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updated 3/6/2011 1:35:04 PM ET 2011-03-06T18:35:04

As a winter that has pelted much of the nation with unusually heavy snowfall slogs into the home stretch, some heartland communities are readying sandbags, pumps and their frayed patience for what forecasters say could be a flood-soaked spring.

Flat, frosty Minnesota and the Dakotas, no strangers to overflows during the annual thaw, are all but certain to be inundated again as waterways become engorged with melted snow and runoff from saturated soils, the National Weather Service says. But this winter's snowy barrage has enlarged the danger zone in the nation's midsection, with prospects for flooding rated high or above average in river basins from northern Montana to St. Louis.

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The lower Great Lakes could be another trouble spot. Melting snow and heavy rain threatened flooding in all 88 of Ohio's counties last week. The town of Findlay (population 36,000) was submerged, and waters up to 4 feet deep destroyed a building at Cleveland's zoo and killed a peregrine falcon. An overflow creek forced about 200 people to be evacuated from their homes in the Lake Erie community of Sunset Bay, N.Y.

Much of the eastern U.S. has gotten more snow than usual, putting eastern New York state and southern New England at an elevated flood risk, according to the weather service. Connecticut has gotten more than 80 inches. The snowpack ranges from 10 to 20 inches in Rhode Island, which last year suffered its worst flooding in two centuries because of torrential rainstorms.

In the South, where snow wreaked havoc with the Super Bowl in Texas, gave Atlanta its first white Christmas in decades and whitened North Carolina's sugary beaches, it has melted easily into ground parched by prolonged drought.

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"We like to get snow because it recharges our soil moisture, but it just doesn't last long," said Gary McManus, associate state climatologist in Oklahoma, where February storms dumped more than 2 feet of snow. A record-breaking 27 inches blanketed the town of Spavinaw in a single day, but the moisture content was so low, it was the equivalent of just 1.2 inches of rain.

The situation is different across much of the north-central region, where the ground is "frozen, water-saturated and snow-covered" and tributary streams are swollen, the weather service said in a recent report. Computer models suggest the snowpack's moisture level is among the highest in six decades. Much will depend on how quickly it melts and how much rain falls in March and April, the agency said, but conditions are ripe for moderate to severe flooding along the upper Mississippi River — from its headwaters near St. Paul, Minn., to St. Louis.

The report said St. Paul has a 95 percent chance of major flooding. Prospects are equally grim in Fargo, N.D., where forecasters said Red River overflow likely will submerge parts of downtown, and Grand Forks, about 70 miles to the north. Severe flooding also is expected along the James and Big Sioux rivers in South Dakota.

The U.S. Geological Survey has placed additional gauges in the region's streams to improve tracking of water levels, said Robert Holmes, its national flood coordinator.

The scenario is becoming wearily familiar in the Red River basin, where precipitation has been above average since the late 1990s. Fargo flirted with disaster again last year after sustaining a $100 million punch in 2009, when the river exceeded flood stage for an unprecedented 61 days and thousands of people were evacuated.

"It's been something of a siege," said Greg Gust, a weather service meteorologist in Grand Forks. In the roughly 60 years since the weather service has monitored river levels in the basin, there have never been three consecutive years of severe flooding, he said.

Volunteers have begun filling sandbags in Fargo, hoping to stockpile 3 million. In other vulnerable locales, officials are testing flood-control equipment, holding planning sessions and going over checklists with memories of deluges from a few years ago fresh in their minds.

Henderson County, Ill., is still recovering from a flood in 2008, when the Mississippi punched through a 17-mile-long levee, swamped the tiny town of Gulfport and damaged several grain elevators serving corn and soybean farms. It took the state until this month to kick off a long-promised buyout of ruined homes, county board Chairman Marty Lafary said.

Coral Seitz, the county's emergency management director, oversaw demolition of 101 houses and recalled the misery of owners who pleaded to keep their dwellings intact, even though water, mud and mold had left them uninhabitable.

"I held a lot of hands and had a lot of people cry on my shoulder," Seitz said.

The levee has been shored up and officials inspected it last fall, she said. Local leaders will meet soon to make preparations for this spring's flood threat. The county has 169,000 unfilled bags and plentiful sand.

"I know one thing — we're going to be a lot better prepared next time and we're not going to ask anything from anybody," Lafary said.

In Grafton, Ill., a tourist village about 40 miles north of St. Louis at the convergence of the Mississippi and Illinois rivers, 20 homes and businesses were covered and its main road cut off during the 2008 flood. The town was spared last year, and Mayor Tom Thompson is hoping for the best this spring. But extra sand has been ordered and a planning committee formed, just in case.

"I would say there's no doubt we have to be a little more on edge this year because of the significant snowfall to the north," Thompson said.

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The snow already has melted in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, where floodwaters three years ago swallowed up 10 square miles and more than 5,000 homes. For now, the risk is slight and expected to remain so if spring rains hold off long enough for the ground to dry, city public works manager Craig Hanson said.

Still, he's taking no chances. He has checked the sandbag-loading machine and the city's 48 pumps that propel floodwaters back into the river, and has practiced deploying artificial flood-control walls. More than 1,000 truckloads of sand are available.

"What happened in 2008 was horrific, but we do not expect that kind of flooding this year," Hanson said. "Then again, weather patterns can change."

Businesses are preparing as well. Anheuser-Busch says it recently shut down beer production for a day at its brewery in Cartersville, Ga., and instead produced 25,000 cases of canned water for donation to flood-stricken communities.

"Of course, our hope is that this water will never be needed," said Rob Haas, the brewery's general manager.

___

Associated Press writers Jim Suhr in St. Louis and Ian MacDougall, in Providence, R.I., contributed to this report.

Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Explainer: Spring flood forecast

  • NOAA

    "A large swath of the North Central United States is at risk of moderate to major flooding this spring," the National Weather Service said in its latest forecast on Feb. 24. Below are the scenarios by region.

  • North Central U.S.: above average

    Image: Ice backs up on Mississippi River
    Emily M Rasinski  /  St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP
    Ice backs up on the Mississippi River around the Clark Bridge in Alton, Ill., north of St. Louis, on Jan. 24.

    Heavy late summer and autumn precipitation (twice the normal amount since October in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota) have left soils saturated and streams running high before the winter freeze-up. NWS models show this year’s snowpack contains a water content ranked among the highest of the last 60 years.

    The combination put a large portion of the North Central United States at risk of moderate to major flooding this spring, extending from northeastern Montana through western Wisconsin and along the Mississippi River south to St. Louis.

    Information provided by NOAA on February 17, 2011, indicated Fargo, N.D., has a near 95 percent chance of exceeding major flood stage of 30 feet. At a stage of 30 feet, portions of downtown Fargo begin flooding and temporary dike construction is necessary. Approximately a 20 percent chance exists of reaching or exceeding the 40.8 foot record set in 2009. Grand Forks, N.D., has about a 95 percent chance of exceeding major flood stage of 46 feet. There is approximately a 40 percent chance of Devils Lake, N.D., exceeding 1,455 feet, which could partially inundate portions of the town of Minnewauken, including critical infrastructure and roads across the lake, emergency service routes and possibly a small section of the Amtrak train line.

    There is potential for moderate to major flooding on the Milk River and its tributaries in northeastern Montana. The Milk River near Glasgow Montana has about a 90 percent chance of exceeding the major flood stage of 27 feet. Some minor ice jam flooding is already occurring in Montana; additional flooding resulting from ice jams is likely throughout the late winter and early spring.

    The James River at Huron, S.D., has about a 90 percent chance of exceeding major flood stage of 15 feet and a 30 percent chance of exceeding the record 21.2 foot level set in 1997. The Big Sioux River at Brookings, S.D., has a greater than 95 percent chance of exceeding major flood stage of 12 feet and about a 30 percent chance of exceeding the 14.77-foot record set in 1969.

    The Mississippi River is likely to see major flooding from its headwaters near St. Paul, Minnesota, downstream to St. Louis. St. Paul, MN., has about a 95 percent chance of exceeding major flood stage of 17 feet, where secondary flood walls are deployed to protect the St. Paul Airport. Further downstream, the risk of major flooding on the Mississippi (Iowa, Illinois and Missouri borders) will persist into the spring. Much of that region’s snowpack typically accumulates later in the winter. The quantity of spring rains and late-season snow will determine the magnitude of flooding in the Middle Mississippi Valley.

  • Northeast: above average

    Image: Frozen Hudson River
    Mike Groll  /  AP
    The Hudson-Athens Lighthouse is frozen in ice on the Hudson River and in front of the Catskill Mountains in Hudson, N.Y., on Jan. 14.

    There is a small area of above average flood risk in portions of the Northeast, primarily across Southern New England and the Catskills Mountains in N.Y. state. As a result of October and November rain storms, these regions had above normal soil moisture levels prior to the winter freeze, followed by above average snowfall, and river icing in many locations.

    If snowpack and river icing conditions were to persist beyond mid-March, this area could have an elevated risk of spring flooding during the melt period, especially if heavy rains fall during the melt.

  • Southern plains: below average

    Image: Dry area of Texas
    Eric Gay  /  AP
    An irrigation system is used to bring water to a dry field near Hondo, Texas on Dec. 15.

    Fall and winter precipitation over Texas and New Mexico was significantly below average, ranging from 20 to 75 percent of normal from October 2010 to mid-February 2011. Portions of the Pecos River and the Rio Grande basins received as little as 10 percent of normal rainfall. Soil Moisture Analysis by the Climate Prediction Center show drier than normal soils from the surface to as deep as 2 meters.

    This deficit will minimize the amount of water that can be converted to river flows during any rainstorm. Current stream flow conditions as measured by the US Geological Survey range from near average too much below average for stations across this region.

  • Mid-Atlantic, Southeast: below average

    Image: Dry Georgia farm
    David Goldman  /  AP
    Farmer Aries Haygood shows how dry the top layer of soil is on his freshly planted onion farm in Lyons, Ga., on Dec. 10.

    Fall and winter precipitation over the Mid Atlantic and Southeast ranged from 50 to 75 percent of average for this period. Isolated portions of South and North Carolina only received between 25 and 50 percent of normal precipitation. Therefore, soil moisture is well below normal across most of the Southeastern US and the Mid-Atlantic.

    Deficits in the precipitation and soil moisture water contents translate into below average stream flow conditions for much of the region and a below average flood risk for the spring.

  • West: no forecast yet

    Image: Snow in Sierras
    Scott Sady  /  AP
    A utility worker restores service to homes around Lake Tahoe, Calif., on Dec. 20 after a storm that dumped up to 10 feet of snow in places.

    Late February is too early to determine spring flooding potential across the Western U.S. Much of the snowfall which determines spring runoff in the mountain west accumulates during the remainder of the winter and spring.

    Snowpack remains above and much above average in many regions. However, extreme high temperature can lead to elevated melt rates at any time during spring. There is still ample time left in the accumulation period for the spring flood potential to change.

Video: East Coast faces snow, rain, flood threat

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