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Cluttered Republican field confronting Obama

A tangle of at least 17 Republican names, some more serious contenders than others, clutters the field in the party's contest to challenge President Barack Obama in 2012, but none has joined the race officially in a campaign cycle that is unusually late in settling on a front-runner.
/ Source: The Associated Press

A tangle of at least 17 Republican names, some more serious contenders than others, clutters the field in the party's contest to challenge President Barack Obama in 2012, but none has joined the race officially in a campaign cycle that is unusually late in settling on a front-runner.

The absence of a clear leading candidate is surprising given the Republican landslide in last year's congressional elections, a robust throttling of the Democrats not only in Congress but in state governments nationwide. That outcome also signaled a broader dissatisfaction with how the Obama administration was handling its job, especially the economy during its deepest downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

According to Gallup polling records dating back to 1952, when Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower was the party standard-bearer, the Republicans never have been without a leading candidate just 15 months before a presidential election.

Some splintering within GOP
The explanation could be that the Republicans are more divided than usual, given that the mainstream of the party faces a splintering off of ultraconservative Tea Party factions and others with extreme populist or libertarian messages.

"The Republicans' 2010 elections success conceals a deep division in the party, and that is only going to be thrown into starker relief as the campaign moves forward," said Matt Bennett of the Third Way, a politically middle-of-the-road think tank.

That would appear to play to Obama's advantage.

His approval rating sits at slightly below 48 percent, according to a Real Clear Politics average of five major polls. His disapproval number is 45.6 percent, a positive spread of 2.6 percentage points and one that is likely to grow if the economy continues to improve.

The latest unemployment figures show the jobless rate dipping below 9 percent to the lowest level since April 2009 when the president had been in office only three months. But fast-rising fuel and food costs could knock the recovery off course.

Waiting for clarity in crowded race
Republicans appear to be holding back from announcing a campaign, waiting for a better sense of where the economy is headed and what message will most appeal to the party's fractured membership. They also are looking at the mood of independent voters who typically determine the outcome in presidential contests.

Perhaps most important is money. Sources of campaign cash are laying back just like the candidates, waiting for clarity in the crowded race.

Only former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and New York real estate baron Donald Trump, an extreme long-shot, can count on their own finances.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the House of Representatives, have good money machines among backers that they can turn on once they have announced. Gingrich is near to that point. Barbour says he is still thinking but is expected to make a run.

Among that group, probably only Romney will appeal to centrist Republicans and independents. He ran in 2008 but withdrew as Sen. John McCain gained strength toward his eventual nomination.

Romney, a Mormon, is burdened by evangelical Christians' unease with his religion and with having been Massachusetts governor when the state adopted a health care plan very similar to that which Obama moved through Congress last year. Many Republicans have made reversing the national law a no. 1 priority, and Romney will suffer for his association with a state health care formula that his party now calls a socialist takeover of nation's health care system.

Barbour carries baggage over his insensitive comments about America's racial history and the impression that he is a good old boy from the south. Gingrich is three times married, which hurts him with evangelical Republicans, and is known for strident rhetoric, which could turn off moderates.

Both Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, also expected to announce a run shortly, recently were dismissed as commentators by Fox News, the cable television outlet that promotes conservative causes. That was a nod to avoiding charges that the network would be giving candidates free advertising.

McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, has vast name recognition and a fiercely loyal but not extensive base of support. While she has left the door open for a run, party elders are moving to block her candidacy.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who ran to the finish in 2008, also is traveling the country promoting a book and acting like a candidate, although not committing. Palin and Huckabee still work as Fox commentators. Huckabee plays well with evangelicals. He is an ordained Southern Baptist minister but is unlikely to draw independent-voter backing.

Another Mormon, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who is leaving his job as Obama's ambassador to China, is seen as an attractive candidate, although he has not committed to a run for the highest office. He is burdened both by his Mormonism and his ambassadorial association with Obama's government.

Of those widely expected to join the race, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty probably is the least objectionable to the greatest number of Republican primary election voters, which could take him quickly to the top of the group. He will face financing hurdles, however, and has had trouble organizing the top tier of a campaign apparatus.

Outliers and possible big surprises
Other outliers, beyond Trump, are the ultraconservative Tea Party spokeswoman Michele Bachman, a Minnesota member of the U.S. House of Representatives; Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who ran as a third-party candidate in 2008; former New York City Mayor Rudy Guiliani, who also ran in 2008; and former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer, a former Democrat and member of the House.

Also in this group is Herman Cain, a former co-owner of the Godfather's pizza restaurant chain.

Any big surprises could involve New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who vows not to run but is seen by many Republicans as their best and toughest messenger, and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, acclaimed for keeping the state on a level financial course through a period that has seen most other states fall deeply into debt. Daniels, like Christie, has said he has no plans to run.