California's powerful public-sector unions back Governor Jerry Brown's call to extend tax hikes to close the state's $15 billion budget gap, but they are breaking with his plan to put the issue in front of voters.
The unions prefer lawmakers extend tax increases expiring this summer because that would eliminate the risk of a defeat at the ballot box which could also jeopardize the pension benefits of their members.
The difference between the governor and one of his key support groups compounds the mess in California's budget politics.
The unions' position could open a rift between Brown and fellow Democrats who control the legislature and who are close allies of public-sector unions. The Assembly speaker last month said tax increases should be left to lawmakers. Brown has steadfastly said taxes should be left to voters.
"We've been strong supporters of the governor's approach to this point but we think the time has come for the legislature to do its job," said Steve Smith of the California Labor Federation, which represents public and private sector unions.
Brown will present a revised budget plan mid-month to show how he would close the remaining $15 billion budget shortfall for the fiscal year that begins on July 1.
Labor's campaign to leave taxes solely to lawmakers starts next week amid a difficult time for public employees unions in the most populous U.S. state.
California voters have grown increasingly aware of their state government's many financial challenges, including massive pension liabilities for public employees.
That mounting public concern has unions aiming for swift approval in a friendly legislature, where they are safe from hostile bills such as those aimed at collective bargaining in Wisconsin and Ohio.
"Feelings of political vulnerability and fiscal vulnerability are placing unions in a position where they would like to get this budget resolved by the end of the fiscal year or at the very latest by summer," said Mark Baldassare, president of the Public Policy Institute of California.
Unions certainly don't want to chance a statewide vote after tax extensions expire by summer. Then the electorate effectively would be voting on tax increases, which are always hard to sell, Baldassare said.
Unions are also concerned a tax measure could share the ballot with proposals to overhaul public pensions, a worrying expense for cash-strapped governments nationwide.
"There are two big risks in going to the ballot: One, that tax extensions fail, and, two, pension changes pass," said Dan Schnur, director of the Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.
PRESSURING REPUBLICANS
Findings of a recent survey for the University of Southern California and Los Angeles Times underscore why unions would rather Brown's tax plan not go to voters.
The survey found Californians strongly favor voting on tax extensions -- and that 70 percent of respondents favor a cap on pensions for current and future public employees, half back cuts to their pension and retirement benefits and 52 percent support raising their retirement ages.
Such numbers have helped stiffen the resolve of Republican lawmakers, who have been demanding dramatic changes to public pensions while opposing Brown's plan to extend tax increases.
Brown had hoped to win Republicans votes for tax extensions so the legislature could put them on the ballot. But Republicans balked, killing a plan for a June election.
Now all eyes in the state capital are on his revised budget plan due this month and whether he urges lawmakers to advance a tax measure to the ballot after the July 1 start of the next fiscal year.
He has warned that he may propose closing the remaining shortfall with spending cuts on top of some $11 billion in cuts and other moves already backed by lawmakers.
Public-sector unions aim to prevent more cuts and seek to rally public support for tax extensions. Teachers will lead the effort, looking for backing in suburban areas where Republican voters live by arguing school spending is threatened.
"We're sure going to work them hard," said David Sanchez, head of the California Teachers Association. "The big losers in this whole game are, obviously, our students."