Image: Mike Castle
Rob Carr  /  AP file
Former Rep. Mike Castle of Delaware, a crucial Republican dealmaker who helped ensure passage of the 1994 gun control bill, was defeated in his Senate bid last year.
By Tom Curry National affairs writer
msnbc.com
updated 1/21/2011 3:34:50 PM ET 2011-01-21T20:34:50

Six people shot to death, including a federal judge, a U.S. representative gravely wounded — then a flurry of rhetoric about the need to change gun laws.

But Congress seems unlikely to do that in the aftermath of the Tucson killings.

Even last year and in 2009, when Democrats had control of both houses, Congress showed more support for protecting and expanding the rights of gun owners than for restricting them.

Why? Look at the numbers.

Reacting to the Tucson shooting which left Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D- Ariz., with a traumatic brain injury, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, D-N.Y. has proposed to ban magazines or clips with a capacity of more than 10 rounds of ammunition.

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McCarthy’s bill has 57 co-sponsors. Almost all are from California, from big cities (Minneapolis, Chicago, Portland, Ore., Chicago, Denver, etc.) or from suburbs in the Northeast. No members from rural parts of America have yet signed on to her bill. Nor have any Republicans.

The rural/urban split
Exemplifying the rural/urban divide among Democrats is Minnesota, where two Democrats from the Twin Cities districts, Rep. Betty McCollum and Rep. Keith Ellison, are co-sponsoring McCarthy’s bill, while their rural counterparts, Democratic Rep. Tim Walz and Rep. Collin Peterson are not.

McCollum and Ellison both hold very safe seats. Not Walz, who won last November with less than 50 percent of the vote.

"Walz had a relatively close reelection in a largely rural district. Peterson represents one of the most conservative districts in the state, and the most rural such district,” said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Minnesota. "Both know they are at potential electoral risk with some of their votes with the Democratic leadership and thus do not want to cross the energetic pro-gun constituents in their districts."

With 64 fewer Democrats in the House than last year and with GOP leaders now deciding what bills get brought to the floor for a vote, it would be enormously difficult to pass a bill opposed by the National Rifle Association, the chief gun owners’ lobbying group.

Video: More gun control needed after Tucson? (on this page)
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The NRA argues that the magazines which McCarthy seeks to ban are "standard equipment for self-defense handguns and other firearms owned by tens of millions of Americans. Law-abiding private citizens choose them for many reasons, including the same reason police officers do: to improve their odds in defensive situations."

Last Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a long-time supporter of gun control measures, said, "Let's be honest here, there haven't been the votes in the Congress for gun control," although he noted the Senate did defeat a proposal to allow people with concealed carry gun permits in one state to enjoy the same right when they visited other states.

Support for gun owners in 2009-2010
Even in the last session of Congress when the Democrats controlled the House, there was strong support for legislation protecting or favoring gun owners.

Take, for instance, a measure to allow visitors to national parks and wildlife refuges to carry guns. It was attached to a bill to tighten regulation of credit card issuers in 2009. President Barack Obama signed the measure into law.

On the decisive vote in the House, the tally was 279-147. In all, 105 Democrats, including Giffords, Peterson and Walz, voted for it. Only two Republican voted against the measure:  Mike Castle of Delaware, who was defeated in his bid for the GOP Senate nomination last year by (the ultimately unelected) Christine O'Donnell, and Mark Kirk, now the Republican senator from Illinois.

Both Peterson and Walz got support in last year’s election from the NRA.

In addition, NRA-supported candidates won close Senate races last year in Nevada, Wisconsin, Missouri, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania, and another race in Ohio that wasn’t so close.

To some extent, the NRA was bipartisan: it backed two Senate Democrats, Majority Leader Harry Reid and Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and House Democrats such as Walz, Peterson, Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Jason Altmire of Pennsylvania.

In all, the NRA contributed to 54 Democratic House candidates in 2010. Half of them won, including Donnelly, Altmire, and Walz, all of whom survived close races.

In its summary of the 2010 election, the NRA Political Victory Fund said, “Of the 282 candidates endorsed by the NRA-PVF for the U.S. House, 227 were victorious, for an 85 winning percentage.”

'Pro-gun election upgrades'
Referring to its rating system that scores members of Congress, the NRA added, “In the 111th Congress, there were 226 A-rated and 151 F-rated Representatives. The 112th Congress will contain 262 A-rated (+32) and 133 F-rated (-18) Members.There were pro-gun election upgrades in 27 House districts.”

Why were the Democrats able to pass landmark gun control legislation — including a ban on high-capacity ammo clips — in 1994? And what has changed since?

"The pro-gun forces have superior resources and votes at election time," Schier said. "Democrats can only keep their congressional majorities by winning elections in pro-gun districts and states. The overall decline in crime rates over the past 20 years has also assisted the pro-gun forces."

There's another factor: the 1994 gun control measure wasn’t standalone legislation, but was wrapped inside a massive anti-crime bill which passed only after months of tortuous deal-making. It included other provisions such as an expansion of the federal death penalty — that picked up some support from centrists and conservatives — and items such as a hate crime statute to deter crimes against women — that won support from liberals.

Again the numbers tell the tale: there were more pro-gun-control Democrats in the House in 1994 than there were last year, or than there are this year: 188 in 1994, roughly 145 last year, and fewer than that today.

In 1994, in the crucial final action in the House, it was centrist Republicans — with Mike Castle in the lead — who made the deal with Democratic leaders that allowed the bill to pass.

In the final tally, 46 Republicans voted for the anti-crime bill, including John Kasich, now governor of Ohio, Jon Kyl, now senator from Arizona, and Olympia Snowe, now senator from Maine, as well as five Republicans who are still serving in the House. Voting "no" were 131 Republicans and 64 Democrats.

In the decisive vote in the Senate, again it was a small group of Republicans who made the difference in 1994: John Chafee of Rhode Island, Nancy Kassebaum of Kansas, John Danforth of Missouri, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Jim Jeffords of Vermont, and William Roth of Delaware voted with the Democrats to push the bill over its final procedural hurdle — it did so by a two-vote margin.

Such Republicans are now either defeated (Castle), long since retired from politics (Danforth), or dead (Chafee).

There are also new legal hurdles for gun control advocates to negotiate.  Any bill that Congress might pass would need to stay within the bounds set by the Supreme Court’s 2008 Heller decision which declared that the Second Amendment “confers an individual right to keep and bear arms.”  However the court was careful to note that its ruling didn’t cast doubt on "longstanding prohibitions on the possession of firearms by felons and the mentally ill” or laws imposing conditions on arms sales.

© 2013 msnbc.com Reprints

Video: Cheney: May be time to limit gun magazine size

  1. Closed captioning of: Cheney: May be time to limit gun magazine size

    >>> now to our exclusive behind-the-scenes look at vice president cheney 's life after the white house . the man nicknamed by some critics as darth vader now spends time at his home writing his memoirs with the help of his daughter, liz.

    >> in an exclusive interview that jamie had, she asked if cheney would support his daughter following in his footsteps in running for political office . he's what he had to say.

    >> she's got to decide, obviously, it's her call whether or not she wants to do it. but i'd be very pleased if she decided she wanted to try it. i would help her or stay away, whatever helps most. but, no, i -- if she decides to do it, i would enthusiastically support her.

    >> jamie, national correspondent for nbc's "today" show. she joins us now. and we're hearing if it's wyoming or virginia , feels like wyoming , doesn't it?

    >> i think it's going to be a couple of years. i would guess wyoming over virginia .

    >> and the vice president, former vice president talked about the 2012 race. we talked a little bit yesterday about what he said or didn't say about sarah palin but he talked about some of the other contenders.

    >> he did. and he had this assessment of them, which was more than sarah palin .

    >> we've got a lot of good prospective candidates out there. and i'm intryinged, for example, by, oh, someone like mitch daniels . i like mitch because he's got a breadth of experience as omb director, for example. because he's run a major part of a big corporation, he's run a think tank , hudson institute . he's now been governor of indiana and he's done in indiana what i think we need to do at the national level. now, will mitch run? i don't know whether he'll run or not. is the only potential candidate out there? no, we've got a lot of other good ones. chris christie from new jersey, tim pawlenty from minnesota.

    >> what do you think of mitt romney ?

    >> i like mitt romney very much. mitt has that same experience. on the other hand we've got good senate talent too. people like john thune from south dakota . so i think there's no shortage, let me apologize at the outset to everybody i didn't mention. but the fact is, i think we've got a wealth of talent in the republican party .

    >> uh-oh, so who didn't he name?

    >> you know what i like, this isn't someone who's pretending to not care about politics anymore now that he's left office.

    >> and then the most recent stuff. you thought it was a surprising answer when you asked him about new gun control laws and the potential for new gun control laws.

    >> i really was surprised. when he walked about tucson, he is a well-known gun add voe the tod -- advocate, a hunter. but he opened the door just a little bit, listen.

    >> do you think that this incident -- that there is something that you would support, measures in gun control that should be changed that could help avoid this in the future?

    >> well, i'm not sure exactly what they would be. i'd certainly be willing to listen to ideas. i have always been a gun advocate, obviously had a strong voting record on behalf of the second amendment. that's just what i believe, and whether or not there's some measure there in terms of limiting the size of the magazine that you can buy to go with semi-automatic weapons, we've had that in place before. maybe it's appropriate to re-establish that kind of thing, but i think you do have to be careful obviously that the court -- supreme court 's ruled on the second amendment, it's an important part of our historic legacy, and we're looking for ways to make sure this never happens again, but you still got to go back to the fact that it looks like the cause of this particular tragedy was this one individual who apparently has very serious mental problems.

    >> i think he was opening the issue of magazines going back from 30 down to where they used to be before.

    >> but clearly this is a guy who is still a political junkie. you know, he's always been known as almost much more of a poll than george w. bush was, that he kept track of the senate seats. he was keeping track of who was up and who was down.

    >> i think he loves being in the thick of things. yesterday he said i am gradually adjusting to civilian life.

    >> emphasis on the word gradually.

    >> and telling how he said he'd like to be involved in liz cheney 's run should she run but he'd step back.

    >> that was the wyoming hint. he was basically run saying if she runs in virginia , i better get out of

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