Government forecasters minimally reduced their prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, saying up to nine hurricanes and up to 16 tropical storms are expected to form.
The forecasters maintained their estimate that three to five of the hurricanes would be strong. The original report forecast up to 17 tropical storms, with up to 10 becoming hurricanes.
But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also cautioned that the season is likely to be above normal, stating that new data has allowed it to increase its confidence level. It now estimates an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season.
Federal forecasters' move Thursday follows that of Colorado State University hurricane researcher William Gray, who slightly lowered his forecast last week.
Gray's initial projection called for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense. He revised it to 15 named storms and eight hurricanes, four of them intense.
After the battering by storms Katrina and Rita in 2005 there were widespread fears last summer of another powerful storm striking, but the unexpected development of El Nino — the periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters that affects wind patters and tends to result in fewer Atlantic storms — helped dampen conditions.
No destructive storms hit the U.S. last year, but forecasters warned this year that El Nino is over, which could prompt conditions that encourage the development of additional storms.
So far, the season has been tame, but August typically marks the start of the most frenetic months of Atlantic weather.
Just as federal forecasters announced their initial seasonal projections in late May, Subtropical Storm Andrea developed about 150 miles northeast of Daytona Beach. The storm skirted the southern Atlantic coast but caused minimal damage.
Tropical Storm Barry formed on June 1, the first official day of hurricane season, and brought needed rain to drought-parched Florida.
Last year, there were 10 tropical storms in the Atlantic and just two made landfall in the United States.