updated 10/31/2014 9:45:12 AM ET 2014-10-31T13:45:12

Show: HARDBALL
Date: October 30, 2014

Guest: Susan Page, Robert Costa, Joe Madison, Liz Mair, Manu Raju

CHRIS MATTHEWS, HOST: Going to the mattresses.

Let`s play HARDBALL.

Good evening. I`m Chris Matthews up in Boston.

The Republicans are all of a sudden going at each other like rats in a
hot tub. Governor Christie`s out spoiling for a fight with anyone in
sight. He`s acting exactly like a governor who`d sic his lieutenant
governor on a hold-out mayor -- you know, the "bridge-gate" guy. In
another ring, Ted Cruz, that reincarnation of Joe McCarthy, is attacking
Jeb Bush, who`s now doing what he wants to do in 2016, go one on one with
Hillary Clinton.

You got to love this stuff. Two years ahead of an election, and
they`re all out there brawling already.

Michael Steele was RNC chair for a while, and Joan Walsh is editor-at-
large for Salon.

Let`s start, folks, with Christie. On the second anniversary of
Hurricane Sandy, he unloaded on a man protesting his handling of the
recovery efforts. The man`s name is Jim Keady. He was a city councilman
in Asbury Park. We showed part of that exchange yesterday. Here`s more of
it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE (R), NEW JERSEY: Listen, you all know me. So if
we`re going to get into a debate here today, it`s going to get very
interesting and very fun. So yes. I understand. So I`ll be more than
happy to have a debate with you any time you like, guy, because somebody
like you doesn`t know a damn thing about what you`re talking about except
to stand up and show off when the cameras are here!

I`ve been here when the cameras aren`t here, buddy, and done the work!
I`ve been here when the cameras weren`t here and did the work! So I`m glad
you had your day to show off, but we`re the ones who are here to actually
do the work! So turn around, get your 15 minutes of fame, and then maybe
take your jacket off, roll up your sleeves and do something for the people
of this state!

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE) cleaned up homes (INAUDIBLE)

CHRISTIE: So -- we`ll see. Now, listen everybody -- what we need...

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE)

CHRISTIE: What we...

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE)

CHRISTIE: Yes. Good. And there`s been 23 months since then when all
you`ve been doing is flapping your mouth and not doing anything! So
listen, you want to have the conversation later, I`m happy to have it,
buddy. But until that time, sit down and shut up!

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE)

CHRISTIE: Yes. Any time you like, buddy.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I`m inviting you (INAUDIBLE)

CHRISTIE: Any time -- any time -- any time you like. It`s wonderful!
Absolutely. Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE)

CHRISTIE: I`ll tell you, there`s about a thousand things I`ll do
tonight. Going to dinner with you is about number 1,001!

(LAUGHTER)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: Well, what do you make of that? I want to go to Joan Walsh
on that because that`s unusual performance for a guy who`s obviously
auditioning to be president.

JOAN WALSH, SALON.COM, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: This is what he
thinks people like, though. I listened to that, I watched that, Chris, and
I think the guy is running. He thinks that his crowd, his people, love
that. He`s thinking about those debate audiences who cheered when --
talking about somebody dying without insurance. He`s thinking of that
rabid, rabid audience that likes to see people bullied and put down. And
that`s who he`s playing to.

I mean, the day before, he said to that public health nurse, who he
was also bullying, Hey, you know, I don`t care if you sue me. Get in line.
I`m used to it. This is the persona that he thinks is going to win the
Republican base, which may have some doubts about him because they don`t
think he`s quite conservative enough.

Temperamentally, he`s conservative enough. He`s a big bully, and he
was having a really good time there. It`s not something I want in a
president, but there are people who like it.

MATTHEWS: Let me -- let me have Michael come in here. Are there
people in your Republican world that will like this sort of street-corner
behavior?

MICHAEL STEELE, FMR. RNC CHAIR, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes, I think
that there will be a place for (ph), appeal (ph) for (ph) it. But I think
a more broad audience of Republicans, it probably would wear a little thin
after a bit, and I think it probably has in some respects. I mean,
Republicans that I`ve heard from who commented on this, you know, it`s not
been, Wow, you go get `em. It`s been, like, Really? You know, just, you
know, tell the guy, Let`s talk about it, and move on.

WALSH: Right.

STEELE: And so I think that there -- you know, Christie -- that`s his
brand. And I think Joan is right. It`s part of the public persona that he
projects out there that has a resonance with a certain group of people,
even among Democrats and independents. But at the end of the day, when
you`re talking about presidential timbre, it`s a different quality set that
they`re looking for. And I think Christie is going to have to find that
balance because doing this in the middle of a presidential campaign, Chris,
I think would fall very, very flat.

WALSH: Yes.

MATTHEWS: It doesn`t seem to be the perfect audition for somebody to
end Washington dysfunction.

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Anyway, today, Christie made no apologies for his "Sit down
and shut up" behavior. Let`s watch him today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRISTIE: If someone`s going to stand up and I ignore them for a
while and then they continue to be rude and talk over me and talk over
people, well, then I`m going to engage. And that`s what the people of New
Jersey (INAUDIBLE) and a lot of people in this country have some respect
for me. And I don`t look forward to doing that stuff, but I won`t shrink
away from it, either. So it`s just another day at the ranch, Rancho
Christie. And so we`ll just keep doing (INAUDIBLE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: You know, I`m trying to figure out how we put together the
public Christie, which is a little tincture of this sort of bullying --
it`s maybe more than that the other day and today, but it`s sort of
acceptable to some people who grew up in the East Coast, I think -- and
then what may be behind it.

After seeing Christie in action yesterday, who doesn`t think that sort
of gives you the vivid picture of what Christie was like when he told his
lieutenant governor to go strong-arm the Hoboken mayor, Dawn Zimmer, to get
that shopping (ph) deal, or that waterfront development approved, or she
wasn`t going to get any money. That guy talks like the kind of guy...

WALSH: Right.

MATTHEWS: ... who would tell his lieutenant governor, Go put the
pressure on this woman.

Let`s look back at how Mayor Zimmer described that encounter, which
she said came at the orders of -- and according to her, the lieutenant
governor said -- the lieutenant governor was told to go put the pressure on
her, the strong-arm on her. Let`s watch it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAYOR DAWN ZIMMER, HOBOKEN, NJ: The bottom line is, she came and she
made a direct threat to me. She came, and when the lieutenant governor
comes, pulls you aside in a parking lot and says that these two things are
connected, I know it shouldn`t be, but they are, and if you tell anyone,
I`ll deny it -- I mean, she felt almost guilty about saying it. She knows
it`s wrong, but that is exactly what they`re trying to do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: Can you be a simulated bully, a verbal bully, a mouthy guy,
and then at the same time not look like you`re guilty of the charges made
against you, in the "bridge-gate" case in all its aspects?

WALSH: I...

MATTHEWS: Michael.

WALSH: Oh, sorry.

STEELE: Well, you know, to be honest, I kind of separate the one from
the other.

MATTHEWS: How?

STEELE: So I separate yesterday`s -- I separate yesterday`s
incidences from the "bridge-gate thing" because that has consequences, the
"bridge-gate." I mean, that clearly had an impact on people, on the
economy and a whole bunch of other things. This was an exchange between a
reporter and -- I mean, between a former councilman and the governor. So I
separate the two.

But I think the overarching picture of just the way Christie tends to
engage with people who disagree with him -- I think that that`s something
that the American people are going to pay a lot more close attention to...

MATTHEWS: Wait a minute! Michael...

STEELE: ... as we get closer to these things. What?

MATTHEWS: What`s the difference between he shouted down a -- a former
city councilman in that picture we just saw, and the way that the mayor of
Hoboken said she treated him -- her?

STEELE: Well -- well, because...

MATTHEWS: I mean, how`s -- what`s the distinction here?

STEELE: ... because that was -- the mayor was talking about a
conversation she had with the lieutenant governor, not with the governor.

MATTHEWS: Yes, but she said...

STEELE: So that`s my point.

MATTHEWS: ... the guy just talked to me last night. The lieutenant
governor comes to here and says, He talked to me last night, and I know it
shouldn`t be this way, but he says if you don`t deliver...

STEELE: Again, Chris...

(CROSSTALK)

STEELE: I get the dots you`re trying to connect, but it`s not the
same thing. It`s not the same as the governor himself going to the mayor
of Hoboken and having that conversation.

WALSH: Well, let me...

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: Joan, I don`t see the difference.

WALSH: A big difference is...

STEELE: Well, of course you don`t.

WALSH: A big difference is we have one on video and the other one,
sadly, we didn`t get on video. But Mayor Zimmer`s complaints become very
believable, all of the whole "bridge-gate," what we came to call "bridge-
gate," was very believable because we did have the context of this guy, who
seems largely out of control sometimes and very, very willing to throw his
weight around -- figuratively, I mean.

And so it resonated. It immediately resonated. You still have the
picture of him up there making fun of reporters asking about the lane
closures, saying, I`m the guy -- Hey, hey, I was the guy who was moving
around the cones, you idiots, like, How dare you ask me questions?

And this -- he thinks -- he says in that second clip, Chris, I don`t
really enjoy this. That`s not true! His staff follows him around.
They`re the ones for the most part who are uploading these confrontations
on YouTube. This is a persona he has carefully cultivated, and then he got
a little shy about it when it seemed to dovetail so naturally with the
"bridge-gate" allegations.

MATTHEWS: Well, you only get one reputation, and the reputation he`s
building is the one on camera right now, and it is going to intrude on the
way we see him and (INAUDIBLE) we don`t see him.

Anyway, let`s move on to another guy in your party here. The great
Frank Mankiewicz, by the way -- I went to his funeral the other day. What
a guy! He said, Always pay attention to what a politician says after they
use the word "but."

So now let`s watch Ted Cruz in action earlier today on CNBC.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ (R), TEXAS: Jeb has not declared his candidacy. I like
Jeb. I`m a fan of Jeb Bush`s. I`m going to let him decide if he`s running
first and let the primary voters make a decision.

But I will say this. We need to learn from history. We need to look
to history and what works and what doesn`t. And the one thing is clear is
that if Republicans run another candidate in the mold of a Bob Dole or a
John McCain or a Mitt Romney -- and let me be clear, all three of those are
good, honorable men, they`re decent men, they`re patriots.

But if we run another candidate in the mold of a Bob Dole or a John
McCain or Mitt Romney, we will end up with the same result, which is
millions of people will stay home on election day, which is what happened
for all three of them.

(CROSSTALK)

CRUZ: And if we run another candidate like that, Hillary Clinton will
be the next president!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: Well, what do you make of that after the word "but,"
Michael? I mean, he said all the nice flowery stuff...

STEELE: Oh, yes.

MATTHEWS: ... then he gets to the word, "but" and then said, This
guy`s a loser.

STEELE: Yes. Yes.

MATTHEWS: (INAUDIBLE) your party has run a lot of center-right people
quite successfully -- Eisenhower and Nixon, you won, Reagan basically moved
a bit to the center when he ran. Let`s face it, he doesn`t show his far-
right face when he was running. W. won. George, Sr., won. This idea that
you only win with far-out right-wingers...

STEELE: Well...

MATTHEWS: When have you won? When have you been victorious with a
hard right-winger? Never!

STEELE: You know what? I`m going to do what you probably don`t
expect me to do here. I`m actually going to applaud Ted Cruz for what he
said. And here`s why.

WALSH: (INAUDIBLE)

STEELE: No, let me tell you why. Because I`ve said for over two
years now, the GOP, to deal with this tension that exists within the party
-- go ahead and nominate the most conservative person you can find because
every election cycle, we go through the same stuff, where they look back
and they point a finger at Bob Dole, they point a finger at Mitt Romney, et
cetera, as if they weren`t conservative enough. I mean, Mitt Romney was a
conservative governor.

MATTHEWS: And you want him to lose.

STEELE: I`m not saying -- this is not about winning or losing at this
point.

MATTHEWS: No, but you...

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: ... never to try it again.

STEELE: Chris, this is about making the conservative case with a
conservative nominee...

WALSH: Right.

STEELE: ... as defined by those individuals...

WALSH: Let the chips fall.

STEELE: ... to the American people, and let the chips fall where they
may with the American people. That`s the only way you get past this
craziness after every cycle, where we sit back and we tear down our
nominee.

WALSH: Right. And you know, it really reminds me of -- there are
people on the left -- I don`t like to do that -- on the right, on the left.
But there are people on the left who truly believe that all we need to do
is run somebody, you know, to the left of Elizabeth Warren. All we need to
do is state our principles more and more clearly, and be more and more
radical. And I don`t -- even though I share some of those beliefs, I don`t
believe that that`s a winning message.

That is what the Tea Party is about. The Tea Party truly believes
that the problem was that these people were too moderate and that all they
have to do -- that there is a silent majority there waiting for somebody
like a Ted Cruz.

STEELE: Right.

WALSH: I`m sure Ted Cruz thinks it`s Ted Cruz. I disagree with him.
I think the three of us disagree with him. But it would be very
entertaining and probably illuminating to see him have a shot at it. He
would lose.

MATTHEWS: I guess (INAUDIBLE) Michael might want to be proving
something a different way.

Anyway, Rand Paul is picking a fight with his entire party. This is
what he said while stumping in Michigan yesterday. Quote, "Remember
Domino`s pizza? They admitted, Hey, our pizza crust sucks. The Republican
Party brand sucks, and so people don`t want to be a Republican. And for 80
years, African-Americans have had nothing to do with Republicans. Why?
Because of a perception. The problem is, the perception is that no one in
the Republican Party cares. We`re also fighting 40 years of us doing a
crappy job, of Republicans not trying at all for 40 years. So it`s a lot
of overcoming."

I think he -- he`s obviously a very intelligence guy, Rand Paul, with
a lot of philosophical reading behind him. And he sounds like a 14-year-
old. What is all this language about, crapping this and crapping that, and
pie -- pizza pie crust and -- what`s his point, Michael?

(CROSSTALK)

STEELE: Again, Chris, I`m going to go there. I applaud him, and I`ll
tell you why. Because what you`re seeing is what I hope will become the
beginning of a "Sister Souljah" moment that needs to happen within the GOP
-- the way we tend to put people in boxes. We got to do, you know,
minority outreach. No, just talk to voters, OK? This is not -- this is
not a complicated task.

And so I think what Rand Paul is beginning to do is just trying to
make this move in a direction that no one else right now in the party is
moving in, in which he`s going to have a different kind of conversation.
And so I think the language and all that notwithstanding, I think it`s
going to be very interesting to watch how he challenges those individuals
standing on that stage next to him in the next 18 or so months to have this
kind of conversation. And I think he`s trying to be the one who leads and
ultimately finishes it.

MATTHEWS: OK, why -- I`m going to ask you a tough question. Why
doesn`t he then come out against these voter suppression efforts?

WALSH: I was about to say that.

STEELE: Again, Chris, this is a process. As you know, in politics in
the 21st century now, we evolve. So this is a process that he`s going to
go through. And look, you don`t just do it overnight. You just don`t come
out and take, you know, the position right away. You work your way into
that conversation. And so let`s see where he is in three, five, six months
when it comes to issues like that because I think...

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: ... by your reference point, the Republican Party`s in the
Cro-Magnon stage right now.

WALSH: But listen, I think...

MATTHEWS: And they`re going to reach homo sapiens in what century?
When are they going to reach full development so they can say everybody
gets to vote?

STEELE: Chris, we are at full development. The question is, we have
two things going on. One is this internal struggle as to what conservatism
is right now, what it means and how we talk about that to people. And then
the next is who`s going to be that leader that puts that package together
for the American people.

WALSH: But I think the real -- I think Rand Paul`s real target,
Michael, is not so much African-Americans, although I applaud even his lip
service to that. I think it`s -- obviously, it`s young people, Chris.
When you ask what about the language, with the "sucks" and the Domino`s and
the "crappy"? He`s trying to reach young people. And young people are a
better target for the Republican Party than African-Americans.

But young people, a lot of them, don`t like the demonization of
African-Americans. They don`t like the "makers and the takers" language,
and they don`t like the racism. So Rand Paul may not make inroads with
African-Americans in the next cycle.

STEELE: I disagree with that.

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: I want to make one last reference to Domino`s, which is the
pro-life pizza, as we know.

WALSH: That`s true.

MATTHEWS: I just want to say that Domino`s comes in 30 minutes. When
is the new Republican Party arriving?

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Anyway, Michael Steele and Joan Walsh...

WALSH: It`ll be longer than that.

MATTHEWS: ... thank you.

(CROSSTALK)

STEELE: ... to bring it, but you know what happened there.

MATTHEWS: That Reince Priebus, that genius, overwhelmed you!

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Anyway, two states -- we`re going to talk next about the
Democrats, two states that could stop a Republican sweep come next Tuesday
night, North Carolina, where we were last week, and New Hampshire, where
I`m going tomorrow morning. Both races are tight, but the Democrats are
calling in the cavalry. The Clintons, both of them, are coming in to fight
for these two Democrats who could stop the Republican sweep.

Plus, the Democrats are poised to make big gains on that other side of
the ballot tomorrow, or next Tuesday. That`s the governors` races. They
could pick up a lot of governors` races, from Pennsylvania to Florida to
Wisconsin, to Michigan, all kinds of states -- Wisconsin.

Anyway, this is HARDBALL, the place for politics.

MILISSA REHBERGER, MSNBC ANCHOR: I`m Milissa Rehberger with breaking
news. State police in Pennsylvania have confirmed that they have captured
accused cop killer Eric Frein. Frein has been on the run since September
12th. That is when two Pennsylvania state troopers were shot outside a
state police barracks in Blooming Grove, in the northeastern part of that
state. One of those troopers was killed.

Frein, who is described as a survivalist, was the target of a massive
manhunt, and he eluded police in the rugged Pocono Mountains for 48 days.
A senior law enforcement source tells NBC News that Frein was caught in a
hangar at the Pocono Mountain Airport and that he was captured in an area
that was not open to the public.

Former FBI profiler Clint Van Zandt joins us, along with MSNBC law
enforcement analyst Jim Cavanaugh. Thank you both for being here.

Clint, let`s start with you. What does where he was captured tell
you?

CLINT VAN ZANDT, FMR. FBI PROFILER, NBC ANALYST (via telephone):
Well, a number of things. Number one, you know, we`ve heard for these last
almost two months-plus that he`s a survivalist, that he can hide out in the
woods under any conditions. And yet it appears that a team of deputy U.S.
marshals on a routine sweep were able to find him in this unused or
abandoned indoor facility.

So what it says to us (INAUDIBLE) law enforcement has really been able
(INAUDIBLE) the last 48 days looking for him to deny him all of the pre-
planned spaces (ph) and food and equipment and tents and hiding spots. By
their actions, they were able to take all of those away from him, reducing
him to try to find an abandoned building to hide out in, to get away from
the cold. And of course, that`s where they got him, without firing a shot.
He surrendered his weapon and gave up.

So you know, he may think he was a really bad guy kill a state trooper
and shoot another out of ambush, but when he faced, you know, regular law
enforcement officers face to face, he did what so many guys will do, he
laid down his weapon and surrendered. Now it`s up to the criminal justice
to deal with him for the trial.

MATTHEWS: Jim Cavanaugh, given what Clint Van Zandt just said, the
fact that he just, in the end, just gave himself up -- what does that tell
you?

JIM CAVANAUGH, MSNBC LAW ENFORCEMENT ANALYST (via telephone): Well,
he was spent. He was spent, like Clint said. You know, he spent 45 days
on the run. And these guys, you know, when they go off into the mountains,
you know, we all think they`re Jeremiah Johnson and they`re living off the
land. And it`s not true. I mean, it`s just like this guy. He`s in a
hangar at the Pocono airport. You know, he really is not as rugged as
purported to be. He did pretty good for 45 days, but he`s probably
exhausted and dehydrated and hasn`t been eating well. And you know, he
gave up.

I`m glad he did give up and -- but we`re going to find out that his
ideology was that of a loser, you know, a violent anti-government guy.
We`re going to be disappointed when we find out all the computer stuff that
the state troopers have already uncovered about him, how he`s probably, you
know, living in this anti-government, anti-police ideology that destroys so
many people.

And what does he do? I mean, he gives a lot of pain to Trooper
Dickson`s family, Trooper Douglass`s family. But he basically destroys his
own life and his own family. There`s no cause that really works. It`s
just sort of a crackpot ideology that these guys get sucked into. It`s not
that distant (ph), really, from what we see from, you know, even
international terrorism. It`s sort of a crazy thinking that killing
someone -- killing some innocent person is going to raise some cause. So,
I think we`re going to see it. We`re going to be disappointed. He`s --
he`s going to be just a loser and we should forget his name and remember
the names of those two troopers.

REHBERGER: All right, thank you to Clint Van Zandt and Jim Cavanaugh.

We will continue to track this story tonight, but now we go back to
HARDBALL.

MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL.

Two states and two women could hold back a Republican sweep come
election night. They are North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan and New
Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen. And right now in the New Hampshire
Senate race, a new WMUR/Granite State poll shows Shaheen leading Republican
challenger Scott Brown by a lot all of a sudden, 50-42 among likely voters.
That`s an eight-point spread.

Down in North Carolina, where we were recently, the Senate race, the
incumbent, Kay Hagan, is four points ahead, not enough there to guarantee
anything against Republican Thom Tillis. It`s 45-41. Hagan`s maintained a
slim but steady lead over Tillis. And polls show that leading -- that lead
is widening a bit, just a slight bit right now.

Joining me right now, "The Washington Post"`s Robert Costa and "USA
Today" Washington bureau chief Susan Page.

So, put these two races in context here. I`m not talking about
whether it`s going to decide who controls the Senate. But it`s interesting
to me that we have got these two developments now. It looks like a really
good lead -- maybe it`s an outlier -- for Shaheen up in New Hampshire,
where we`re going tomorrow morning, and where we were recently down in
North Carolina, and the fact that the Clintons are both jumping into these
races.

Robert, put it together, all of it.

ROBERT COSTA, "THE WASHINGTON POST": Well, Shaheen is I think in a
stronger position than a lot of these Democratic incumbents because,
remember, she comes into race not only as a U.S. senator, but as a former
governor. She`s been involved in Democratic politics in New Hampshire for
three decades.

So, she`s in a pretty good position. And Obama`s popularity in New
Hampshire is pretty bad. It`s in the 30s, the low 40s sometimes. She`s
been able to eclipse that and still run a strong campaign. Down in North
Carolina, Kay Hagan has been able to tag Thom Tillis, the Republican, with
all the conservative things that have happened in that state legislature.
That`s dragged Tillis down and that`s kept her competitive.

MATTHEWS: And what -- can you predict the trajectories here, because
I keep getting things -- they`re all over the place. Is there a sound
reason to believe that Shaheen is getting in a more solid position and that
Hagan is on the rise? Do you think there`s a sound reason for both of
those or either of those, Robert?

COSTA: One reason Republicans thought they had a real shot at New
Hampshire is because Scott Brown, remember, when he won in Massachusetts in
2010, he ran hard as a hawk, he ran on national security, he was picking up
momentum when ISIS was a key campaign issue.

When ISIS started to fade, you started -- Shaheen started to really
come back.

MATTHEWS: Oh, I like that. That`s so -- what do you think of that,
Susan? It seems to me that`s really telling. For some reason, our country
has been so compelled in its interest about self-protection here at home
with Ebola, that the focus on the beheadings and stuff over there in the
Levant, if you will, has really dropped off the screen.

And as -- it`s so well-said, I think, by Robert, that you only think
about -- the topics drive everything. And if the topic is foreign policy
and that kind of security, you`re hawkish and you may go with the
Republican. But if it`s domestic, it gets much murkier.

SUSAN PAGE, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, "USA TODAY": If we look at these
two races you`re talking about, they are going to get a lot of attention
because we will know the results possibly early on election night.

MATTHEWS: Yes.

PAGE: These are two states that close early. But I would say, if
Democrats manage to hold both of these seats, all that tells you is that
the Democrats have avoided -- avoided catastrophe. It doesn`t tell you
that they are going to hold the Senate. Democrats certainly are not --
Republicans are certainly not counting on New Hampshire.

That would be a big upset if Jeanne Shaheen loses. And if Kay Hagan
manages to hold in North Carolina, there are multiple other paths for
Republicans to take to get to majority control. So let`s not overstate
what it means.

But if they both win, it means Democrats possibly are not looking at
the kind of blowout that would be their worst nightmare.

MATTHEWS: But that, Susan, is exactly the way I set it up. I didn`t
say it would be decisive at holding the majority rule. I know you`re
right, but I also knew that I knew that before you said that. And I do
know that.

What I`m saying is...

PAGE: Chris, I`m sure -- I`m sure I very rarely tell you anything
that you do not know. So, that cannot be our standard here tonight.

(CROSSTALK)

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: You`re so sarcastic.

Let me go back -- let me go back to Robert.

What I`m arguing here -- I will go back to Susan.

What I`m arguing is a sweep is going to look like a sweep. If this is
one of those bloody nights, where you get people like Al Franken in
trouble, and even Mark Warner facing a much closer seat, do you see that in
the numbers, while you`re on deck here? Do you think that is possible we
might see a horrendous night?

PAGE: No.

MATTHEWS: Where the people that are -- you think they`re pretty safe,
those people?

(CROSSTALK)

PAGE: I think those are pretty safe.

It has been a surprise that Jeanne Shaheen has been in as much trouble
as she`s been. And we could have a surprise. We could have a surprise in
Kansas and not end up with a Republican senator there, or in Georgia,
Michelle Nunn could come through.

MATTHEWS: Yes.

PAGE: There could be surprises.

But I think what we`re basically looking at is what looks like it`s
going to be a pretty good Republican night, where they finally take back
the Senate, like they thought they were going to do and they thought they
were going to do in 2010. It looks to me like they probably get over the
finish line this time.

MATTHEWS: Yes, I think so too.

Anyway, Kay Hagan and Jeanne Shaheen will be joined this weekend by
the starts of the Democratic Party. They`re the most popular surrogates in
the world. Actually, they`re surrogates. They`re people in temperatures,
Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Just today, it was announced that Bill Clinton will campaign for Kay
Hagan in Raleigh tomorrow in North Carolina. And this weekend, on Sunday,
Hillary Clinton is going to make a long-planned trip to New Hampshire to
campaign for Shaheen and New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan.

What do you make of that, Robert, that the -- are the Clintons timing
this brilliantly to get a piece of the action? Or is this something they
just going to help the people that are at the closest races?

COSTA: I have been speaking with top Democrats and they think the
Clintons really have an effect in a lot of these close races, and not in
the way you think, because when you think about the Clintons coming in, you
think it`s about the urban vote, it`s getting about the African-Americans
out to the polls.

Not so fast. The Clintons really help in the suburbs. If they go
into Raleigh or they go into Milwaukee, they`re really trying to get those
Obama suburban voters reenergized back to the polls.

MATTHEWS: I like the way -- in fact, that`s a big message I`m sure
you will be reporting on as we get closer to 2016 about keeping the
moderate Democrats.

Anyway, Democrats have opportunities from some real good news in the
governor`s races, although they`re all over the place. In Pennsylvania, I
think Tom Corbett`s going down, he will be the first governor to be
defeated really in modern times, to challenger Tom Wolf, for a number of
reasons there.

In Florida, it looks like Republican Governor Rick Scott could lose --
it`s still very close -- to Democrat, former Republican, former independent
Charlie Crist, who last held the governor`s job as a Republican. Crist
leads by three points in the most recent poll, 43-40.

In Kansas, Republican Governor Sam Brownback is trailing, in Kansas,
his Democratic challenger, Paul Davis, by three points in the latest poll
46-43. And up in Maine, Republican Governor Paul LePage is tied with
Democratic challenger Mike Michaud at 42 all.

What do you make of that, Susan? Because it`s hard to find a pattern,
except, maybe generally, people don`t like incumbents? I don`t know.

PAGE: Well, you know, here`s one thing I have noticed.

Four years ago was a great year to be running as a Republican for
governor. Lots of Tea Party support. Some of these governors got in four
years ago when they might not have gotten in another -- another time. That
was certainly true in Florida.

Now they have got to run in a different climate, a climate that`s a
little less friendly. They have got records to run on. So I think while
it looks like a good night for Republicans in the Senate, not such a good
night, as you were saying, for Republicans as governor, although there are
some Democratic governors in trouble too in Colorado and Connecticut, but
more of them on the Republican side are looking pretty chancy.

MATTHEWS: What`s the pattern, Susan, of -- is it the fact that, in
Connecticut, you had a tax increase? I know Connecticut is very tax-
averse. Is that it?

PAGE: I think what is happening across the country is that Americans
are pretty fed up with politics and politicians. They don`t think the
economy is looking good for them, whatever the experts say has happened
with the recovery. And that`s hurting governors wherever they are.

MATTHEWS: Yes.

Robert, last thought. Are the Democrats going to be able to point to
some victories election night, when Clinton -- I`m sorry -- I keep thinking
Clinton -- when President Obama comes out and makes a statement? Will he
claim some victories?

(CROSSTALK)

COSTA: I think so. The question is, how big of a sweep are they
going to have in these gubernatorial races?

I think they`re going to win in Pennsylvania. Corbett is going down.
But can they get that biggest scalp in Wisconsin? Can they take out a 2016
contender in Scott Walker? Can Mary Burke, this humdrum candidate, can she
eke out a victory? That`s my question.

MATTHEWS: Well, I know who is going to be happy if Scott Walker goes
down. That`s my colleague Ed Schultz. He will doing a major hot dog in
the end zone, I think.

Anyway, thank you.

COSTA: I think Chris Christie may be pretty pleased too, competitor
out. That`s been some of the drama behind the scenes.

MATTHEWS: You`re so smart, because that guy is in the on-deck circle
waiting to move up if he wins. Thank you, Robert. You`re the voice of the
future, young man.

Anyway, Susan, thank you for coming on. And you`re as smart as I am,
any day of the week. You know that. You`re just being cute with me.

Tomorrow, we will be covering, by the way, Senator Jeanne Shaheen`s
race up in New Hampshire. And we will have the report on how it looks here
on HARDBALL tomorrow night. We`re going to have a lot of coverage from New
Hampshire tomorrow for everybody.

Up next, we have seen politicians get folksy, but President Obama has
an unusual affinity for that fine F-word itself. And that`s next in the
"Sideshow."

And this is HARDBALL, the place for politics.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL and time now for the "Sideshow."

Here`s David Letterman on the word out there that former Florida
Governor Jeb Bush is readying to run for the White House. Here`s "The Late
Show."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "LATE SHOW WITH DAVID LETTERMAN")

DAVID LETTERMAN, HOST, "LATE SHOW WITH DAVID LETTERMAN": Jeb Bush is
talking about running for president.

Wow, that would be the third member of the Bush family to be president
if he wins. We have for you now a Jeb Bush update. Take a look at this.

NARRATOR: Former Republican Governor Jeb Bush is considering a run
for president and told the Associated Press that his mother, the former
first lady, who once said that there had been enough Bushes in the White
House, was now neutral, trending in a different direction. Keep us posted
on what mommy thinks, Jeb. A message from Sarcasticorp, a family company.

(LAUGHTER)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: Next up, Jeff McCormick is an independent candidate running
governor up here in Massachusetts. His latest ad shows what all
politicians need to show, audacity.

Just take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Nelson Mandela once said, it always seems
impossible until it is done. Since moving to Boston with $800 in his
pocket, Jeff McCormick helped build successful companies like Boston Duck
Tours and Constant Contact, creating thousands of jobs.

Now, as the outsider running for governor, Jeff is the only candidate
willing to fight the status quo. Sometimes, an opportunity for change can
seem possible.

But for Jeff McCormick, that`s the greatest opportunity there is.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: I said audacity. I can`t be sure, but that did sound an
awful lot like Morgan Freeman voicing that ad, Morgan Freeman.

Anyway, finally, new data reveals that President Obama likes to say
the word folks a lot. According to BuzzFeed news data analysis, the
president has used that word folks at least 348 times during his news
conferences.

For the full monty of that word, here`s a 2012 White House briefing.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: But also asks for
additional revenue from folks like me, from folks in the top 1 or 2
percent, to make sure that folks who can least afford it aren`t suddenly
bearing the burden.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: I guess that`s not all, folks.

Anyway, up next: Ralph Nader slams Hillary Clinton, calling her a
corporatist and a militarist. Anyway, according to Nader, she`s a menace
to the country. And he warned Democrats not to coronate her in 2016. What
do we make of that? We have got a hot debate about Nader and Hillary
Clinton coming up in our roundtable.

You`re watching it, HARDBALL, the place for politics.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

REHBERGER: I`m Milissa Rehberger with breaking news.

Accused cop killer Eric Frein has been captured by Pennsylvania State
Police after 48 days on the run. Frein allegedly shot a state trooper
during an ambush at a police barracks on September 12. Another trooper was
also wounded. He was taken into custody today at an airport hangar in the
Poconos. During the weeks-long manhunt, police two homemade pipe bombs and
an AK-47. Frein was said to be a survivalist who managed to elude
authorities for weeks while in the woods -- back to HARDBALL.

MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL.

Well, it`s getting nasty out there. Chris Christie pounds away at a
heckler. Ted Cruz says a Jeb Bush candidacy will mean a Republican defeat
in 2016. Rand Paul says the Republican brand itself sucks like bad pizza
crust. Oh, yes, and Ralph Nader slams Hillary Clinton as a menace to the
country.

Well, that`s pretty strong.

Who`s right and who`s wrong in these fights?

The roundtable tonight, Joe Madison, host of "Madison Show" on
SiriusXM`s Urban View network. Liz Mair is a former online communications
director for the Republican National Committee. And Manu Raju is senior
congressional reporter for Politico.

As we showed you earlier on CNBC today, Ted Cruz was asked if Jeb Bush
was too moderate to run for the White House. Let`s watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ (R), TEXAS: Jeb has not declared his candidacy. I like
Jeb. I`m a fan of Jeb Bush`s. I`m going to let him decide if he`s running
first and let the primary voters make a decision.

But I will say this. We need to learn from history. We need to look
to history and what works and what doesn`t. And the one thing is clear is
that if Republicans run another candidate in the mold of a Bob Dole or a
John McCain or a Mitt Romney -- and let me be clear, all three of those are
good, honorable men. They`re decent men. They`re patriots.

But if we run another candidate in the mold of a Bob Dole, or a John
McCain or Mitt Romney, we will end up with the same result, which is
millions of people will stay home on Election Day, which is what happened
for all three of them. If we run another candidate like that, Hillary
Clinton will be the next president.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: You know, Liz, way back in 1952, that`s the speech that
Everett Dirksen made before Ike Eisenhower, Dwight Eisenhower was
nominated, went on to two big victories.

So, I don`t whether he`s right or not. I have looked at the pattern
of your party. And you have ran some center-right candidates with some
effect, Nixon, of course. Reagan became more centrist as he ran in his
presentation certainly, and certainly W. winning and George Bush Sr.
winning.

The moderates don`t always lose.

What do you think -- what do you make of Ted Cruz`s motive for saying
something like that?

LIZ MAIR, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I think Ted Cruz, his motive is that
he wants to fire up the base and tell them something they would very much
like to hear, and something that is going to inspire them to donate money
to his political committee, but which frankly is not actually substantiated
when you go out and you look at the data.

The reality is that the reason that John McCain lost and the reason
that Romney lost is not because they were moderate. There were specific
reasons why McCain lost, that were to do with the direction that people
felt that country was going in, months and months before we ever got even
really into 2008.

And as far as Romney is concerned, you know, the reality is, Romney
didn`t lose because he was moderate, he lost because he was a terrible
candidate, just an absolutely terrible candidate. And yes, he was a bit
too moderate for my tastes on certain economic policy topics, but the
reason people didn`t want to vote for him wasn`t fundamentally because of
that. It was a whole host of other things.

And so, I think Ted Cruz, when he says that`s one thing that`s
certain, he`s actually completely incorrect about that. That`s one thing
that`s not certain.

MATTHEWS: Joe Madison, looking across the aisle, I think it`s fair to
say who are looking across the aisle. Who do you fear most as a challenger
to the Democratic nominee, whether it`s Hillary or not, would it be
somebody center right or somebody hard right?

JOE MADISON, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: You would fear someone who is
center right. You know, the extremes never win. They don`t win if they`re
hard left. They don`t win if they`re hard right.

Now, they may campaign, and we all know this, in the primaries,
because they`re going after a certain part of the base to make sure that
they -- especially if there are four or five candidates, Chris. You know,
they`ve got to win.

But the reality is, when it comes to the general election, we see it
in the debate, we see it in the appearance, they all move right back to the
center. Everybody has done that because it is the center that tends to
govern, and it`s the center that wins elections. And so, you know, Ted
Cruz, you know, I agree with the Republican to my left here. It`s just a
way to try to rally the base early.

MATTHEWS: OK, let`s talk about the other side, because there`s sort
of both sides to do in this thing. Good for the goose, good for the
gander. Ralph Nader had some very strong words the other day about Hillary
Clinton when he was asked about her. He warned Democrats not to, his word,
coronate her in 2016.

Here`s Ralph.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RALPH NADER (I), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, Hillary is a
corporatist and a militarist. Do we want another one of those? She thinks
Obama is too weak. He doesn`t kill enough people overseas. So, she`s a
menace to the United States of America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: Manu Raju, sir, take over here for Rob Nader, because I
don`t -- I know every progressive I know is so mad at him over Florida, you
know?

MADISON: That`s right.

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: I have another theory about it. He pulled Al Gore over to
the left on the corporate issues and he exposed a lot of the middle to W.,
and that`s how W. got close enough to grab it in the Supreme Court. Your
thoughts?

MANU RAJU, POLITICO: Well, Ralph Nader represents a minority on the
left. But still, he speaks to the populist economic message that folks on
the left feel like not only Obama has missed during his time in office, but
also Hillary and the Clintons. They don`t rail against the big banks the
way Elizabeth Warren does, or the way that Bernie Sanders does.

And that`s something Hillary will have to reckon with. She`ll have to
fine-tune her economic message and speak to the base at the moment that
wants to hear more fury rhetoric out of their politicians. And you`ve seen
Hillary try to fine-tune that message on the campaign trail in recent
weeks, going into battleground states. Of course, she sort of stumbled on
that issue when she talked about, you know, businesses and whether they
create jobs.

But that`s something that she`ll have to deal with when she runs,
because folks in her party want to hear her talk about that.

MATTHEWS: Let me go back to Liz.

Hillary Clinton, where would you put her politically? I would say
she`s at least two notches to the right of Obama on foreign policy,
security issues. She`s much more hawkish than he is. I think I know that.

On the domestic side, I think she`s a notch or two to his right if
he`d go by the language the Clintons have used, people who work hard and
play by the rules, making abortion safe, legal and rare. Certainly, the
way they`ve sold themselves is moderates.

MAIR: I think it`s really important that people start distinguishing
Bill Clinton from Hillary Clinton. When you actually go and you look at
his political record, versus her record in the Senate, there are actually
some fairly major differences there. That`s probably something she`s going
to want to underline actually if she does run, in the course of the
primaries. But Bill Clinton, I think, is much more of a centrist than she
is or has ever shown herself to be.

But as far as the war record is concerned, yes, you look at her Senate
record, and she did have a pretty hawkish record. That being said, you
know, somebody who`s been critical of President Obama`s ability to
basically go and start wars and continue wars is pretty much all over the
map. You know, she was his secretary of state. At the end of the day, I`m
not sure there`s as much daylight there as people want to pretend.

MADISON: Yes, but let`s go back to your original question, and that
is Ralph Nader. And, you know, Ralph Nader is not even in the ballpark. I
guess he doesn`t have General Motors to kick around anymore.

And I like Ralph. When I see him, we speak, we talk. But Ralph
Nader, you know, is just, you know, he`s saying things to get attention
because here we go, it`s campaign season.

And the reality is he`s right about this. I don`t think she should be
coronated. He`s absolutely right, and I don`t think she will be.

But I also say this about Hillary Clinton, Chris, and I heard your
show the other day, somebody made a baseball analogy about different kind
of pitches. And I`m going to use a football analogy.

She reminds of the Denver quarterback, Peyton Manning. She calls
those plays as she sees what the defense is doing. She doesn`t have a
problem calling different plays depending on what audience. And that`s
what you`re supposed to do this early in the campaign.

MATTHEWS: That sounds like Bill to me. That`s Bill right there.

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: When Cuomo was in the race, he was off on the moderate
side. The minute Cuomo pulled out, he went right into the position and
forced Paul Tsongas over to that more moderate side.

MADISON: That`s right.

MATTHEWS: I saw his movement there. He moved his offense with the
defense and the other side. Thank you, by the way.

The roundtable is coming back with a hot one. Up next, Democrats are
raising the heat in the South, especially. They`re trying to ignite a
bigger African-American turn-out come next Tuesday by waving the bloody
shirts -- that`s an old phrase from the Civil War -- of Trayvon Martin and
Ferguson, what happened out there. That`s ahead.

This is HARDBALL, the place for politics.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: And a reminder, tomorrow night, I`ll be up in New Hampshire
covering that hot Senate race up there between Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and
Republican Scott Brown. We`ll find out what`s happening on the ground in
the Granite State, heading into the final weekend of campaigning. And
we`ll have a report right here on HARDBALL tomorrow night.

Back after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: We`re back with the roundtable -- Joe Madison, Liz Mair and
Manu Raju.

Anyway, "The New York Times" reported just today that, quote,
"Democrats in the closest Senate races across the South are turning to
racially charged messages, invoking Trayvon Martin`s death, the unrest in
Ferguson, Missouri, and Jim Crow era segregation to jolt African-Americans
into voting and stop a Republican takeover in Washington", close quote.

Well, a Democrat-leaning super PACs started by Majority Leader Harry
Reid is running a radio ad in North Carolina right now attacking Republican
candidate Thom Tillis for passing the kind of gun law that he says, quote,
"caused the shooting death" -- "caused the shooting death" of Trayvon
Martin.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, SENATE MAJORITY PAC RADIO AD)

AD NARRATOR: And Tillis won`t fight for us. Instead, he made it
harder for communities of color to vote, by restricting early voting and
voter registration.

Tillis even led the effort to pass the type of stand of ground law
that caused the shooting death of Trayvon Martin.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: Joe Madison, is that within bounds or out of bounds, that
kind of ad?

MADISON: Well, first of all, it`s within bounds and it has been
within bounds for a long, long time. If you never ran that ad, that`s the
message that`s going on in the barber shops, the beauty shops, talk radio.
I mean, you don`t have to have an ad to remind Africa-Americans in North
Carolina -- look, most people know that the stand your ground law was used
as a defense, to some degree, in the Trayvon Martin. I was in Florida when
we rally in reference to that.

MATTHEWS: Was that used in his legal defense, that new law? Or did
he -- I thought he used self defense?

MADISON: They claimed it wasn`t used, but there was still that
overtone. It was still stand your ground.

But that is something that the African-American community is concerned
about, rallying against, and they have known this. And Reid wouldn`t have
to run a single ad. It`s an issue. And, quite candidly, "The New York
Times" is about a year behind the news.

MATTHEWS: OK. Let me go to Liz on that.

Is this inbounds or out of bounds, do you think? The stirring up of
people this way?

MAIR: I think pretty much everything in politics is inbounds.
However, I will also say this. That may be what the discussion is, but if
that were actually being reflected in the polling that these candidates and
Harry Reid is looking, that ad would not be -- that ad would not be
running.

There`s obviously a motivation issue. And, at the end of the day,
Democrats wouldn`t be going here if they weren`t getting their booties
kicked all over town when it comes to these Southern races. I think in
North Carolina, they may yet pull it out. But in some of the other ones,
they`re going to get spanked. And that`s the bottom line.

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: OK, you got all your images in there.

Manu Raju, let me ask you about this, the African-American vote, is
there a reason to believe that there`s not going to be a good black turnout
in this election?

RAJU: Yes, I think there is, and that`s a real fear for the Democrats
in these states. I mean, you look at polling in African-American
communities in these southern states, and the president is overwhelmingly
popular among that population. But those Democratic senators have been
running away from the president while they`ve been trying to court voters
who don`t like the president. That`s going to be an issue for them come
Election Day.

You`re not going to see the same level of turn out that you would in a
presidential election, even though Democrats have invested millions and
millions of dollars in these key states to target these voters, maybe they
can bring out some to the polls. But enough to turn an election, say,
Louisiana or Arkansas, I don`t think that`s going to happen.

MADISON: I don`t know.

MATTHEWS: I hate to see, I hate to see -- running scared is a winning
tactic. I think if you don`t hang together, as they said in the days of
the Founding Fathers, you hang separately.

Anyway, thank you, Joe Madison.

MADISON: Yes, thank you.

MATTHEWS: Thank you, Liz Mair. It`s great to have you. Manu Raju,
thank you, sir.

We`re up here in Boston right now. As I said, when we return, let me
finish with a tribute to the long-time beloved mayor of this city, Tommy
Menino, who died today.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: Let me finish tonight with something rare in our country: a
beloved politician. Tommy Menino was mayor of this city for 20 years. And
never once in that time did anyone, and this is truly rare in American
politics, did anyone get the idea that Tommy had lost his personal
connection, personal connection with the people who put him in office.

When the people of Boston came to him with help in something which was
easy because he went from one public event after another on into the night,
he did the follow up personally. He made sure that the problem with the
playground got fixed. No problem was too small because Tommy Menino seemed
convinced no person was too small. If they came to him with a problem, it
was must have been important enough to them. That meant it was important
enough for him.

And this is in just word of mouth or a matter of repetition. "The
Boston Globe" took a poll several years back and discovered that a
majority, a majority of the people living in Boston had actually met their
mayor personally.

Menino, who died early today, was a liberal. He marched on the city`s
gay pride parade, and skipped the one in Southie that banned gay groups.
When Massachusetts made it legal, he was proud to celebrate the first same-
sex marriage in the city.

In an era when it`s not so obvious, Tommy Menino, this city`s beloved,
long time mayor showed the honor, the joy and the actual love in big city
politics. Sometimes, it really happens, when you get a man of the people,
who personifies the good the public life can bring, the honor that falls on
those who lead it well, who give the people all they have. The man they
called, "Mumbles" never failed to communicate his love for Boston and its
people.

That`s HARDBALL for now. Thanks for being with us. We`re up in
Boston.

"ALL IN WITH CHRIS HAYES" starts right now.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY
BE UPDATED.
END

Copyright 2014 CQ-Roll Call, Inc. All materials herein are protected by
United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed,
transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written
permission of CQ-Roll Call. You may not alter or remove any trademark,
copyright or other notice from copies of the content.>