLBERMANN: As ever.
Up next: more from our exit polling, plus David Gregory and our race to
the White House panel will rejoin us.
This is MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back to MSNBC's continuing coverage of the
Pennsylvania primary.
Right now, the polls are closed in Pennsylvania. It's 8:00.
And, right now, we want to check back with our race to the White House
panel, led by David Gregory -- David.
DAVID GREGORY, NBC CORRESPONDENT: Chris, thanks very much.
One of the reasons that I am so excited tonight is I think, for the
first time, panel, we really have the ability to test the central arguments and
prepositions in this campaign -- propositions in this campaign.
We have not had a vote in six weeks. We -- this has been the longest
campaign within the campaign. And now we are really going to learn something,
after such a momentous time during the campaign, and a difficult time for
Barack Obama. Pat, for Hillary Clinton, the issue here is whether she's been
able to come out Pennsylvania and prove that Barack Obama is unviable as
candidate. Can she do that with anything other than a stunning double digit
victory?
BUCHANAN: I think she has to get a double digit victory to prove
Barack Obama really is going to be a problematic candidate in the general
election. But it's going to be irrelevant and will keep marching until the
nomination or something turns it around. What he came in to prove, he was
determined to take her out, I think. He threw all the ads in and got the
endorsement, he worked hard all through it. When he says, you know, I need 50-
plus one to win, it looks like he did not do it and so we move forward. But
the inexorability of this race has not changed. Or does not appear to be
changed.
ROBINSON: Yes. I think you could also make the argument that Obama
had to pour a lot of money and resources into Pennsylvania precisely to avoid a
double-digit loss that would paint him as unviable. In other words, he had to
get it close, he to get it closer than the early polls looked which had, you
know, 20-point gap between the two. He couldn't stand …
GREGORY: But that may be for people who are watching this day in and
day out. Rachel, here is the front runner in this campaign. We have had weeks
of people saying that she ought to get out of the race. He spent time and he
spent money and let people see the Obama charm up close and yet, he's not
converting enough voters and acting like a real front-runner should to win one
of the big states. Why does an argument like that from Hillary Clinton
effectively break one of the central arguments of his campaign?
MADDOW: I don't think it breaks it because of the larger context.
Michael Dukakis did great in Pennsylvania in 1988 and it didn't help him much
in the general election. That remains the case. Also, the big picture here is
the same. Six week ago, Hillary Clinton was definitely going to win
Pennsylvania. The question was by how much. Today Hillary Clinton’s
definitely going to win Pennsylvania. The question is by how much. At least
that's how it seems. The only difference is she is in debt and he is sitting
on $40 million. What's the proactive case for Hillary Clinton getting the
nomination? What's the case for Hillary Clinton?
GREGORY: The other thing she has done with the ads is to raise the
question mark over his head and to say you cannot trust him and it is the same
argument that the former president made, that you can't trust him when times
are tough. If she wins narrowly, how does she win the argument?
BUCHANAN: Well, you know, I -- I don't know she does win that
argument. The other one you made is very important for the general public, not
for us. If they look at the headlines, say Hillary beats Obama in
Pennsylvania, they say why can this guy take her out? Everybody tells me he is
the front runner. Everybody says she should get out. She whips him in Ohio,
she whips him in Texas, she whips him in Pennsylvania. What's the matter with
this guy n.
MADDOW: She starts off six week ago with 16-point lead and he has six
weeks …
BUCHANAN: But the paper said she lost another big one.
MADDOW: Well, sure. Pennsylvania is all but subtitled Clinton
country. Chuck Todd has been making the case that this is demographically
exactly designed for a Hillary Clinton victory. If she wins that's a dog
bite's man story. It is not a game changer and still is sitting on $40
million. She is in debt. What happens next?
GREGORY: Gene, comment here and I want to make one other observation.
ROBINSON: Just step back from the race for a minute. Number one, it
is a miracle either candidate standing after the last six weeks. After
Reverend Wright after Bittergate and Bosnia and sniper fire.
MADDOW: It gets worse. I’m sure.
ROBINSON: They both took damage. What you have here are two very
good, very strong candidates. And in so they are going -- they could be
fighting it out for a while.
GREGORY: One more observation based on what we are actually hearing on
this network tonight in our coverage. And that is the fact that Barack Obama
seems to be able to come out of this as a bit of a victim. Look at the exit
poll showing people think he was attacked unfairly. These are some of the
biggest missteps in his campaign, Reverend Wright and other things. He -- wait
a minute. Coming out that way. He is also not engaging in percentage argument
saying a win is a win for her and as Tim Russert suggested he does not want to
be seen as taking a victory away. Is this how a real front-runner acts? He
rates for a moment to take her out of the race.
BUCHANAN: Fifty percent plus one is a gracious comment. It is a good
comment. It is -- the idea of he is getting beat up, and stuff like that, the
country doesn't want a wimp. They don't want a wimp as president of the United
States. I will say when he comes out and says look, she won this thing fair
and square. I lost. We are not going to talk about numbers. Let's go to
Indiana. That will be the right way if he loses this thing by one vote.
ROBINSON: But on David’s point, though, both their negatives have gone
up. Hers tend to go up higher than his.
MADDOW: Hers are 12 points higher than his right now.
ROBINSON: When she attacks him, her negatives go up.
BUCHANAN: Then why can't he beat her?
MADDOW: People may be voting. People may have a negative opinion
about her but they are still voting for her.
BUCHANAN: Why?
GREGORY: The debate will keep on going. And a lot more ahead. Back
to you.
MATTHEWS: Thank you, David. The polls of course still open in
Pennsylvania. For another 25 minutes. If you haven't voted, take the
opportunity to be a practicing member of our society. Up next, we will have
the latest and newest numbers from our exit polling. Plus NBC’s Tom Brokaw
will be with us with his opening analysis of the night. You’re watching
MSNBC’s live coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
OLBERMANN: Just over 21 minutes until polls close in Pennsylvania.
Alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann. And while we await the results
from Pennsylvania, we have new numbers from the exit polling and as usual for
that let's turn to Norah O’Donnell. Norah?
O’DONNELL: And good evening to you, Chris and Keith. A lot of people
are saying Pennsylvania of course is a tailor made state for Hillary Clinton.
In past primaries blue collar workers, those without college degrees and older
voters propelled her to victory. Remember in neighboring Ohio she won there by
ten points. So we decided to look at how similar the states are.
First up, those states are mostly white. What we are learning today,
80 percent of voters in Pennsylvania today are white. Seventy eight percent
are Ohio. Now 14 percent of Pennsylvanians are black. Compared with 18
percent in Ohio. Hispanic voters were just a small segment of the electorate.
Essentially like four percent. Education, majorities of Democratic voters in
both states do not have a college degree. Fifty-five percent there in
Pennsylvania. You can see. Even a higher number, 61 percent in Ohio did not
have college degrees. Another way of looking at the two states by household
incomes. In both a little over 50 percent of voter made over $50,000. About
four in ten in each state makes less than that. Also important to remember
when comparing the states Pennsylvania close primary today. Ohio, it was an
open primary.
And look at where voters live. There is a large number of small town
and rural voters in Pennsylvania. In fact, about one-fifth come from small
towns or the country. That's true of just 11 percent essentially of Ohio
voters. About the same number I should say in each state lives in big cities.
The difference is in the suburbs. That's key. The suburbs. Somewhat more
suburban essentially in Ohio.
One big difference that many observers have also remarked on is
Pennsylvania’s aging population. Only Florida has an older population than
Pennsylvania. Among Democratic voters, today, over one-fourth, look at that
number, look at that number, 27 percent are 65 or older. Ohio voters was just
14 percent were over 65. By contrast, just 10 percent of those who had voted
thus far today are ages 18 to 29. That was 16 percent in Ohio. We know why
that's important. Younger voters like Barack Obama. The older voters, of
course, like Hillary Clinton.
And finally, religion. Both Pennsylvania and Ohio have substantial
Catholic populations. In the Keystone State it is particularly large. It is
four out of ten in Pennsylvania. In Ohio, it was just three out of 10, what do
we know? White Catholics have in the past favored Hillary Clinton. Chris and
Keith?
OLBERMANN: Norah O’Donnell with the exit polls. Thank you, Norah.
MATTHEWS: Let's bring back the insiders. Now, the only two people
here elected to talk about politics. Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford.
Joe?
JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC ANCHOR: Hey, Harold, let’s pretend we’re in the
Democratic cloakroom. We are two uncommitted superdelegates and we just found
out Barack Obama lost Pennsylvania. We are talking and I say to you hey, man,
I’m concerned about this guy. He's been in Pennsylvania for seven weeks. He
has had $9 million, he’s crushed Hillary Clinton as far as the ad wars go. But
he can't close the deal. He can win now, and we are in a Democratic cloakroom,
I would then say those Republican bastards are going to kill him in the fall.
What do we do?
HAROLD FORD JR.: That’s a great question.
SCARBOROUGH: It is a great question.
FORD: The question is going to be asked come this week and next week.
And I think the answer, Joe knows this as well as anybody.
SCARBOROUGH: No, hold on, Harold. We are in the cloakroom and role
playing here, buddy. What do you say to me?
FORD: The difference is I'm a Democrat and you are Republican.
SCARBOROUGH: No. But I'm playing a Democrat. Also, you are
supporting Obama. Get out of that. Seriously. What do you say in the
cloakroom when somebody comes up to you and says, I want to commit to this guy,
I just don't think he can beat McCain in the fall if he can't close the deal
now?
FORD: I think Pat had the great point last segment. I chair the DLC
so I am not endorsing nor can I support anybody. But I think the question
becomes as you look at the big states, Barack had a hard time putting an end to
this and closing this. So he will make the argument he brings more people into
the fold and his supporters will make the argument. If tonight there is not a
big win I would agree with the supposition some of the superdelegates are going
to step back, take a pause and think long and hard. Even the ones who have
committed. When they hear the argument or rationale laid out by Joe just
there, I think they, too, will stand back a bit. If this win is a seven, eight
point win tonight I think you will see a lot of superdelegates tomorrow and the
following days. Step back and say we have to think through this.
SCARBOROUGH: So Harold, if somebody comes up to you and they -- your
leadership position, the they say I want to support Obama but he’s lost
California, he's lost New York, he has lost Pennsylvania, he has lost Ohio, he
has lost Texas, he has lost Florida. He has lost every big state. They like
the guy. And then they whisper what's wrong with him? Why can he win these
big states? What do you tell them?
FORD: Well, I am not a surrogate for either of the campaigns. I think
the number is a straightforward one. He started late in Pennsylvania. This is
a state that has been very supportive of the Clintons over the years. He faced
some challenges, some gaffes during the time in Pennsylvania. Stood strong,
stood firm with those blows and able to survive it. If the …
SCARBOROUGH: Harold, hold on. I have to give you a time-out. Let me
ask you something. If you had four times the amount of TV ads against Bob
Corker in Tennessee when you ran for Senate in 2006, would Corker beat you?
FORD: There were probably a few other things that worked there as
well. We probably -- we may not have made up the 25,000 votes if we had …
SCARBOROUGH: If you had -- think about it. How many Senate races do
you know where one Senate candidate has four or five times the amount of 30-
second ads blanketing a state and they still lose after having of the airwaves
for seven weeks?
FORD: You’re right. You can find many races where that has happened.
Look, your supposition is spot on. I don't mean to be evasive. I have to be
careful in my position.
SCARBOROUGH: No, you don't have to be careful. This is just between
us.
FORD: If I were advising the Obama campaign in the morning, my point
would be very simple. You have to get out and you have to touch these blue
collar workers and you have to get more substance and specificity. Even if you
believe you are, clearly, something is not working. The attacks, no need to
cry about the attacks, complain about the attacks, that’s part of the business,
when you get in are a close contested and heated primary, you have to get out
and show a toughness and show resilience and …
SCARBOROUGH: How would you do it? You did it in Tennessee. You cut
into white blue collar voters in Tennessee among Democrats and independents and
some Republicans. How did you do it? What did you do that Barack Obama is not
doing in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, these other big states?
FORD: I think he has got to do two things. One, you got to get in
with these blue collar workers. You have got to walk through their plants and
the things he has been doing. You’ve got to walk through the diners and
through farmlands and you’ve got to make clear to all of those people that you
not only can speak and talk a great game and have great rhetoric but you have
to -- you understand where they live and how they live and here is what you are
going to do to change things.
When a campaign becomes about a person, about an individual, I'm not
accusing the Obama campaign of this, but when it becomes about an individual
and not about the people, as you well know, Joe, you wouldn’t have won in that
district of yours where you had a lot of democrats. Had you to connect with
people in those districts. One thing the Clintons have done a great job of in
this campaign is that. If your -- she wins by eight or nine or 10 points there
are legitimate questions that will be raised about Barack and he will have a
harder time holding the superdelegate crew he has now and even bringing more to
his fold in spite of what some in the media may thinking and may suggest after
tonight's numbers.
SCARBOROUGH: Thank you, Harold. Now back to you, Chris. Bottom line,
the key is you have to be a regular Joe.
OLBERMANN: As a regular Joe. Let me ask you as an outsider to an
insider, Joe. One question. Does this answer your question? If in every
competition in this race it has been the same trajectory, it ends at different
places depending when the finish line is, but in every one of those, it is
Obama from time where we start to time where we end and Clinton is time where
we start to time where we end every single time. Is that not the answer to the
question you posed?
SCARBOROUGH: I don't know. I think right now what Democrats are going
to be doing, what I certainly would do, what people will be doing is if Hillary
wins by five, six, seven points, people are going to start looking a lot closer
in trying to figure out what it is that stops him from winning the big
campaigns in the closing dates. Why can't he close the deal? Of course,
Rachel always brings up the great points. He is going to win New York. He is
going to win California.
He is going to win a lot of these contests that he is losing now. But
that's not the issue. These are all huge tests for him. Huge tests for his
campaign. He does so many things right but the one thing he can't do is close
the deal in the really big races. And that's what the Obama campaign and the
Clinton campaign and Democratic Party has to figure out moving forward. If he
does not close the deal tonight in Pennsylvania.
MATTHEWS: Well, thank you, Joe, thank you Harold. One reason he has
not been able to close the deal is he's running against Mr. and Mrs. Democratic
Party the last 20 years. This is real. Just moments away, right now, before
the polls in Pennsylvania will be closed, up next, NBC’s Tim Russert is going
to join us. This is MNSBC’s continuing coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
OLBERMANN: Polls close in Pennsylvania at the top of the hour. NBC’s
Washington bureau chief, the moderator of MEET THE PRESS, Tim Russert rejoins
us here. As we continue with MSNBC’s coverage of the Pennsylvania primary in
advance of those poll closings. Tim we are going to pick up where we were
before the break. Which is it, is it you can't close in the big states or is
it trajectory? Which is the key here?
TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS HOST: Clearly, he demonstrates that he can close
the gap, Keith, with advertising and campaigning. And make a race close. The
two problems he has, one, people who decide in final three days seem to break
against him. And whether that is because there is a question mark over his
head, placed by Senator Clinton, by the Republicans, by his own comments. I'm
sure its a combination of all of those. I tell you what I think the issue is.
And that's women. White women in particular. That is what prohibits Obama
from bringing this to closure. Because their support of Senator Clinton is so
solid, it just can't be peeled away. By -- I don't think anyone, any other
candidate. And if you have a white ethnic woman, high school educated, making
less than $50,000, that's rock solid Clinton supporter. If this was Obama
versus a white man, I don't think he would be having this trouble. I don't
think that the allegiance white women and in that age group have for Senator
Clinton would apply to another candidate.
And this has been an enormous benefit for her and want a shadow of that
and see her as a vehicle to do that. They believe in her. But that has been
the impediment. And so come a fall election, what will those white women do?
Obama's guess is that they will vote for him because he bases that on the
favorable unfavorable ratings he gets in all the states. It is not that they
don't like him. They just want to be part of history and they like Senator
Clinton more.
OLBERMANN: This is just way out left field. If it is Obama at the
nominee and he has this issue to deal with of the disaffected, particularly
white women who were Clinton supporters and she is not in the race, let's
assume she is not a vice presidential possibility, is there a substitute? Is
there someone that can attract that audience, that demographic as loyally? Is
there another woman? Would he go in this direction? We are way ahead of
ourselves but you just brought the point up.
RUSSERT: Great question. That's why the governor of Kansas has been
getting serious mention. That's where you start weighing the vice presidency.
Do we need a woman to appeal to the Clinton base that I have not been able to
get big states. Do I need to focus on the economy and do something like Mike
Bloomberg, the entrepreneur, the billionaire? Formally a Republican. Do I
need foreign policy credentials and do former General Anthony Zinni or Senator
Jim Webb of Virginia, is Virginia a swing state. Everything has to be on the
table. But I think that part of that component has to be how do I get those
women, those white women over 50 making less than $50,000 who voted for Hillary
Clinton two to one in every primary?
OLBERMANN: Let's have Tom Brokaw to chime in who is with us now. NBC
News special correspondent. In the moments we have before the top of the
hour. All right. you are in charge. How do you answer that one that Tim
Russert just posed?
TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: I think one of the things that they can
do, Keith, will depend a lot on how he makes the case for what he will do about
the issues that affect those women. It is not just his personal appeal but it
will be his policy as well. And to measure them against the policies of John
McCain, who would you rather have in the White House representing your
interests, John McCain or me if in fact Obama is able to win the nomination.
And as for picking a vice presidential candidate, my guess is that Tim
will agree with this, he has time. He will be playing that board now between
now and August in Denver. And he will be looking at the conditions that he
needs to fulfill the expectations he fills geographically, national security or
whether it is the economy. Or whether it is cultural, something else that pops
up at that time. But most of all, what he needs do is to secure the nomination
first.
MATTHEWS: Tom and Tim, do you think the fight between Hillary and
Barack that has gotten so personal has blanked out the chance for Barack
especially to get across an election campaign message like a tough message on
populism, the oil companies power over American life, the power special
interests, more importantly, he hasn't been able to talk about the things
Barack did, Chaka Fattah said he was going to try to raise in Pennsylvania.
Social Security, saving Social Security by raising the cap in Social Security
and guaranteeing the seniors and women that care about the seniors, Social
Security checks in perpetuity. He has not been able to raise the issues. He
has been so busy defending himself against Hillary on the Reverend Jeremiah
Wright, et cetera.
BROKAW: Well, what happens, Tim, is that Pennsylvania -- pardon me,
Chris. What happens is that Pennsylvania is over tomorrow. These primary
campaigns have a fixed life span and then they disappear. How many people can
remember what the debate was about, for example, in New Hampshire? I think
what happens in the fall and Democratic Party will depend very much on the
deportment of these two candidates and what they do with each other and to each
at the convention in Denver.
If they come out and put their arms around each other and if one raises
the hand of the other and says look, we have been through a tough process here,
but we are now all united as Democrats and it is very important for us to go
forward and to win as the Democratic Party that has great appeal to
independents in this country as well I'm here for her and she's here for me.
However, they decide the formulation, I think that they can put all of this
bitterness behind them.
RUSSERT: Chris, the interesting thing is someone very close to John
McCain said we have no illusions that after Labor Day the campaign is going to
be the economy is in recession and it is time for a change. The Iraq War is
going on more than five years. It is time for a change. Voters, the
Republicans had control of the White House for eight years. It is time for a
change. They understand that. That's why McCain is going to keep trying to
put that question over Obama's head and on social, cultural and personal issues.
OLBERMANN: Tim Russert, Tom Brokaw, thank you much. We will get back
to you later on. It is time for our change because at the top of the hour we
will have a characterization of Pennsylvania when we continue.
KEITH OLBERMANN, CO-HOST: Too close to call in Pennsylvania. At 8:00
p.m. Eastern Time with the polls there now closed, according to NBC News, the
race between Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama for the
Democratic primary in the Keystone State is indeed too close to call. Not an
extraordinary surprise.
Alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann. We begin another hour
of our coverage of the primary.
CHRIS MATTHEWS, CO-HOST: We are getting a lot sort of information, not
final results. Of course, we don’t know yet, as you said, it’s too early to
call. But we are getting a sense of what we thought was coming. New voters
are leaning towards Barack. Voters who decided in the last couple of hours, in
fact, the last couple of days to make up their minds tend to go to Hillary
Clinton. So, there are some patterns here we've seen across the country for
these 45 contests already.
OLBERMANN: And this however, of course, of all of them is "spin-
sylvania." It is depending on -- the results will be interpreted by each side
as some kind of victory regardless of what Senator Obama said earlier in the
evening, about how a victory is 50 percent of the vote plus one vote.
MATTHEWS: Somewhere in that DMZ of five to eight, I think we’re going
to see a lot of skirmishing if that’s the result tonight.
OLBERMANN: Right. Four or five, she may be out. The over/under of
seven, or that’s I see -- eight was still in the Tim Russert danger zone, nine
and 10 and she clearly stays in this thing then.
MATTHEWS: Right. Nine and 10 is a win, somewhere in the middle is a
mush.
OLBERMANN: Right. The danger zone aforementioned originating from
conversations we have with Tim Russert about two hours ago, our NBC News
Washington bureau chief, moderator of MEET THE PRESS joins us once again.
Too close to call. That's not a surprise.
TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: No, Keith. You know,
and it’s interesting, each campaign hope for a different headline. Hillary
Clinton wanted to have this projected at 8:00 o’clock: Stunning, landslide,
Pennsylvania, Clinton, on she goes, start the money coming in right now. Obama
would have preferred obviously: Stunning, upset, Obama ends candidacy. Not to
be.
And now, here comes the fun part. It's called the raw vote. The
voters actually get to decide what we're going to say. How about that for fun?
OLBERMANN: Right. And with the -- two minutes since the polls
closed, the raw vote is a nothing- nothing tie.
RUSSERT: Right.
OLBERMANN: We expect that to change but we never know. Even though
that heavy turnout it might be just a mirage. There it is. Just in case you
didn't believe me, zero, zero, and the difference of zero.
Suddenly, we devolve into "Mary Tyler Moore" episode for the
Minneapolis local city council.
RUSSERT: What’s the Keith number on that?
OLBERMANN: The Keith number is, of course, zero.
RUSSERT: OK.
MATTHEWS: You know, somewhere in New York is the guy in the middle of
the night, probably a guy trying to figure out the "Daily News" and the "New
York Post" headline for tomorrow. Is it mush? It is wet noodle? What is it
going to be?
OLBERMANN: All right. Once again, we will turn everything over to our
arbiter of such things, Tom Brokaw, NBC News special correspondent.
Is it – the fact that there’s no call at this point, is that by itself
a headline that does not serve Senator Clinton well?
TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: think it probably will
unnerve the Clinton people. I was talking to a major fund-raiser late this
afternoon, who said, the only number I'm interested in is a 10 percent
victory. I said, "Is it about money?" And the answer came back, yes.
They’re going to need a significant victory to continue to raise
money. In the words of a late California genius legislator, Jesse
Unruh: "Money is still the mother's milk of politics." They’ve got contests to
go.
Senator Clinton, it's well known had to loan her own campaign $5
million. And it’s getting tougher every week for her to raise the money
because people don't give just out of the goodness of their hearts. They’re
betting on whether or not she can win in the long haul or not. And without a
significant victory tonight in Pennsylvania, the business of raising additional
money for the contests ahead on North Carolina and Indiana which will also be
expensive, that effort will be handicapped for her a great deal if she doesn't
come out of here with a significant victory.
OLBERMANN: Is there a bailout point, Tom? Those people that you’ve
talked to, is there actually that margin which something could happen to end
this campaign in the succeeding days?
BROKAW: No. I think they are staying away from that but they’re
political realist. And they know that if you can't make the media buys and if
you can’t finance the airplanes and pay the staff, and you hit a wall of some
kind. Now, we'll see whether that happens or not.
You know, they've been running behind, as you know, Senator Obama in
raising money especially off the Internet. He's outspent them by a very
considerable margin in Pennsylvania up to this point. And money will really be
the currency of the coin of the realm here in the coming weeks.
MATTHEWS: Tim, use raised something really fascinating a couple of
minutes ago, it’s about the choreography right now. Certainly, Hillary Clinton
is doing everything she can to break this thing wide open. She's had to play
tough just to get the game started again.
But watching Barack Obama is an interesting thing to watch. You
pointed out earlier tonight that he has to be nice to Hillary Clinton, to use a
simple word, to try to give her the flexibility to come down off where she's
been, the pretender of the throne. Tell me how you see that choreography
working it’s way up the next week or so.
RUSSERT: It depends obviously what happens tonight, Chris. If, in
fact, Hillary Clinton does not have a big victory but wins barely, then you'll
see, I think, Senator Obama and his campaign trying to be extremely gracious,
making it easy for Senator Clinton to find comfort in a very difficult
decision. On the other hand, if she has a strong finish tonight and wins big,
like Governor Rendell is hoping for and working for, then, this goes on in a
very robust and vigorous way.
I want to pick up on money because it's so important. Clinton campaign
costs $1 million a day to run. The people who haven't been paid, Mark Penn,
her former chief strategist, is owed a lot of money. The Clintons are owed $5
million. You have to keep the airplanes up in the air. Television buys, not
only in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana, Obama has already bought
twice as much television as Clinton. And this is two weeks out.
So, if her money dries out and that becomes a four to one component,
then you're in a situation where you're thinking, if I want to get out or if
I’m going to have to get out, why not go out on top. I won Pennsylvania by a
few points. I will exit gracefully as a winner.
If on the other hand, it's double digits, look out. She is in this.
She tries to win Indiana. She knows she wins West Virginia and Kentucky. She
knows – she thinks she can win Puerto Rico and we go into June.
OLBERMANN: Well, right now, that only digit, again, is zero, but it
also implies on the other end of it, Tim, that Obama has to not only spend that
money on TV, but plan on it as if it all has to be nice, as if it has to be
cordial. He can't throw a punch at this point. He sure (ph) to lock in if
this is a narrow decision tonight?
RUSSERT: It depends obviously on the tone of the Clinton campaign.
But if they’re in a situation where they have not won big and they’re really
groping for money, yes, I think you’ll see a lot of superdelegates begin to
coalesce, Keith. Obama is looking for an opportunity to break out, as Chris
was describing it, of the straitjacket, of having to answer charges and
countercharges within the Democratic primary and start debating the macro
issues with John McCain. As long as Senator Clinton continues this race as a
vigorous candidate, he will not have that chance. She can only continue as a
vigorous candidate if she’s funded and she’ll only be funded with a big victory
tonight.
BROKAW: And you have to keep your eye on something else here, Keith
and Chris, and that is the superdelegates. A lot of frustration in the Obama
camp because they keep saying that the superdelegates are whispering in their
ear: We’re really with you but we want to wait for this process to go on for a
while and we’d like to have our own state vote.
I was talking to some western politicians last week and they were
saying, well, let's wait and see what they have to say in our states first
before we make a decision. They are not ready to go public with it at this
time even though they are indicating to the Obama campaign in pretty
significant numbers that they are inclined for him but they’ve seen during the
course of this campaign that we've taken some quick detours along the way. And
these are people who are interested in preserving their own political capital.
OLBERMANN: And the superdelegates glacial pace, Tom, is that also
connecting back to Tim's point about cordiality. Do they have to sort of stay
aloof to help provide Senator Clinton with a dignified climbdown if it comes to
that?
BROKAW: Well, I think what’s also happening with some of the
superdelegates who are still in the downstream states, as I described them,
superdelegates where we still have not have primaries is that they’re -- I
think, that the Obama people have played this very well, you don't want to go
against the will of the people in those states and you don't want to have a
Democratic convention in Denver which is divided between the people who voted
and the people who represent the establishment.
So, it puts them in a pretty tough position at this point and based on
the superdelegates that I’ve been talking to, the indication is that they want
to go with the will of the people in their district or in their state. That's
the safest place for them. And you've got to remember that some of them are on
the ballot again this fall and they're very cognizant of that as well.
OLBERMANN: And it's all easiest if somebody says I'm withdrawing and
that makes it so simple for everybody else. You never have to know where they
would have come down if push came to shove.
Tim, and, Tom, thanks. We will check in with you, obviously,
throughout the evening.
Let's go to the Clinton campaign headquarters in Philadelphia where
NBC’s Andrea Mitchell has been standing by. Andrea, was there is shock that
8:00 o’clock came and there was no call that said, yes, this big win has
already been scored for Senator Clinton?
ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, the insiders already
had figured that out. They've got the information. They know how close this
is.
And they've known for a couple of hours now, and looking at the exit
polls and hearing their reports from the field, that they are not going to get
most likely the big victory that they were really hoping for to push them
forward to Indiana. And as you know, what we learned this week from their old
filings to the FEC is that they’ve got have a really big cash problem. They
are in the red.
Barack Obama brought in $41 million last month. He still has $42
million cash on hand. He has clobbered them here. They’ve been pointing that
they are the underdogs here and that they don't have the money to go up against
his advertising. Of course, they’re not pointing that they came in with a 20-
point lead and that lead really evaporated.
So, there’s a lot of tension here among the professionals, among the
people on the staff, and her, you know, the top advisors because they can see
now how close this is and that they’re going to have to figure out another
rationale for going forward and for reassuring those donors.
MATTHEWS: You know, earlier tonight, Andrea, it’s Chris Matthews, I
get the sense that Governor Rendell is little edgy tonight, a little concerned
about these numbers. He’s the smartest guy around. He knows what’s going on
as fast as anyone. He may well be, it seems to me, the person that is going to
have to tell Senator Clinton, we put our best shot in here. I had every mayor
in the state behind us, we had all the clout of government behind us, and the
party apparatus, and we couldn't do it. We can't do any better than we did
here. Let's look at the facts.
Do you think he's going to play that role in the next several days if
that comes to it?
MITCHELL: Sure. Ed Rendell, the Dutch uncle. Look, he had in the
past, in the last couple of weeks, we've been here six weeks now, he’s been
saying things like she needs a big win. He was giving the rationale for her to
go on and fight this nomination out.
And if they don't get the numbers that they need out of Pennsylvania,
of course, it will be Ed Rendell, you’re actually right, and others in the
party who will go to her. He has the virtue of being friend, her loyal
supporter, and unlike Howard Dean and others, Nancy Pelosi, others that she is
much more suspicious of. If she hears it from Ed Rendell, that will like
hearing it from Terry McAuliffe and hearing it from her own husband.
OLBERMANN: One last question, Andrea, it’s quiet, it’s too quiet.
We’d just crossed the two-hour mark since anybody has gotten one of these
boastful e-mails from either the Obama campaign or the Clinton campaign. It’s
pointed out that David Axelrod was spotted at the airport as they disembarked
or embarked for Indiana wearing a t-shirt that he bought that reads "Stop the
drama, vote Obama," that within the last two hours.
But in terms of that e-mail flurry, that pre-result spin that we've
gotten every one of these primaries throughout the whole long course of this --
nothing -- silence. Where are these people, and why, not that we are not happy
not to be flooded with e-mails, but why are they so quiet?
MITCHELL: See, you’re so lucky, Keith. I am still getting those e-
mails.
OLBERMANN: I think I was just dropped from the list.
MITCHELL: And they are telling me, "Look at all the money he's got.
Look all the ads he’s got on the air. You know, if he were to, you know, come
close tonight, it’s because of all of his advertising." They just don’t have a
nerve to spin to you while you’re on the air.
OLBERMANN: No, that’s never stopped them before.
Andrea Mitchell, in Philadelphia, with the Clinton campaign, many
thanks.
Let’s check at the other end of the equation, NBC’s Lee Cowan at
Evansville, Indiana, where the Obama camp will be, I guess, reconvening
throughout the evening.
Lee, good evening.
LEE COWAN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, good evening. You can hear
the crowd now behind me here. Barack Obama is supposed to be here in about an
hour or so for a rally that will be kicked off with John Mellencamp. We should
point, he’s also going to be performing for Hillary Clinton in a short time.
But the numbers tonight are exactly what this campaign was hoping to
get. They were really hoping going into Philadelphia. They like playing the
role of the underdog. They thought if they could go in and just narrow that
just enough, maybe not to get a win but if they could bring it into single
digits, that was going to be considered a win for them. And if they can keep
it that tight tonight, then they come out of it with a lot of money.
They come into Indiana, which is a state neighboring his home state.
He’s done well in states that are in his backyard essentially. So, they think
this will really provide them the momentum they need and perhaps, this would be
the race that will wrap it all up here in Indiana.
OLBERMANN: Lee Cowan in Evansville, where, as he said, Senator Obama
is due in about an hour. We’ll be checking back with you before then and at
that time. Chris?
MATTHEWS: We have new numbers right now from our exit polling. And
for that, we go to Norah O’Donnell. Norah?
NORAH O’DONNELL, MSNBC CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: And good
evening to you, Chris, and, Keith. Andrea talked about how antsy they are
inside the Clinton campaign. Well, we’re getting a good look at why
Pennsylvania at this hour is too close to call.
Let's start with how voters are breaking by age. Well, Barack Obama is
essentially carrying the vote of those under 45 by a very healthy margin, 57
percent to 43 percent. Hillary Clinton counters with an even bigger edge among
seniors, 65 and older, she’s taking that group, look, 60 percent to Obama’s 38
percent.
Although when you look at race, Obama is carrying 90 percent of the
black vote, while Hillary Clinton is winning the white vote, 60 to 40 percent.
But Obama is proving very competitive among certain segments of the white
electorate.
Now, let's look how whites are voting by gender. Clinton support among
white women is overwhelming. She is winning by 27 points essentially. That’s
the women right over there. But white men are also a key, swing groups. There
she leads by just, look at that, 10 points, 55 percent to 45 percent.
Hillary Clinton also assiduously courted support from less affluent
blue-collar whites. Remember by pummeling Barack Obama over his "bitter"
comment, well, she is winning white voters with household incomes under $50,000
by a two to one margin, 66 percent to 34 percent, those inside numbers. But
whites with the higher income, see that, that $50,000-plus, they were closely
split: 54 percent for Clinton, 46 percent for Obama.
There are also regional patterns in support that show why this contest
is essentially is so close. Barack Obama is piling up big margins in
Philadelphia and the Philadelphia suburbs where he's getting over 60 percent of
the vote. This helps make up for his weaker position in the Pittsburgh area,
and, of course, in the rest of the state, outside essentially of the big city.
Also, what about those late deciders and the new voters that everyone
wanted to know so much about? Well, the new voters broke six out of 10 for
Obama and the late deciders – they went to Hillary by exactly the same margin.
Chris and Keith?
MATTHEWS: Thank you very much, Norah.
Let's bring in Lisa Caputo, as former press secretary for Hillary
Clinton when she was first lady and is now a senior campaign advisor.
Lisa, thank you for joining us. What is the mood in the campaign as we
sit and all wait for the numbers to pop in and come on our screen here?
LISA CAPUTO, CLINTON CAMPAIGN SR. ADVISOR: Well, is the mood is as you
can imagine, I mean, everybody is very anxious for the numbers to come in.
Everybody has been looking at early numbers. The campaign is really encouraged
by the women's vote that Norah just talked about. They’ve got a robust women's
effort as you know, Chris. And that’s really coming home to roost.
They went out extensively crisscrossing the state, doing a lot of house
parties, a lot of female senior surrogates for Senator Clinton out campaigning.
The other key thing to notice is, let's remember that Pennsylvania is
predominantly white as we've just heard and the late deciders are breaking
Hillary Clinton's way. So, that’s encouraging to the Clinton campaign, most
certainly, much in the way we saw in previous contests where the late deciders
did break for Hillary Clinton. And the campaign sees "a win is a win" here
because if she wins Pennsylvania, she's racking up yet another battleground
state, and we have yet to see Senator Obama, I think, with the exception of
Missouri win a battleground state.
MATTHEWS: Let me ask you, you grew up in Pennsylvania, right?
CAPUTO: I did.
MATTHEWS: Where?
CAPUTO: Northeastern Pennsylvania, Wilkes-Barre.
MATTHEWS: I thought so. So, you’re from Wilkes-Barre. Hillary
Clinton spent most of her summers growing up in Scranton. I thought she did a
very good job reintroducing herself as a local person. I was talking to one of
the politicians around Philadelphia for Bucks County, in fact, who told me, you
know, she’s come across as the hometown girl if you don't mind that phrase,
girl.
What do you make of it? She really did play up the gun-toting -- daddy
taught her how to shoot a gun, her father played for Penn State, her brother
played for Penn State. I thought she did a very good job becoming the local
favorite.
CAPUTO: She did. I mean, she -- I talked to a couple of reporters,
certainly in my home town, newspapers, who told me how impressed they were by
how she really drove home her roots -- her roots in Northeastern Pennsylvania
and really talked extensively about her grandfather, her father and the roots
that she had there. She spent her summers up in Scranton by one of the lakes
up there.
So, she really went all out to relate to the blue-collar people of
Northeastern Pennsylvania certainly, trying to identify with their economic
plight, driving home her economic plan. So, I think it was incredibly
effective.
MATTHEWS: Thank you, Lisa Caputo.
CAPUTO: Nice to see you, Chris.
OLBERMANN: All right. Let's get early reaction after the polls closed
just 19 minutes ago, from the Obama campaign, Congressman Patrick Murphy of
Pennsylvania joining us now.
Congressman, thanks for your time.
REP. PATRICK MURPHY, (D) PENNSYLVANIA: Thanks, Keith. I appreciate
it. And actually, I went to college in Wilkes-Barre. And my brother lives
there. And he supports Barack Obama and in fact, he’s overseas right now with
our military. And I think that’s one of the things that differentiate these
two candidates. Barack Obama had a judgment before the war to speak out
against Iraq and now, a judgment to lead our troops out of Iraq within the
first 16 months.
OLBERMANN: To what degree is that -- that does not turn up in the exit
poll as the number one issue at the moment. Obviously, it has been. It was,
certainly, when this campaign started a year and a quarter ago. What is the
feeling on the ground relative to it, less about Obama and Clinton and more
about the issue when it, perhaps, comes up and shows itself at its correct size?
MURPHY: Right. And, Keith, I think the number one issue that people
care about is change. And that people are smarter sometimes than the people
who overanalyze this stuff. The people in Pennsylvania and across our country,
Keith, understand that Iraq and the economy go hand in hand.
When you spend $3 trillion in Iraq that’s $3 trillion you can't spend
on education, infrastructure, on creating these green power manufacturing jobs
for green energy so we can wean ourselves off that foreign oil. They get it.
And that's why I think that Barack Obama has been dramatically able to cut into
Senator Clinton's lead. She was up 33 points, Keith. It’s now hopefully going
to be in single digits, and I’ll see that will be a great night for Barack
Obama..
OLBERMANN: Is there a disconnect congressman, if the number we just
saw in the exit poll is 73 percent of voters in Pennsylvania, 3/4, essentially,
say the thing they want most in their presidential candidate is to bring change
and yet what we're looking at right now is something close to a tie. It’s
certainly not 73 percent to 22 percent in the outcome of this or anything like
that. What does that say about a disconnect between the change candidate and
Senator Obama's support?
MURPHY: Well, I think you have to look -- you can't look at it in a
vacuum, Keith. You’ve got to say, look, Pennsylvania is a state where Senator
Clinton is well known. She’s a neighboring U.S. senator, just up north in New
York. The fact that the Clinton brand name here, it’s the second oldest state
in the entire country.
He had a lot of obstacles. It’s a closed primary today, so people
couldn't register or if they’re independent, they couldn't vote for Barack
Obama today. I know, I was in the train stations yesterday morning and a woman
grabbed me and she said, "Patrick, I will love to vote for Barack Obama
tomorrow but I forgot to change. I thought I could vote tomorrow but I’m an
independent." And I said, "Well, we got to get you to become a Democrat before
next November, even though you can vote on that."
But, Keith, I think people have been inspired across Pennsylvania. I
was just down in center city coming to the studio, Keith, there is a line of
people a few blocks away here, at least 65 deep waiting to vote, to cast their
vote for change. And I think, you know, if it can come within single digits,
it’s a great night for the Barack Obama campaign.
OLBERMANN: One would think, all Democrats would be saluting that, but
apparently, it’s double the 2004 primary totals. Congressman Patrick Murphy of
Pennsylvania, thanks for your time.
MURPHY: Thank you, Keith.
OLBERMANN: All right. Coming up: The word from inside of both the
campaigns, and from Howard Fineman, who is at our campaign listening post,
getting all the stuff that he promised he wouldn't tell anybody. Howard,
they’re spinning the fact that 22 minutes after the polls closed, this race is
still too close to call.
You are watching MSNBC’s continuing coverage of the Pennsylvania
presidential primary.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back to MSNBC’s coverage of the Pennsylvania primary
where it’s too close to call right now between Clinton and Obama.
Let’s check in with "Newsweek’s" Howard Fineman. He’s the author of
the new book, "The Thirteen American Arguments," and tonight, he’s talking to
the campaigns from our campaign listening post.
Howard, are the Hillary people jittery, angry? How would you describe
them?
HOWARD FINEMAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: I would describe them
exhausted, Chris, based on the ones I was talking to just a few minutes ago. I
was talking, one of the top fundraisers for Hillary Clinton and she was frankly
out of gas, hoping for a big victory tonight.
But the situation the Clinton campaign is in is, would be familiar to
all of you monopoly players out there, Barack Obama’s sort of built hotels on
Boardwalk and Park Place and has really spent the time in Pennsylvania trying
to bankrupt Hillary Clinton's campaign. I mean, it was a kind of win/win
strategy for Obama and that he wanted to keep it under 10 percent if he could.
It looks like he might. And he also wanted to force Hillary to spend, spend,
spend money that she had and money that she didn't have.
The Clinton campaign claims they have $8 million on hand. Maybe they
do, maybe they don't. But the point is, and Indiana and North Carolina, they
just don't have the cash.
North Carolina has a lot of small media markets you’ve got to campaign
in and advertise in. Indiana can be expensive, too. You’ve got to have
offices. You’ve got to have field staff. And the fund-raisers for Hillary are
reduced to the Internet.
Now, you can raise money on the Internet but they’re flat out of
bundlers and fat cats and other big money people. The person I talked to was
saying, "These people are just tapped out. There aren't any more of them. We
can only hope that we get some good news tonight so we can raise money on the
Internet."
That’s all they can do but the Internet is Obama's turf more than it is
hers.
MATTHEWS: Why don't they take all their volunteers and tell them to
drive or hitchhike to Indiana? Why does everything have to be paid for? Why
do they have to pay $4 million to Mark Penn to be a loyal Clintonite? I don't
understand this cash-and-carry politics. It used to be, in the days of Judy
Pal, how about going back to Ted Sorensen, where the brains weren't for hire.
They worked for people they believed in.
Mark Penn -- I went over this list of people this guy owes money to.
He’s got to pay Joe Wilson for his airplane ticket. I mean, Joe could have
picked up that ticket price. What is going on with this campaign?
FINEMAN: Well, Hillary does have a lot of volunteers. She has a lot
of…
MATTHEWS: So, why does she have to pay $4 million to her idea man?
FINEMAN: No, no. That can't be argued with, Chris, you are right,
because Hillary’s campaign…
MATTHEWS: By the way, his ideas were terrible.
FINEMAN: Yes.
MATTHEWS: I mean, he gave her a smart woman with an un-smart campaign
and she owes him $4 million.
OLBERMANN: Yes, no brain, no pain.
FINEMAN: That’s the problem with that because he built a micro
strategy.
MATTHEWS: Why, she could go the IRS and call that a bad debt but I can
also say I’m not paying.
FINEMAN: No, he’s the one who told her that it was a quick march to
the coronation and totally was blindsided by Barack Obama. Yes.
MATTHEWS: But I think he’s an Iraq war supporter based on his
thinking, just thinking – just guessing.
FINEMAN: Yes. The point is that Hillary had an expensive campaign
built from Washington out. She was based in Washington.
MATTHEWS: Right.
FINEMAN: With a lot of expensive talent. She does have some committed
volunteers and especially, professional women who go all over the country to
try to help her out. But there aren't enough of those people.
And my sense of what the Obama campaign is up to now, having talked to
some of the people tonight is, they want, they tried to sort of strangle her.
They tried for the kill shot in Pennsylvania. They might not have gotten it
directly with a victory but by forcing her to spend so much money in
Pennsylvania against tough advertising by the Obama people, by the way. They
really spent her into something close to oblivion. And it’s only a matter of
time in their view before she just has to run out of money.
MATTHEWS: You know, I’m trying to remember who it was when the Titanic
was launched, who said, "Not even God himself can sink this ship."
OLBERMANN: The owner and designer.
MATTHEWS: I think that was the mentality of this campaign.
Unfortunately, it did not serve her well so far. We'll see, tonight, Howard.
Thank you for that report, that listening post.
OLBERMANN: Now this campaign is the Titanic and the Iraq war.
MATTHEWS: The iceberg's name is Barack Obama.
OLBERMANN: I'm sure he has been called worse.
Up next, David Gregory and THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel racing
back to the desk to report to you. The race in Pennsylvania is too close to
call. If you're looking for numbers, there are no hard numbers yet, half an
hour after the polls closed.
MATTHEWS: Just metaphors.
OLBERMANN: And thousands of those. MSNBC's coverage of the
Pennsylvania primary continues after this. Iceberg straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
OLBERMANN: We rejoin you with MSNBC's continuing coverage of the
Pennsylvania primary. There is a slight change in terminology. This was too
close to call. This is now too early to call. NBC reporting there is a lead
for Senator Clinton in Pennsylvania. So we have a change in terminology and an
official description of this as being a lead for Senator Clinton in
Pennsylvania.
MATTHEWS: That seems to be the case because too early simply means we
are not ready to give you the results. It does not suggest a close race
anymore.
OLBERMANN: It's too early to call.
MATTHEWS: To call it a close race.
OLBERMANN: We already called it a close race enough.
Let's go back over to David Gregory and our RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
panel. David?
GREGORY: Thanks, very much, Keith. One of the things we like to do on
RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE is look inside the war room, look at some of the
numbers. I'm struck by something here, Pat. Clinton won white men 53 to 46
percent, the exit polls showing in Pennsylvania, down a bit from her margins in
Ohio. It leads me to a larger question, which is we know that these two
candidates are different coming out of Pennsylvania than when they went in.
How are they different?
BUCHANAN: Well, I think Barack is doing slightly better, but it is
still leaving this open question, the white working-class, below 50,000,
Catholic, ethnic, especially women, in the general election, do they go over to
Barack? In other words, are they voting for Hillary and are they good
Democrats, or is there resistance among them to Barack and they go the other
way? I think that is the key question for the general election in Pennsylvania
and I think in the country.
MADDOW: You know, in 2006, white working men -- in 2006, which was an
overwhelming Democratic victory -- in 2006, white working class men went for
Republicans by a 14-point margin. That is not good for Democrats. But not
being able to improve a lot on that shouldn't be fatal for any individual
Democrat.
GREGORY: Why shouldn't there be a concern about whether these
particular voters go to John McCain in the general election?
MADDOW: There is. I don't think Hillary Clinton winning 53 percent of
the Democratic primary should make you comfortable about her prospects.
BUCHANAN: This is a closed Democratic primary. If the white working
class Democratic folks -- I mean he is losing more than 50 percent -- if they
start going across, it is over.
MADDOW: Why is it a big story for somebody to get 53 percent and
somebody to get 47 percent. She got 53 percent of white men. Why is that even
a story?
ROBINSON: It is the question you ask is the right question. What
portion of those voters have a resistance to Barack Obama and what portion are
voting because they like Hillary Clinton, but will come back to Barack Obama?
We don't know the answer to that. We have not sliced the salami that thin to
know that.
BUCHANAN: Barack is beginning to hurt because he was ten points ahead
of McCain and now it is even.
(CROSS TALK)
GREGORY: Let me get in here to ask this question. Is Barack Obama a
fundamentally weaker candidate after all the vetting that Hillary Clinton
talked about? She said everything is fair game, Reverend Wright, other
questions about his leadership. Is he a weaker candidate now?
BUCHANAN: He is because of the Reverend Wright thing in Pennsylvania,
because of the flag pin thing, because of this bitter comment, because of the
elitism, the suggestion these people are hung up on their bibles and guns. If
you think it is a problem in Pennsylvania, you wait until you get to Virginia.
You wait until you get into the south. You wait until you get into Texas.
ROBINSON: Compared to what? Compared to whom? Is he a weaker
candidate against John McCain?
BUCHANAN: Yes.
ROBINSON: We don't know that. We don't know that. Wait until a
Democrat gets a little space to go to work on John McCain. Then we'll know.
GREGORY: Let's talk about Hillary Clinton. Let's talk about how she
is different coming out of this race. She has dealt in this Pennsylvania
campaign with this question of her own credibility and trustworthiness. She
has to come out of here weaker, despite the fact she may come out with a
victory.
MADDOW: The character stuff, the trustworthy stuff, the gotcha stuff
certainly has taken a toll on both candidates. That was going to happen in the
general election anyway. Three concrete differences with Hillary Clinton right
now. Number one, she is broke. Number two, her negatives are way up from the
attacking stuff. Number three, she has come out of the closet as a full
throated, we will obliterate you, we will attack Iran hawk. The we will attack
Iran stuff is huge. She has done that on the occasion of this all important
Pennsylvania contest.
GREGORY: We're going to leave it there. A lot more on this ahead, as
well. Gentlemen, back to you.
MATTHEWS: David, thanks. Up next, the insiders, Joe Scarborough and
Harold Ford, with their reaction to the race Pennsylvania, which is now too
early to call, but with Senator Clinton in the lead. You are watching MSNBC's
live coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTHEWS: It's too early to call in Pennsylvania between Barack Obama
and Hillary Clinton. Although, Senator Clinton does have the lead in first
results coming in. In other words, we know as much now as we knew about six
weeks ago. Let's bring back the insiders, former Congressman Joe Scarborough
and Harold Ford. Joe.
JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC ANCHOR: Thanks so much, Chris. Harold, if this
race is closer than the Clintons expected and the pundits expected, there is
going to be a lot of pressure among Democrats to get Hillary Clinton out of the
race. Let's do some more role playing. If you are the one put in charge of
going to Bill Clinton and say, you need to talk your wife out of this race,
what argument do you make tonight?
FORD: First of all, that is one heck of a job to give me. I say two
or three things, one, the money is going to dry up after this evening if she
hadn't won big. You're going to have a big problem. All you can do is to
challenge him, take on Barack and you hurt us.
Number two, he has brought so many new voters into the fold. It is
questionable whether or not your wife can hold him. Two, if you continue to
attack or she continues to attack or the campaign does, how does he remain as
strong as he possibly can? Three, we believe we can win more down state races
with him with on the ticket on the fall. We are asking you, as politely as we
can, to give serious consideration to move aside.
That's going to be a tough argument to make if she wins big tonight,
which looks, if the numbers are to be believed at this point -- she's going to
enjoy maybe a little larger victory than some had anticipated.
Let me flip it for one moment. Gas prices are at 3.50. We're in the
Republican cloak room. President Bush has a 70 percent disapproval rating.
John McCain is tied to him a bit. The economy in the position it is in. How
do you as a Republican, how does John McCain counter, whether it's Barack or
Hillary, all the excitement that they generated, and the clear discontent some
in the country feel with at least the Republican leadership in the White House
today?
SCARBOROUGH: I think a lot of Republicans say, there is good news and
there is bad news, if we're inside the Republican cloakroom. Republicans in
the cloak room will say, can you believe how elitist Barack Obama is sounding?
That San Francisco fund-raiser -- he says, people cling to guns and Jesus
because they are bitter. Boy, that sounds just like it is out of the Michael
Dukakis playbook. Ad Reverend Wright on top of that, add the fact he’s got
highest liberal voting record according to the "National Journal."
Boy, we are going to be able to paint this guy into the corner and
he'll look like Dukakis by the time we are done with him. That's one side of
him.
FORD: You think the narrative of new versus old may help Barack in the
fall, just looking at what he may run on and how he may position, not only his
narrative, but his campaign, if it is Barack?
SCARBOROUGH: What they are saying in the Republican cloak room is it
may be new versus old, but the bottom line is Barack Obama sounds just like an
old line liberal, the most liberal voting record. Then they will tick down
these lists. Now, at the same time, somebody will stand up and say, but, boys,
we've got a problem. Look at Pennsylvania. Look at Bucks County, look at
Montgomery County, look at Chester County.
These are all the Philadelphia suburbs where Republicans have to win to
win state-wide. They have all broken Democratic and the big number tonight,
300,000. Regardless of whether you are a Clinton supporter or an Obama
supporter, if you're a Democrat, you have 300,000 more Democrats on the rolls
in Pennsylvania. So even if we lose -- you know what, we'll go ahead and lose
some of those bowlers, some of those beer drinkers, some of those hunters.
Guess what? We're going to get a lot of suburban Republican house wives voting
for Barack Obama this fall, the soccer moms. They're going to break our way.
For every white blue collar voter we lose in central Pennsylvania, we
pick up a white suburban mom in the Philadelphia suburbs. We'll take that
trade every day of the week.
FORD: Even with the money advantage that Barack or Hillary may have,
versus the two to one turnout amongst -- Democrats compared to Republicans in
all these key states, you feel you'll be able to break some of those suburban
households, soccer moms, who clearly are attracted to both Barack and Hillary,
probably Barack more. Give me a little bit on Hillary. They've got to think
she is not out of this either. How do you counter her, if she is able to come
back and overcome what many thought would be an insurmountable lead that Barack
has developed up to this point?
SCARBOROUGH: Hillary Clinton is also easier to paint in the corner.
Here is the problem with Hillary Clinton: she won -- again, you look at those
Reagan Democrats that Republicans need to win these races, tonight in
Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton's won Catholics two to one. Hillary Clinton's
won blue collar voters easily. Hillary Clinton's also -- what is the other
one? Hillary Clinton's also won women two to one.
FORD: And elderly voters, it looks like.
SCARBOROUGH: It looks like she is running away with elderly voters
over 65, who are the most reliable Democratic voters every fall. They are
breaking Hillary Clinton's way in a big way. There are a lot of those Reagan
Democrats that John McCain needs to win that he doesn't win against Hillary
Clinton, that he may have a shot of winning against Hillary Clinton.
I didn't speak as clearly as I should have before. What I was
suggesting before was that while Hillary may be able to pick up those blue
collar voters, Barack Obama may be able to win some Republican voters over in
the Philadelphia suburbs that can counter balance any blue collar voters she
loses in the center of the state.
FORD: If you had to place a bet in the Republican cloak room on the
Democrat or John McCain winning in the fall, who would you put your money on?
SCARBOROUGH: Is there a reporter in the cloakroom? It's a Democratic
year. Boys, duck. It is going to be ugly in the fall. Back to you, Chris, on
that happy note.
MATTHEWS: Thank you, Joe. Thank you, Harold.
OLBERMANN: One addendum to that, if you compare -- maybe we'll do this
later on at some point -- Ohio, which is a very similar demographic state to
Pennsylvania, Obama is still getting clocked in many of those key areas, like
seniors, white men. But the Obama camp would point out that the numbers have
improved over Ohio and significantly so.
All right, let's stick to this one. We get the latest numbers from our
exit polls. Again, we turn to Norah O'Donnell for that. Norah?
O'DONNELL: Good evening again to you, Chris and Keith. Both
candidates have had to deal with particular lines of attack from their
opponent. For Clinton, there have been the charges of dishonesty and lack of
trustworthiness. For Obama, elitism. Well, how did Pennsylvania voters weigh
these criticisms? Let's take a look at the numbers.
About honesty, 68 percent of voters today said Obama is honest and
trustworthy; about 56 percent say that is true of Hillary Clinton. The
advantage on this question goes to Obama. We've seen that in the national
polls. On the economy -- it was the top issue among Pennsylvania Democratic
voters today. They expressed more confidence in Hillary Clinton, you see, on
that big issue. Three quarters, 74 percent say she can improve the economy.
Fewer, but, more importantly, still a pretty large majority, 65 percent say
Barack Obama has the right stuff to make economic improvements.
I'm going to send it back to you, Chris and Keith.
OLBERMANN: Norah, great thanks. We are still at the situation where
there is very little in terms of an actual vote count in at one percent. It is
still too early to call, having started at too close to call. A subtle
variation, but meaning a great deal in terms of what the camps are perceiving
at this point. There it is. Too early to call. One percent of the vote in,
literally 21,000 to 14,000 or so in the hard numbers right now at this point.
MATTHEWS: NBC News Washington bureau chief Tim Russert is the
moderator of "Meet The Press." Also with us NBC News special correspondent Tom
Brokaw. Tom, I'm looking at this pattern coming in here now of western
Pennsylvania being more Hillary, eastern Pennsylvania, going south from
Scranton being more pro-Barack Obama. How does that fit into the old patterns
of Teddy Kennedy versus Carter, et cetera?
TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: I remember that very
well. Carter had hoped to stop Teddy Kennedy in Pennsylvania in 1980. But
Allegheny County came through for Ted Kennedy. He won in Pennsylvania. The
race had to go all the way to New York. I was talking earlier about the
importance of these two candidates on the stage in Denver, raising their arms
together and saying, whoever wins, we go forward. We had a couple of bad
dates, but we now think we can have some kind of a marriage.
We are about to have a decision. Projected winner, Hillary Clinton in
Pennsylvania. Now the issue, of course, Chris and Keith, is what's the number
that she wins by? Can I just pick up on something else?
MATTHEWS: Sure.
BROKAW: On the economy, which was the most important part, Hillary
Clinton was winning by three and a half to four points. Can she solve the
economy? she was doing better than Obama 64 to 36 percent, and she wins all
but the highest and lowest income groups. That should auger well for her
quantitatively, as well as qualitatively in Pennsylvania tonight, but we'll
have to see what that number is.
I didn't mean to steal your thunder by projecting her as the winner.
OLBERMANN: No, Tom, you take over the Chuck Todd role. We usually
assign to Chuck when we want a call to be made. We have gone in 50 minutes
from too close to call to too early to call. Now, at three percent of the vote
and our exit polling, combining to say that Hillary Clinton has won -- or will
win the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania.
The margin is, as Tom just pointed out, the essential issue.
Obviously, this changes the complexion of what the evening looks like in the
two camps.
MATTHEWS: Tim, they can't go to bed on that number we're looking at.
That's the raw vote coming in, 55-45. We have no idea how this is going to end
up a at midnight. Isn't that the big question as we go to bed? Tim? Oh, Tim,
I'm sorry, Tom.
BROKAW: I'll take the part of Tim.
MATTHEWS: OK.
BROKAW: Yes, I think it is still the big question. The Clinton people
right now are on the telephone to potential fund-raisers and people who have
been there in the past, saying, look, she has won Pennsylvania. This is a big
victory for us. They want to get ahead of whatever that margin is going to be
so that they can try to raise some money, because it is now a money game
tonight, as well as a delegate game, and a calendar game about where we go from
here.
They need to raise money coming out of Pennsylvania. A lot of their
success will depend on her margin of victory tonight. But, in fact, she won
Pennsylvania, as she won Ohio, as she won New York and California and Texas.
She can claim that she's the big state victor in this campaign for the
Democratic presidential nomination.
OLBERMANN: All right, Tom. Let's, in fact, see how this is faring at
the headquarters at the Clinton campaign in Philadelphia. Andrea Mitchell is
standing by. We are told to look at the two banners in the distance that both
read HillaryClinton.com as fund raising efforts, obviously, revivify. Is that
the word at the moment, Andrea, revivified?
ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely, money, money,
money. About a half hour ago, Terry McAuliffe, who is a cheerleader, came to
me and said, look, Ed Rendell is telling us that our voters are coming in late
and that we are going to pull this off. They didn't no margins, but that they
were going to win. He said remember what I told you in Ohio, where we ended up
with ten points. As I talked to more and more of these Clinton people, they
think their vote is going to come in. As you can see, at least the projection
is there for them. Now they have to prove the margin, because they are out of
money and have to focus on fund raising.
They may not have the full win behind them that Bill Clinton was
talking about last night at their last rally, but they are feeling a whole lot
better right now.
OLBERMANN: Does that threshold number of where it's still a
substantial victory, does that lower because it took an hour to call it? Does
it jump up? What is the psychology of this, never mind the actual hard
numbers?
MITCHELL: I don't think it changes that dynamic. It's just that now
we have to look at the hard numbers. As to whether the over/under is eight or
seven or ten, they are going to spin it that a win is a win, no matter what
those numbers are. The money people will look at this and say, if she is eight
or nine or ten, that is a big deal. But if it is less than that, they are
still going to say that her campaign is in a lot of trouble and limps out of
Pennsylvania, instead of leaping out of Pennsylvania.
OLBERMANN: So this underscores Tom Brokaw's point that right now is
the time when the calls are being made to the would-be donors, saying, look, we
won. Let's get that money in here before the final score comes up?
MITCHELL: Absolutely. As they head to Indiana, they are going to be
having money meetings with donors in Washington, D.C. tomorrow and again on
Thursday. So they are meeting with all their people and trying to get more
money out of them. The problem that they have, of course, is that their
donors, more of their donors have maxed out at 2,300 a piece. Barack Obama has
two million people in his database that he can go back to. That's where the
difference is. That's where she is going to have a harder and harder time if
she tries to go on, as she will obviously now try to go on toward Indiana and
North Carolina.
OLBERMANN: Let's turn to Tom about that. There is a sense that the
wolf or the, in this case, perhaps, the Wolfson at the door has been staved
off. Is that not a continuing problem, as Andrea suggests, Tom?
BROKAW: It is. I think what the Clinton people understand more
clearly than we do even that they have a harder time expanding their base than
Senator Barack Obama does. He is bringing in not just new voters from the
Democratic party, but he continues to pull across the line Republicans as
well.
There are some numbers tonight that are interesting from our exit
poll. Before January were you registered as a Republican; by a margin of 55 to
40 percent, Senator Obama won those voters. Did you switch to the Democratic
party in Pennsylvania just to vote in this primary; he won that 61-36. New
Democrats 60 to 38 for Obama. These are people who registered for the first
time and they did so as Democrats.
Senator Clinton does not have that expanding base. She has pretty much
a fixed base. We have been talking about them for a long time. This state is
very emblematic of her base. White women of a certain age and working class
blue collar males, as well as working class women, older voters as well. The
traditional Democrats have gone for Senator Clinton.
But, again, the economy was primary in the minds of these Pennsylvania
voters, and Senator Clinton was deemed by most of them to be the person best
equipped to solve that. They will be using that in the fund raising calls,
saying, look, people in Pennsylvania didn't just vote for her. They said, by a
factor of 93 percent, she is the most experienced candidate in the race and she
is best able to solve the economic problems that will be numero uno come the
fall.
OLBERMANN: So there are numbers still to throw at those would be
donors. But there is, as we are using another sports analogy -- there is a
salary cap problem for the Clinton campaign that the Obama campaign does not
have. Even though we have just had this call done in the last couple of
minutes, I will pick up with you on that in a minute, Tom. But Howard Fineman
at the campaign listening post is indicating there is already reaction among
super delegates of his acquaintance.
Let's turn to Howard now. I thought we were waiting for the percentage
to see what the super delegates think. They have all decided?
FINEMAN: No. I think the calls are going out to the super delegates.
There are six members of Congress who are undecided, undeclared, and said, wait
a minute, we are holding off until we see what happens in Pennsylvania. Now
that Hillary has been declared the winner, those calls are going out right
now. The arms are being twisted right now.
We're talking about people like Mike Doyle of Pittsburgh, a Democrat,
Bob Brady of Philadelphia and others, who are undeclared, who said, wait a-
minute, Hillary, wait a minute, Barack, let's see what happens in the vote.
Hillary has to come across with some new super delegates, Keith. Barack Obama
has been playing them out one day after another after another.
Remember, Tom Brokaw saying six weeks ago they had 50 or 60 of them in
their pocket. The Obama people played a lot of them out. Hillary has had very
few super delegates to brag about. Now, with this victory in Pennsylvania,
she's got to come across not only with some money and not only with renewed
fund raising, but with some conversions or some convictions among super
delegates, who have stayed on the fence until now.
There are six members of Congress and a member of the DNC from
Pennsylvania, who are going to be under tremendous pressure now, from Ed
Rendell and from the Clinton campaign and Bill Clinton and others, to come for
Hillary. It's not going to be easy to convince them but they're going to try.
OLBERMANN: Is the answer not uniformly in that situation, let's see
what the percentage is? We are not buying a pig in a poke -- I'm not going to
finish that analogy. It sounds really unfortunate and it is. You know what
I'm saying.
FINEMAN: Of course. They're going to say, wait a minute, let's look
at the district results. It's going to depend district by district as well.
There is a lot arguing to do. But the calls are going out right now.
MATTHEWS: Howard, the question is, how does a guy like Bob Brady, who
is also the county chairman of the Democratic party in Philadelphia, who said
that they will not overrule the elected delegates at the convention, how can he
come out now as a super delegate and endorse Hillary?
FINEMAN: They're going to ask him to. That's the point. They're
going to say, look, we want you now. You were waiting to see what the results
were. They are going to answer back, in some cases, let's look at my
district. Let's look at the bottom line at the end of the convention. Some of
these people are going to want to stay uncommitted, if they can.
My only point is Hillary is desperate to have some super delegate
conversions or ones that she has managed to make the sale for. She has only
gotten 12 of them. She is still ahead in total. But since Super Tuesday, she
has only gotten 12 new super delegates. Obama's gotten 83. She has to use
this to pick up a few people in a place like Pennsylvania, because that's part
of the ground war of this going forward to Denver.
MATTHEWS: OK, it's 9:00 on the east coast right now. NBC News
projects that Senator Clinton will be victorious in Pennsylvania when all the
votes are counted late tonight. The big question right now, and it is the
question of the night, what will be the final margin of victory for Senator
Clinton?
Let's bring in David Gregory and THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel.
DAVID GREGORY, CO-HOST: Thank you very much, Chris.
We look this, Pat Buchanan, there's a headline here. You talk about
it before. The average voter looks at this. Hillary Clinton is in this
game. She's got a victory here.
PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: She sure does. And everyone
is talking about money, but as Napoleon says, "The moral is to the
material as three is to one." She's going to come out of here, maybe
not with a great victory but with enthusiasm, energy, and fire.
If she goes out to Indianapolis and get a crowd, her people are
going to be on fire. Now, that can't overcome this superdelegate hard
count but I do think she's alive in Indiana. She's got a fighting
chance there. She's going on but it is still hard to see even with this
victory, how she takes the nomination away from Barack.
GREGORY: So, Rachel, you're in the Obama camp tonight. What are
you worried about? You've been concerned about the fact that you want
to get superdelegates out there. I see Robert Gibbs on the (INAUDIBLE)
blog and he's got this - the page blog, that's got, "Stop the drama,
vote Obama." It gets hard to make that argument to the superdelegates
if she scores a victory here tonight. We're still waiting on the margin
and that will tell us a lot. So, what do you worry about?
RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, one of the old things
the Obama campaign has had, they seem to have had this kind of reservoir
of superdelegates up their sleeve, that anytime anything bad happens,
they sprinkle out a few more superdelegate endorsements, that's been one
of the great under the radar things they've done in terms of their
techniques.
What I do worried about if I were them is that if I don't have
anymore up the sleeve at this point. Because if Hillary Clinton does do
well today, just winning, we've been saying, well, I'm the only one
who's saying, one vote is enough. Everyone else is saying she needed 10
points. If the swing goes her way, then, Obama better have something
(INAUDIBLE).
GREGORY: She has got to raise money. That's her victory has to
mean. Even now, while waiting for the spread, she has got to turn this
into actual dollars because she will run out of money. She will bleed
to death in this campaign.
EUGENE ROBINSON, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: She will. And I think we
do have to see the spread. If it's, you know, if it's 10 points, she's
able to raise money. If it ends up being four or five points, she can't
get a whole lot. But if I'm Obama, what I'm worried about is Indiana.
That's the, you know, I think, I'm pretty sure I have North Carolina in
my pocket. I'm going to do well there. I don't want her to get
momentum and threaten Indiana.
BUCHANAN: He has outspent her in Ohio and Texas and in
Pennsylvania, and he's lost all three. Now, he's going to need more
than just money because she's going to get some out there. And you're
right. He ought to look very seriously...
ROBINSON: He has $41 million. He has a lot of money.
BUCHANAN: He has that on April 1, a lot of that went into
Pennsylvania right down the chute.
(CROSSTALK)
GREGORY: (INAUDIBLE) here, Rachel. Now, we're getting into that.
MADDOW: This is a two-person race. What he did with all that money
in Pennsylvania is he broke Hillary Clinton's bank. She is in debt.
He's still up $40 million. That was money well spent if I'm Obama's
finance director.
BUCHANAN: A double digit defeat is what he is now.
GREGORY: And maybe if he -- if he is weaken coming out of this,
maybe she's also weaken and he's got enough reserves to keep going.
More to come on this come, more reaction as we await the spread.
Back to you, gentlemen.
KEITH OLBERMANN, CO-HOST: All right, David. We interrupt the
Hillary Clinton telethon and go back to NBC's Washington bureau chief
and moderator of MEET OF THE PRESS, Tim Russert.
And here it is. The number right now is obviously going to change.
But we're now down to Hillary Clinton 52 percent, Barack Obama 48
percent. Were it to finish there, Tim, is that enough for this to
continue or not?
TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: I think, Keith, that
that will be considered so close. You'll have some superdelegates who
will move to try to put an end to it. I wonder how the fund-raising
mechanism will kick into high gear.
The interesting thing is that people who are looking at these
numbers closely, Keith, still don't know what the margin is going to
be. They're saying anywhere from five to 12. And so, we wait and we
wait and we count and we count. The one thing we do know is that this
race is not ending tonight.
Senator Clinton will proclaim victory. She'll have a spirited
celebration, trying to take on the aura of a huge victory no matter what
the margin is and crank up that Internet fund-raising machine, hoping to
go on to Indiana and pull off another victory. That's the one thing we
do know. She is not going to get out of this race even if she now wins
by any where as low as five and certainly not as high as 12.
OLBERMANN: All right. So, the number is just changing again, at
53-47. So, it's six points right now since we talked before. Is six
points enough for her to continue?
RUSSERT: So, round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody
knows. Look, the bottom line, she has won Pennsylvania. She's going to
go forward. How aggressive a campaign, how robust a campaign depends on
how much money she can raise, and that's how she is going to make an
impression on the superdelegates.
What she hopes to say to the superdelegates tonight, Keith, is this
is the first race we've had since the "bitter" comments, since the
Reverend Wright video. Democrats are nervous. Democrats are anxious.
A lot has changed since Iowa. This race has been recast. It started anew.
Never mind the delegate count. Never mind the cumulative popular
vote. Let's think of the feel you have for this race. Think of the
sense of history. Who can carry the big Electoral College state?
We are going to hear that tonight and for the next two weeks nonstop.
OLBERMANN: And what do you hear from the Obama people? What are
they saying? Are they saying, well, look, in the same six week-span, he
cut the margin there from 20 percent to tonight's final score, six,
seven, eight -- whatever it is?
RUSSERT: You are prescient, exactly right. We are down by 20, we
cut it in half or perhaps more. We have held the lead of elected
delegates. She only gave a handful of delegates because of the
proportional allocation. She lost (ph) in the popular vote, we're still
way ahead. We won twice as many contests. Are you dare going to try to
change the rules and tear the nomination away from Barack Obama, the
first African-American potential Democratic nominee and give it to
someone who didn't score as many delegates?
That's the case that's going to be made, but two weeks from tonight,
Keith, North Carolina is essential to Barack Obama, to show that he can
win a state post "bitter," post Reverend Wright, and Indiana a real
battleground. If he can beat her in Indiana, it could very well shut
down this campaign one more time. We'll throw that out there. But if
she wins Indiana, all bets off are. It is on to West Virginia,
Kentucky, Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota, Guam and so forth.
MATTHEWS: Tim, I still go back to the question of how we started
the evening, which is if she can't reset the table, if Hillary Clinton
can cause an eruption in the pattern of this campaign away from Barack
Obama winning most elected delegates, winning the most popular votes in
the primary season and caucus season, what does all this avail?
RUSSERT: Chris, what she's trying to do is all these six weeks is
put that question mark, I've been talking about, on top of Barack
Obama's head. She hopes tonight she lights it up. Flashing for
Democrats, warning signs, there's trouble here. He can't win the
Democratic constituency groups he needs to win in order to beat John McCain.
MATTHEWS: But he's gone from 20 back to perhaps closing within six
or seven. We don't know that and if he's done that, how can you
foreclosure an option he had before tonight?
RUSSERT: Well, that's going to be the counterargument. And also,
the Obama people will keep saying, "Just a second. Slow down on the
spin and momentum. Think about the hard facts. We have more elected
delegates. That's who nominates these candidates. We have a higher
cumulative popular vote. We won more states."
It's going to be spin, spin, spin, so heavy tonight, to see who can
capture the headline tomorrow because whoever captures the headline,
captures the momentum. Whoever captures the momentum, if it's Clinton,
captures the money and resources to keep her campaign alive, because
it's on life support unless she's able to raise the money from the Internet.
OLBERMANN: Yes, it's 8 percent now, Tim, is that enough for them to
go on?
MATTHEWS: Well, that was my line. Let's go to - thank you very
much, Tim.
Let's go right now to Philadelphia and the Clinton headquarters in
the city of brotherly love, with Terry McAuliffe, who is chairman of the
Clinton campaign.
Terry, I'm trying to find a metrics here for figuring out who picks
the Democratic nominee, will it be -- Bob Brady said to me the other day
on television, the chairman of the city committee, that the Democratic
Party cannot deny this nomination to the person who wins the most
elected delegates. Your response.
TERRY MCAULIFFE, CLINTON CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: Well, Chris, I've got
to tell you, first of all, it's very hard to hear in here. Most of the
networks have now all called it for Hillary's. So, it's an absolute
bedlam up here.
But let me just say, listen, by the time we finish this process,
Hillary Clinton will move ahead in the popular vote. This was a big win
tonight. She won here in Pennsylvania. We were outspent three to one.
They ran negative ads against her.
And you know what? She overcame all that. Why? Because the voters
trust Hillary Clinton. They think she'll do a better job at getting
this economy straightened out. She can deal with the international
crisis around the world. She is prepared to be president of the United
States of America. And people are ready, I'm sure HillaryClinton.com,
people are fired up.
This is a great campaign. Hillary Clinton has proven she's winning
the states we have to win in the general election. Pennsylvania, Ohio,
Michigan, Florida. These are the states that Hillary Clinton has won
and we, as Democrats, need to win the general election.
MATTHEWS: Give me the number if you can of popular vote plurality
tonight, you need to march toward a popular vote victory by mid June.
MCAULIFFE: Well, first of all, Chris, let's be clear. I always
count Florida in the numbers, obviously, 300,000 votes. The difference
was 699,000. You take 300,000 down from that of Florida.
We're going to have a win here tonight. I feel good about where we
are, West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico, were off to Indiana and North
Carolina next. There are still about 8 million register Democrats in
the upcoming nine contests. There are still close to 600 after tonight,
650 to 750 delegates still to be chosen.
This thing is a long way to go. It is Hillary's message on jobs, on
health care that propelled this victory here tonight. They threw
multiple "kitchen sinks" at her. And, Chris, I'm here with you, once
again, saying, Hillary Clinton pulled it off. And more importantly, the
voters here in Pennsylvania pulled it off for us.
MATTHEWS: Well, congratulations. I'd just want to know what the
scorecard is. Is it elected delegates or is it popular vote counting
Florida in the primaries and caucuses? What's your scorecard?
MCAULIFFE: Well, who knows? It could be a combination of it all.
But I will say at the end of this process, Chris, we will have moved
ahead of the people who went and vote in these primaries and caucuses.
She will have a majority of their votes. The delegates are going to be
very close.
And at the end, Senator Obama needs superdelegates. We need
superdelegates. And they're going to have to make the decision, who is
it that is best prepared to take on John McCain in the general election.
Hillary Clinton, she has won California, Texas, Florida, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Michigan, New York, New Jersey. She's won the big
states. These are the states that are really going to fire up the
Democratic folks to help us beat John McCain this November.
MATTHEWS: What time do you expect the senator to speak to her
supporters tonight, Terry?
MCAULIFFE: I think she will be out very shortly, probably about a
half an hour or so.
MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you very much, Terry McAuliffe, the chairman
of the Clinton campaign for president.
MCAULIFFE: Thanks, Chris. Good to be with you.
MATTHEWS: Thank you, sir.
Let's get back to the insiders. Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford,
what do you make of that? I mean, Terry is one of the great
cheerleaders of all time. He is the new Bob Strauss. Is that for
real? He doesn't know the margin yet and he is celebrating. Is that
appropriate?
JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC HOST: Harold, let me ask you, Harold, they
won again. Is that appropriate?
HAROLD FORD, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: He's changed the metric. You
had to listen very closely. And we on this network and other networks
have talked a lot about delegates and elected delegates. But he's done
two things effectively this evening. One, he's made clear the popular
vote should count more than the elected delegate vote. He believes her
argument about preparedness for the job is leading to this.
So, the question then becomes for superdelegates: Are you interested
in the popular vote or the elected delegate vote? And in the Democratic
Party, with our history of electoral votes and popular vote and what
happened eight years ago in Florida, it's going to be interesting how
this plays out. As a superdelegate, the first question that Joe asked
of what will happen in the Democratic cloakroom, there will be a lot of
interesting questions and back-and-forth being done.
SCARBOROUGH: But Harold, bottom line is this though, we sit around
that cloakroom. We're Democrats. What are we interested in? Are we
interested in who won the most delegates? Who won the most votes? Or
who's going to beat John McCain in the fall?
We want to win in the fall. If there is a split decision, and we
look the fact that he couldn't put her away in New Hampshire, he
couldn't put her away in Texas, in Ohio, on Super Tuesday, in
Pennsylvania, in any of these states. We're going to start thinking,
this guy Obama doesn't have the knockout punch, right?
FORD: We look at two things. One, to your question, to try to
answer it specifically, one is how did he do in my state? How did she
do in my state from a vote standpoint? All these elected delegates, no
Democrat or Republican, for that matter most smart Americans have no
clue how Democrats apportion delegates. What they do know is popular vote.
And then, two, you look at whether or not he or she can beat John
McCain in your state and you look a little bit nationally. That will be
the question going forward for Democrats.
My message to my friend Barack Obama tonight is very simple: You
have to win Indiana. You've got to not only win there but you've got to
go on North Carolina and steam roll there as well. I don't know how you
win Indiana, you've got to win it.
SCARBOROUGH: Harold, how do you explain why you give that message
to Barack Obama? Because you and I both know, politicians, they love
winners. They like people that know how to run a campaign, that know
how to raise money, that know how to turn that into votes.
Here, you know, in these cloakrooms, in the Republican cloakroom,
and in the Democratic cloakroom tomorrow morning, people are going to be
saying, this doesn't make sense. He's raising $40 million. He's
outspending her four to one. He's doing that in Texas, Ohio, and
Pennsylvania and he's still losing.
Harold, would you as a politician rather have money or votes? I
take the votes.
FORD: I think a lot of people will take votes. If you look at
though, Barack put together 11 wins in a row in February. He clearly
knows how to do this.
It now becomes just a different game. Everyone's got to step back,
Clinton and Obama, stop complaining about some of these attacks, roll
your sleeves up, talk about these gas prices, talk about jobs, talk
about Iraq, talk about what you will do to overhaul the military. Put
all the criticism and the nonsense and the pettiness aside and go right
after voters.
SCARBOROUGH: OK. And you go right to voters.
Let's talk about Hillary Clinton though. You're Hillary Clinton.
You've won another huge state. CBS has now canceled that debate. If
you are Hillary Clinton, do you get up tomorrow morning and say, you
know what, Barack Obama, you can't win the big states. You talked about
how this should be a campaign of issues, let's have another debate. I
challenge you to a debate once a week between now and Indiana.
FORD: You're spot on. Not only do you challenge him for a debate,
you make clear to your donors, if Barack won't debate me I need more
money to get my message out, to travel across Indiana. I can hear and
read it already coming out in the morning from that campaign. She needs
to do that. But she shouldn't over-read and overstate this victory tonight.
It was expected. He cut into the lead. If I were her, I'd do the
same thing. I'm suggesting she'd need to roll up the sleeves, get in
Indiana, talk about the economy. Tom Brokaw was right earlier. It is
clear the economy is guiding, directing, and dominating the voters'
minds in Indiana, I should say Pennsylvania and Ohio. And more likely
than not, you will see that same focus in Indiana.
SCARBOROUGH: But, you know, Harold, the thing is though, everybody
denied you're hearing on all the channels, everybody is talking about
money. Oh, Barack has all the money. Barack has all the money. He's
got $40 million.
But it seems to me that cuts Hillary Clinton's way in this effect.
I mean, what would you say if you were outspent four to one and you
still won a race and you may won it in double digits, you would say, you
know, he's got all the money, he's got all the advantages and I'm still
winning. What's wrong with that guy? Would you make that argument?
FORD: There's no doubt about it. She will make that argument. You
look at what Mike Huckabee did in Iowa with little money, he won. Money
is critical and there's no doubt about it. Barack will have an
advantage in Indiana. He's got to use it effectively if he wants to
hold on not only to the popular vote lead, but hold on to those
superdelegates who'd been with him.
This is not a cryptic or for that matter even dark message to him.
We're now in a serious joint Democratic primary campaign. He's up
against the most formidable foes and -- I should say, challengers in the
Democratic Party in Bill and Hillary Clinton. There's no need to
complain about it. Step forward, lay out your message, put on the
armor, and get ready for what would be another three to four-week fight
for this Democratic nomination.
I think it still good for Democrats though. I think it's great all
of this attention is on us. So, I'm not concerned about that.
SCARBOROUGH: There's no doubt it really is. It is great for the
Democratic Party. People are wringing their hands, this keeps the
attention on two incredibly gifted candidates. But you know what,
Harold Ford? The one thing we learned tonight, you talked about it last
hour, Barack Obama can have all the money in the world, all the money
the Internet can bring in, but unless he does what you did in Tennessee
and rolls up his shirt sleeves and learn to connect with blue-collar
Democrats, he's not going to put Hillary Clinton away. Chris?
FORD: He's got to do better than me because I lost. He's got to do
a little better than me because...
SCARBOROUGH: OK, very good. Chris, I give it back to you.
MATTHEWS: Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford, thanks a lot.
OLBERMANN: Harold, bringing a little voice of reason and some facts
to "spin-sylvania." Let's look now to NBC News political director,
Chuck Todd. He's with us again to talk about pledge delegates by the
numbers. Chuck, what does this mean tonight?
CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Well, what it means is,
and when you listen to Terry McAuliffe and you heard Joe and Harold
talking about, the pledge delegate count is basically over. If you
could call an election on the delegate count and say, OK, who's going to
have the most pledged delegates at the end of this process.
It now appears like it's going to be impossible for Obama to lose
his lead. And let me show you why. Let me go through some of the
numbers here.
So, tonight, we already know that at her best, she's going to net,
say 14 delegates out of here, maybe she needs it to 16, if the numbers
really ramp up, 18. OK, well, what is his advantage right now in pledge
delegates? He's up 166.
So, let's make this easy. Assume she nets 16 tonight. That would
be 88, you know, 87 to 71, something like that. So then, he's up 150
going into May 6th. On May 6th, we had 566 pledged delegates before
tonight. Now, after May 6th, we're at 408 total left for the rest of
the primary season. She's got to make 150 pledged delegates to do
that. That starts getting up to 69 percent to 70 percent.
But let me take it one step further. Assume that the delegates are
awash on - let's assume the delegates are awash on May 6th in North
Carolina and Indiana. When I say awash, OK, Hillary Clinton net's a
couple out of Indiana, Barack Obama nets a bunch out of North Carolina.
It keeps that pledged delegate lead over 150, maybe even pushes it back
to 160.
Well, suddenly we only have 251 delegates remaining period after May
6th. And she would have to make up 150 pledged delegates in order to
get this lead back and have that talking point with the superdelegates.
Percentage-wise, what does that mean? Eighty percent. She'd have to
win 80 percent of what's left, that's 80 percent.
That's West Virginia, that's Kentucky, that's Montana, that's South
Dakota, that's Oregon. Oregon is a state that Obama is likely to win.
You take that off the table, this number rises to just crazy numbers
that are impossible in this proportional system.
So, if we called things like this and we don't call them, but if we
called things like this, you would say, OK, the pledged delegate count
is over, now, I guess, we focus on the popular vote.
OLBERMANN: All right. But, Chuck, for the sake of clarity, the 80
percent number pertains to what again?
TODD: The 80 percent number is the number of delegates left that
she would have to win after May 6th if we assume that Obama's pledged
delegate lead stays at 150-plus, which is all the estimates are pretty
clear that it will, then, she's got to win 80 percent of the remaining
delegates to somehow get the lead in pledged delegates for those final
contests.
OLBERMANN: Very good. Thanks for double clarifying that one.
Chuck Todd.
Let's bring in NBC's Washington bureau chief, moderator of MEET THE
PRESS, Tim Russert, joining us once again.
And it is, I mean, we used that phrase "spin-sylvania" already. It
is clearly that because this is - if you think exactly about what has
come together over the course of these weeks, the rules of the game have
utterly changed, have been successfully changed by the Clinton campaign
to a point where Terry McAuliffe can say, as his main advertisement in
this interview with Chris a little while ago, that it's the total number
of votes cast in the Democratic primaries. Even though the Democratic
primaries are partially caucuses which reduce vote totals to begin with
on both counts and probably reduce margin according to a study from the
University of Pennsylvania, but also the nominee's not selected based on
the total number of people who vote on a primary system. It's not a
national primary.
RUSSERT: And, Keith, they'll say that the delegates don't count
from Florida and Michigan according to party rules, but the popular vote
should still count. It was Hillary Clinton herself, who said last year
the election in Michigan doesn't count. She said it to National Public
Radio. But it's being revisited as we speak because they need a
rationale to continue this campaign. To be able to say, "We will
continue and go forward because we have a reasonable chance of winning
the nomination."
Here's what we have tonight, Keith, just released, Hillary Clinton's
schedule, April 23 to 26, fresh off the presses, hot off the presses,
going to Indiana, going to North Carolina, trying to give every
indication this campaign continues.
I was talking to someone who understands the game of tennis quite
well and says this is very simple. Obama needs to win match point. He
had his chance tonight. He had his chance in New Hampshire. He had his
chance in Texas. It didn't happen.
Now, it's back to deuce point. He has to win Indiana and North
Carolina in two weeks or it's going to keep on going at least in the
heart and mind of Hillary Clinton.
OLBERMANN: You and I know this from experiences in dealing with
television. The political pros know it from dealing with politics as
you know it from that aspect as well. I imagine, anybody in any line of
work in which a product is marketed understands this, too. It is very
rare that you throw out a new product and in a year's time, completely
wipe out the brand that has been most prominent in your field, whatever
it is, whether it's Democratic politicians or bowling balls -- the
number one brand for 15 years.
Is there a consideration in that or -- in terms of where the
superdelegates go? Where the momentum goes? Where the money goes? Or
is that suddenly wiped out by the result of what Pennsylvania produces
tonight?
RUSSERT: I don't think it will be, Keith because if you look at
Obama standing with the elected delegates and with the popular vote and
with the money, he has a ready reserve from the Internet. He is going
to stay competitive.
The one interesting thing I heard in the conversation you had with
Harold Ford was that if the margin was big tonight, so big, that could
it cause anxiety with the superdelegates pledged to Barack Obama. I
have not had any indication of that in our reporting thus far. What
will it do to the 350 undecided superdelegates? Will they say, "Let's
keep this playing out, let's see whether or not he can regain his sea
legs post 'bitter,' post Reverend Wright in North Carolina and Indiana
and some of the successive states"?
If he wins both those states, I think, then, people will start
locking this down. If she pulls an upset in Indiana and/or North
Carolina, look out. Then, I think you will have a lot of people
assessing what is wrong here? Why can't this be brought down to closure
by the Obama campaign?
MATTHEWS: Let's just try to explain to the newcomer how the
Democrats pick a candidate for president. We thought it was elected
delegates. Bob Brady of Philadelphia, the city committee chairman said
to me yesterday on television, "the candidate who gets the most elected
delegates and this is the party of Jefferson must be the nominee."
Terry McAuliffe a few moments ago told us, that shouldn't be the
score sheet. The score sheet should be who gets the most popular
votes. However, he did not commit to voting or supporting or throwing
in the towel, I should say, to Barack Obama if he got the most popular
votes. It's not just the Clinton forces continue to change the score
sheet and the scoreboard itself, they reserve the right to do it again
and again and again.
Terry McAuliffe doesn't say that if Barack Obama has the most
popular votes in the primaries and caucuses, he should be the nominee.
He certainly doesn't say if he gets the most elected delegates, he
should be the nominee. He says that if Hillary Clinton can find any
metric by which to justify continuing in the campaign, that will be the
one we focus on that day. Isn't that the argument he's making?
RUSSERT: Yes. Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and Terry McAuliffe
have one thing they want: Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic nominee.
And they'll use any path that's available to get there.
And so, if it means saying to the superdelegates, they call them
automatic delegates, we are the better, stronger nominee against McCain,
forget the elected delegates, forget the popular vote, superdelegates,
automatic delegates, you are put on earth for one purpose, and that is
to be judge, jury and to anoint the strongest candidate and we have her
in Hillary Rodham Clinton.
That's what it is all about -- those are the rules according to Bill
Clinton, Hillary Clinton and Terry McAuliffe.
MATTHEWS: Mulligan after mulligan after mulligan.
OLBERMANN: Tim Russert, many thanks.
And yes, it really is not just a moving goalpost but the proverbial
movable feast of goalposts. You put it anywhere you want. And remember
- and the other thing about is, as much as we might look at it with
astonishment or you know, amazement maybe that especially in that --
that core group of women supporters, that group we mentioned earlier,
that is so adherent to Hillary Clinton, this particular action of moving
the goalpost, the actual act of redefining the game as it goes along, is
perceived as one of her greatest strengths. This is her as a leader and
as a (INAUDIBLE).
MATTHEWS: Really?
OLBERMANN: Of course it is. This is part of the process of
fighting back against the odds against her, no matter what the odds are.
MATTHEWS: I think the women have probably been harmed over the
years by men who have changed the goalpost to their disadvantage. My
guess, look again in history.
OLBERMANN: OK. I'm not disputing that. I'm saying, this is seen
as the reverse of that, the writing (ph) of that in many cases.
MATTHEWS: Yes, could be. Let's take a look now. Let's go back to
David Gregory and the RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel.
GREGORY: Thank you very much, Chris.
Let's pick up on this point, Rachel, the arguments now to the
superdelegates are what matter. What are those arguments on both sides?
MADDOW: The argument from Hillary Clinton's campaign is that she is
the one who knows how to fight against Republicans, who has been beaten
up by Republicans for her entire public career. She survived it all and
therefore, she is really the only one who can beat McCain because she's
the only one who knows what's coming down the pike. Barack Obama is too
naive and too unappealing a character.
GREGORY: But why is this a positive judgment for her? What she
wants to demonstrate by beating Barack Obama is that he can't close, he
can't win, he doesn't have the breadth of the base to be able to win
these big states. It's not a pro-Clinton argument, is it?
MADDOW: No, it's not. But she had a case to say, Barack Obama
doesn't have what it takes to lead the country and fix the country's
problems. That's not the case she's made. She is saying, "This guy
can't beat Republicans." They're actually making two totally separate
arguments.
Barack Obama is not talking about who is best suited to beat the
Republicans. He's even conceding that maybe this is toughening him up a
little bit. But I think that Keith's point is actually really right.
One of the things that is most appealing to Democrats about Hillary
Clinton is the fighter thing. That's not just something that appeals...
GREGORY: She's a brawler. She's engaged (INAUDIBLE).
MADDOW: But it's not just a working class thing. It's also
Democrats are afraid that Republicans always beat them because they
don't fight back hard enough. She feels like she's a bar brawler.
BUCHANAN: Not only be able to argue to the superdelegates, you've
got to persuade them. And the most persuadable case that Hillary
Clinton can make is: Look, Barack Obama cannot win Pennsylvania.
Everything is going for him, money, 35,000 people out there. He
couldn't win Ohio. He didn't win Michigan. He can't win Florida.
That's where this election is going to be decided. You know it and
I know it. You know the advantages he got and he couldn't do it. And
we can. Despite our so-called disadvantages. That is why,
superdelegates, I've won the popular vote. That's why you've got to
give us the nomination. We'll put him on the ticket.
That's her case.
GREGORY: Let me Gene in here with this question: Is there a
disadvantage for Barack Obama? He faces an issue like Reverend Wright.
What does he do? He engages it head on but makes larger arguments. He
didn't just feed the sound byte in the speeches. He made the larger
argument about understanding black frustration in the country,
understanding black rage within communities, trying to put Reverend
Wright in context. It was a different type of politics. He has
transformed the politics of this campaign, but is he not putting up
enough fight?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That is who he is, I think and that was seen as a
fairly successful way of dealing with Reverend Wright.
GREGORY: This is the first vote since that....
ROBINSON: This is the first vote, but again, if you look at the
polls back then she was 16 points ahead and it doesn't look like he is
going to lose by 16 points. So clearly he made up some ground.
But look, unless you envision some sort of flood of super delegates
to Hillary Clinton in the next week or two based on this result, then
where is this heading? This is a -- this turns into a war of attrition
in which he is ahead and Chuck explained...
PAT BUCHANAN: What they're hoping for is a pause - what they're
hoping for is a pause in the decision making process in the super
delegates and persuading them that this guy is Adlai Stevenson,
beautiful speeches, he just can't close a deal. He's got no knock out...
ROBINSON: You can pause it, you can freeze the super delegates, but
unless she can beat him in North Carolina then we can have this
conversation again. But if she can't do that I don't see how she
leapfrogs.
GREGORY: Rachel, let's put the argument around on its head. This
guy came out of nowhere in Pennsylvania to -- let's use the "Rocky"
analogy correctly here. He actually went the distance in Pennsylvania.
If you remember from "Rocky" and I have seen the film 75 times, he gets
into bed with Adrian the night before and he says I realize I can't
win. That is not the point. I want to show that I can go the
distance. Obviously he thinks that he can win, but in this case, he
went the distance in Pennsylvania and pulled within, we'll see what the
margin is but to get close enough, he came from way behind. Is that not
an argument that he continues to make to the super delegates to say,
look, she is dying kind of a slow death politically?
RACHEL: Yeah. He makes that, in addition to talking about the
fund-raising. The fact that she is broke right now in the campaign
doesn't say a lot to her electability either. What he needs to be
saying is, listen, in these big states that Pat keeps listing, sure,
when it's two Democrats dividing the electorate I'm not always winning.
I'm winning the overall raise; I'm winning pledge delegates; I'm winning
the money race: I'm winning the enthusiasm race. I have a better
chance against John McCain. They are all talking about Republicans.
They're not talking about winning over white ethnic voters (INAUDIBLE).
BUCHANAN: Why can't you beat Hillary Clinton with all her negatives?
You got more money, the biggest crowds in history. You got the
enthusiasm. Every guy in the media says you are the nominee and you
can't beat her (INAUDIBLE)
RACHEL: There is no connection between his inability to beat Hillary
Clinton and whether or not he can beat John McCain, two totally
different types of reason.
BUCHANAN: (INAUDIBLE) the Marxist dialectic. Look, you may believe
right now that this thing is over, but there is a lot of these of super
delegates got to be sitting there saying, if I were a super delegate for
Barack, I would say, I'm worried. Can this guy beat McCain because I
don't know right now.
(CROSSTALK)
ROBINSON: If he can't beat her among Democrats it doesn't mean he
can't beat John McCain in the wider electorate. It doesn't mean that.
BUCHANAN: It means you are weaker than Hillary in Pennsylvania,
doesn't it? Yes.
GREGORY: All right, let me get one last question before Keith goes
to the (INAUDIBLE) because I don't want to be on the receiving end of
that. Is the issue with super delegates, will they not see an attempt
by the Clinton campaign to look for any metric to justify their victory?
BUCHANAN: Sure.
GREGORY: Will they not see through the idea of the popular vote
being (INAUDIBLE) .
RACHEL: That is a positive. I think that they look at that and they
say any tactic is OK. Any metric is OK. That's the kind of fighter
that we want. I think that's Hillary Clinton's one of her biggest pluses.
BUCHANAN: In the last analysis, these guys are intelligent guys.
They know the damage done to the party if they take this away from
Barack, but they also want to win. You got to persuade these guys and
they are going to be very tough to persuade if he is ahead in pledge
delegates and she is not ahead in popular votes to take it away from
him. Unless they really have the powerful argument, an overwhelming
argument I don't think they will move. They don't have it yet. But
I'll tell you, they got doubts in their mind right there tonight about
whether this guy Barack Obama can do it.
GREGORY: We are going to leave it there for now. Gentlemen, back to
you.
CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Thank you David. Senator Claire
McCaskill of Missouri supports Barack Obama for president. She joins us
tonight from Washington. Senator McCaskill, how do you read the results
so far because I've got some tough questions for you?
SEN. CLAIRE McCASKILL (D) MISSOURI: Well, I think that we always
knew that Hillary Clinton was going to win. Frankly, we talked about
double digits for most of this campaign. I think Barack Obama has
closed the margin significantly. This is a tailor-made state for
Hillary Clinton. She not only has the institutional support of old-line
Democrats. She has the institutional support as you talked about so many
times, Chris, of Ed Rendell and the two mayors. This was a very tough,
tough state for Barack Obama. Now, what we've got to wait and see is
how many net delegates she comes out with.
MATTHEWS: Here's a couple critiques I have of the campaign that he's
waged in Pennsylvania. Let me ask you to respond to both of them. The
first is, an opportunity lost. In the last couple of days, the SEIU,
the service employees, have been running a very good campaign ad on
behalf of Barack Obama making a case she doesn't make for himself. The
campaign ad basically says this country is run by the special interests,
by the oil companies. We're getting screwed and somebody's got to stand
up against them and they say it is Barack Obama. I don't hear that kind
of strong, stark radical language, maybe we should say populist language
coming from him. Why not?
McCASKILL: Well, I think that there frankly because of the math, I
think there has been a hope that we could wind this up without getting
too tough on Senator Clinton.
MATTHEWS: Not on Hillary, on the Republican opposition right now.
Why doesn't he run as a change agent when it comes to the hard case he
has to make against the Republicans? It is too debonair, it's too Fred
Astaire. It's too (INAUDIBLE). He doesn't seem to make a sharp critique
of the way things are in a way that grabs the working guy and working
woman. Hillary seems to be doing a better job of sympathizing with how
upset they are with their economic plight it seems to me.
McCASKILL: I think that's frankly in how you perceive how Barack
Obama talks about these issues. I think he is pretty good at pot roast
and potatoes. I think he's pretty good at talking about the real issues
that face American families at the kitchen table every month when it
doesn't come out even. I think he has - I think most Americans get that
he is not an elite candidate based on the path he has traveled to this
place. So I disagree that he hasn't hit on those themes. I think it is
very hard to go up against the institutional support that Hillary
Clinton had there and the fact that no independent voters can weigh-in
in Pennsylvania.
MATTHEWS: In the beginning of the campaign, they are going to talk
to working people about their parents and everybody works out - there's
middle age, whatever. They have to worry about their parents and Social
Security, worry about if it is going to be there when they get there.
Everybody knows the system needs to be fixed up. Barack Obama supports
a raising of the cap to pay for Social Security so that the senior
citizen gets better break. He gets a lifetime commitment of Social
Security benefits and no cost to the senior citizen, to the average
person. I didn't hear him talking about this. Chaka Fatah (ph) said
this was going to be a big part of his campaign in Pennsylvania to reach
the older voter who was voting for Hillary. I didn't hear him do it.
Why didn't he deliver with a real economic bread and butter meat and
potatoes message as you put it to working people, especially older
people? I didn't hear it.
McCASKILL: Well, I think frankly it's hard to campaign on Social
Security because the American people don't feel the urgency that it's
going away or that there is a major problem. I think the urgency
everybody feels right now is gas prices. I think the urgency everybody
feels right now is college education and health care and he did talk a
lot about those three things and he will continue to talk about those.
The important thing is that we not lose sight of which candidate in this
race has energized an incredible number of people in this country.
Which candidate has really lifted people up and made them believe that
we could change Washington? That is what Barack Obama has done in this
election. He has opened up a very wide lead in the national Democratic
polls. He still polls better against John McCain in all national
polling. And so going forward I think the super delegates really have
not -- do not have any compelling reason to really give the back of
their hand to all these states and all these voters who have behind
Barack Obama.
MATTHEWS: So you're happy -- you think he has been sufficiently
populist, sufficiently cutting in his critique of the way things are in
this country? You are confident that he has enough edge to his message?
McCASKILL: You know, Chris, his style is who he is. And one thing
that Barack Obama is going to be is authentic. Barack Obama is not
going to get sidetracked over what the polls say or what some consultant
says. He is going to be true to who he is. And I would never advise
him to quit doing that because in the end, the biggest problem we've had
is making sure that we remain authentic to what we believe in and who
were are, instead of just being what we need to be today to win an
election.
MATTHEWS: I just wonder if what beat Alan Keyes is going to beat
John McCain, much less Hillary Clinton. I just don't see the sharpness
of the message.
McCASKILL: I think what you will see, you'll see a sharper pivot
against John McCain because he will not be as focused about bringing us
all together in our party. I think he wants to make sure that he
doesn't step on anyone's toes. There is a lot of passion for Hillary
Clinton for all the right reasons. He wants to make sure that he
doesn't bruise that and that he can fold that in as a strong nominee
going forward. But I predict that you will be pleased with how hard
he'll pivot against John McCain when it is time to unite this country,
not just our party.
MATTHEWS: Thank you very much, Senator Claire McCaskill,
Missouri. Thank you.
McCASKILL: Thank you.
KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: You just mentioned Alan Keyes
and 44 guys in our MSNBC control room pitched right forward over the
desk. We are awaiting at perhaps as early as five minutes from now
Senator Clinton's speech from Indiana. We're also awaiting of course
most importantly her margin of victory, sorry from Philadelphia, most
importantly her margin of victory which as you see is at that quarter
poll mark or almost or so is at about 8 percent. Right now we have new
numbers from our exit polling on how each candidate supporters feel
about the other candidate in a potential general election, there
certainly will be a general election against John McCain and for that to
Nora O'Donnell. Nora.
NORA O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: This is really interesting.
With Hillary Clinton winning tonight, we wanted to look ahead to the
fall election, essentially gauge how much this contentious Democratic
primary race has divided the party. Now overall, 71 percent said they
would be satisfied if Hillary Clinton wins the nomination, 64 percent
for Obama. These satisfaction levels are very similar to what we saw in
Ohio. Also as we saw in previous states, Clinton supporters would be
more unhappy with the idea of Obama as their nominee than Obama
supporters would be if Clinton became the party's standard bearer. In
fact, six out of 10 Clinton voters say they would not be satisfied with
him. Only about half of the Obama voters would be dissatisfied with her
as the nominee.
Our NBC news poll specifically asked Clinton and Obama voters what
they would do if their preferred candidate did not win the nomination
and they were faced with the following choice, support for the other
Democrat or vote for John McCain or stay home. First as you see here,
only 53 percent of Clinton voters said they would vote for Barack Obama;
that is stunning, only 53 percent and when you look essentially at Obama
voters, 69 percent., 69 percent, said they would vote for Hillary
Clinton if she ends up the nominee against John McCain.
Interestingly in both of those sets, more than 10 percent say they
would rather not vote for anyone if their candidate does not win the
nomination. They would rather sit home essentially. And what about
those new voters that we were talking about, remember, more than 300,000
new Democratic voters in Pennsylvania today? Check out this number, 29
percent of those new voters said they would not vote for Hillary Clinton
in November. Chris and Keith we're looking at a very polarized
electorate, especially among those new voters who turned out today.
OLBERMANN: And of course, we are looking at it in the middle of a
civil war and the irony I guess here is that, thanks to Nora, if there
was a point at which that civil started among the Democrats, it probably
was the day that Obama said matter of factly he was confident that he
would get her supporters but he was not sure that his supporters would
go if she was the nominee and it turns out statistically at least in
Pennsylvania at least, that it's the other way around. But that was
probably the starting point of all this.
MATTHEWS: The young voters are the ones that people are worried
about in Pennsylvania, the Democratic chairs are worried that they did
get 300,000 voters as a windfall. A good portion of them are
Republicans switching over and they want to hold them because it would
be a perfect solution if they got all the Hillary voters and all the
Barack voters and took them all into the election booths in November
they would win. But that doesn't look like it's going to happen that
neatly.
OLBERMANN: Sprinkle dust from the clouds to do that, a malathion
thing if you've ever been to Southern California. We are expecting
Hillary Clinton to address her supporters in Philadelphia within the
next few minutes. Up next, NBC's Brian Williams and Tim Russert will
join us to talk about the Clinton victory tonight in Pennsylvania, where
this race goes from here. We await the margin of victory for Senator
Clinton. So important on this of all nights. MSNBC's continuing
coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
OLBERMANN: We rejoin you with MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania
primary which our projection suggests will be won tonight by Hillary
Clinton. The issue of course now is the margin of victory. Brian
Williams is of course the anchor of "NBC Nightly News" He's with us for
the first time tonight, along with NBC's Washington bureau chief and
moderator of "Meet the Press" Tim Russert who rejoins us. And
gentlemen, Brian, let me start with you on this in particular. Those
numbers that we heard in the exit polls coming right out suggests, what
does it suggest? It is a snapshot in a middle of a fierce battle that so
many of Obama supporters say they would not support Clinton and vice
versa or is it more telling in terms of the Democratic chances in November?
BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC CORRESPONDENT: Well, Tim and I and I should
explain Keith as usual, what we've been doing all night is updating
these rotating feeds of nightly news as the time zones go west. That's
why I couldn't join you until now. Tim and I have been keying on that
number. So you voted for whoever you voted for in Pennsylvania
tonight. Who do you ultimately see as the nominee of your party? That's
such a fascinating disconnect always and kind of a cognitive dissonance.
People get past the election. They are making whatever statement,
placing whatever vote they feel they need to d yet they have their own
opinion as to how this all ends. And my favorite theory about tonight
as we go through these states, all these primaries, it is like mini
tornadoes, very intense low-pressure systems. Think about how the
primary process changes each state as it moves through. Pennsylvania is
now altered politically because of all this happened. Bucks County
started this process Republican. It is now considered a Democratic
county. Montgomery County, Philadelphia suburb, ditto, went from
majority Republican registration to majority Democrat because of these
new voters. In that way this has kind of changed the political landscape.
OLBERMANN: And Tim, is -- with that as a given, this number here
that we are talking about, perhaps three of 10, depending on which one
of the numbers it is, a little more, a little less, three of 10
Democrats are not satisfied with the prospect of that other, whoever it
is, Obama or Clinton getting the nomination. Is that the number that we
are looking at here in this case as we're seeing they are dissatisfied
with the other Democrat, 62 percent Clinton, 52 percent in terms of
Obama. Is that the valid number or is it the fact that so many of them
in the middle of this sometimes awful fight would be satisfied with the
other candidate the one they are working as hard as they possibly can to
defeat?
TIM RUSSERT, NBC CORRESPONDENT: No. It is a very valid number
Keith. John McCain started off post primary with a really divided
Republican Party and now head to head against Hillary Clinton. He is
getting 90 percent of Republicans. And so the concern amongst Democrats
is this is going to go on for two more weeks at least. If Hillary
Clinton wins Indiana, it goes all the way to the first of June. When do
you have time to heal this party and can you ever put it back together
again? Watching you and Chris talk about the fact that more Obama voters
would support Clinton than Clinton voters support Obama I thought to
myself Terry McAuliffe is going to jump on that and say to the super
delegates you see, Obama voters are more willing to support Hillary so
we should nominate Hillary. Look for any opportunity to take advantage
of that.
MATTHEWS: The question there ignores the fact of how Hillary would
win. Were Hillary to win Tom and Brian, Tim and Brian, by not getting
the most elected delegates, I'm not sure you could assume that those
Barack voters would be open to backing Hillary Clinton in November if it
looked like she stole it.
RUSSERT: Chris, I was in Denver last week and talked to a whole lot
of people and painted out various -- laid out various scenarios and what
would happen if one candidate had more elected delegates, popular vote,
one more contest, but the super delegates decided that another candidate
would be stronger and denied the nomination to the guy with more elected
delegates. And there was a walkout of his delegates. Every one of them
put their heads down and started shaking, saying I don't think we could
recover. In the same vein, Barack Obama, if he is the nominee needs
those voters that Hillary Clinton has been attracting in these big
states order to beat John McCain. He can afford to lose Ohio and
Florida if he can hold Pennsylvania and Michigan and pick up Colorado
and Virginia. And so this is the game that is being mapped out in the
minds of both campaigns tonight.
One other thing, we talked about money. I just got an e-mail on the
blackberry from the Hillary Clinton campaign which was sent out to the
world which says thank you, Pennsylvania, keep the momentum going.
Contribute $5, $5. Because tomorrow they want to wake up and say do you
know how many Americans gave us money last night? This campaign is alive
and well. On to Indiana, on to North Carolina.
OLBERMANN: I thought you were going to say they only needed $5.
Brian, about this issue of they can't live with each other, they can't
live without each other. Is it necessarily going to bring back for the
umpteenth time but with some sense of urgency, the prospect that one
would run for president and the other would run for vice president?
WILLIAMS: Well, our friend Charlie Gibson tried that last week. The
"New York Times" took a good long thumb sucker look at it this morning.
It's everybody's so-called dream team. But I look back as you do Keith
on American history as Tim does, as Chris does. I look at, you know, I
look at Kennedy/Johnson. I look at all the things Lyndon Johnson said
about President Kennedy said Kennedy said about him, even how they were
serving together in the White House. I don't see a modern parallel to
this, I'll tell you. I look at the staffs. I look at the two
individuals and I, look, this is all new territory here. None of us
would have foreseen this a year ago, so never say never and that is one
of the great reasons why I'm not in the prognostication business. But I
join the millions of Americans who just cannot see that possibility.
OLBERMANN: Tim, it's got to be broached and if it is not, presumably
it's back to something we talked about before, is there an alternate
Obama for Clinton to say here's my vice president or alternate Clinton
for Obama to say here's my vice president, somebody who comes in and
unifies at some point to use surrogate in the other meaning of the word.
RUSSERT: You're right. Keith, we don't know what the landscape is
going to look like in Denver in August, just how badly broken this party
might be. It may come to a situation where people have to bite their
lip very hard and say I don't really want this. I don't particularly
like this in either of the campaigns. But at least we have to make the
offer and hope it's turned down. When you look at John Kerry selecting
John Edwards or Ronald Reagan selecting George Herbert Walker Bush,
those were not warm, fuzzy relationships. But they were a political
necessity at the time.
Now I think this campaign has been a little bit different than those
because Senator Clinton has suggested that she passes the commander in
chief test and so does John McCain, but she finds Barack Obama wanting.
Barack Obama has said he is going to change the tone. He is going to
turn the page on the Bushes and the Clintons. So I think both of them
have laid down markers which make it hard to be able to go to their
constituents and to go to the country and say what I said in the
primary, I was just joshing.
MATTHEWS: I've got to underline what Tim said just in terms of
listening to what the candidates have said publicly. Lyndon Johnson
never said that Richard Nixon was more prepared or as prepared as John
Kennedy to be president. George Herbert Walker Bush never, never said
that Michael Dukakis was the match of him in the Reagan campaign. I mean
there is no precedent for what Hillary Clinton has done in this
campaign, to say that she and John McCain are eligible and fit for the
presidency, but her opponent in the primaries, excuse me. It's not. It
just an amazing precedent we are setting here in terms of rivalry. This
is serious stuff. That is why I just sneezed. I don't know what
brought that on.
WILLIAMS?: What do you need? Are you all right?
MATTHEWS: No.
WILLIAMS: It is so fun to be on television with this guy. We see
precedents right and left. That was kind of cool. Anyway, I look at
these two and if you cover this stuff long enough and spend enough time
in this business, you end up knowing the available pool of staff members
as most of us in this conversation now do. They're all members of our
generation or five years off and boy, the antipathy goes so deep into
the roots, the DNA, the family tree. But Chris, I was listening to your
conversation with Ed Rendell so closely tonight. He took a little
something off his slider when he talked about party unity and when they
could get together and how quickly in his eyes, he gave you a date
certain where he thinks the party will commence Kumbaya.
MATTHEWS: But the (INAUDIBLE) question here, for this whole
question of getting together in the end, the Clintons and both of them
have to get in this deal with Barack Obama, is we don't know whether the
Clintons both of them want Barack Obama to win the general election
should he be the nominee. If we don't know it, you can bet that Barack
Obama doesn't know the answer. If you don't know the answer to that
question, why would you entertain putting her on the ticket? It makes no
sense.
RUSSERT: They, of course, will insist that they will be for the
Democratic Party wholeheartedly and don't want to take the political
risk if Obama is nominated to be the cause of his defeat because if he
did lose, she wants to stay viable for 2012. I think that the real
problem that we are confronting is if Hillary Clinton is going to win
this nomination, it is only by persuading the super delegates to pick
her despite the fact that Obama has won more elected delegates and more
popular vote. And the only way she can do that is by convincing them
she wins, Obama loses. And so the not so subtle message is he can't
win. He's a loser. If that doesn't work and she is not able to wrest
the nomination away, how do you unite that party after that kind of
three month internecine civil war?
OLBERMANN: And never mind what the personal risk to her is if she
does not then win or he does not then win after a split Democratic
Party. It's extraordinary, Brian Williams, thank you, Tim Russert,
thank you, Tom Brokaw, thank you.
We are expecting Hillary Clinton's speech in Philadelphia to
celebrate her victory in the Pennsylvania primary. We are expecting of
course to hear something about this margin of victory. This could be
coming up very shortly, certainly in the next hour when Chris and I
return with MSNBC's coverage of the primary.
KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Two hours after the polls close in
Pennsylvania, NBC News has projected Hillary Clinton as the winner in the
Keystone State. At this hour, with now 48 percent of precincts reporting,
nearly half the vote in, it is Senator Clinton by 54 percent to Barack Obama's
46, right in the middle of that eight percent, what do they do now zone? Still
to be determined tonight, exactly how large the Clinton margin of victory will
actually be, exactly how much money her in-debt campaign might be able raise
off the victory and what it all means exactly in this extraordinary and
continuing fight for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann here at MSNBC and NBC
News World Headquarters in New York. We continue our coverage of the
Pennsylvania primary. One of the issues still most pertinent to those
questions we just raised, the geography of what has been reported in
Pennsylvania. What is that 48 percent vote? Where did it come from? Let's go
to Chuck Todd, our MSNBC/NBC News political director, with the numbers and by
the numbers. Chuck, what do we have?
CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Keith, I want to show you
where we don't have any vote yet. This is important as we are watching the
returns come in. Where we don't have vote is in the Philadelphia media market,
outside the actual city of Philadelphia, which is reporting already 63 percent,
which, by the way, Obama is only winning 60/40 in Philadelphia. There were
some projections he had to get to 65 or 70 if he really wanted to make a win.
But he is only getting 60 there.
We have -- literally, you have in Bucks County, just six percent
reporting. In Chester, we still have zero coming in. Montgomery County, the
big enchilada of those suburbs, the suburban county we love to talk about, a
big goose egg so far coming in. Lancaster, the county I was pointing out to
you earlier, a zero. York, Zero. York could be Clinton territory.
Then, as far as a big county that is left that hasn't reported a lot of
results, we have Westmoreland here in the Pittsburgh suburbs, zero. That is
supposed to be a Clinton county. When you put it all together, it looks like
in these suburbs there might be a little more Obama vote out than Clinton vote
out of this remaining 52 percent of precincts that we are waiting to be
counted.
For those watching this margin, we're sitting at eight points; that
would suggest that maybe it inches down a point or two. But Clinton has been
doing better in Philadelphia and early indications in the suburbs, she's been
doing better than some folks expected there. It looks like we are in that
mushy area that we talked about, in the five to nine range, where the campaigns
have to fight each other to try to figure what it all means.
OLBERMANN: You sound like a weather man on one of the stations in
Philadelphia when you talk like that. That's exactly the point, the arrow
would be pointing down. However, those the projections or results out of
Philadelphia, as you suggest, are slightly better for Senator Clinton. Are
they better enough, if they hold in the Philadelphia region, the metro area --
are they enough to offset and not significantly change those total numbers of
her percentage win in the state?
TODD: It is possible, but it does looks like there is still more
actual vote out there sitting that will slightly lean Obama. Look, we'll wait
until these come in and we'll see. But it still looks like there is slightly --
one more word on that Philadelphia; sometimes machines are good at getting out
the vote and running up the score. Now you wonder how important were Rendell
and Nutter. If Obama's margin in Philadelphia really stays 60/40, that is the
story and that shows you how valuable Ed Rendell and Michael Nutter really were
to Hillary Clinton, because they may have held down Obama's margins out of
there.
OLBERMANN: So everything else, the great rural area between the major -
-
TODD: A lot of it has reported in. But, again, we'll -- I was
focusing on the big counties, as I was showing you, because that is where a lot
of the vote is still left.
OLBERMANN: Do we have Pittsburgh?
TODD: We have a lot of Pittsburgh. A majority of Allegheny has gone
in. That's has been a Clinton county. She has been winning that about 57/43
the last I checked. It is -- a lot of her vote, at least in the western part,
has been coming in. The southeastern part, as we told you, would be slow,
particularly Montgomery County. It is true. Montgomery County counting very,
very slowly.
OLBERMANN: Our MSNBC and NBC News political director, Chuck Todd, by
the numbers. As we wait to determine the margin, it is largely the
Philadelphia story yet to come. Carey Grant warming up in the bullpen.
Let's go to Howard Fineman at the campaign listening point. Again, now
past the 50 percent mark, in terms of actual vote, and an eight percent
margin. We know already that there are some boasts of how much money came in
immediately to the Clinton campaign as soon as this was called. What else are
we hearing from the campaigns, Howard?
HOWARD FINEMAN, "NEWSWEEK": That is the focus now for Hillary, the
money and the super delegates. But I think western Pennsylvania is the story
for her, Keith. I was just talking to friends of mine out in places where
they're counting the votes in Pittsburgh and Allegheny county. She is swinging
big there with 2/3 of the vote in. She is even winning bigger in the collar
counties around Pittsburgh. Those are the real deer hunter counties, 60
percent or more. She's got the deer hunter vote and the white working women's
vote in downtown Pittsburgh.
So, it's the women in downtown Pittsburgh and their cousins and
brothers out in the countryside. They are giving her massive margins, which is
why she is going to give this victory speech tonight.
OLBERMANN: This news out of Philadelphia seems to have mixed messages
for Senator Clinton, that there is a better performance in the city itself, but
that those numbers are not expected to be favorable for her in the general
area -- as Chuck put it, the TV market, have yet to come in. Is there an
assessment. Do they have an expectation?
I guess what I'm asking for, it is eight percent. It is right at that
margin we were talking about long before the polls closed. Do they expect this
will hold? Do they expect it will get smaller? Do they expect it will get
bigger?
FINEMAN: They think it is going to be around that. The key is Obama
is doing very well in suburbs, in affluent suburbs around Philadelphia and
increasingly in Pittsburgh, too. I think Obama did a little better in
Allegheny county, which is not just the city of Pittsburgh but the suburbs of
Pittsburgh. Obama did better there, I think, than some of the locals
expected. But that is counteracted by the rural vote in the counties around
there.
So Obama made this probably within single digits by doing well enough
in the suburban areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. And after all, that's
sort of the heart of the country for Obama, better educated, suburban voters,
plus the African-American vote in the cities, which is important in
Philadelphia, but not so much in Pittsburgh.
OLBERMANN: Howard, as we wait for Senator Clinton to speak in
Philadelphia, I think we have a Pittsburgh versus Philadelphia argument about
to ensue. Chris Matthews was shaking his head.
FINEMAN: Don't worry. We won't have to do this beyond tonight,
Keith.
OLBERMANN: Oh, right. It wasn't another sneeze coming.
CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: All this talk, I heard Chuck, about the
power of Eddie Rendell and Michael Nutter; in Philadelphia anybody knows the
city is divided. Of course, you go to south Philly; Hillary Clinton will do
very well there against Barack Obama. Northeast Philly, where I'm from,
Hillary Clinton will do very well against Barack Obama there. Yes, there are
liberals downtown, who might vote a different way. It isn't the power of the
big shots. It's the people telling their ward leaders how they want to vote
and committee people.
This is a grass roots campaign. We are picking a president here.
Nobody is going to tell you how to vote for president. Sure, they can organize
better, get the vote out, perhaps move people around. But in the end -- Howard
you know this. You know Philadelphia. And I have to tell you, the idea it
would be about 60 percent is not a big surprise. The fact that there are some
white liberals who will join the African-American support for Barack Obama is
known, certainly down in Centre City and Society Hill, and some of the other
areas in the northeast.
But generally, we know there are a lot of regular people in the
northeast who are going to see Hillary Clinton as the hometown girl. She was
up there the other day campaigning as a hometown girl. It doesn't surprise me
it's about 60 to 65 percent for Barack in Philadelphia. He'll be lucky to get
anywhere near 70. It's not because of Michael Nutter or Ed Rendell. It's
because that's how people think.
As somebody once said to me in this campaign, a lot of people in this
campaign decided how to vote back in 1957. They have thought about how to vote
and they are going to vote this way. A lot of this is neighborhood, a lot of
it.
FINEMAN: She wasn't the hometown gal in western Pennsylvania, Chris.
But she did strongly there, especially in the counties around Pittsburgh. That
really is the classic deer hunter country that we have been talking about.
MATTHEWS: She had a gun, didn't she? Wasn't she one of those women
raised to use a gun? I read that?
FINEMAN: All politics is a game of comparison, Chris. Compared with
Barack Obama, she seemed in those counties to be the one closer to the heart of
those Democratic voters.
MATTHEWS: I meant hometown girl metaphorically. She certainly came
from Scranton, to the extent she spent her summers there.
FINEMAN: I'm being overly specific.
MATTHEWS: She came across as -- I really buy the argument -- maybe I
made it first -- that this -- getting a tough fight with Barack Obama has made
Hillary more middle class, tougher more Marcy Kaptur, more the woman from the
neighborhood than she ever has before. We are waiting now for Hillary Clinton
to address her supporters in Philadelphia.
With us now is Lisa Caputo, who knows Hillary very well. She was her
press secretary when Hillary Clinton was first lady, and is senior adviser in
the campaign now. Your sense, if it eight percent, or close to it, is that a
big win for Hillary, Lisa?
LISA CAPUTO, CLINTON CAMPAIGN ADVISER: Absolutely, Chris. I have been
amazed tonight watching the coverage tonight. She doesn't get the credit; a
win is a win here. Eight percent is significant. I think the one thing that
nobody is talking about tonight, which is an important point, and I said it
before on your air, and I was reminded again in a conversation I had with
someone inside the Clinton campaign earlier, what you see tonight is the sheer
grit of the candidate, the sheer grit of Hillary Clinton.
She has overcome all kinds of obstacles here, in particular everybody
is counting her out. She has to win by double digits or she's done. The fact
of the matter is she is coming out here with a significant victory, which
should slingshot her to Indiana, and should also give her the ability to raise
money. Now she has arguments to make to the super delegates, that being that
questions about Obama's electability, raising questions in voters' minds and
super delegates' minds about whether or not he can really beat McCain, since he
can't win a battleground state. And also her ability to put the issues front
and center on the economy.
MATTHEWS: Wasn't this the case in reverse back when Senator Obama won
the South Carolina primary. Didn't the Clinton forces, led by the former
president, sort of discredit that victory by saying, it is just another victory
by somebody like Jesse Jackson? It doesn't count that much.
CAPUTO: I don't think the Clinton campaign discredited the victory. I
think, again, a victory is a victory. What is important to note here is he
can't seem to win a battleground state. The battleground states are the big
states you have to win in a general election, which raises the question of what
if his electability possibility against Senator McCain? I think you can't
discount the fact that Senator Clinton has won those key states. Those are the
states Democrats have to win in a general election.
I think tonight is a big night for her. As I said, earlier it will
help her raise money. It will help her slingshot into Indiana. I think it
will put some questions in the minds of the super delegates. I think super
delegates are going to hit the pause button and say, wait a minute. How come
Barack Obama can't seem to close the deal.
MATTHEWS: Thank you, Lisa Caputo with the Clinton campaign.
CAPUTO: Nice to see you, Chris.
OLBERMANN: Let's sling it back, to use that phrase from Lisa, to our
panel -- to our RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel. David Gregory standing by with
them and I will keep the bell sheathed for the moment.
DAVID GREGORY, MSNBC ANCHOR: We are waiting for Hillary Clinton to
address her supporters. We will keep a close eye on that for all our viewers
at home. Gene, to pick up on this conversation, it is the new argument in this
race that Hillary Clinton makes. She likes to say, and we may hear tonight,
that this was a gritty victory in Pennsylvania.
She is still alive. The end game is not different for her. She needs
a new way to capture momentum. As Chuck Todd laid out, it is not the fight for
pledge delegates. That is effectively over for her.
EUGENE ROBINSON, "THE WASHINGTON POST": If she is not going to win in
pledged delegates, it is really a battle of perceptions at this point. She is
trying to get the super delegates and I guess the Democratic party to perceive
her as the stronger candidate against John McCain. I don't quite know how she
does that, to the extent that she overcomes his lead in pledged delegates.
As Pat pointed out earlier, you get to the convention, he is still
ahead in pledge delegates. It is hard to see the convention giving her the
nomination.
GREGORY: Pat, this is provocative point; Hillary Clinton wants to
force something that would be very difficult for super delegates. We have seen
them make the comment that they don't want to be decisive in this race. It's
why so many of them are hanging back. She wants to force these super delegates
to make this judgment in her favor that is not based on pledged delegates. It
has to be based on something else. It may be based a qualitative judgment
about who best can face John McCain. That is ultimately what she wants to
force their hand to do.
PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: That's exactly right. It is
very, very difficult to do, even if you are persuaded that she is stronger, to
go out there and rip this nomination away from Barack Obama, after all the
youth and fire and enthusiasm. That's almost dooming the Democratic party.
But let me say this, I am astounded by Norah O'Donnell's figures; 52
percent of Clinton's voters won't vote for Barack Obama? I can't believe that,
quite frankly. What it does suggest is we are reaching a Rockefeller/Goldwater
divide in this party that is very, very deep and getting more and more bitter.
GREGORY: Let me get in here. You see Hillary Clinton getting up on
the stage. Keith and Chris.
OLBERMANN: If you tell your supporters that the other candidate can't
be elected and isn't qualified and you shouldn't vote for them, eventually that
message will reflect to some degree. As we watch the senator, well ahead of
any final score coming in, but getting near there. That number has been
reported -- has been increasing in terms of the actual vote count, now to the
point where we are almost at 60 percent, and it is a ten-point margin for the
moment.
Again, we are waiting, based on the geography that Chuck Todd laid out
for us -- Apparently, we are waiting largely for votes from the Philadelphia
area, although city itself has largely reported so far. Pittsburgh has
reported thus far. The Philadelphia exurbs, as Chuck called them earlier in
the evening, might be pro-Obama. They might narrow this margin. It has been
bouncing around. It's been eight percent at times, nine percent at times. At
this point, 10 percent is probably the highest it has been so far.
As we watch Senator and President Clinton and Governor Rendell
celebrating, with the senator about to speak from Philadelphia. It is her
microphone.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you all.
Thank you. Thank you, very, very much. Thank you. It's a long road to 1600
Pennsylvania Avenue, and it runs right through the heart of Pennsylvania.
You know, for six weeks, Senator Obama and I have crisscrossed this
state, meeting people up close, being judged side-by-side, making our best
case. You listened, and today you chose.
With two wars abroad and an economic crisis here at home, you know the
stakes are high and the challenges are great, but you also know the
possibilities. Those possibilities are endless, if we roll up our sleeves and
get to work with a president who's ready to lead on day one.
You know, that means ready to take charge as commander-in-chief and
make this economy work for middle-class families.
And I thank you. I thank you, Pennsylvania, for deciding I can be that
president.
You know, for me, the victory we share tonight is deeply personal. It
was here in Pennsylvania where my grandfather started work as a boy in the lace
mills and ended up as a supervisor five decades later. It was here where my
father attended college and played football for Penn State.
And I am back here tonight because of their hard work and sacrifice.
And I only wish they could have lived to see this moment, because in this
election I carry with me not just their dreams, but the dreams of people like
them and like you all across our country, people --
-- people who embrace hard work and opportunity, who never waiver in
the face of adversity, who stand for what you believe and never stop believing
in the promise of America.
I'm in this race to fight for you, to fight --
-- to fight for everyone who's ever been counted out, for everyone
fighting to pay the grocery bills or the medical bills, the credit card and
mortgage payments, and the outrageous price of gas at the pump today.
You know, the pundits questioned whether Pennsylvanians would trust me
with this charge. And tonight you showed you do. You know you can count on me
to stand up strong for you every single day in the White House.
This is a historic race. And I commend Senator Obama and his supporters
tonight. We are, in many ways, all on this journey together to create an
America that embraces every last one of us, the women in their 90s who tell me
they were born before women could vote. And they're hopeful of seeing a woman
in the White House.
The mothers and fathers at my events who lift their little girls on
their shoulders and whisper in their ears, "See, you can be anything you want."
Tonight, more than ever, I need your help to continue this journey.
This is your campaign, and this is your victory tonight.
Your support has meant the difference between winning and losing. Now,
we can only keep winning if we can keep competing with an opponent who
outspends us so massively, so I hope you'll go to HillaryClinton.com --
-- and show your support tonight, because the future of this campaign
is in your hands.
You know, some people counted me out and said to drop out. But the
American people --
AUDIENCE: Boo!
CLINTON: Well, the American people don't quit, and they deserve a
president who doesn't quit, either.
You know, tonight, all across Pennsylvania and America, teachers are
grading papers and doctors and nurses are caring for the sick, and you deserve
a leader who listens to you. Waitresses are pouring coffee, and police officers
are standing guard, and small businesses are working to meet that payroll. And
you deserve a champion who stands with you.
And, of course, all across the world, our men and women in uniform,
some on your second, third, or fourth tour of duty, you deserve a commander-in-
chief who will finally bring you home -- -- and who will rebuild our strained
military, do whatever it takes to care for our veterans, wounded in both body
and spirit. Today, here in Pennsylvania, you made your voices heard. And,
because of you, the tide is turning.
We were up against a formidable opponent who outspent us 3-to-1. He
broke every spending record in this state trying to knock us out of the race.
Well, the people of Pennsylvania had other ideas today.
You know, the presidency is the toughest job in the world, but the
pressures of a campaign are nothing compared to the pressures of the White
House. And today, Pennsylvanians looked through all the heat and saw the light
of a brighter tomorrow, a tomorrow of shared prosperity and restored world
leadership for peace, security and cooperation.
After seven long years of President Bush, we've got our work cut out
for us, and we don't have a minute to waste. So it's high time we stop talking
about our problems and start solving them, and that is what my campaign is all
about.
You know, all through this campaign, I have offered solutions,
solutions for good jobs you can raise a family on, jobs that can't be shipped
overseas, and, on Earth Day, clean, renewable green jobs that can put us on the
right track to the future --
-- solutions for independence from foreign oil and exploding gas
prices, quality, affordable health care, not just for many Americans or most
Americans, but for every single American, no exceptions and no excuses --
-- affordable college, and real improvements in public schools, not
the failure that is No Child Left Behind.
We're going to end the war on science and have a renewed commitment to
science and research.
We will tackle everything from autism to Alzheimer's, cancer to
diabetes, and make a real difference.
I look forward to discussing all of these issues with the people of
Indiana and North Carolina and the states that I'll be visiting in the coming
weeks.
Not long ago -- not long ago, a woman handed me a photograph of her
father as a young soldier. He was receiving the Medal of Honor from President
Truman at the White House. During World War II, he had risked his life on a
daring mission to drive back the enemy and protect his fellow soldiers.
In the corner of that photo, in shaking handwriting, this American hero
had simply written, "To Hillary Clinton, keep fighting for us." And that is
what --
That is what I'm going to do, because America is worth fighting for.
You are worth fighting for.
It was in this city that our founders declared America's independence
and are permanent mission to form a more perfect union. Now, neither Senator
Obama nor I, nor many of you, were fully included in that vision, but we've
been blessed by men and women in each generation who saw America not as it is,
but as it could and should be, the abolitionists and the suffragists, the
progressives and the union members, the civil rights leaders --
-- all those who marched, protested, and risked their lives, because
they looked into their children's eyes and saw the promise of a better future.
Because of them, I grew up taking for granted that women could vote.
Because of them, my daughter grew up taking for granted that children of all
colors could attend school together. And because of them, and because of you,
this next generation will grow up taking for granted that a woman or an African-
American can be the president of the United States of America.
I am so honored by the support and the hospitality of all of the people
of Pennsylvania. And I want to especially thank Governor Rendell and Mayor
Nutter --
-- Lieutenant Governor Catherine Baker Knoll, and State Treasurer
Robin Wiessmann, and State Party Chair T.J. Rooney. These are great leaders and
dear friends, as are my friends from the Congress, Representatives Murtha,
Sestak, Schwartz, and Kanjorski.
Their support means the world to me, and the support of 100 mayors
across this commonwealth and so many other state and local leaders who worked
hard for this victory tonight.
I want to thank my friends in our labor unions for standing with us
every step of the way.
And my outstanding staff, volunteers and supporters here in
Pennsylvania and across America.
And I especially want to thank my family for their incredible love and
support.
Bill and Chelsea have crisscrossed Pennsylvania from one end to the
other.
My brothers, Hugh and Tony, who love Pennsylvania with all their
hearts, from our childhood summers in Lake Winola, and my mother, who is with
us tonight.
We still have a lot of work ahead of us, but if you're ready, I'm ready.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: Now, I might stumble and I might get knocked down, but as
long as you will stand with me, I will always get right back up.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: Because, for me, in the end, the question isn't whether we
can keep America's promise; it's whether we will keep America's promise.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: So let me ask you -- so let me ask you, will we, will we once
again be the can-do nation, the nation that defies the odds and does the
impossible?
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: Will we break the barriers and open the doors and lift up all
of our people?
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: Will we reach out to the world and lead by our power of our
ideals again?
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: Will we take back the White House and take back our country?
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: I believe with all of my heart that, together, we will turn
promises into action, words will become solutions, hope will become reality.
So my answer to any who doubt is: Yes, we will.
Thank you, and God bless you.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Senator Clinton at Philadelphia after
her victory in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary.
The margin is yet to be determined. It is currently, with nearly three-
quarters of the vote in, at 8 percent, as the confetti goes on cue.
CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Right.
So much for protocol. The old days, meaning, like last time around,
the candidate who lost a contest would speak first, and then the winner would
speak. But I must say, all that aside, Senator Clinton's remarks were
excellent. I thought it was confident, calm, and a good speech.
She has obviously made a decision to not deliver the kind of stem-
winders, the kind of barn burners she has given before, where she tries to keep
up with the crowd. And it's level. It was very calm, very measured. It
showed a lot of confidence. Certainly, she has been able to tie together
tonight in her remarks the idea of her not being a quitter, the country not
being a quitter.
I thought it was a remarkably successful speech. And I think the tide
is turning is her -- is her message for tonight.
OLBERMANN: One question about it -- as we wait for Senator Obama, who
has now reached his venue, to speak in a few moments , at most -- one question
about it.
We discussed earlier the seeming need for Obama at all times to be
deferential towards her, in the event of this thing coming to a conclusion at
any point, which could be, if this margin shrinks appreciably, although this is
very unlikely, could be after this primary -- more than likely not -- possibly
at some point later on, because of various factors.
Is there no necessity for her to behave in any way like that towards
him? Of all the things that you said, I'm in agreement with you on the
analysis of speech. There was a lot in there that was mocking, still, in tone
the Obama basic message of, yes, we can. We heard it at the very end. It was -
- it has been paraphrased. It has been co-opted, to some degree.
There is nothing that says she has to be gracious, just in case she is
the winner, so she can be a gracious winner later on?
MATTHEWS: Well, all I can say is, if you look for a parallel, back in
1976, when Jerry Ford was the incumbent Republican president, and Ronald Reagan
took him all, Ronald Reagan acted as if Jerry Ford was nothing more than
furniture in the way of his -- of his victory procession. And it may have
taken four years to get past him.
I think Clinton looks upon her role in life to be the next president,
whether this time or next, and that Barack Obama is simply in the way. And
that is the way she continues to look upon him.
OLBERMANN: All right, let's bring in Brian Williams, and Tim Russert,
and Tom Brokaw, as we wait for Senator Obama to speak.
And let me continue on that point. That -- that analogy to 1976 and
Reagan and Ford, Tom, seems to be apt here, because, of course, Mr. Ford then
fell more than 30 points behind, if I'm remembering -- remembering correctly,
behind Jimmy Carter, and came from all the way back to nearly defeat him. But
that was an extraordinarily divisive period that lasted throughout most of 1976
for the Republicans, and ultimately ended in -- ended with their defeat in the
fall.
TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS: Well, what happened in Kansas City is that
Ronald Reagan was defeated, and then did not go to the stage voluntarily.
And when he was finally persuaded to go on to the stage, the convention
erupted in applause and adulation for him. And Jerry Ford was standing off to
the side, I think, having second thoughts about whether he should have offered
him the vice presidential spot or not. He ended up going with Bob Dole.
Let me just say something about this speech tonight, if I may.
And, by the way, in the background there, I saw Jon Corzine, the
governor of New Jersey, on that stage. Just a week ago, he was expressing, not
so much doubt, but saying, well, we have to wait and see as a superdelegate
about what happens. But there he is tonight. And that is a statement for the
people of New Jersey.
She touched all the themes that she needed to, that she's prepared to
be president. I can be that president, she said. She talked about women. And
then she talked about the core of the Democratic Party, specifically, teachers,
policemen, waitresses, small-business owners, and men in uniform, and then
wound up saying, and he outspent us 3-1. And, if you want to help, she then
gave her Web site and her dot-com address, so that she can get some money.
So, typically of Senator Clinton, she had her act together. And that's
what kept her in the race all this time.
OLBERMANN: Tim Russert, where was that one last component that we
didn't hear? Where was that? And when does she have to bring it out, sort of
protectively, again, in the event that she does manage to take this
nomination?
Because there is going to be the perception, no matter what happens in
the ballot box, no what happens among superdelegates, no matter what kind of
rapprochement there might be later between, perhaps, the Obama camp and Clinton
camp, for Senator Clinton to get that nomination, there will be a large
percentage of the Democratic Party that will say it was taken away violently,
if you will, metaphorically, if you will, from Barack Obama.
Where is just a reserve hint of ointment in that speech or in upcoming
speeches from Senator Clinton?
TIM RUSSERT, NBC WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Well, the sense I get,
Keith, is first things first. She has to win first, and then she can be
magnanimous and gracious.
Interesting you brought up that point. And to Tom's point, I just got
an e-mail from the Clinton folks saying that the money being -- pouring in now
from the Internet is higher than at any point during the entire campaign,
higher than after Super Tuesday, that they had raised $500,000 even before the
speech, and they are bracing themselves for obviously some cash flow to keep
this TV and radio running for Indiana and North Carolina.
At the same time, the Obama campaign is circulating an editorial in
tomorrow's "New York Times" called "The Low Road to Victory." This is a paper
that endorsed Senator Clinton, as you well know. And it suggests that her use
of Osama bin Laden in her TV ads, her use of the word obliterate when it comes
to bombing of Iran, if in fact they began a nuclear -- commenced a nuclear
attack against Israel, and the tone of her campaign, is on a path that they
didn't find particularly appealing.
So, she is going to have to walk this tightrope. How does she appeal
to superdelegates and suggest that she has a reasonable chance for the
nomination and would be a better and stronger nominee without antagonizing many
of the newspapers and political community and observers who are watching and
commenting on it in order to give her that opening, if you will? It's not
going to be easy.
OLBERMANN: Well, Brian, to that point, it is not even a question of
what we think. I mean, we are each, like, one person each, I think, still.
It is a question of, is the -- is that margin that any Democrat running
against any Republican in the fall, is that larger than the number of
disaffected Democrats, who will be necessarily perhaps disaffected by this
process, no matter which candidate winds up with the nomination?
BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC ANCHOR: Well, that's right. It comes back to --
back around to our last conversation on this topic.
We're coming out of a state now that has been carpet bombed. When they
talk about being outspent 2-1, 3-1 by Obama, we all know what that means. And
if you saw any Pennsylvania television over the past couple of days or weeks,
it got intense.
Tom Brokaw was right. She's become more unabashed, if that's possible,
about this fund-raising, giving her e-mail -- giving her Web site address.
Already tonight, they changed the design on the Web. This "Give us $5 plea"
takes a page from the Obama playbook, that kind of carpet bombing scheme,
looking for the small donations.
I got the same e-mail that Tim Russert got about how much they have
raised pre-speech already tonight.
Here is the buzz-kill, though. And this was the Associated Press lead
that went out to so many daily papers that needed a lead to go to press for
tomorrow morning: "Hillary Rodham Clinton survived yet another day. There
will be little time for celebration, though. Time and money are running out."
So, as we're fond of saying around here, those are the first words a
lot of people will wake up to tonight. And that will go out on the wires as
kind of the first draft of the history of this night, as we wait for the math
and see what this margin is. We heard Lisa Caputo tonight say that even eight
points would be, in her words, decisive.
OLBERMANN: Tom, the -- the editorial that Tim mentioned in
tomorrow's "New York Times," as we are still on the subject of newspapers,
which we can overdo very quickly, but just let read the sentence in here.
"The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive
result on Tuesday, was even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more
filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests
that preceded it. Voters are getting tired of it. It is demeaning the
political process. And it does not work."
Is there an argument to be made -- and, presumably, Senator Clinton
would not come out and say this, but is there an argument to be made on her
behalf that "The Times" is actually wrong with the last conclusion of that,
that, in fact, it does work?
BROKAW: Well, you know, politics ain't beanbag, as Mr. Dooley famously
said in Chicago.
(LAUGHTER)
BROKAW: And that has been repeated to the point that it is a well-worn
cliche in American politics.
Personally, I think have seen some -- some tougher campaigns. I was
talking to a Western governor the other day who said, look, we think that this
is all softball thrown underhand at this point. It is going to get to be a lot
tougher in the fall.
But here is the problem for Senator Clinton, even with tonight's
victory. Which candidate do you think is honest and trustworthy? Hillary
Clinton is not, the number is 41 percent. She remains in a very high
stratosphere when it comes to an unfavorable, a negative. She has not been
able to lower that number since the beginning of that -- of this campaign.
And that will give everyone in the Democratic Party some pause,
including those superdelegates that she's tried to win over.
OLBERMANN: Tim, how bad can this get, theoretically? I mean, is it
apocalyptic? Is it -- is it 1912? Is there a Bull Moose Party waiting to
happen somewhere?
RUSSERT: I don't think so. Certainly, Ralph Nader and others will run
as independents. But I don't see either Obama or Clinton bolting the
convention and trying to mount that kind of candidacy.
But, Keith, I think it can get more bitter than we have seen so far.
These next two weeks are going to be unbelievable, because Hillary Clinton
realizes that she has to live from primary to primary. If she loses North
Carolina and Indiana, all that she feared tonight will reappear on May 6.
And, so, she will use and say and do the things that she thinks she has
to do to win. That was very clear in Pennsylvania. Can Obama, on the other
hand, avoid getting down into a tit for tat and return to his message? Will he
have that luxury of having put the bitter comments and Reverend Wright behind
him?
These next two weeks -- I know we keep saying this after each event,
but, believe me, they are critical. They are going to be interesting. Strap
yourself in, America. This race is going forward. And it is one to watch.
That's why there's been so much intensity and interest in this campaign,
because it never disappoints.
MATTHEWS: Let me go to the -- perhaps the predictability of tonight,
Tim. If you looked -- I mean, our producers, we all had a pool tonight. And
it averaged out to eight points. I thought it would be eight points yesterday
as the over/under.
But, more importantly, I want to ask you, when you look at that Al Hunt
purloined copy of Barack predictions, do they -- didn't they have this victory
eight or 10 points already figured months ago in Pennsylvania?
RUSSERT: Funny you should ask, Chris. I have my own copy.
(LAUGHTER)
RUSSERT: I don't go anywhere without it.
Actually, five points. They predicted they would lose Pennsylvania by
five points. And just so -- the exact numbers were 52 to 47. Now, stay
tuned. They think they win Indiana 53 percent to 46 percent, and they win
North Carolina 53 percent to 45 percent.
And, of course, Guam, they think they win 55 percent to 44 percent. We
will find out.
MATTHEWS: So, they fell less than expectations, but most people
thought this election in Pennsylvania would be around eight points. It
happened as expected.
It wasn't the -- the double-digit blowout that you mentioned earlier
tonight might be necessary to really change the course of this campaign.
But let's see. Here is the man himself who came in short tonight.
Let's see how he treats coming in short, Barack Obama.
OLBERMANN: What -- All right, you be his adviser here, just for our
theory, Chris. What on earth do you say under these circumstances? You don't
know your margin of loss is. You only know that it is projected and it's in
the books as a defeat.
MATTHEWS: I think just say Hillary won tonight, and as he promised he
would say.
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: He was going to be courteous before.
(CROSSTALK)
OLBERMANN: The radio comments about 50 percent, plus one, is a
victory. I'm not going to pretend I'm happy with 45 percent of the vote.
MATTHEWS: Well, what he might do is say with her, you won tonight, but
let's use the same Jeffersonian principle. Whoever gets the most votes overall
should be the nominee. Remind her of the party of Jefferson by giving her the
credit tonight for this victory.
OLBERMANN: The most votes? The most delegates?
MATTHEWS: Well, I'm not sure Terry McAuliffe tonight committed to
either standard.
OLBERMANN: Right.
MATTHEWS: But they have to agree on some count as the basis for who
wins, besides just who can pull it off in Denver.
(CROSSTALK)
OLBERMANN: Well, they will -- they will agree to whichever the one he
doesn't agree to, presumably...
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: Perhaps. But I think he should hold them to some standard.
I know I said today to the Boston -- Philadelphia, the chairman of the
party said, the guy with the most elected delegates should have this.
OLBERMANN: Here is Senator Obama.
OBAMA: Thank you, everybody. Thank you so much. Thank you.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: Thank you, Evansville.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: Thank you. Thank you, Evansville. Thank you. Thank you.
CROWD: Obama! Obama! Obama! Obama!
OBAMA: Thank you.
CROWD: Obama! Obama! Obama! Obama!
OBAMA: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you, everybody.
Listen, there are a couple of "thank yous" I have got to say.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: First of all -- first of all, it's good to be back in the
Midwest. I am glad to see everybody here in Evansville.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: I want to thank -- I want to thank...
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We love you, Obama!
OBAMA: I love you back.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: I want to thank John Mellencamp and his wonderful wife, Elaine,
for taking the time to be here today, driving up from Bloomington. Give them a
big round of applause.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: And I want to thank your wonderful mayor, Jonathan Weinzapfel,
and his lovely wife, Patricia, who have been just so gracious to both Michelle
and myself.
I have repeatedly said upon first meeting the mayor that this guy's
going somewhere and mainly because, like me, he married up, and his wife is
such an asset, but I'm so grateful for his support. It means so much. And
Evansville, obviously, is going to be so important to this upcoming election.
Well, I want to thank all of you who are here tonight, but I want to
start tonight by congratulating Senator Clinton on her victory this evening,
and I want to thank -- I want to thank -- no, no, she ran a terrific race. I
want to thank the hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvanians who stood with our
campaign today.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: You know, there were a lot of folks who didn't think we could
make this a race when it started. They thought we were going to be blown out.
But we worked hard, and we traveled across the state to big cities and small
towns, to factories and VFW halls.
And now, six weeks later, we closed the gap. We rallied people of
every age and race and background to the cause.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: And whether they were inspired for the first time or for the
first time in a long time, we registered a record number of voters. And it is
those new voters who will lead our party to victory in November.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: These Americans cast their ballots for the same reason you came
here tonight, for the same reason that millions of Americans have gone door-to-
door and given whatever small amounts they can to this campaign, for the same
reason that we began this journey, just a few hundred miles from this spot, on
a cold February morning in Springfield: because we believe that the challenges
we face are bigger than the smallness of our politics, and we know that this
election is our chance to change it.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: After 14 long months, it's easy to forget -- after 14 long
months, it's easy to forget what this campaign's about from time to time, to
lose sight of the fierce urgency of this moment.
It's easy to get caught up in the distractions and the silliness and
the tit-for-tat that consumes our politics, the bickering that none of us are
entirely immune to, and it trivializes the profound issues: two wars, an
economy in recession, a planet in peril, issues that confront our nation.
That kind of politics is not why we are here tonight. It's not why I'm
here, and it's not why you're here. We...
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: We are here because of the more than 100 workers in Logansport,
Indiana, who just found out that their company has decided to move its entire
factory to Taiwan.
We're here because of the young man I met in Youngsville, North
Carolina, who almost lost his home because he has three children with cystic
fibrosis and couldn't pay their medical bills, who still doesn't have health
insurance for himself or his wife, and lives in fear that a single illness
could cost them everything.
We're here because there are families all across this country who are
sitting around the kitchen table right now trying to figure out how they're
going to pay their insurance premiums, and their kid's tuition, and still make
the mortgage, so that they're not the next ones in the neighborhood to put
a "For Sale" sign in their front yard...
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: ... people who will lay awake tonight wondering if next week's
paycheck will cover next month's bills.
We're not here to talk about change for change's sake, but because our
families and our communities and our country desperately need it.
We are here because we can't afford to keep doing what we have been
doing for another four years.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: We can't afford to play the same Washington games with the same
Washington players and expect a different result. Not this time. Not now.
We already know what we're getting out of the other party's nominee.
John McCain has offered this country a lifetime of service, and we respect
that. But what he's not offering is any meaningful change from the policies of
George W. Bush.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: John McCain believes that George Bush's Iraq policy is a
success, so he's offering four more years of a war with no exit strategy, a war
that's sending our troops on their third tour, and their fourth tour, and their
fifth tour of duty, a war that's cost us billions of dollars and thousands of
lives, thousands more grievously injured, a war that has not made us more safe,
but has distracted us from the task at hand in Afghanistan...
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: ... a war that should have never been authorized and should
have never been waged.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: John McCain said that -- John McCain said that George Bush's
economic policies have led to, and I quote, "great progress" over the last
seven years. And so he's promising four more years of tax cuts for CEOs and
corporations who didn't need them and weren't asking for them, tax cuts that he
once voted against because he said they offended his conscience.
Well, they may have stopped offending John McCain's conscience
somewhere along the road to the White House, but George Bush's economic
policies still offend my conscience, and they still offend yours.
Because I don't think that the 232,000 Americans who have lost their
jobs this year are seeing great progress the way John McCain has seen it. I
don't think the millions of Americans losing their homes have seen that
progress; I don't think the families without health care and the workers
without their pensions have seen that progress.
And if we continue down the same reckless path, I don't think the
future generations who will be saddled with debt will see these years of
progress.
We already know John McCain offers more of the same, so the question is
not whether the other party will bring about change to Washington. We know
they won't. The question is: Will we? That's the question we face in this
election.
Because -- because...
CROWD: Yes, we can! Yes, we can! Yes, we can! Yes, we can! Yes, we
can! Yes, we can! Yes, we can!
OBAMA: Because the truth is the challenges we face are not just the
fault of one man or one party. I mean, think about it. How many years, how
many decades have we been talking about solving our health care crisis? How
many presidents have promised to end our dependence on foreign oil?
How many jobs have gone overseas in the '70s, and the '80s, and
the '90s, and we still haven't done anything about it? And we know why. In
every election, politicians come to your cities and your towns, and they tell
you what you want to hear, and they make big promises, and they lay out all
these plans and policies.
But then they go back to Washington when the campaign's over.
Lobbyists spend millions of dollars to get their way. The status quo sets in.
And instead of fighting for health care or jobs, Washington ends up fights over
the latest distraction of the week.
It happens year after year after year after year, and this is our
chance to say, "Not this year."
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: This is our chance to say, "Not this time."
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: We have a choice in this election. We can be a party that says
there's no problem with taking money from Washington lobbyists, from oil
lobbyists and drug lobbyists and insurance lobbyists.
We can pretend that they represent real Americans and look the other
way when they use their money and influence to stop us from reforming health
care or investing in renewal energy for yet another four years.
Or this time we can recognize that you can't be the champion of working
Americans if you're funded by lobbyists who drown out their voices.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: We can do what we have done in this campaign and say we won't
take a dime of their money. We can do what I did in Illinois and in Washington
and bring both parties together to rein in their power so we can take our
government back. That's the choice we have in this election.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: We can be a party that thinks the only way to look tough on
national security is to talk and act and vote like George Bush and John
McCain. We can use fear as a tactic, the threat of terrorism to scare up
votes.
Or we can decide that real strength is asking the tough questions
before we send our troops in to fight.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: We can see the threats we face for what they are: a call to
rally all Americans and all the world against the common challenges of the 21st
century, terrorism and nuclear weapons, climate change and poverty, genocide
and disease.
That's what it takes to keep us safe in this world. That's the real
legacy of Roosevelt and Kennedy and Truman. That's why I'm running for
president of the United States of America, to restore that legacy.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: We can be a party that says and does whatever it takes to win
the next election. We can calculate and poll-test our positions, tell everyone
exactly what they want to hear.
Or we can be the party that doesn't just focus on how to win, but why
we should. We can tell everyone...
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: We can tell everyone what they need to hear about the
challenges we face. We can seek to regain not just an office, but the trust of
the American people, that their leaders in Washington will tell them the
truth. That's the choice in this election.
We can be a party of those who only think like we do and only agree
with all our positions. We can continue to slice and dice this country into
red states and blue states. We can exploit the divisions that exist in our
country for pure political gain.
Or this time we can build on the movement we started in this campaign,
a movement that's united Democrats, independents, Republicans, young, old,
rich, poor, white, black, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, gay, straight,
because one thing I know, from traveling 46 states this campaign season, is
that we are not as divided as our politics suggest.
We may have different stories, we may have different backgrounds, but
we hold common hopes for the future of this country that we love.
In the end, this election is still our best chance to solve the
problems we've been talking about for decades, as one nation, as one people.
Fourteen months later, that is still what this election is about: millions of
Americans who believe we can do better, that we must do better, that that is
what's put us in the position to bring about real change.
And now it's up to you, Evansville. Now it's up to you, Indiana. You
can decide...
(APPLAUSE)
You can decide whether we're going to travel the same worn path or
whether we will chart a new course that offers real hope for the future.
During the course of this campaign, we've all learned what my wife reminds me
all the time, that I'm not a perfect man. I will not be a perfect president.
And so, while I will always listen to you and be honest with you and
fight for you every single day for the next four or eight years...
(APPLAUSE)
... I will also...
(APPLAUSE)
I will also, should I have the opportunity to serve as your president,
ask you to be a part of the change that we need, because in my two decades of
public service in this country, I have seen time and time again that real
change doesn't begin in the halls of Washington, but on the streets of
America.
(APPLAUSE)
It doesn't happen from the top down, but it happens from the bottom
up.
(APPLAUSE)
I also know that real change has never been easy, and it won't be easy
this time either. The status quo in Washington will fight. They will fight
harder than ever to divide us and distract us with ads and attacks from now
until November.
But don't ever forget that you have the power to change this country.
(APPLAUSE)
You can make this election about how we're going to help. You can make
this election about how we're going to help those workers in Logansport, how
we're going to retrain them and educate them, and make our workforce
competitive in a global economy.
You can make this election about how we're going to make health care
affordable for that family in North Carolina, how we're going to help those
families sitting around the kitchen table tonight pay their bills and stay in
their homes.
You can make this election about how we plan to leave our children, all
our children, a planet that's safer and a world that still sees America the
same way my father saw it from across the ocean, as a beacon of all that is
good and all that is possible for all of mankind.
(APPLAUSE)
Now is our turn to follow in the footsteps of all those generations who
sacrificed and struggled and faced down the greatest odds to perfect our
improbable union.
And if we're willing to do what they did, if we're willing to shed our
cynicism and our doubts and our fears, if we're willing to believe in what's
possible again, then I believe we won't just win this primary election, we
won't just win here in Indiana, we won't just win this election in November, we
will change this country, we will change the world, we will keep this country's
promise alive in the 21st century.
(APPLAUSE)
That's our task; that's our job. Let's get to work.
Thank you. May God bless you. God bless the United States of America.
We can tell everyone what they need to hear about the challenges they face. We can seek to regain not just an office but the trust of the American people.
That their leaders in Washington will tell them the truth. That's the choice in this election. We can be a party of those who only think like we do and only agree with all our positions. We can continue to slice and dice this country into red states and blue states, we can exploit the divisions that exist in our country for pure political gain or this time we can build on the movement we started in this campaign.
A movement that's united, Democrats, independents, Republicans, young, old, rich, poor, white, black, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, because one thing I know from traveling 46 states this campaign season is that we are not as divided as our politics suggest.
We may have different stories. We may have different backgrounds, but we hold common hopes for the future of this country that we love.
In the end this election is still our best chance to solve the problems we've been talking about for decades. As one nation, as one people. Fourteen months later that is still what this election is about. Millions of Americans who believe we can do better. That we must do better. That is what's put us in the position to bring about real change. And now it is up to you Evansville. Now it is up to you Indiana.
You can decide -- you can decide whether we are going to travel the same worn path or whether we will chart a new course that offers real hope for the future. During the course of this campaign we've all learned what my wife reminds me all the time, that I'm not a perfect man. I will not be a perfect president. So I will always listen to you and be honest with you and fight for you every single day for the next four or eight years I will also ...
KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC HOST: You are watching MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania primary. Here is Barack Obama's speech from Evansville, Indiana.
OBAMA: I will also, should I have the opportunity to serve as your president, ask you to be a part of the change that we need. Because in my two decades of public service in this country I have seen time and time again that real change doesn't begin in the halls of Washington but on the streets of America. It doesn't happen from the top down but it happens from the bottom up.
I also know that real change has never been easy. And it won't be easy this time either. The status quo in Washington will fight. They will fight harder than ever to divide us and distract us with ads and attacks from now until November. But don't ever forget that you have the power to change this country.
You can make this election about how we're going to help. You can make this election about how we're going to help those workers in Logansport, how we are going to retrain them and educate them and make our workplace competitive in a global economy. You can make this election about how we are going to make health care affordable for that family in North Carolina, how we're going to help those families sitting around the kitchen table tonight pay their bills and stay in their homes, you can make this election about how we plan to leave our children, all our children, a planet that is safer and a world that still sees America the same way my father saw it from across the ocean as a beacon of all that is good and all that is possible for all of mankind.
Now is our turn. To follow in the footsteps of all those generations who sacrificed and struggled and faced down the greatest odds to perfect our improbable union. And if we're willing to do what they did. If we're willing to shed our cynicism and our doubts and our fears, if we're willing to believe in what's possible again then I believe we won't just win this primary election, we won't just win here in Indiana, we won't just win in election in November, we will change this country. We will change the world. We will keep this country's promise alive in the 21st century. That's our task. That's our job.
Let's get to work. Thank you. May God bless you. And God bless the United States of America.
OLBERMANN: Senator Obama completing his speech at Evansville, Indiana. And if you have the sudden urge to run out and buy a fleece it is due to product placement, I guess. It did not have seemingly the effect Senator Clinton's speech did. Even though what Senator Clinton said was made up of components of what she said before. As was Senator Obama's.
CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC HOST: Her manner, I think, was much more confident than we've seen before. It didn't have that -- a standard problem with people to keep up with the applause and rise above it.
Which creates a bad tone. She managed to speak tonight with great calm, confidence. I think it was a good message. Which was why she won. Why it is important to win the general election in November. It wasn't a partisan speech in the sense of rivalry kind of speech with Barack Obama.
OLBERMANN: I'll disagree with you on that point.
MATTHEWS: Jump in.
OLBERMANN: On a couple of occasions under those circumstances there was as I said earlier, mocking references to the catch phrases of Senator Obama which are just as ardently as she is supported as her core groups and demographics so is he so ardently supported. And people believe that phrase yes, we can, has a great meaning to them just as what she says to her followers says. To throw that out as I said to Senator Clinton I understand you have a primary to win in Pennsylvania.
I'm not mocking that or denigrating that. But there does seem to be that tone of this is the finals somehow. When there is another round to go. And no matter what you think of these people whichever one of these candidates succeeds the other one is going to have to be a source of votes as simple as that.
It's a really simple equation.
MATTHEWS: The other half of that, however, is that she did win by 10 percent it looks like tonight. Ten percent. It is a clear victory by any estimate. My spread was eight. Other people had seven as the spread. She clearly beat the spread. Beat the number. Came in with a convincing victory. She apparently won very well in the suburbs where I didn't think she'd do that well. It looks like she has done very well in Montgomery County where my brother is the county commissioner. I'm very impressed she can do that well.
Maybe it has this last minute tactic about this really militancy in the Middle East where she is coming out as the one who is going to obliterate Iran. Maybe that moved some older voters, perhaps. But I didn't see that in the numbers when I looked at them. And I wonder what is going on here.
I think Barack Obama has a problem with working white people. Just to be blunt about it. That has been a problem. We'll have to go through these numbers and see them. Clearly he -- Barack Obama was getting 98 percent or better of the African American vote. He was doing very well, I would bet, among four-year college people. But he still has a problem in a state which has so many working white people to convince them he is the one that will deliver them from their economic challenges in the world.
He is going to come through and win the general election. As we saw that in the exit polling, he faced a real problem not just with Hillary Clinton but with her people. Perhaps because of the nature of her campaign as you point out that she has basically ran against Barack Obama. And in so doing has made him unacceptable as an alternative to her own voters come November which is not a good idea. If the Democrats wish to win not just the nomination but the election.
OLBERMANN: And if you want to make it more personal if Senator Clinton wants to win the election, assuming these various extraordinary hurdles that still await her after this are vaulted, what happens at that point? Where is the support she needs from theoretically her automatic support? Where does that come from the it has been burned away in this primary season.
MATTHEWS: I think the Clintons, some people will not like the sound of this, some will. I think they believe they think they are the leaders of the Democratic Party. I believe they think it is their party. To do with as they will.
And for someone like yourself or anyone to criticize what they're doing they feel inordinate. You shouldn't criticize them. It is their party. They'll do with it what they will. That is the Clinton attitude I think most people would assume.
OLBERMANN: A number of million votes suggest otherwise.
MATTHEWS: The minority of votes in Pennsylvania to that view.
Gerry McEntee, the head of AFSCME, a lot of the union leaders, look at the mayors of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Allentown, well, perhaps he came a little more late to the fight.
Chris Dougherty up in Scranton. All of these political leaders of the state, especially the ones in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia all saying we are with President Clinton's successor who is the next President Clinton. That is the way they look at it. Eddie Rendell is a loyalist to the Clintons, to Bill perhaps more than Hillary. They believe it is their party and they're going to rule it.
OLBERMANN: But clearly the Clinton family will not win the election by itself. As much as they may think that.
MATTHEWS: Chelsea Clinton has played a role, Hillary Clinton has played a role, it is almost as if the family is coming back as a group to reinstall itself as the leaders of the party formally.
OLBERMANN: Like a reuniting rock band going back on tour.
MATTHEWS: The Blues Brothers are back. Now it is amazing to watch. I watched how Hillary Clinton very carefully reassembles the family for particular occasions. Bringing their daughter in, of course. Bringing her husband back to a major market area which she's been keeping him away from for weeks. Bringing him back to a big city with her. Bringing her mother aboard. It is a kind of return to destiny on the part of the Clintons. They want this party back.
OLBERMANN: He now goes to North Carolina and we think ahead to that and Indiana. Let's go through the wisemen of our office, our NBC NIGHTLY NEWS anchor Brian Williams, NBC News Washington bureau chief and moderator of MEET THE PRESS Tim Russert and MSNBC special correspondent Tom Brokaw. Tim, I spoke to Senator Clinton last night. She did a couple of interviews. Not only have her surrogates said this but she, in fact, said it in one of those interviews that this will somehow be resolved by June. What is that blueprint in their minds? How is this resolved by June?
TIM RUSSERT, MSNBC HOST: She wins Indiana. Comes very close or much closer than anyone expects in North Carolina. She wins convincingly in West Virginia and Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Comes close in Oregon. And then says to the superdelegates, she calls them automatic delegates, I have demonstrated convincingly that I win the big states, I win the traditional white blue collar voters that you need to carry the Electoral College map come November, I should be your nominee. I have demonstrated Barack Obama, although a good candidate, is not ready this time.
It is going to be interesting Keith, because the more this campaign goes on, the more time the Clintons can buy. They remember the bitter comment. They remember the Wright situation. Perhaps more of those episodes, events will occur.
I'll give you an example. Tomorrow NBC News has learned that the North Carolina Republican Party is having a news conference unveiling a television ad talking about controversial figures in Barack Obama's life and asking the two Democrats competing who are competing for the Democratic nomination for governor why would they support Barack Obama?
This is going to be an interesting development. It is going to inject it appears race front and center in a North Carolina primary by the Republican primary.
And lastly and obviously bring Tom and Brian in here, we have to reset the table. How many delegates did Hillary Clinton win tonight?
Chuck Todd will have the latest numbers I'm certain. It is probably going to g around a net gain of 15. The cumulative popular vote, she'll carry the state by about 200,000. Obama had been leading the cumulative vote by 700,000, so it cuts it down to 500,000.
What happens in two weeks? He can regain all those lost delegates and cumulative popular vote in North Carolina. And even if she wins Indiana does she have any chance of closing down those two metrics? The answer is probably no absent a huge upset in North Carolina. So we go back again to I should be the nominee because I'm tougher and stronger and I can win the Electoral College map. Don't take a chance on Barack Obama even though he has more elected delegates.
OLBERMANN: Brian, where do we turn in history for something like this in American politics? Where it is essentially overruling the outcome theoretically of the game after maybe the teams are already in the clubhouse or locker room which analogy you would like to use?
BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: It's the history book cliche. You go back to smoke-filled rooms but it ain't the same. That's why we keep saying this is all new ground. I agree with Tim's mathematical assessment and his projections. There is a real good chance we end up net and net here. There is a counterbalance for everything that happens in these remaining contests. I would look for John McCain to have some fun with the obliteration quote along the lines of man, they talk about me, as the Democrats continue to worry that this is Republican playbook fodder they're handing out. As to where the Democratic Party is right now you need look no closer than the musical bard of Indiana. The guy you saw on the stage at the end of Obama's remarks, John Mellencamp, the favorite son, he played, warmed up the crowd tonight for Obama. He is also scheduled to play for a Clinton rally in Indiana. More than one.
It's unbelievable when the musicians don't commit.
OLBERMANN: Well, we might have our emissary from one camp to another. Maybe it's a John Cougar Mellencamp brokered pre-convention.
Tom, is it looking like a parallel in history is not so much a primary parallel but an election parallel. In other words, to gain the nomination even with this victory in Pennsylvania, even if it is by that 10 percent margin that we're seeing as we are closing in on 90 percent of the vote in, is it necessary for Senator Clinton to play the role of George W. Bush in Bush v. Gore at a Democratic primary level to get the nomination?
TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: First of all historical precedent is not very helpful because the Democratic Party rules have so changed over the years. If you go back to 1960 John F. Kennedy was on the trail against Hubert Humphrey primarily. Lyndon Johnson thought that he deserved the nomination, that he was best equipped to be president. He arrived in Los Angeles and realized that he was not going to get that.
That John Kennedy had captured the hearts of the Democratic Party. And by the way in those Democratic primaries we talk about rough stuff now.
Remember Hubert Humphrey who was steam rolled if you will by John F.
Kennedy, John F. Kennedy's father's money, Frank Sinatra and a lot of other things in the State of West Virginia. It was a very rough time.
We have not seen any comparable to that during the course of this campaign. 1968 Hubert Humphrey sat back and watched Gene McCarthy and Bob Kennedy slug it out on the campaign trail. Bobby Kennedy thought if he could win California, which he did, he could pull Mayor Daley of Chicago across to his side.
But of course Bobby Kennedy tragically didn't get to Chicago, he didn't get out of the hotel that night in California. Historical precedent is there but at the same time it is not. I think what Senator Clinton has going here as Tim indicated earlier, hoping for more developments that will work against Senator Obama. This is her strategy she is going to play out as long as she can until she hits the wall. We all remember that a couple of weeks ago Senator Harry Reid the Senator majority leader said we will have this worked out by July. I checked around. No one knew what he was talking about because they weren't in on the deal.
OLBERMANN: Tim, summarize this for us as we move on from Pennsylvania. What are we looking at? What is or are Indiana and North Carolina going to look like?
RUSSERT: Well, tonight this 10-point victory Hillary Clinton has won is sizable, is considerable. And it guarantees she will have the money to run a very competitive race in Indiana. Every cent she gets, Keith, will keep the plane in the air and to buy TV time on the air.
And she will raise enough money. She won't be able to repay her $5 million loan and I don't think Mark Penn will be paid off, but she will be on television in Indiana and North Carolina. No doubt about it. She will fund aggressively for the next two weeks. We have our battleground. If Obama can win considerably in North Carolina and beat her in Indiana she'll, I believe, have a hard time going on from there in a serious way. She may want to go to West Virginia and Kentucky and go out on a high note, but I think again, like we saw a lot of people poised to step in and end it. They would do so if she went oh for two.
If she wins Indiana this goes all the way through all the primaries into June.
OLBERMANN: Another D-day is circled on the calendar on May 6.
BROKAW: South Dakota in June. I think we're all waiting for.
RUSSERT: Brokaw, South Dakota.
OLBERMANN: We defer to you Mr. Brokaw. Tom Brokaw, many thanks, Brian Williams, many thanks, Tim Russert, great thanks to you as well.
All right, let's finish it off.
MATTHEWS: Another victory for cable television. The battle goes on. No resolution. Hillary Clinton beats the spread. However, Barack Obama is still in it. He can win in Indiana. I'm looking forward perhaps to see Hillary in a college tour event in Indiana. Perhaps Notre Dame or Indiana University would be good. And perhaps Barack Obama back to another one.
This campaign continues because the Democrats have not yet decided on their nominee. Hillary Clinton has slowed it down again. She pushed the mute button or whatever button you want to call it. How about the pause button.
OLBERMANN: Pause button.
MATTHEWS: The pause button, because superdelegates are unlikely to move right now in either direction. They don't buy this notion that somehow they are going to rush to Hillary Clinton. I think they are going to continue to wait and see what happens in the next two weeks.
We'll be back here again in two weeks. North Carolina will be interesting. I think that if the Republican Party goes back to the old trick it did with the days of Jesse Helms and Harvey Gant running a campaign that is overtly racist, I think that will be a mistake if they do that. I will wait and see if they do that.
OLBERMANN: You heard Tim's hint about this. About calling on Democrats to disassociate themselves with Obama due to controversial figures in his past. One would think the backlash against racism in the America of 2008, it also might have some more politically practical backlash. There is a lot that can be thrown at the Republicans and the past associations of Senator McCain or even some of the current ones.
MATTHEWS: I was fortunate to go to graduate school down there. I love that state. I think it is a better state than that. I hope we don't see this kind of thing.
Because this campaign involves a woman and an African American and a white American and the choices among those three should be based on character and ability and the best interest of this country. We can still get that kind of a campaign done by the end of this year. We can do this. We can do this.
OLBERMANN: Yes, we can.
MATTHEWS: Yes, we can.
OLBERMANN: Chris maintains that 800 toll free number for Senator Clinton to call in to do the college tour.
MATTHEWS: We look forward to it. It will be a great night for her and the campaign.
OLBERMANN: Chris, we'll see you on HARDBALLL. I'll see you on COUNTDOWN.
David Gregory and that White House panel will take over after a short break. For Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann, thanks for being with us. Thanks for being with me.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DAVID GREGORY, MSNBC NEWS HOST: We are back on our continuing coverage here on MSNBC. A decisive night in Pennsylvania for Hillary Clinton. I'm David Gregory. With my RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel.
We join you each night at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time on MSNBC and we are here late night with our post game edition here tonight. I want to go around the panel here as we talk about our headlines for this night.
Still unfolding. Pat Buchanan, the reality is we came into this night saying she had to meet a spread, to win by double digits if this is going to be counted as a victory. It's not done yet. She's got a 10-point margin over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania. It's significant.
PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC ANALYST: It's more than significant. She clobbered him. He lost this race worse than Michael Dukakis won the presidency. More than 10 points. He had the media, the money, he has the huge crowd. The question is has Obama peaked as a candidate? We've all talked ability the arithmetic. He's got the delegates. But has he peaked? That was a tired speech he gave tonight. And she came out, she was soft but strong and confident and smiling. She said the tide has turned. And the tide has turned and the momentum has turned. But once we get past that that we get back to the arithmetic. Which has not turned yet.
But there is a real possibility, I think if he doesn't turn this thing around people are going to say, look, has Barack, the big 12 wins in February, is that over? Is this guy past it? Has the hitting streak burnt out? I think that is the question everybody is asking about Barack Obama.
GREGORY: Rachel, how do you see it?
RACHEL MADDOW, AIR AMERICA: I think tonight, well the 10-point margin is pretty much, that was the common wisdom that she was going to win by. I don't know if it looks like getting clobbered.
GREGORY: I don't know if that was the common wisdom. It certainly went down for the week that it was going to be a lot tighter. That she wasn't going to be double digits.
MADDOW: Pat's prediction last night was six to 12. I'm going to call 10 the common wisdom when I'm sitting next to Pat. You are always right on the money especially when you give a nice wide range like that. Real big and the money is going to land on.
GREGORY: We spent a lot of tonight talking about if she comes in less than ten points it is not going to be a significant victory, it is not going to be changing the dynamic. She was able at least at this stage about 85 percent of the precincts in to hit that number.
MADDOW: Yes. That's right. And my take is if she won by one vote she would be staying in. I think the real question and important number will not necessarily be the margin of victory. I think the important number is the fundraising spike she gets out of this. How can Hillary Clinton convert this victory tonight to money? That is absolutely what she needs. If you are working on the Hillary Clinton campaign and going to Democratic donors, people who have not yet given to Hillary Clinton or certainly have not maxed out, what is your pitch, is your pitch about Barack Obama's weaknesses or is your pitch something about Hillary Clinton? Is it about her strengths, is it about some proposal that she's made? Something she has to offer?
BUCHANAN: Rachel, what good has his money been? What good has his money been? She's outspending him four to one.
MADDOW: I'd rather be him sitting on $41 million having lost Pennsylvania than her sitting on debt looking at North Carolina coming down the pike.
BUCHANAN: She is going to get free media. She is going to get the energy and the fire and the free media. A lot of press guys tomorrow will be shifting over and following her on the bus. Because hey, we have got a hot new race that is what happens when you win.
GREGORY: Eugene, one of the things she said tonight effectively was similar to what John McCain about Mitt Romney. You can't buy this race. He came into Pennsylvania. He outspent her. He was there to compete with her and in the end she was able to hold him off.
EUGENE ROBINSON, "WASHINGTON POST": That was the tone of her remarks. You know, it was a really good night for Hillary Clinton. The margin really does matter and ten points is enough. Is enough for her to claim this as a genuine victory for her. It was a bad night for Barack Obama. It is true that tomorrow in the cold light of day he will still be ahead in delegates, he will still have all this money and if you look ahead two weeks unless his candidacy completely collapses he is going to win big in North Carolina. So that will answer your question about the spread ...
BUCHANAN: Who do you bet on in Indiana?
I would bet on her as of now. I think momentum is going mean something.
ROBINSON: Indiana is a tossup. He is from the next door state.
But she, the other next door state, Ohio, she won pretty big. So it's going to be the battle. This means the bottom line is that nobody is going to coast beautifully to this nomination. Nobody is going to win this beautifully. It is going to be won ugly.
GREGORY: Let's talk about the numbers. I want to talk about how we go forward, Indiana and North Carolina. Let me check in once again with Norah O'Donnell, look at some of the exit polling for the night and the various factors in this race. Norah what do you have?
NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: We heard Hillary Clinton essentially in her victory speech talk about how this is a contest for all people. But we wanted to look specifically about the issue of race. How that has figured into this primary.
After all, between the last primary six weeks ago in Mississippi and tonight, the videos of Barack Obama's long time pastor Jeremiah Wright was circulated.
And Obama had to make that speech on race. So here is what we found when we asked how important the race of the candidate was in deciding their vote today. And among white voters, 83 percent essentially said it was not important among. Sixteen percent said race was important.
That is actually about the same we saw in Ohio. And while Obama's speech on race was generally well received, the Wright issue of course inevitably raised the visibility of race. Did this effect voters'
attitudes. Just a little over one in 10 white voters in the Philadelphia area said race was important. By contrast nearly two in ten white voters in other parts of the state said it was important.
Here is how the vote went among those Pennsylvania white voters who said it was important to them. Clinton won a sizable majority, 75 percent of that compared to 25 percent who picked Obama. As in other races black voters went overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. While Hillary Clinton won white seniors and white working class voters in Pennsylvania by huge margins, we actually looked at the numbers and Obama actually improved his showing in those groups since Ohio. The bottom line, the Wright controversy did not seem to hurt him with the majority of white Democratic voters in Pennsylvania. Back to you.
GREGORY: All right. Norah O'Donnell, thank you very much. Looking inside the numbers. We are looking inside the numbers of the final vote spread in Pennsylvania. It stands at 10-point advantage for Hillary Clinton at this point in the race in Pennsylvania. It's what she sought to do which is to get a big enough victory to claim an outright victory. And there you see, 93 percent of the precincts reporting. It is still 10 points.
We are going to take a break here. When we are going to come back we'll talk to Howard Fineman, look ahead to our panel as well, the upcoming contests, Indiana and North Carolina. What will be the arguments to voters and to those superdelegates.
Our coverage continues right here on MSNBC. Don't go away.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GREGORY: I'm David Gregory. We are following the ongoing race in Pennsylvania which is not quite over yet tonight. We are waiting for 100 percent reporting from the precincts but Hillary Clinton has won a decisive victory in Pennsylvania tonight. With those precincts in, we're at 93 percent. It is a ten-point margin of victory. We have heard from the candidates. We have heard the spin from their surrogates. This campaign goes on with Hillary Clinton saying that she is not going to quit. Howard Fineman has been in the listening post with "Newsweek" magazine, of course all night long.
And Howard, a couple points I want to run by you here. From the Politico tonight, a Clinton spokesman saying in Philadelphia that there is beginning to be a subtle shift in psychology among the superdelegates, this is the Clinton campaign offering this tonight, as they are wondering why Obama has been unable to win this thing despite all the advantages he has. They are boasting tonight of $2.5 million new into the Clinton coffers, 80 percent of those from new donors. New momentum from the Clinton campaign off a big victory.
HOWARD FINEMAN, "NEWSWEEK": I'm shocked that the Politico would be able to detect through the Clinton campaign a shift in the delegate psychology. Of course they are going to say that. That remains to be seen. But the money number is real. I don't know if it is $2.5 million. I was hearing about $1.5 million but that was an hour ago.
Hillary is going have money. As she goes forward to Indiana and North Carolina she's going to have support. I'm told not to be surprised in North Carolina if Elizabeth Edwards shows up at Hillary Clinton events with Hillary and maybe even without Hillary.
I don't think John Edwards is going to endorse. But I think Elizabeth Edwards' sentiments are going to be made clear and that matters in North Carolina. In Indiana Hillary has support of the most popular Democrat in the state, Senator Evan Bayh who has been with her from the beginning and who now becomes a major figure against all odds.
Who would imagine that Indiana would be pivotal. But Evan Bayh is popular.
But Indiana is southern Indiana as well as the Chicago suburbs and that could well be a battle. Also the kitchen sink strategy that Hillary Clinton employed against Obama sort of worked. It's hard to explain the double-digit victory without at least mentioning that.
Hillary is going to be rough. She is going to be nasty, she is going to be negative. She is going to keep running the ad they ran in the last days of the Pennsylvania primary which was an ad evoking memories of the Depression, of World War II, using the voice of Osama bin Laden saying who can stand the heat in the kitchen, Hillary can, Obama can't. We know what Hillary is going to do. The big question tonight is what is Obama going to do. I have been talking to top people in the Obama campaign. My sense is there are two schools of thought. One of them is headed by somebody like Tom Daschle, who is kind of the gray beard and experienced guy from the Senate who is an adviser to Obama. He says hold your fire. Let's go out on an up note. We have the money, we have the delegates and we have the popular vote. Don't be nasty. Don't go out on a negative tone. It is Barack's standing that protects him. It is his calling card in the end.
But inside the campaign I think people like David Axelrod who comes out of Chicago, who knows how to play tough is saying no, we've got to double down. We have got to give it back to Hillary the way she has been giving to us or we threatening to lose this thing.
GREGORY: You saw in the closing days of the Pennsylvania campaign that Obama started to do that. There was a shift where he started to get more pointed in his counterattacks or initiating attacks against her sensing this attempt to kind of ride above it, to talk over her head, to reach those voters in his own base who were fed up with old-style politics that that wasn't working.
FINEMAN: What Hillary did in Pennsylvania there was not a theory, there was not a shred of theory in anything Hillary said in Pennsylvania. It was health care. It was gas prices. It was as real as she could make it. Obama can be real but he also has a theoretical approach to politics, to change the system. It sometimes sounds process oriented. It sounded like that frankly in Indiana tonight. If you listen to Hillary it was all about her as a fighter and her as a bringer of specific meat and potatoes items of change. That is how she is going fight it. It is going to be really nasty and Obama has got to decide if the is going give it back to her in kind in the next two weeks.
GREGORY: Howard Fineman of "Newsweek" magazine, thank you very much as always.
FINEMAN: Thank you, David.
GREGORY: Our political director Chuck Todd is looking ahead now which is what we want to do, Chuck. As we go forward by the numbers and look at the new end game here. You said tonight in your reporting this isn't about pledge delegates any longer there is a kind of new math behind new Clinton momentum if she's got it.
CHUCK TODD, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: It is. I hesitate to use it because you'll have some Obama people will argue, well wait a minute, it is not about popular votes, it's about delegates. The fact is I have talked to superdelegates and these uncommitted superdelegates are watching the popular vote. So let's go through the popular vote. I want to try to find her 200,000 more votes. Because you have -- she picked up a net of 200,000. She was down 700,000. That sliced it down now to 500,000. I want to find another 200,000 for her because she has got Florida. She has 300,000 votes in Florida right here in her back pocket. In her mind she only needs 200,000 to lay claim to this idea that she has won the popular vote.
So where does she go? Let's start at the next two states, North Carolina, Indiana. Our projections have Obama winning North Carolina.
The question is by how much? If he wins it by 10 percent he is probably going to net 150 pledged delegates. See I'm getting into delegates.
Popular votes. A hundred fifty thousand. That would almost negate the 200,000 she's just got out of Pennsylvania. She has to keep that margin closer than 10 points. And frankly, 10 points seems like a fairly small margin for that.
Then there's Indiana. If she wins Indiana very closely by two or three points she is going to net 20,000 votes. She needs to win that by 10, excuse me, something big. Maybe she can net 80,000 votes out of there. The fact is it is very difficult to find her 200,000 more nets.
She can net 100,000 votes out of Kentucky, it's very lucky, she'll net 80,000 votes out of West Virginia. There are her 200,000 votes. The problem is you have got 150,000 deficit in North Carolina that she faces. Then we look toward Oregon. This is maybe the ultimate firewall for Obama. Why is it a firewall? He can spend money now to start saving Oregon to make sure he doesn't lose ground there. He is up big in some early polling that I have heard about. This is a place if momentum from Pennsylvania does happen for Clinton she could possibly pick up something there.
The problem is she's got no money. She has to take all her money and throw it into Indiana and possibly into North Carolina because she can't let North Carolina get out of hand. If she somehow lets North Carolina completely negate Pennsylvania there is no chance she can get the popular vote without it.
So keep an eye on the margin in North Carolina. Can she keep it 100,000, maybe less. Take a look and watch to see if she can ever start spending money in Oregon. She has to figure out how pick off something of his. Oregon is a potential for her if she'll spend the money there.
GREGORY: Just quickly on that money. However much she takes in after a win in Pennsylvania, she is still in debt. She is still way behind. She can complain about Obama outspending her in states like Pennsylvania where he did, but that is going to be a tremendous tactical advantage for him.
TODD: Well, David, I had one professor friend of mine out in California say to me it may -- Pennsylvania may ultimately be the Soviet sort of what the Soviet Union, what Reagan did to the soviet union.
Obama spent so much money there forcing her to spend money he spent her to nothing forcing her to not be able to find the resources to fight on for May 6 and then he shuts it down because he still has all these resources he can spend. She is in bankruptcy a la the Soviet Union and can't seem catch up those three points. Remember, money matters when you are moving two or three points. It could be the end game as far as Indiana is concerned.
GREGORY: A little criminology from our political director Chuck Todd.
TODD: Kremlinology, right?
GREGORY: Right.
The panel, we have a lot to chew on as we look at this. Pat one of the things you will hear Obama make as an argument is the way for Hillary Clinton to win, the way for her to get back in the popular vote total is for her to make a desperate argument to try to tear me down as a candidate. The "New York Times" editorializing this was not a dirty campaign but vacuous campaign because it got nasty toward the end.
BUCHANAN: I think the "New York Times" is preposterous. What she is saying is we are in a grave situation. It is dire. We need strong leadership. I represent it. Look at the crises America went through.
GREGORY: There is a question mark about Obama?
BUCHANAN: She made comparative ads. She said I'm the great leader and he is not. What the heaven's name is wrong with that?
MADDOW: Says the great Republican analyst. Democrats don't usually run ads like that. That's why it's an issue. Democrats have don't run on the be afraid, think of me when you think of death thing, that's a Republican trope.
Democrats have done with a freedom from fear thing for a long time now and I think Democrats are looking for that kind of leadership from a Democratic candidate.
BUCHANAN: They are not looking in Pennsylvania.
MADDOW: Well, in Pennsylvania he went from 16 points to 10 points in six weeks.
BUCHANAN: At the end the thing was widening again. Look, to me this is perfectly legitimate politics by her. I don't see what the problem at all is with that ad. And they are whining. Obama is whining and the "New York Times" is chronically whining.
MADDOW: How is Obama whining?
BUCHANAN: They are all, did you hear what he said, all these things they did. They are not talking about hope.
GREGORY: Let's talk about the Obama that showed up tonight, which was still making a similar argument which is we want a kind of politics on our terms. We don't want a return to the kind of politics that Hillary Clinton is arguing. The kind that she is playing.
ROBINSON: Right. Well, look, first of all, that has been very successful for him. The idea of new politics. The idea of him as a different kind of political leader who doesn't play the traditional games has worked very well for him. Getting away from that, urged by people like Pat Buchanan to hit back hasn't worked as well for him. So I think that's in a sense getting back to what brung him.
BUCHANAN: Look, I agree with you. The sense is it has worked.
February was phenomenal. 12 straight victories. What I'm saying is it ain't working now. She's got it down. She's got a different game plan and hers is working now. I'm not saying the best thing for him is to do the same thing. He may damage the product. But I'm saying he's got a real problem. That was a tired speech tonight, Gene. That was not the guy we used to sit here in awe of when he gave these speeches.
ROBINSON: The thing, it actually wasn't that bad of speech. The thing was we have heard that speech. That was problem. If you actually listen to it and tuned in it was a beautiful speech in my ways but we have heard it. We've heard those ...
BUCHANAN: We've heard it. Everybody has heard it.
GREGORY: Let me interject. Maria Teresa Petersen with Voter Latino is with us as well. I wanted to get your take tonight. We talked about the speeches that we heard from Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. If we have that ready, I want to hear a piece of Hillary Clinton and talk about the candidate that she is now after Pennsylvania as opposed to the candidate she was coming into the state. Let's listen to a piece of her victory speech tonight.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It was in this city that our founders declared America's independence and our permanent mission to form a more perfect union. Now neither Senator Obama nor I nor you were included in that vision. But we have been blessed by men and women in each generation who saw America not as it is but could and should be. The abolitionists and the suffragists, the progressives and the union members, the civil rights leaders, all those who marched and protested and risked their lives because they looked into their children's eyes and saw the promise of a better future.
Because of them I grew up taking for granted that women could vote, because of them my daughter grew up taking for granted that children of all colors could attend school together and because of them because of you this next generation will grow up taking for granted that a woman or African American could be president of the United States.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GREGORY: Maria, we heard a lot from Hillary Clinton about the historic nature of her campaign, the historic nature campaign she wants voters to be thinking about. Was that a difference for you?
MARIA TERESA PETERSEN, VOTER LATINO: Well, first of all, thanks for having me on, David. And I absolutely think she did well in Pennsylvania. What she needs to do, what Hillary needs is a blowout.
And I know, call me crazy but the only blowout you foresee in her future is Puerto Rico. And the reason I say Puerto Rico is right now Puerto Rico has historically voted with who the governor is and how the governor voted. The governor of Puerto Rico right now is an Obama supporter but is under investigation for corruption charges.
And so those 63 delegates all of the sudden that were hopefully going to be in the Barack Obama camp are all of the sudden very much in the clutches of the Hillary camp. At the same time they also vote in record numbers. All of a sudden you have 80 percent of close to two million people going to the polls. If you are Hillary Clinton you definitely want to hit Puerto Rico. Because all of the sudden, what Chuck was talking about of having the possibility of the popular vote, it really does crystallize those numbers in Puerto Rico, David.
GREGORY: Maria, in terms of her chances going forward and what she does, what does Barack Obama do coming out of a loss like this where he has the advantage in pledge delegates, he has still got a financial advantage? How does he move forward and close her down in the next two weeks? He doesn't have to wait six weeks. He has two weeks, now, Indiana and North Carolina. Both states that have plenty of advantages for him.
PETERSEN: He has to continue being steady and go back to the message before. I mean, look, everyone was saying three weeks ago Hillary had a 20-point lead. He cut it to half. That was what one would consider was his worth month. With the bitter comment, with Reverend Wright. He was still able to do it. I would advise him to continue a steady pace and continue his message. Not to get into the gutter, not to go down and start slinging mud.
GREGORY: All right. We're going to take a quick break, Maria Teresa Petersen, thank you very much.
We will take a break here and have some concluding thoughts on our coverage here on a big night for Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania. This is MSNBC, the place for politics. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GREGORY: We are back. A big night for Hillary Clinton. A decisive win in Pennsylvania. Looks to be a 10-point margin in our remaining moments. Ninety-five percent of the precincts reporting. Fifty five to forty five for Hillary Clinton. A popular vote gain for her. So it would seem if you listen to her campaign manager.
And she nets looks like about 200,000 tonight. She still needs a lot more. Around the horn, our RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel on what we look for now on our remaining moments the next couple of weeks before Indiana and North Carolina. Start with you pat.
BUCHANAN: I think Barack Obama should shore up North Carolina and really make a battle of it in Indiana. We were listening to Howard. I would frankly take the advice of Daschle. I don't know that I would start playing get rough with Hillary Rodham Clinton. I don't know that he's any good at that kind of game. I think Hillary Clinton's game, what we saw succeeding in the last week for her in Pennsylvania.
GREGORY: She would bring him down if he does that, in other words?
BUCHANAN: She thinks she has a winning hand. And that's what she's going to try to do and I might try to stay above that battle.
GREGORY: Rachel, what do you see?
MADDOW: At this point I think it's process, process. Not so much the substance of the campaigns anymore. You might remember about a year and a half ago a guy named Atrios coined the term called the Friedman unit which was making fun of "New York Times" columnist Tom Friedman for constantly predicting that in six months we'll know if Iraq is going to be a success. And he kept predicting that over and over and over again. So a six-month period became known as a Friedman unit. I think the Griedman unit is two weeks. Two weeks it is going to be over. It's going to be clear who the nominee is. It wasn't true on Super Tuesday, it wasn't true for the Potomac primaries, it wasn't true ion Texas and Ohio, was not true tonight, not going to be true in Indiana and North Carolina. There's no decisive moment. There's no decisive moment coming. The superdelegates will have to be pushed.
GREGORY: All right. About 45 seconds left, Gene.
ROBINSON: I'd say North Carolina becomes a must-win for Obama.
Indiana is not necessarily a must win but the one thing he has to do is get in the next two weeks is get his mojo back.
GREGORY: All right. Thank to a great panel. Big night for Hillary Clinton. Ten-point edge in Pennsylvania. The race goes on to Indiana, on to North Carolina. A lot more campaigning ahead. Before this Democratic nomination is decided.
We'll see you tomorrow night RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE, 6:00 p.m.
Eastern Time. Only here on MSNBC, the place for politics. Good night.