Iraq's president gave Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki the nod to form the next government Thursday after an eight-month deadlock, but a dramatic walkout from parliament by his Sunni rivals cast doubt on a power-sharing deal reached by the two sides less than a day earlier.
The walkout underlined the Sunni minority's reluctance over the prospective new unity government outlined in the deal, which ensures continued Shiite domination while giving Sunnis a role far short of the greater political power they seek.
Sunni support for any new government is key. The Americans had been pushing for them to have a significant role, fearing that otherwise, disillusioned Sunnis could turn to the insurgency, fueling new violence as the last of U.S. troops prepare to leave by the end of next year.
In a statement, U.S. President Barack Obama urged Iraqi leaders to aim for an "inclusive government" with a sharing of power with the Sunni bloc.
The power-sharing deal reached Wednesday night was heralded by some politicians as a breakthrough, ending the months of wrangling since the inconclusive March 7 parliament elections. But Sunnis were already accusing al-Maliki of not fulfilling promises and have warned they could pull out if they are not met.
'Broken commitments'
At a press conference after the walkout, a lawmaker from the Sunni-backed Iraqiya bloc, Haider al-Mulla, did not answer when asked whether the bloc would participate in the government. Instead, he said Iraqiya would seek "explanations from al-Maliki and State of Law over their broken commitments."
The parliament session began late Thursday with a show of unity, as al-Maliki and his top rival, Iraqiya's leader Ayad Allawi, sat next to each other in the chamber. The session was called so lawmakers could take the first formal steps toward forming the new government by naming senior leadership positions.
The first vote went smoothly, with a Sunni from Allawi's Iraqiya block, Osama al-Nujaifi, elected parliament speaker. But before the vote to elect a president, 57 Iraqiya lawmakers walked out. They had demanded that lawmakers first vote to reverse decisions by a De-Baathification barring three of the bloc's members from holding government posts, but their demand was rejected.
Iraqiya lawmakers have said that as part of the power-sharing deal, the other factions agreed to get rid of the controversial De-Baathification law entirely within two years. Sunnis view the De-Baathification process as a thinly veiled Shiite attempt to bar Sunnis from returning to power.
Despite the walkout — which Allawi and the parliament speaker joined — lawmakers still had quorum and proceded with the session. They elected Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani as president for a second term. Talabani addressed the lawmakers remaining in the parliament hall, declaring, "Today is a day of victory, the victory of the free Iraqi will."
He then took the constitutionally required step of formally requesting that al-Maliki form a new government. Al-Maliki has 30 days to do so, as the factions work out the allotment of ministry positions, including key posts like foreign affairs and the interior ministry in charge of security forces.
Even if the power-sharing deal holds, it could potentially be a setback for the U.S., which had been pushing for a greater Sunni say in power, and a boost for regional rival Iran.
'Check on al-Maliki's power'
The Sunni minority had put great hopes in the March elections and succeeded in lifting their bloc to a narrow victory: Allawi's Sunni-backed Iraqiya coalition won the most seats in the March elections, but not a majority. Al-Maliki, whose State of Law party came in second, cobbled together alliances with Iranian-backed religious Shiite parties, gathering enough seats to thwart Allawi's bids for either the prime minister job and the presidency.
Instead, under the power-sharing agreement, Allawi is to lead a newly created council to oversee issues of security and foreign policy. But the council's powers remain vague, and already there were signs of a fight brewing over the extent of its authority.
Iraqiya lawmaker Falah al-Nakeed said the council would be a 20-member body including the prime minister but headed by Allawi. He said all strategic decisions over security, foreign policy and anything concerning the "destiny" of the country, would have to be passed unanimously by the council.
"It will be a real check on al-Maliki's power," al-Nakeed said.
But lawmakers from al-Maliki's State of Law bloc implied that was not the case. Al-Maliki is unlikely to give up the reins over security issues, and one of his key Shiite partners — the staunchly anti-American Sadrist movement — also appears to be angling for a hand as well.
The United States praised the fact that the new government would have at least some Sunni presence.
"The apparent agreement to form an inclusive government is a big step forward for Iraq," said Tony Blinken, national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, the administration's point man for Iraq.
'We can always change our minds'
But Sunnis appeared to be grudging junior partners.
"I don't think we got what we wanted. We are the biggest bloc, and we won the election," said Jaber al-Jaberi, an Iraqiya lawmaker from the Sunni stronghold Ramadi. "We earned the right to form the government. However, there were powerful forces ... and we compromised."
He warned that Iraqiya could withdraw its support if al-Maliki does not follow through with his promises. "We can always change our minds. We have 91 seats in the parliament."
The extent of Sunni power in the new government will not become clear until the allocation of ministry posts is announced. But their weight in the government will depend on other factors as well. Power in Iraq is often determined not just by formal roles but by the personalities of the individuals and their party backing.
The presidency, for example, is largely a ceremonial job, but Talabani has been able to wield considerable power because of his background as a longtime Kurdish leader and the Kurds' dominance in the north. In contrast, an earlier Sunni defense minister was an independent with no party backing and less authority that his title would suggest.
Allawi has been criticized for his lack of participation in the previous parliament, preferring instead to spend time at his London house. For his council to have any weight, Allawi would have to play a vigorous and daily role.
The new government could also give a significant role to the Sadrist movement, led by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who has grown closer to Iran. Al-Maliki's alliance with the Sadrists was key to keeping him in power.
Sadrist lawmaker Hakim al-Zamili, said they have yet to discuss details of ministry positions. But he said the first thing to do was a shake-up of the security services, raising the prospect that Sadrists seek positions there.
"We think that the first decision the government should take is to change some ineffective military commanders and purge the security forces of corrupt members," he said.
"In one way or another, we have the same atmosphere as in 2005 when Sunnis felt they were misrepresented in government, which in turn contributed to instability," said Yahya al-Kubaisy, a researcher at the Iraq Institution for Strategic Studies. He called Allawi's new job a "face-saving measure."
Despite political squabbles and continuing violence that has unsettled some foreign investors, global oil majors are working to crank up production in Iraq's vast oilfields.
Officials hope to raise production capacity to 12 million barrels per day from 2.5 million now, vaulting Iraq into the top echelon of world producers.