The Democratic presidential race has tightened even more, with Hillary Clinton gaining an edge over Barack Obama among Democratic voters, according to a new Gallup poll.
The March 14-18 national survey of 1,209 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters gave Clinton lead of 49 percent to 42 percent over Obama. The poll has an error margin of 3 percentage points.
Gallup's poll followed one released Wednesday that showed Obama's big national lead over Clinton had all but evaporated. The Reuters/Zogby poll also showed both Democrats trailing Republican John McCain.
The Reuters/Zogby poll showed Obama had only a statistically insignificant lead of 47 percent to 44 percent over Clinton, down sharply from a 14-point edge he held over her in February when he was riding the tide of 10 straight victories.
First significant lead in a month
Gallup said the poll lead was the first statistically significant one for Clinton since a tracking poll conducted Feb. 7-9, just after the Super Tuesday primaries. The two candidates had largely been locked in a statistical tie since then, with Obama last holding a lead over Clinton in a March 11-13 poll.
Gallup said polling data also showed McCain leading Obama 47 percent to 43 percent in 4,367 registered voters' preferences for the general election. The general election survey has an error margin of 2 percentage points.
The Arizona senator also edged Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent but Gallup said the lead was not statistically significant.
The Reuters/Zogby poll also showed McCain leading Obama, 46 percent to 40 percent. That's a sharp contrast from the Reuters/Zogby poll last month, which showed that Obama would beat McCain 47 percent to 40 percent.
"The last couple of weeks have taken a toll on Obama and in a general election match-up, on both Democrats," said pollster John Zogby.
Attacks on Obama over pastor
Obama has been buffeted by attacks in recent weeks from Clinton over his fitness to serve as commander-in-chief and by a tempest over racially charged sermons given by his Chicago preacher.
Obama gave a speech on Tuesday rebuking his pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, for sermons sometimes laced with inflammatory tirades but said he could not disown him and it was time for Americans to bind the country's racial wounds.
Should Obama become the Democratic nominee, conservative activists are virtually certain to remind voters of Obama’s ties to Wright, perhaps by using the videos in TV ads, several strategists said.
"He can give a speech a week, and it’s not going to make the issue go away," said Chris LaCivita, a Republican adviser who helped create the "Swift Boat" ads that severely damaged John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign.
Clinton still behind in delegates
Despite the closeness of the Democratic race, Clinton trails Obama in delegates. Clinton's campaign has been pushing for primary revotes in Florida and Michigan. Clinton won both states but the Democratic National Party took away their delegates to punish them for not following the party's primary schedule.
Obama’s campaign said Thursday that evenly splitting Michigan’s delegates with Clinton would be a fair way to distribute them, now that the chances of a do-over primary are essentially dead.
The Michigan Senate adjourned Thursday without taking up a bill for a June 3 repeat primary. While there still is a possibility a last-minute deal can be reached, lawmakers’ lack of enthusiasm for a second election paid for by private donors means that’s unlikely.
Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, an Obama supporter and former presidential candidate, promoted the idea of splitting the delegates 50-50 in a statement Thursday. “The best outcome is to come to an arrangement where the delegates are apportioned fairly between Senators Obama and Clinton, so the Michigan delegation can participate fully in the Denver convention,” the statement said.
Even split of Michigan delegates?
Obama spokesman Bill Burton said Dodd spoke to campaign leaders about an even split. Burton said they agreed it would be an equitable way of handling Michigan, where Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballot in a renegade Jan. 15 primary.
The Clinton campaign immediately rejected the idea of splitting the delegates. Clinton told reporters while campaigning in Terre Haute, Ind., that Obama’s nomination could be tainted if he achieves it without a second Michigan contest.
“I do not see how two of our largest and most significant states can be disenfranchised and left out of the process of picking our nominee without raising serious questions about the legitimacy of that nominee,” Clinton told reporters.
Harold Ickes, who is leading the Clinton campaign’s efforts to secure delegates, said the campaign would look at a mail-in option in Michigan with the failure of the primary bill.
“Assuming there is not a legislatively required rerun primary, we would seriously entertain the possibility of a party run, mail-in ballot,” he said.