Image: Asteroid encounter
P. Carril / ESA
Asteroids zip past Earth in this artist's conception. If an asteroid known as 2011 AG5 happens to pass through a particular region of space called a "keyhole" in 2023, it would be on track to hit Earth during a later encounter in 2040.
updated 3/5/2012 8:15:13 PM ET 2012-03-06T01:15:13

An asteroid discovered last year has been gaining notoriety because of a chance that it could hit Earth in 28 years, but NASA scientists say the odds are extremely remote that it will pose any danger to us.

The huge space rock, called asteroid 2011 AG5, is about 460 feet (140 meters) wide and circles the sun on a path between the orbits of Mars and Venus. Astronomers spotted it on Jan. 8, 2011, using the 60-inch Cassegrain reflector telescope on Mount Lemmon north of Tucson, Ariz.

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Some projections suggest the odds of an Earth impact are 1 in 625. But the asteroid is rated a 1 on the 1-to-10 Torino Impact Hazard Scale that denotes potentially dangerous asteroids (1 is the least hazardous rating), NASA scientists say. So while there is a slight chance that asteroid 2011 AG5 could impact our planet in 2040, astronomers still need much better observations to define its orbit.

"Because of the extreme rarity of an impact by a near-Earth asteroid of this size, I fully expect we will be able to significantly reduce or rule out entirely any impact probability for the foreseeable future," Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., said in a statement.

The space rock is currently located in the daytime sky, so astronomers cannot make more observations from Earth until its orbit swings into the nighttime sky. That will occur in a next year, Yeomans said. [Photos: Asteroids in Deep Space]

"In September 2013, we have the opportunity to make additional observations of 2011 AG5 when it comes within 91 million miles (147 million kilometers) of Earth," Yeomans said. "It will be an opportunity to observe this space rock and further refine its orbit."

The asteroid is expected to come near Earth in February 2023, but it will pass no closer than about 1 million miles (1.6 million kilometers) at that time. It will be in the area again in 2028, but it won't come closer than about 10.4 million miles (16.7 million kilometers) from our planet.

The pull of Earth's gravity during this pass, however, could conceivably set the rock on a course that results in a collision with our planet on Feb. 5, 2040.

Yeomans emphasized that the odds of this occurring are remote. Once the asteroid's orbit becomes better known, the 1-in-625 chance of posing a threat to Earth is expected to fade.

"It is important to note that with additional observations next year the odds will change, and we expect them to change in Earth's favor," Yeomans said.

This asteroid is just one of 8,744 near-Earth objects that have been discovered. NASA's Near-Earth Object Observations Program detects and studies these rocks to keep a vigilant lookout for any that might pose a threat to us.

Follow Space.com for the latest in space science and exploration news on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.

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Video: Asteroid headed toward Earth

  1. Closed captioning of: Asteroid headed toward Earth

    >>> you'll be hearing a lot about this next item over the next 11 months. astronomers have identified a new asteroid headed our way and may come so close to earth that it will pass between us and the satellites orbiting in space above us. there is some debate in the scientific community about whether a direct hit is even possible. most steadfastly say, no. this is called 2012 d.a. 14. they say this will be the closest path of an asteroid in the history of tracking such things. and, again, while this pass is supposed to miss us, the experts all say there's nothing wrong with making sure your affairs are in order.

Interactive: Below the belt

Photos: Month in Space: May 2013

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  1. Beauty is in the eye of a hurricane

    The spinning vortex of Saturn's north polar storm resembles a deep red rose in this colar-coded infrared image from NASA's Cassini spacecraft. Measurements have sized the eye at a staggering 1,250 miles (2,000 kilometers) across with cloud speeds as fast as 330 miles per hour (150 meters per second). This image was taken from a distance of 261,000 miles (419,000 kilometers) on Nov. 27, 2012, and distributed by NASA on April 29, 2013. (NASA/JPL/Caltech / SSI) Back to slideshow navigation
  2. Planetary trio

    Three bright planets form a triangle in the western skies over Stedman, N.C., at twilight on May 26. The planets are Jupiter, left; Venus, lower right; and Mercury, upper right. (Johnny Horne / AP) Back to slideshow navigation
  3. The blessing

    An Orthodox priest blesses members of the media shortly after having blessed the Soyuz rocket at Russia's Baikonur Cosmodrome launch pad in Kazakhstan on May 27. The ceremony was part of the preparations for sending three new crew members to the International Space Station. (Bill Ingalls / NASA via AFP - Getty Images) Back to slideshow navigation
  4. Saying goodbye to daddy

    Italian astronaut Luca Parmitano, one of the new crew members heading for the International Space Station, joins his daughter in pressing a hand to the window on May 28 as he gets ready for his launch aboard a Soyuz capsule from Russia's Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. The quarantine procedure is part of the pre-launch routine for the Russians. (Sergei Remezov / Reuters) Back to slideshow navigation
  5. Arrivederci, Earthlings!

    NASA astronaut Karen Nyberg, Russian cosmonaut Fyodor Yurchikhin and Italian astronaut Luca Parmitano wave during a farewell ceremony on May 28, before the launch of their Soyuz TMA-09M spacecraft from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. The three spacefliers flew to the International Space Station and will remain in orbit until mid-November. (Maxim Shipenkov / EPA) Back to slideshow navigation
  6. Blastoff!

    A Russian Soyuz rocket rises from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on May 29, heading for the International Space Station. (Bill Ingalls / NASA via EPA) Back to slideshow navigation
  7. Galactic wheels within wheels

    How many rings do you see in this striking image of the galaxy Messier 94, also known as NGC 4736? This infrared image of the galaxy was taken by NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope and released on May 16. While at first glance one might see a number of rings, astronomers believe there is just one. The feature that looks like a deep blue outer ring is thought to be an optical illusion, created by two separate spiral arms. (NASA/JPL-Caltech/SINGS Team) Back to slideshow navigation
  8. Solar flare-up

    A solar flare erupts from the sun on May 14 in this image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. Between May 12 and 14, four X-class flares erupted from the sun, sending powerful bursts of radiation into space. None of the bursts was directed at Earth. Such flares can temporarily disrupt GPS signals and communications satellites. (NASA/SDO via AFP - Getty Images) Back to slideshow navigation
  9. Looking at the sun

    Women watch a partial solar eclipse from atop Observatory Hill in Sydney, Australia, on May 10. Their eyes are protected from harm by eclipse glasses and solar filters. (David Gray / Reuters) Back to slideshow navigation
  10. Ring of fire

    Skygazers across the Australian Outback were among the lucky few to witness an annular solar eclipse on May 10. The "ring of fire" eclipse is created when the moon is positioned to block almost all of the sun's disk, leaving only a dazzling ring of light exposed. This picture shows the eclipse blazing in the morning sky south of Newman, Australia. The "second sun" is a lens effect. (Nicole Hollenbeck) Back to slideshow navigation
  11. Cosmic doughnut

    In this composite image released on May 23, visible-light observations by the Hubble Space Telescope are combined with infrared data from the ground-based Large Binocular Telescope in Arizona to assemble a dramatic view of the well-known Ring Nebula. The combined imagery gave astronomers a deeper understanding of the nebula's structure. "The nebula is not like a bagel, but rather, it's like a jelly doughnut, because it's filled with material in the middle," says C. Robert O'Dell of Vanderbilt University. (C.R. O'Dell/D. Thompson/NASA/ESA) Back to slideshow navigation
  12. Birth of a tornado

    The storm system that generated a tornado in Moore, Okla., is seen in this photo taken by an instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite on May 20, shortly before the tornado struck. The Moore tornado killed at least 24 people and injured more than 200 others. (NASA/Goddard/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team via Reuters) Back to slideshow navigation
  13. Space superstar

    Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield floats with his guitar aboard the International Space Station as he sings a revised version of David Bowie's "Space Oddity" to mark his departure from the International Space Station. The video of his performance has been watched millions of times since it was posted on YouTube on May 12. (Chris Hadfield / CSA/NASA via EPA) Back to slideshow navigation
  14. Farewell to space

    The sun rises over the horizon in this view from the International Space Station, posted on Twitter on May 13 by Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield with this commentary: "Spaceflight finale: To some this may look like a sunset. But it's a new dawn." (Commander Chris Hadfield / CSA) Back to slideshow navigation
  15. Return to Earth

    A Russian Soyuz TMA-07M space capsule lands in Kazakhstan on May 14. The capsule brought Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield, NASA astronaut Tom Marshburn and Russian cosmonaut Roman Romanenko back to Earth after five months in orbit aboard the International Space Station. (Mikhail Metzel / Pool via AP) Back to slideshow navigation
  16. Iris Nebula opens wide

    A cloud of glowing gas known as the Iris Nebula takes center stage in this infrared image from NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope, released May 24. The main cluster of stars within the nebula is called NGC 7023. It lies 1,300 light-years away in the constellation Cepheus. Lower-resolution data from NASA's Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer were used to fill out the outer areas of this image, which Spitzer did not cover. (NASA/JPL-Caltech) Back to slideshow navigation
  17. Over the moon

    An airplane passes in front of the moon over Philadelphia on May 21. (Joseph Kaczmarek / AP) Back to slideshow navigation
  18. Strawberry cocktail

    A stellar nursery shines 6,500 light-years from Earth in this photo, released May 21 to mark the 15-year anniversary of the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope. The telescope, located in Chile's Atacama Desert, produced the sharpest-ever view of IC 2944, an emission nebula in the constellation Centaurus. "These opaque blobs resemble drops of ink floating in a strawberry cocktail, their whimsical shapes sculpted by powerful radiation coming from the nearby brilliant young stars," ESO officials said. (ESO via AFP - Getty Images) Back to slideshow navigation
  19. Spacewalker at work

    NASA astronaut Chris Cassidy takes part in a spacewalk to replace a leaky pump controller box on the International Space Station's far port truss on May 11. The repair job was successful, enabling the station to make full use of its power-generating system. (NASA via Reuters) Back to slideshow navigation
  20. Orion's fiery ribbon

    A dramatic new image of cosmic clouds in the constellation Orion reveals what seems to be a fiery ribbon in the sky. The scene was recorded by the European Southern Observatory's Atacama Pathfinder Experiment, or APEX, and released on May 15. The orange glow represents faint light coming from grains of cold interstellar dust, at wavelengths too long for human eyes to see. The large bright cloud in the upper right of the image is the well-known Orion Nebula, also called Messier 42. (ESO via EPA) Back to slideshow navigation
  21. Saintly sun

    A bird flies beneath a solar halo, an atmospheric phenomenon sometimes called a "sun dog," over Seaside Heights, N.J., on May 14. The halo arises when sunlight is refracted and reflected by clouds of ice crystals high in the atmosphere. (Lucas Jackson / Reuters) Back to slideshow navigation
  22. Shooting stars

    A shooting star from the Eta Aquarid meteor shower lights up the skies above Barranco de Ajuy in the Canary Islands on May 6, with the Milky Way's glow serving as a backdrop. The Eta Aquarids flash when Earth passes through dust released by Comet Halley. (Carlos De Saa / EPA) Back to slideshow navigation
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