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'Up with Steve Kornacki' for Sunday, September 6th, 2015

Read the transcript to the Sunday show

Date: September 6, 2015
Guest: Sarah Crowe, Jason Johnson, Lynn Sweet, Nan Hayworth, Harry Cicma,
Mike Freeman, Lola Ogunnaike, Ben White

JONATHAN CAPEHART, MSNBC ANCHOR: The journey to reach a better life. I`m
Jonathan Capehart. Good morning, thanks for getting up with this Sunday
morning. I`m Jonathan Capehart. Steve Kornacki has the morning off.

Thousands of refugees make it to Germany after a long and dangerous journey
from their war-torn homeland, with thousands more still behind them. We`ll
have the latest on the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Europe in just a

Also this weekend marks 20 years since Hillary Clinton`s landmark speech in
Beijing, declaring that women`s rights are human rights. That`s coming up
along with a release of brand new polling information on where things stand
in Iowa and New Hampshire. You don`t want to miss that.

Plus, it`s been a week of presidential firsts for President Obama. All the
details on that are ahead.

But we begin with new developments in Europe`s migrant crisis. More than
7,000 asylum seekers arrived to applause, cheers, gifts and food at the
Munich train station in Germany yesterday. They are the first of
thousands. Many of them fleeing Syria`s long civil wars. Germany and
Austria temporarily opened their borders to them after the migrants and
refugees were stranded in Hungary for days. Hungary says it will not help
any more migrants in their journey west. They bussed more than 4,000
people to the Austrian border on Friday night. Yesterday, a second wave of
people set off for Budapest toward the Austrian border, abandoning the
train station in order to walk toward a better life.

The European Union has appeared ill prepared to deal with the crisis,
caught off guard by those who are arriving and unable to stop thousands
more from trying. This morning the pope called on every parish and
religious community across Europe to take in one migrant family. The
Vatican says it will be taking in two. The recent mass migration and
refugees - refugees and migrants to Europe isn`t just that continent`s
problem. Many believe it`s an American problem as well. And humanitarian
groups have called for the United States to take in 65,000 Syrian refugees.
14 Senate Democrats wrote a letter to President Obama in May asking him to
do just that, and that was before the numbers to Europe started to swell.

But to date the U.S. has welcomed or has plans to welcome just 1800 Syrians
fleeing the horrific four-year old war. "The New York Times" reporting,
quote, "Within the Obama administration there has been intense discussion
about additional action, including the possibility of a major announcement
tied to Pope Francis` visit to Washington this month." NBC`s Andrea
Mitchell asked Hillary Clinton whether the U.S. should take in more Syrian
refugees in her exclusive interview Friday.


HILLARY CLINTON: I think the entire world has to come together. It should
not be just one or two countries or not just Europe and the United States.
We should do our part, as should the Europeans. But this is a broader,
global crisis.


CAPEHART: Joining me now, Sarah Crowe, spokesperson for UNICEF. Let`s
also welcome this morning a panel. Jason Johnson, a political professor at
Hiram College, Lynn Sweet, columnist and Washington bureau chief at "The
Chicago Sun Times" and former Republican congresswoman Nan Hayworth, who is
also working as a volunteer co-chair here in New York for the Carly for
America campaign. Thank you all for being here. Sarah, Let me start with
you. What should the United States be doing?

SARAH CROWE, UNICEF SPOKESPERSON: Well, the entire world has to react.
This is fast becoming a global crisis. The kind of images that we`ve seen
in the last few weeks really seems to have been a wake-up call. Because
it`s put children at the heart of this crisis, this refugee and migrant
waves that are coming into Europe. The most important thing is really to
look at the root causes. What is pushing these people out? And that is
the Syrian crisis. So, we are urging united action across the world,
across Europe particularly, but the only way to end this misery is to end
the conflict. And that is the first key point here.

CAPEHART: "The Huffington Post" Sam Stein asked Secretary Kerry about
taking more refugees in an interview on Friday. Take a listen.


SAM STEIN, HUFFINGTON POST: Can we take more? I mean Germany is taking

JOHN KERRY, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: Well, I`m not talking about taking on
a permanent basis.

STEIN: Sure.

KERRY: We`ve got a huge refugee camps in Jordan, in Lebanon, that are
spread more in the population. In Turkey refugee camps and when maybe that
we have to set up some sort of refugee camp structure for the time being in
order to deal with it.

CAPEHART: Sarah, your response?

CROWE: Well, yes, it is, indeed, a global issue now. And, you know, we`re
seeing in Syria, for instance, the majority of people are displaced there.
8 million people in Syria are displaced. 2.7 million children are out of
school within Syria and in the surrounding neighboring countries. So, this
is engulfing the Middle East and Northern Europe. What we`re urging right
now is really safeguarding children`s interests, and that means protecting
them when they come through and making sure that they have their basic
needs met. Children have special needs, and they need to be treated first
and foremost as children and not as migrants or refugees.

CAPEHART: Sarah, let me ask you, I am going to combine two questions into
one. The first part is, do you think the European countries can come
together with some sort of unified response to this crisis? The second part
of the question is the Arab world is doing next to nothing about this. Can
we get them to do more?

CROWE: Well, actually, it`s not true that they`re doing next to nothing.
The majority of those who are displaced and refugees in the Middle East are
going into Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan. They`re taking the big bulk of the
numbers. But when it comes to children moving in now into Europe, we`re
seeing a 75 percent increase in the number of children who are looking for
asylum. Of course, they`re with their families in the most case. So, they
need to urgently be taken care of, to be protected, to be schooled if
they`re at school age. And also just to have their most basic needs met.
At the moment, we`re seeing children being left often out in the open.
These kinds of horrific images really need to be -- the only way to stop
this suffering is really a united action across Europe. And we`re coming
into the General Assembly soon. We hope this will really push now a
diplomatic solution to the Syrian crisis in particular.

CAPEHART: General Assembly at the United Nations is what Sarah is talking
about. Let me bring in the panel and read something from "The New York
Times," the "New York Times" writing that the exodus of Syrians highlights
the political failure of the West, that we failed to find a solution to the
war in Syria and failed to invest enough in humanitarian resources.

JASON JOHNSON, HIRAM COLLEGE: I completely agree. And this is -- you
can`t put it all on President Obama, but this is on President Obama, on
Vladimir Putin, this is on every single leader who tried to irresponsibly
say we`re going to manage what`s going on with Assad, we`re going to manage
what`s going on with the insurgents, but we are still going to sell them
weapons. I think this is a responsibility for every single nation that has
had any sort of involvement there. And these people, it`s through no fault
of their own, but therefore, still the responsibility of other nations

NAN HAYWORTH, FORMER CONGRESSWOMAN: I agree with Jason that there`s been a
failure of leadership on the part of -- let`s talk about the United States.
Because we are the world`s greatest democracy and we are the defender of
freedom. Yet we have pursued a path over the past several years that has
essentially largely ignored the pleas of our friends, the friendly
democracies that are in the Middle East. Israel, Jordan, the Kurds.
Democratic, freedom loving peoples who are in the midst of a developing
sectarian crisis. Yet we have empowered -- effectively, we are empowering
the Islamist theocracy which foments violence in Iran. And these are
fundamentals that have to be addressed.

CAPEHART: Here is the thing that I keep thinking about as we`re talking
about this crisis, especially four years ago when it started, what
specifically should the United States be doing? I mean, this is a war-wary
country, wary of two wars in the Middle East. The idea of going into Syria
is something that a lot of Americans don`t want to do.

LYNN SWEET, CHICAGO SUN TIMES: You`re talking, though, on two levels. The
refugee crisis is something that`s a lot easier politically for Congress to
address. I would not be surprised if, when Congress returns from summer
break in a few days, that this is addressed. This is a place that U.S.
workers, aid assistance and other countries can do something. And, as well
I think I wouldn`t be surprised if in time there are more refugees that are
taken in.

I think people remember in this country about the not repeating errors in
the past of not taking in people during World War II, Polish (ph) Jews.
We`re not going to repeat that, I bet. But in this case, though, there are
people right on borders of countries that could help them. I think for the
moment, you can`t conflate this with the larger issue of an ongoing,
thorny, almost intractable seemingly situation in the Mideast.

CAPEHART: I was thinking about what Sarah had said about getting to root
causes. And correct me if I`m wrong, Sarah, when I hear root causes, I`m
thinking you`re talking about the conflict between Bashar al Assad and the
folks trying to oust him. And when we talk about action from the west and
action specifically from the United States, what exactly can be done?
That`s what I`m looking for. And I`m not hearing that.

JOHNSON: And that`s the thing. You mentioned Iran, but truth of the
matter is, it`s infinitely more complicated than that. Because dealing
with Syria also required us to deal with Russia, also required us to deal
with China. We can`t just, as you mentioned, Jonathan, we can`t just march
into Syria. The country doesn`t have the money, we don`t have the
resources. We don`t have the political will. But we do have to find some
way to bring both of these sides to the table in a more consistent fashion.
That`s the only way this kind of instability, these refugees, these
migrants, however it is we want to describe them, that will cause
instability in other countries, which could be a bigger issue down the

CAPEHART: Sarah, let me end with you here with just a basic question. Why
do we always find ourselves in this situation? When I say we, I mean we as
people on this planet. Once again, we are watching other people in other
countries fleeing conflict and fleeing their homelands because they have no
other choice.

CROWE: Well, I think since the beginning of time, human beings have done
that. We`ll continue to do that. If I could just give you some up-to-date
information from my colleagues on the border of former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia and Greece, they`re seeing today 5,000 people coming through, and
children particularly in desperate need, very dehydrated and so on. So
we`re on the ground there with a small operation, bringing in water, water
bladders, psychosocial treatment for children. They don`t want to talk
about their journey and they don`t want to talk about the war that they`ve
seen, that no child should ever see. Really again it`s underlying the need
for diplomatic efforts. That is the only way that is going to end the
suffering and the misery in the long-term.

In the short term, there needs to be united action across Europe and across
the Middle East to try and support search and rescue operations,
safeguarding children`s rights. All of these international agreements that
are already there, that all these countries have signed up for. The
Convention of the Rights of the Child. It`s really about implementing
these international principles in a very humane, orderly, dignified way
that respects the rights of people who are refugees and migrants.

CAPEHART: Desperate times for people in search of peace. Sarah Crowe of
UNICEF, thank you for joining us this morning.

Still ahead, how Hillary Clinton`s words in Beijing 20 years ago helped her
form the campaign message she`s putting out today.

But first Tom Brady scores a victory against one of the most powerful men
in professional sports. What`s next for Roger Goodell and the NFL? That`s
next. Stay with us.


CAPEHART: Snapchat users throughout New England were treated to a new
(inaudible) filter this Thursday, 2016 NBC News campaign embed Kailani
Koenig snapping herself in Maine with a filter that reads, "Tom is free."
This after a federal judge threw out a four-game suspension of Patriots
quarterback Tom Brady on Thursday, a punishment meted out by the NFL after
its investigation of deflate-gate earlier this year. But the league is
appealing the decision, saying in part, quote, we will appeal today`s
ruling in order to uphold the collectively bargained responsibility to
protect the integrity of the game. While the legal phase of this process
continues, we look forward to focusing on football and the opening of the
regular season.

The ongoing saga of deflategate is one of many public headaches for the
league. There`s an upcoming film talking about the high rate at which NFL
players get concussions starring Will Smith, called, nationally
"Concussion." And "the New York Times," reports that the league worked with
filmmakers in an effort to control the narrative. The director of the
film, defending the creative decisions, telling the "New York Times,"
quote, there was never an instance where we compromised the story telling
to protect ourselves from the NFL." The NFL adding in a statement, quote,
"we`re encouraged by the ongoing focus on the critical issue of player
health and safety."

It`s also been one year since Ray Rice was suspended after a video showed
him punching his then fiancee in a hotel elevator. He has since been
reinstated and is currently a free agent with only days to go until the
regular season begins. Joining me now to talk about all of this is Harry
Cicma, sports reporter for WNBC, and Mike Freeman, NFL columnist for the
Bleacher Report. Thank you both very much for getting up on a holiday
Sunday to be here with me.

Tom Brady said this in a post on Facebook. I want to get -- see what you
make of this. He says, "While I pleased to be eligible to play, I am sorry
our league had to endure this. I don`t think it has been good for our
sport. To a large degree, we have all lost."

MIKE FREEMAN, BLEACHER REPORT: First of all, I love the notion that a guy
who is worth $100 million, is married to a super model, is free like he`s


FREEMAN: I covered the NFL for 25 years. It`s the single dumbest story
I`ve ever covered. It`s crazy. It`s about deflated footballs and really
is about a battle of egos, the quarterback ego. A guy who says he didn`t
do it, but to me there is clearly something there, and a case he did, and
the commissioner ego, the most powerful person in sports. And neither side
wanting to give in. This is where we are, it`s been crazy, almost a year
of all of this. Yes, this is a crazy story.

HARRY CICMA, WNBC: Fans are definitely turned off right now with all the
scandals. You mentioned Ray Rice, of course Adrian Peterson with child
abuse. That`s one we didn`t mention. It`s just piling on top, one upon
another. And now Tom Brady, one of the biggest stars in the league. I
think it was ridiculous, definitely ego-based, and I think the judge made
the right decision nullifying the suspension, simply because there wasn`t
enough proof. You could not have without reasonable doubt. Meanwhile, the
fact that there`s an appeal shows another ego situation with Goodell. He
just doesn`t want to be the man left out of --

FREEMAN: He doesn`t want to lose.

CICMA: Yeah, he doesn`t want to lose.

CAPEHART: I`ll come back to Roger Goodell in a moment. Wasn`t the judge`s
decision not about the guilt or innocence of Tom Brady? It was all on
process, in terms of the way that Roger Goodell applied the suspension, is
that correct?

FREEMAN: Yeah. One of the dynamics here is the power of Roger Goodell.
You talk to players, they really hate Goodell, they hate that he has this
power, they think it`s unfair. And while a lot of players are suspect of
the Patriots, they love that Tom Brady did this. Love it. They love to
see Tom Brady take on Roger Goodell. They want somebody to take him on and
take on all the power that he has.

CICMA: You have to ask yourselves, what teams aren`t doing this? Is it
only the Patriots? Of course you have spy gate with the Jets and Hernandez,
the murder and terrible situation there. But Tom Brady is a pretty classy
guy. I know he likes the balls to be a little bit softer. He throws a
very heavy ball. It`s harder for the receivers to catch. But ultimately
he`s a class act and I think Tom Brady`s pretty clean.

CAPEHART: Let`s talk about Roger Goodell. The venerable Washington Post,
my day job, several sources told the paper Friday that NFL owners are
planning to re-evaluate Roger Goodell`s role in the player disciplinary
process. Do you think those discussions will go anywhere?

FREEMAN: I`ve spoken to a couple of owners and there`s definitely a
movement to try to get something at least discussed. But the owners --
part of this is the owners` fault. One thing that happens with this story
is that Roger Goodell is like a heat shield for the owners. They like the
fact that he`s out there, taking all the heat, and they can be over here
doing what they`re doing and nobody is even talking about them. I don`t
know if they`re going to go after his power. They like the fact that he`s
taking the heat.

CICMA: I think the biggest problem right now is that the fans are turned
off. I heard from dozens of fans. They don`t even want to watch the NFL
anymore because of the scandals. Of course deflategate may be the straw
that broke the camel`s back. Goodell is taking the heat, and really he`s
doing this right now with Tom Brady just to hold an iron fist, to try to
keep himself afloat. If he drops the ball on this one, it could be the

CAPEHART: On that note, thank you. Mike Freeman, Harry Cicma, thank you
for joining us this morning.

Still ahead, the clues investigators hope will help them find a cop killer
in Illinois. Next, why this weekend is so significant for Hillary Clinton.


CAPEHART: Hillary Clinton is campaigning in Iowa after spending the day in
New Hampshire yesterday. NBC`s Kristen Welker is live in Newton, Iowa.

KRISTEN WELKER, NBC: Hi, Jonathan, good morning. Well, Secretary Clinton
will be courting the labor constituency over this holiday weekend. Her
goal is to move beyond this e-mail controversy. But that gets very
difficult when there continues to be this drip, drip, drip of information.
And just yesterday, another revelation. Secretary Clinton acknowledging
that she paid her State Department staffer, Brian Pagliano, to set up and
maintain her private e-mail server while she was secretary of state. Now,
Brian Pagliano is the same staffer who also said he was going to plead the
Fifth, refusing to testify before a congressional committee. Secretary
Clinton continues to want to move beyond this controversy, but it gets very
difficult to do that. She of course gave that big interview to NBC`s
Andrea Mitchell, expressed regret for using a private e-mail account. And
then we had another revelation on Saturday.

Today she will be here, trying to turn the page and be focused on the
economy, on jobs. But nipping at her heels, Bernie Sanders, his surge has
been fueled by an anti-establishment sentiment here in Iowa and other
places, also of course by that e-mail controversy. He is within striking
distance of her, within just seven points of Secretary Clinton, according
to the latest poll. Now looking forward, it is going to be a very busy 48
hours, a lot of the candidates expected to be out on the campaign trail
during this Labor Day holiday. A lot of eyes are going to be on Vice
President Joe Biden, he will be making Labor Day in the battleground state
of Pennsylvania as he continues to mull a run. Jonathan?

CAPEHART: Kristen Welker, thanks.

Yesterday at a campaign event in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton stressed
her commitment to more than half of the American public.


CLINTON: These are not new fights for me. You know, I`m happy to have
others join the fight. I`m happy to have people discover some of these
problems. You know, too often -- too often these are called women`s
issues. Well, I am a proud, lifelong fighter for women`s issues, because I
firmly believe what`s good for women is good for America.


CAPEHART: Those remarks coming in the midst of an important weekend for
the former first lady. It was 20 years ago this weekend during a speech in
Beijing that Clinton famously declared women`s rights are human rights, and
on Friday, during her exclusive interview with NBC`s Andrea Mitchell,
Clinton reflected on what`s happened in the decades since then. Take a


CLINTON: I was very humbled and proud at the same time to represent the
United States and make that speech and to set forth a platform for action.
20 years later, I would say this. Women and girls have made progress in
health and education. But if you look at economic rights and
participation, political rights and participation, security and conflict,
we have a lot to do. As a senator, as secretary of state, I argued
strongly for putting women`s rights at the center of foreign policy. This,
for me, was not only a moral issue, a humanitarian issue, a rights and
equality issue. It was a security and strategic issue.


CAPEHART: Have questions surrounding Clinton`s use of a private e-mail
server clouded her campaign`s focus this week on women`s rights and women
voters? Is her intended message breaking through all of the controversy?
The panel is here to discuss this. What do you think?

HAYWORTH: Jonathan, I would say number one, I would say we are very
fortunate to have, in this presidential race a woman candidate who is
effectively addressing the issues that plague America`s women.


HAYWORTH: Her name is Carly Fiorina.


HAYWORTH: But seriously. To contend, as Hillary Clinton does, as
Secretary Clinton does, that she has the unique voice on behalf of
America`s women is completely false.

SWEET: Hold on. I don`t think she`s saying anything that`s false on this
one. Whatever you might think of Hillary Clinton, she has a track record
on women`s issues that go back decades, even before her famous Beijing
speech, okay? And I`m not here to knock a woman candidate, okay? But
what`s fair is fair, okay? Carly Fiorina might be another voice. They
might agree or disagree on their approach to women`s issues, which are
human issues.


HAYWORTH: No dispute there.

SWEET: But one of the strong suits no matter what you think of Hillary
Clinton, is going back to her days working for the Children`s Defense Fund
as the first lady of Arkansas and before that, frankly, working with the
fund. And so I think we have to put that speech and what she did in New
Hampshire yesterday was trying to rally her troops around one of the most
noncontroversial aspects of her strong, indisputable record. And actually,
by the way, I don`t think the message that she welcomes fight on women`s
issues, I don`t think she was talking about Fiorina on this one.


SWEET: She had some other boys in mind.

CAPEHART: Specifically boy.

JOHNSON: Yeah, exactly. She knows full well a lot of these candidates
will not have anything to say. And I think it`s important that because of
what Hillary Clinton has been talking about, she has brought together this
idea that, yeah, women are humans.


JOHNSON: Unfortunately too many politicians don`t realize that.

SWEET: Let`s put this in context, though. Campaigns happen on several
levels. Her campaign also put out a video where -- to prove my point that
Fiorina is not, in this one, the issue. The Clinton campaign put out a
video ad slamming her main rivals, using their best of quotes that put them
just on the wrong side of women`s issues, Jeb Bush talking about how much
money we spend on women`s health and ridiculous things that these other
candidates have said. So that`s what you`re seeing now, is that she`s
rallying to her strength. The endorsement yesterday of Senator Jeanne
Shaheen in New Hampshire, absolutely no surprise. Jeanne Shaheen and her
husband, who is a state party chairman, have long been Clinton supporters.
So what they`re trying to do really is rally the troops in New Hampshire,
to cut into the inroads that are seen being made by Bernie Sanders.

CAPEHART: Do you know what`s interesting here? Eight years ago, during the
2008 campaign, Hillary Clinton running as a woman running for president was
not at the forefront of her campaign. She ran away from it.

I want to play a sound bite of one of -- something Hillary Clinton said and
I`ll get your reaction on the other side.


CLINTON: Where everyone has a shot at achieving their dreams and living up
to their potential. And, yes, where a father can say to his daughter, you
can be anything you want, even president of the United States of America.


CAPEHART: And so we talked about Jeb Bush talking about taking away
funding from women`s programs and you have Donald Trump in his many sort of
anti-woman things that he has said and proposals that he has. How do you
compete with that? Go ahead.

HAYWORTH: Respectfully, let`s get away from the noise and get down to the
fundamentals, in particularly in these last several years of -- I would
contend nonrecovery, at the very least insufficient recovery from a
terrible economic blow several years ago, which is attributable, actually,
at its root to bad government policy. But we have women in this country
who are trying to put food on the table, take care of their children, take
care of their families, who are disproportionately disadvantaged by bad
policies that originate from Hillary Clinton and her party. She supports
policies that have massively transferred wealth -- let me finish for just a

SWEET: I`m sorry.

CAPEHART: Finish real quick, then we`ve got to go.

HAYWORTH: From American families, from American women to the powerful and
the advantaged through government programs like raising health insurance

SWEET: Oh, come on.

HAYWORTH: The cost of mortgages, the cost of college education, the value
of savings has gone down. We are punishing the middle class and working
people with bad policies.


CAPEHART: And now the counterpoint.

SWEET: The counterpoint is Mitt Romney tried mightily last time around to
make this an economic issue to get women voters. It did not work. You
cannot ignore Republican stance on a variety of other issues, including
abortion, when you talk about looking for women`s votes and looking for
someone who is seen as a champion. Not just Donald Trump, who cherishes
women, OK. You`re looking for somebody who is a champion of everything,
the whole package of things out there. Not just the economic proposals.

HAYWORTH: But if you don`t have economic security, you can`t take care of
yourself and your family.


SWEET: Everybody talks about that. Let`s not use this as a segue into the
broader issue of economic policy.


SWEET: It has proven not to win women voters if you just focus on that.

CAPEHART: That`s going to have to be the last word on this piece. We can
talk about it more during the break. Still ahead, taking on one Donald
Trump. Why one radio host is defending his interview with the frontrunner.
But first, the latest on the search for the person who shot and killed a
police officer in Illinois. That`s next, stay with us.


CAPEHART: Authorities say they have new clues in the search for the person
or persons who killed an Illinois police officer last week. Investigators
call the new evidence significant. NBC`s Kristen Dahlgren has the latest.


KRISTEN DAHLGREN, NBC: As investigators scour the scene of Tuesday`s
deadly shooting, a discovery. Something officials now think could help
lead them to whoever killed Lieutenant Charles Joe Gliniewicz right after
he made this call about three suspicious individuals near Fox Lake,

17 minutes later, officers found Gliniewicz shot to death. Officials won`t
say what their newest evidence is, aside from calling it, quote,
significant. But for days, they have been combing through the thick brush
and marshes, and earlier, they confirmed the officer`s gun was recovered at
the scene.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All I can tell you is it was found near the
lieutenant`s remains. I can`t reveal how many times it was fired.

DAHLGREN: FBI technicians are also now piecing together several videos
from intersections and area homes. They say the images they`re seeing
match up with the description offered by Gliniewicz. Two white men and one

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I believe that the subjects are dangerous. And I
reiterate this, they murdered a police officer, so they are capable of
doing anything.

DAHLGREN: The sheriff`s office said Saturday they believe they`re getting
closer to identifying someone.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Historically, what we`ve found is it`s still localized,
and that`s what we`re hoping for, that they`re still within this area,
within our reach.


CAPEHART: That was NBC`s Kristen Dahlgren reporting.

Turning now to the weather, Labor Day weekend may be the unofficial end of
summer, but it feels like summer is far from over for much of the country.
Meteorologist Veronica Johnson joins us now.

VERONICA JOHNSON, NBC: That`s right. What does that mean, Jonathan? It
means summer heat, right, and also means some summer storms. Take a look.
The latest satellite and radar showing clouds and where it`s raining.
While things may be quieting down over the south, they`re still firing here
in the Midwest across Wisconsin and Minnesota. That is where there will be
a risk of severe weather today with hail, high winds, and even the
possibility of river flooding right along the weather front that`s driving
eastward. That will be the main focus really for the weather across the
country for the next 24, 48 hours. Behind that front, big cool-down as
temperatures drop to the 70s.

Here is a look at the weather today. Nice for the eastern third of the
country. The north central again stormy. We`ll have temperatures topping
out in the mid 80s in D.C., around Atlanta. Even in New York. 84 degrees
today. It`s been awfully pleasant. Midsection part of the country will be
warming up to around 96, 100 degrees. San Antone tomorrow, 97 in Oklahoma
City, with more storms, Chicago to St. Louis. But again, even the east
this time, Labor Day itself will start warming up. Best location, of
course, always the beach, Jonathan.

CAPEHART: Pity neither of us will be there. Meteorologist Veronica
Johnson, thank for joining us.

Still ahead, we have brand new poll numbers coming up on the Democratic and
Republican races for president. As Donald Trump would say, this is huge!
That is ahead.

But first new signs that Joe Biden might be nearing a decision. Stay with


CAPEHART: Vice President Joe Biden this week finally addressed the
question that has been looming over the Democratic race for much of the
summer. Will he join the race for president?


BIDEN: The most relevant factor in my decision is whether my family and I
have the emotional energy to run. If I can reach that conclusion, that we
can do it, in a fashion that would still make it viable, I would not
hesitate to do it. But I have to be honest with you and everyone who has
come to me, I can`t look you straight in the eye and say now I know I can
do that. That is as honest as I can be.


CAPEHART: Whether or not he ultimately decides to run, behind the scenes
the vice president has been acting like a candidate, doing the things one
needs to do in order to launch a national campaign. And that includes the
meeting he held last month with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.
Here is what she had to say about Biden when asked about that meeting.


SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN, D-MASS.: We talked about the direction this country
has been going in. We talked about the capture of this country by those
who have got money and power. It was a good, long, rambly policy

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Was there any talk with the vice president of a joint
ticket, even jokingly?

WARREN: It was a long conversation.




CAPEHART: To continue, okay. I mean, come on now. That response -- every
time I see it like what`s this about?

JOHNSON: No matter what she says, this does not sound like -- first off,
this sounds like a father in mourning. He does not sound like a man who is
planning on running for president.

CAPEHART: Especially in that last - the clip-


JOHNSON: I don`t think this is a decision he has to make right now.

SWEET: He doesn`t have to. I think the only real deadlines in this are
when the individual states filing deadlines start. And it`s sooner than
later. Even though the primaries might not take place next year, I think
they start rolling out in either late October or November. So even if he
missed the first Democratic debate in October.

CAPEHART: Which is in October.

SWEET: Not the end of it. Neither he nor Clinton need name ID. Neither
he nor Clinton need to feel the urge to give platform to the other


SWEET: So he has some more time here.

HAYWORTH: I`m among professionals here. If I may make a prediction, I
think Vice President Biden will only run if Elizabeth Warren would consent
to be the vice presidential candidate. Otherwise, what policy contrast
does he offer versus Hillary Clinton?

SWEET: He might not go that way. I think he would take another route and
not emphasize their differences. I don`t think he wants, from what I`ve
heard, if he did this, he doesn`t want to be the one to take her down, so
to speak, he wants to prevail--


JOHNSON: -- practical issue here. He will only enter this race if after
all these sort of honeycomb hideout conversations he`s having with people,
if someone gives him not one, but two or three clear paths to beat Hillary
Clinton. That`s why he hasn`t done it. He doesn`t want to do this just
for entertainment sake. He wants to actually win. And clearly no one has
told him yet there`s a pathway in which he can beat her.

CAPEHART: Can we talk about Nan`s assertion here, which I think is
interesting, that Vice President Biden wouldn`t get into the race without
Senator Warren assenting to being on the ticket? What do we make of a
Warren/Biden ticket?

SWEET: First of all, I respectfully disagree that there has to be a deal
ahead of time. I think Senator Warren is too smart to do that now. I just
don`t think she would.


HAYWORTH: She`s being tantalizingly coy.


SWEET: I haven`t seen her tease and flirt like this before. So that
strikes me. Maybe I don`t know her well enough. It struck me as out of
character. Jonathan, to your point, what is useful for Biden now is to be
seen with Warren because what you have to do is see if it`s possible to
tamp down the Bernie Sanders surge right now, which appeals to the
populist, progressive wing of the Democratic party.

HAYWORTH: And who else does that? Elizabeth Warren.

CAPEHART: There are a lot of people on my Twitter feed, on Facebook, who
are constantly complaining, why isn`t anybody talking about Bernie Sanders?
So we`ve already talked about, how the vice president wouldn`t be able to
show any contrast with Hillary Clinton, but how does he do that with Bernie
Sanders, who has thousands upon thousands of people showing up at his

JOHNSON: Well, it`s not the sexiest thing to say, but he can always just
say electability. Bernie Sanders is not going to win a presidency, let
alone a nomination, if he cannot improve his numbers with Latinos and
African-Americans. People forget. Let`s say Hillary Clinton ends up
winning Iowa and Bernie Sanders ends up winning in New Hampshire. Bernie
Sanders does not win in South Carolina. Where a large part of the primary
voters are African-American. He`s not winning that. Bernie Sanders is not
a real competitor unless he can expand the base that he appeals to.

HAYWORTH: This is an artifact -- we have similar artifacts on the
Republican side -- of the early primary states being so attended to and
emphasized. Jason`s exactly right.

CAPEHART: Last word, Lynn.

SWEET: If we`re talking about Biden, though, I don`t think Bernie Sanders
is a factor. I think he has to feel in his heart and his head that there`s
a way to win.


Still ahead, is Bernie Sanders turning up the heat on Hillary Clinton in
the early voting states? We`ll have newly released NBC News polling at the
top of the hour. And next, the conservative radio host who stumped Trump
isn`t done with him yet. Stay with us.


CAPEHART: There`s a lot going on this morning. Let`s get caught up with
some of the other headlines making news with today`s panel. So sort of a
double feature here, Donald Trump double feature. The first one involving
Hugh Hewitt. Hewitt wrote an op-ed in Politico, I didn`t ask Trump gotcha
questions. It`s the duty of journalists to make presidential candidates
answer tough questions, especially on national security. Again, in that
interview, Hugh Hewitt said I`m going to ask you commander in chief
questions, and that was after he said this is your sixth time on the show.
So Trump wasn`t a newbie to that show.

JOHNSON: No, no. Didn`t we have this last time with Herman Cain, who said
I don`t have to know what beki-beki stan is?


JOHNSON: No, that`s part of your job. You`re supposed to actually know
these things.

SWEET: It is. I`ll grant you, though, I heard the audio. It was hard to
distinguish the word Kurd from Quds. But having said that, if he knew who
both groups were instead of just saying, assuming it was the Kurds, he
betrayed that.

HAYWORTH: Carly Fiorina was able to answer it.

SWEET: And she did. She was totally familiar with the situation. Give
her that. Okay.

And then you can`t -- I think Trump`s fascination that Trump has with
himself and his ability to take down interviewers may fade. I think it
wouldn`t hurt him to study up.

CAPEHART: Well, that`s what -- and, you know, as Nan was saying, because
Carly Fiorina is her candidate - she is a volunteer-


HAYWORTH: I`m speaking for myself in this.

CAPEHART: I will speak for -- I listened to that interview, and Carly
Fiorina showed once again that not only is she on top of the issues, she`s
incredibly disciplined. Incredibly disciplined. You have got to move on
to one more thing involving Donald Trump. I really, so Donald Trump
tweeted yesterday Meghan McCain was terrible on "The Five" yesterday, angry
and obnoxious, she will never make it on TV Fox News. Can do so much

SWEET: I`m so sorry. Let me answer the question I wanted you to ask.

CAPEHART: Go ahead. It`s perfect.

SWEET: Is Donald Trump -- if you`re listening, give us a call or give me a
call. I do want to know. Are you running to run a TV network and hire
people who should be on-air talent, or are you running to be the president
of the United States? Leave Meghan McCain alone. We`ve got bigger

JOHNSON: I`m wondering who has his Twitter feed? You`re trying to run a
multimillion dollar company and run for president? He always has time for
these obnoxious tweets, and it makes no sense. It`s unseemly for somebody
running for president.

CAPEHART: I want to get this one more thing in here. An op-ed in the "New
York Post" from former mayor Rudy Giuliani. He writes de Blasio`s
progressivism created city`s homeless crisis. He says that - he calls for
some tough love. Quote, a city with homeless on its streets is a city that
has no love of its people. That is pretty hard.

HAYWORTH: Mayor Giuliani is right in that the mayor has a civic duty to
enhance the conditions that are conducive to helping the homeless who are
capable of working find work, find housing, that they can afford. We need
a vibrant economy to do that, and a certain amount of public discipline and
example. We don`t have that under Mayor de Blasio.


SWEET: I have my hands full just following Mayor Rahm Emanuel.


JOHNSON: You want to fix the homeless problem, there`s a guy who ran, you
know, the rent is too darn high.


JOHNSON: Exactly, exactly. It`s like you can`t fix homelessness if people
don`t have houses they can move into. That`s an issue in any major city.

CAPEHART: Also, homelessness is also a whole lot more than someone who
doesn`t have keys, who has lost their keys, who can`t afford an apartment.
There`s a lot more usually going on there.

But still, ahead a full hour of news and politics coming up, including
brand new NBC polling numbers at the top of the hour. You`ll want to see
these. Stay with us.


CAPEHART: Are Hillary Clinton`s poll numbers in freefall?

Thanks for staying with us. Is Bernie Sanders overtaking Hillary Clinton
in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination? Brand new poll
results from NBC News in a few minutes.

Also the Kentucky county clerk who refused to give marriage licenses to
same-sex couples is spending her fourth day in jail. It`s an issue that
has galvanized the country. Plus, it`s been a week of presidential firsts
for President Obama. The details on that are ahead. We begin this hour
with new developments in Europe`s migrant crisis. More than 7,000 asylum
seekers arrived in Germany yesterday to applause, cheers, gifts and food.
They are the first of thousands, many of them fleeing Syria`s long civil
war. NBC`s chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel.

RICHARD ENGEL, NBC: Jonathan, Hungary has relaxed some of its travel
restrictions that it had imposed on migrants and refugees, allowing them to
more easily transit through this country. They are once again coming to
this train station in Budapest. They are allowed now to get onto the
trains. Most are heading toward the Austrian border. And from there
through Austria into Germany. They are still coming thousands a day into
Hungary. Germany said it received 100,000 just last month. So this is a
massive crisis. European officials generally have decided that the
solution is to try to distribute the migrants and refugees among their
nations. The Vatican said it would receive two migrant families, and the
pope encouraged every Christian parish in Europe as a sign of good faith to
accept one family. But European officials also acknowledge that this is
not a long-term solution, they cannot simply absorb all the people fleeing
war zones in the Middle East and redistribute them around Europe. There
needs to be a comprehensive solution, political solutions, attempts to
resolve the conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan. All of these
failed and failing states in the Muslim world where people have decided
there is no hope at home and they have to seek better places, where they
can start a future with their families. Most people have decided the only
place they can do that is the wealthier countries in Europe. Jonathan?

CAPEHART: Richard Engel, thank you so much.

We turn now to brand new polling numbers from NBC News and Marist College,
released at the top of this hour, that show Bernie Sanders overtaking
Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire,
and closing in on her in Iowa.

Let`s take a look at New Hampshire first. 49 percent of likely Democratic
voters surveyed say they are voting for Bernie Sanders, giving him a nine-
point lead over Hillary Clinton at 38 percent. The rest of the field is in
low single digits.

Now, take a look at how these numbers compare to July, the last time NBC
News and Marist conducted a poll in New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton down
nine points in the Granite State in the last two months. Sanders gaining
15 points. Here are the results if Joe Biden is in the picture. With Joe
Biden in the race, Bernie Sanders still holds the lead. 41 percent saying
Sanders would get their vote, 32 percent saying they would support Clinton.
And Joe Biden pulling support near equally from Hillary Clinton and Bernie
Sanders, finishing with 16 percent. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton maintains
her lead in Iowa, carrying 48 percent of support. Bernie Sanders with 37.
Hillary`s lead is down 29 points since July, Clinton falling 7 points and
Sanders gaining 11. With Joe Biden in the race, he pulls ten points
equally from Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Clinton is still in the
lead with 38 percent, Sanders at 27 and Biden at 20. Let`s bring in Mark
Murray, senior political editor at NBC News for the takeaway here for
Hillary Clinton, Mark, thanks for being here. What are we seeing in these

MARK MURRAY, NBC NEWS: Jonathan, I think you`re seeing the toll the last
two months has taken on Hillary Clinton, particularly regarding the e-mail
story. Some of the numbers are showing that in Iowa, her favorability
rating went from 74 percent in July to 67 percent in this most recent poll,
that is a drop of seven points. And it shows you that even among
Democrats, her numbers are starting to lag a little bit. I think you can
end up looking at just the dominant story that`s followed Hillary Clinton
over the last two months that`s been about her e-mails or a former IT
staffer pleading the Fifth. You look at the other issue, the other
Democrat in the field, it`s excitement about Bernie Sanders` crowds or you
end up having the speculation of Joe Biden entering the race.

But beyond emails, I`d actually argue there`s one other explanation of
what`s going on here. Is that establishment candidates, either on the
Democratic or Republican side, are having a very difficult time. I know
we`re going to get to the Republican numbers. But it`s worth noting that
in Iowa, you add up Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, the three
Republican outsiders who have never held elected office before, and that
gets you to 56 percent of the vote in Iowa. And so what I do think is that
the establishment candidates are having a very, very tough time right now.
The outsiders are doing really well.

One other final point, Jonathan. It`s worth noting that August and
September polling doesn`t always end up reflecting what is going to end up
happening in Iowa and New Hampshire contest. We have a very long way to
go. It was back in 2003 at this time Howard Dean was the star of the
Democratic party, and just four years ago it was Michele Bachmann and Rick
Perry dominating the Republican conversation in that race. Things can
certainly change.

CAPEHART: Mark, you brought it up. Talk more about what`s happening on
the Republican side of the race.

MURRAY: Yes. Donald Trump is leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire,
Jonathan. In Iowa he is ahead by seven points over Ben Carson, 29 percent
to 22 percent. But again, you add up those two percentages and you get to
51 percent. Then you have to go all the way down and see Jeb Bush at 6
percent. Again, another sign that the establishment just isn`t having a
very good time and didn`t have a very good summer. And then in the race
for New Hampshire, Jonathan, you end up having Donald Trump once again, he
is at 28 percent among Republicans in New Hampshire. Second place. It`s
interesting. Ohio Governor John Kasich, who is at 12 percent. Couple of
other things worth noting, look at the percentages for Jeb Bush, Marco
Rubio and Scott Walker in these Iowa and in New Hampshire. All in the mid
to low single digits, and I`d just emphasize one more time, all the people
we thought were going to be the big front-runners in this race -- they
might still very well be once we get to January and February, had a very
rough summer.

CAPEHART: Yeah. That is definitely true. Mark, stay with me. Let`s
bring in this morning`s panel. Political science professor Jason Johnson,
Lynn Sweet with the Chicago Sun Times, and former Republican Congresswoman
Nan Hayworth, who is also working as a New York volunteer co-chair for
Carly Fiorina super PAC. Okay. What do we think about these numbers? And
of course, we`re talking about on the Democratic side.

SWEET: Well, I think Mark Murray -- hi, Mark. The shrinking of these
numbers is I think -- who disagrees? It`s the e-mails. What else do you
hear about in the campaign right now? It`s very hard for them to get above
it. I know they`re trying. And it`s only going to get a little worse,
again, when Congress comes back.


SWEET: And there`s even more law makers to put a spotlight on it. A lot
of smart people are working in Brooklyn. They have to -- I think figuring
out a way to address this, but here is what we know about Hillary Clinton.
She has survived these episodes where people say oh, my God, freefall and
all that. Then she climbs back out. If I may, I want to --

CAPEHART: We`ll hear from Jason.

SWEET: The person who said it the best in asking the question, Andrea
Mitchell with her interview with Hillary Clinton on Friday said, you lost,
you felt it slipping away in `08. Do you feel you might have it slip away
again? And Hillary Clinton said Andrea, I don`t see it like that. I think
that spoke a lot.

JOHNSON: The number I look at, Iowa in particular -- it`s a caucus.

CAPEHART: People sit in living rooms and hash this out.

JOHNSON: Exactly. Empty school gyms, church basements, stuff like that.
It`s the undecideds. Iowa has a tendency to break late. As long as you`ve
got 7 to 9 percent of the people who are undecided, I always think in the
case of somebody like Hillary Clinton, undecideds tend to break for the
more well-known person and they tend to break for the incumbent. What
looks like a seven or ten percent lead she`s got right now could actually
jump up to 15 by the time we get there if three-quarters of those
undecideds end up breaking for her. I wouldn`t be that worried if I were
in the Clinton campaign yet.

CAPEHART: If I were in the Clinton campaign, though, can we not forget the
history from 2008? She lost Iowa.

HAYWORTH: Exactly. And she lost the nomination.

JOHNSON: Bernie is not Barack Obama. Under any circumstances. He doesn`t
have that charm, doesn`t have that grace, and remember, she still got the
South Carolina firewall.

HAYWORTH: You have Biden and Warren waiting in the wings to rescue things.
And I still--

CAPEHART: You still think it`s a Biden/Warren ticket?

HAYWORTH: Because there is -- a recent poll of voters asking what`s the
first thing that comes to mind? As you know, when you think of Hillary
Clinton. Dishonest.


HAYWORTH: Untrustworthy, liar. There is this -- you see it on the
Republican side, too. In a sense, I think it`s almost -- there is a
certain carryover effect from Hillary Clinton`s bad image toward the
Republicans` so-called professional politicians as well. Which is why you
see Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina gaining such prominence,
because there is this sense that she represents a cynical, manipulative,
actually power-grabbing --

CAPEHART: That`s a very intense, negative, cynical view of Secretary

HAYWORTH: The e-mail controversy supports that.

CAPEHART: Okay. But these numbers, do they encourage or discourage Vice
President Biden, do you think, in his factoring whether he`s going to run?

HAYWORTH: I still think it`s too soon to tell. There are many twists and
turns to this. I`m sure no one in the Clinton campaign is pleased with
this, because all this talk about Biden is a distraction from what she was
trying to do. The only plus I could see -- maybe it isn`t a big one. The
more talk about Biden, it might drown out the e-mails.

JOHNSON: If I`m Biden, this doesn`t really change anything for me. I take
half from Hillary, take half from Bernie Sanders. That still doesn`t give
me a pathway to victory. If I were him, I`m still trying to work out my
own numbers.

CAPEHART: There is something in the "New York Times" today in a story
about Hillary Clinton`s contingency plan if she loses Iowa or New
Hampshire. Like I said before, she lost Iowa in 2008. She won New
Hamsphire in 2008. The fact that she`s now losing in the polls to Bernie
Sanders I think is significant. "New York Times" writes, Hillary Clinton`s
presidential campaign is methodically building a political firewall across
the South in hopes of effectively locking up the Democratic nomination in
March regardless of any early setbacks in the Iowa caucuses and the New
Hampshire primary. Do we have this map? "New York Times" reporting the
Clinton campaign targeting Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee,
Texas, Virginia.


CAPEHART: This gets to the question, how do things look for Bernie
Sanders? He`s on fire in New Hampshire, he is gaining ground in Iowa. Once
you get down to those states I just read off, what happens to him?

JOHNSON: Jonathan, look at those demographics. He`s just not going to win
down there.

SWEET: I`m not a naysayer. Let`s give Bernie a chance, but let`s remember
also that the game is delegates. Hillary Clinton knows how to count. She
has Barack Obama`s lawyer, who was the delegate counter. The campaign did
put out, was it a week ago, they already have a big running start with the
super delegates from the Democratic Party.

CAPEHART: Mark Murray, I haven`t forgotten that you were there. I`m going
to give you the last word. Any final thoughts from you, Mark?

MURRAY: We focus so much on Hillary Clinton and the Democrats, and
certainly some of those numbers are very jaw dropping. Again, I would just
kind of look at where Jeb Bush and Scott Walker were in our July NBC Marist
poll in Iowa and New Hampshire. They were in double digits. You had Jeb
Bush leading in New Hampshire. You ended up having, you had Scott Walker
leading in Iowa. And all of a sudden, those folks are now in single
digits. It`s just worth reminding, that we focus a lot on Hillary Clinton.
Yes, she`s had a very tough summer. You can argue that Jeb Bush and Scott
Walker have had even a more brutal summer than she has had.

CAPEHART: I am with you on that. NBC News Mark Murray, thanks for being
here today.

MURRAY: Thank you.

CAPEHART: Still ahead, the special visitor jailed Kentucky clerk Kim Davis
is expecting this week.

And next, the latest on the battle between Jeb Bush and Stephen Colbert.



TRUMP: Do you know what`s happening to Jeb`s crowd, as you know, right
down the street? They`re sleeping. They`re sleeping now.


CAPEHART: That was Donald Trump mocking Jeb Bush a few weeks ago. While
that comment seemed like hyperbole, check out what happened this past
Thursday in a Jeb Bush hall in New Hampshire. Keep your eye on the woman
in the right, see her there in the baseball cap? It appears she is nodding
off as the former Florida governor is speaking. The Bush campaign
explained that the woman, Tara, is a working mom, who woke up at 4 in the
morning after working a 12-hour shift, just to attend that town hall. As
we just discussed in the previous segment, Jeb Bush finishing a distant
fourth in New Hampshire in the newest poll from NBC News. What many see as
a must-win state for the former Florida governor. Add it up, and it`s been
another bad week for Jeb Bush. A week in which the campaign announced a
fund-raising contest where contributors could win tickets to see Jeb Bush
appear on the first episode of the "Late Show" with Stephen Colbert this
Tuesday. The problem? No one ran that idea by Colbert or his staff.


STEPHEN COLBERT: Two can play at this contest, sir. So tonight, today, or
whenever you`re watching this, I am launching my own Jeb Bush on the
Stephen Colbert Late Show raffle. The lucky winner will also be invited to
the premiere of the Late Show, plus they will get to submit one non-obscene
question I will ask Governor Bush on their behalf. For example, one
question might be, don`t you wish you had consulted Stephen before
launching your contest?


CAPEHART: Don`t you wish?

Joining the panel is Lola Ogunnaike, host of "Arise 360," Lynn Sweet and
Jason Johnson are still here. Before I ask you the question, Lola, I want
to play Bush`s response to Colbert`s response. Take a look.



BUSH: Hey, Stephen, I`m at the Philadelphia airport. I thought the host
was Amy Schumer. I totally blew it. But since it`s you, we`re lowering
our contest fee to $1. And I`ll enter yours with a donation to the Yellow
Ribbon Fund.


CAPEHART: It`s like Joseph A. Bank, buy one, get five free. Is that too
little too late to salvage the situation for Jeb Bush?

OGUNNAIKE: You know, Jeb Bush has to reinvent himself as a person with a
personality. The problem is that Trump has dubbed him low energy and it
has stuck. People believe that. In a way, I think he has played this
right. He has shown he is able to poke fun at himself, he actually knows
who Amy Schumer is. She would probably loathe everything that he stands
for and he would probably despise everything she jokes about, but that
doesn`t matter. It`s a chance for him to prove to the world that he isn`t
the robotic board (ph). And last week on the show, I said he looks like
he`s being marched to the guillotine. He does not look like he`s having
fun with his presidential campaign at all. It`s a way to show the world
that he is indeed presidential, but also accessible and he has personality.

JOHNSON: Look, if you`re the butt of somebody else`s joke, I don`t know
that that shows so much personality.


OGUNNAIKE: It does show that you can take a joke, though.

JOHNSON: He can take it. Just like Marco Rubio can take it with the whole
drinking thing and everything else like that

But I think ultimately, Jeb needs to realize that he has been doing this
for a while now, and he keeps makes these mistakes. Like, this is a rookie
mistake. You should have your staff --


OGUNNAIKE: I don`t think it`s a mistake, because if you ran it by Stephen
Colbert`s people, they would have said no.


JOHNSON: Well, there is that.

OGUNNAIKE: The point is to not run it by them, do it anyway, hope it gets
buzz, hope people, like all of us esteemed folks are talking about it. So
it worked.



SWEET: And it`s going to have more people. It`s good for both of them, it
jazzes up everybody. I`m excited about the Colbert debut this week. I
just saw the big theater marquee when coming here on it. But here is the
thing about Jeb Bush. I think sometimes the tortoise gets to the finish
line. Everyone is naysaying him. I think if he could get his schtick into
the self-deprecating humor thing and a way to come back to the locker room
bully, maybe, just maybe.

OGUNNAIKE: That`s a slow tortoise.


SWEET: Slow but steady.

CAPEHART: Let`s put up those Jeb Bush poll numbers we`ve been talking
about the last segment. And I mentioned, where is Jeb?


JOHNSON: Where is Waldo polling?


CAPEHART: Oh, he`s third, in my glasses it looked like Lindsey Graham. I
am so sorry. Jeb Bush is right there at 6 percent.

OGUNNAIKE: Oh, there he is.

CAPEHART: Can this situation that he has going on there with Stephen
Colbert, can a late-night appearance help him?

SWEET: Yes, absolutely.

CAPEHART: How can it help him if we`re talking about a guy who is either
low energy or looks like he`s being marched to the guillotine every time a
microphone is put in front of him?

OGUNNAIKE: Because if he shows up there with a winning personality, and
all of a sudden he reinvents himself as Jeb 2.0, I am energetic, I am fun.
If he takes a page from Bill Clinton and actually plays the saxophone, like
Bill Clinton did on "Arsenio Hall," that was a game changer for him. These
appearances are actually important if they are played correctly. Now, if
he shows up and he is as boring as he has been on the campaign trail, then
I think it will be a nail in the coffin. But if he shows up and he has
reinvented himself, it could be a win, a real win.

SWEET: It looks like you`ve warned him.

OGUNNAIKE: I warned him. Bring your A game, honey.

JOHNSON: It`s not just low energy. That same poll that said Hillary
Clinton is dishonest, people think that Jeb Bush is also weak. He needs to
learn how to come back stronger from these sorts of things.

CAPEHART: You hear that, Jeb Bush? Thank you, Lola Ogunnaike, with Arise
360. Thanks very much for coming on this morning.

Still ahead, what issue will decide the presidential election? A surprising
look at what drives voters at the polls.

But first, jailed Kentucky clerk Kim Davis gets ready for a high profile
visitor. That is next. Stay with us.


CAPEHART: This is the fourth day that a Kentucky county clerk will spend
in jail for refusing to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Kim
Davis supporters held a rally outside the jail yesterday and prayed for
her, and former Arkansas Governor and current GOP presidential candidate
Mike Huckabee announced plans to meet with Davis on Tuesday. MSNBC`s Sarah
Daloff is live in Grayson, Kentucky.

SARAH DALLOF, MSNBC: Hi, Jonathan. Relatively quiet morning here where
outside the Clark County detention center, where Kim Davis is waking up to
her third morning in jail. It is a sharp contrast to yesterday morning,
when hundreds gathered on the lawn in support of Davis, chanting her name,
and offering prayers for her release. Her husband will be visiting her in
jail later today. He has been able to speak with her on the phone and says
she`s doing well, she has been reading her Bible to pass the time. She`s
expecting an even more high-profiled visitor this coming week, Mike
Huckabee, the presidential GOP nominee hopeful, will be stopping by to
visit her in person in the jail on Tuesday, as well as hold a rally in her
support. All of this comes just days after Davis` deputy clerks began
issuing marriage licenses to happy same-sex couples who emerged from the
office to cheers from their supporters. They have 30 days now to get
married. I spoke with one of the couples yesterday. They say they`re
planning a relatively low-key affair, a ceremony followed by a party with a
few friends and family. A low key affair, especially after such a high-
profile fight to obtain that marriage license, Jonathan. Back to you.

CAPEHART: Sarah Dallof in Grayson, Kentucky. Thank you so much.

Still ahead, will the 2016 election be decided at the ballot box or the gas
pump? New analysis may surprise you.

And next, President Obama racks up even more presidential firsts in Alaska
this week. Stay with us.



OBAMA: Hi, everybody. We`re at Kanai Fjords (ph) national glacier park.
Where you have warming taking place twice as fast here in Alaska as it is
in the bottom 48 states, that is melting glaciers and blocks of ice that
are raising sea levels, and you start getting an accelerated pace of
climate change overall. So, we`ve got to do something about it. Good news
is we can if we take some smart steps now.


CAPEHART: As you might have noticed, the videographer in that clip was
none other than President Obama using his own selfie stick to document
climate change in Alaska on Wednesday. Later that day, he became the first
sitting president ever to visit the Arctic circle. And he appeared to have
a wonderful time while performing a native Alaskan dance with school
children. The president also became the first Instagrammer in chief.
Official White House photographer Pete Souza joking on Twitter, check out
my new competition on this Alaska trip. It`s the latest in a string of
historic firsts for the president in recent months. This summer, he became
the first sitting president to visit Kenya and Ethiopia, as well as the
first to visit a federal prison. So what do all these presidential firsts
mean for his last year and a half in office? We`re going to talk about it
right now. Does it mean, he`s like, hey, I don`t have to run for election
again? I`m going to have fun in my last remaining years.

JOHNSON: He has a year and a half to go, Jonathan. He probably has got a
bucket list. You know, he released his --

CAPEHART: We know he has a bucket list. From the White House
correspondents` dinner. Go on.

JOHNSON: I think that`s what this is. Everything he is doing, like any
skilled politician, it`s always connected to policy. He goes to Alaska, he
uses Instagram, he uses the selfie stick. Let`s also talk about global
warming. I think he will find a way to do all these fun things that will
connect him to millennials and connect him to voters, but also it`s part of

SWEET: This is the legacy building chapter. Just for our viewers who
don`t know, there`s an architectural competition that was launched a few
days ago for the Obama library. And the first submissions are due
September 16th. So they are thinking, Obama and his advisers, of a post
presidency, which will include a chapter to be continued on climate change.
You know, that selfie stick will probably end up being an exhibit
someplace. I think you`re looking at some very definite things coming out
right now. Put it this way in the file folder of things that will be
unfinished even in a year and a half. And that`s the beginning of the next
chapter is what you`re seeing, as well as what he`s trying to get done
while he is in office.

HAYWORTH: Personally, I would welcome the president`s taking some really
significant steps toward making his legacy one. He is historic in so many
ways. I`ve got to say he has the greatest deadpan humor since Calvin

CAPEHART: Drier than the driest martini.

HAYWORTH: Incredibly funny guy. The problem is that right now the
president is leaving a legacy of despair that he can correct by --

CAPEHART: Nan, really.

HAYWORTH: Well, I would contend to you that with the best of intentions,
but the president has instituted policies that empower those who are
connected, who are powerful. The health insurance costs in this country --


CAPEHART: Instituted policies that helped the country out of the deepest
economic crisis.


SWEET: -- unemployment number that came out this Friday was?


HAYWORTH: Those are great intentions, but the actual employment rate of
the labor force participation rate is the lowest in 38 years.

SWEET: No, no, no.

HAYWORTH: That`s a fact. That`s a fact.

SWEET: I`ve heard this. Why don`t we stick to what we`re talking about,
which is legacy?

HAYWORTH: But this is his legacy.

CAPEHART: Actually, no. That`s just incorrect.


SWEET: You said it once, and I think there`s a meaty response to that that
could eat up all the time of this show.

CAPEHART: Which we do not have.

SWEET: Right.

HAYWORTH: That`s why we`re here.

SWEET: Frankly, I think -- I just think that when you use a word, it`s
like a taunt. And if you want to have a meaty policy discussion, we could
do that. But I think for the moment, we have a meaty subject in front of
us, a legacy, whether you like it or not he is doing things --


JOHNSON: I think there`s a beautiful example here of -- this was at one
point pejorative and now it`s something probably Obama maybe sees that
inspires him. It used to be Obama is Jimmy Carter. At the end of his
term. Now we have seen, with that very sad announcement from Jimmy Carter,
a lot of people are realizing what an amazing post-presidency Jimmy Carter
had. I think that`s the other thing that President Obama is setting up.
He`s saying I`m going to talk about climate change, I am going to talk
about minority youth. He`s laying out this great post presidency.

HAYWORTH: There`s no question he wants to do these things.

CAPEHART: And he will. I mean, the thing we have to remember is that when
he is no longer president at noon January 20TH, 2017, he will be --

SWEET: Young.

CAPEHART: -- 55 years old. So we have a young -- we will have a young
former president, who will have, knock on wood, decades more time to work
on the issues that he cares about as a private citizen without having to
deal with the recalcitrant Congress.


SWEET: People may find interesting, he is using a professional management
consultant from Mckenzie and Company (ph) to put together a brain trust,
who is consulting with his foundation to help him and Mrs. Obama plan the
post presidency.


HAYWORTH: But he`s got 18 -- not quite 18 months anymore. He`s got 14
months to really make it count. He needs to empower working people and
middle class families.

JOHNSON: And he has. By all accounts, that`s what the public thinks.
That`s what he has done policy wise. We will have our 20 years to go back
and say whether Barack Obama was a great guy or bad guy. But as of right
now, he got reelected, his numbers are fairly positive.


HAYWORTH: That`s not his intentions. It`s the results of the actions.

JOHNSON: He`s going to be the Democratic party`s Ronald Reagan.


HAYWORTH: And we`re headed for a fiscal collapse.

CAPEHART: You went out on the limb there to call him the Democratic Ronald
Reagan. Actually, I am with you on that. I think it`s interesting he`s in
Alaska, trying to highlight climate change. And people sort of forget, one
of the big legacies he will have will be on the issue of climate change.


CAPEHART: Because I remember in the first term, probably in the first
year, realizing that Congress was not going to do anything, he empowered
the EPA, he did all sorts of things, raised the fuel --

SWEET: Mileage.

CAPEHART: Fuel standards. Now we`ve got highly fuel efficient cars out
there, we`re seeing all sorts of things on the climate change front that a
lot of people don`t know, appreciate, but they will once he`s no longer in

HAYWORTH: One way the public having voted on his policies is, let`s not
forget, we now have Republican majority in the House and the Senate, which
is another public comment on the way in which the president has approached
these things. Not his intentions, but his approach.

CAPEHART: And we have a Republican controlled House and Senate where both
leaders, Speaker Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell are now
doing battle with far right members of Congress who don`t really want to do

HAYWORTH: Congress needs to be far more effective, no question.


JOHNSON: The popularity of Congress is way below the popularity of the
president. Way below.


HAYWORTH: And Congress deserves to be unpopular. Congress deserves it.
The point is --

SWEET: Here is the point. Let me ask you this. Your party has in it
people who deny climate change. How do you explain that?

HAYWORTH: I`m not -- I`m a scientist myself, Lynn. I`m a doctor.

SWEET: How do you explain that?

HAYWORTH: I certainly believe in trusting the evidence.

SWEET: Do you believe in climate change?

HAYWORTH: Yes, I do. The question is, how do we attribute it -


HAYWORTH: -- how do we combat it effectively? I would submit to you that
one of the best ways is by empowering this greatest democracy in the world
to let its people work, thrive and prosper. Right now government is too

CAPEHART: And I look forward to Carly Fiorina stating her belief in
climate change at the next debate. Still ahead, new numbers that could
determine the presidential election. And they are not polls, all will be
made clear ahead.



UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Politics and the gas pump, how the presidential
election could hinge on gas prices at the pump.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Gas prices are a political problem heading into an
election year.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Gas prices are high, especially in the election year,
the president is going to be blamed.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you factoring gas prices into your vote in the



CAPEHART: It`s a time honored tradition for pundits to predict elections
based on gas prices. There`s a good reason for it. This week, the folks
at Moody`s have updated their election forecast to predict a landslide
victory for Democrats in 2016. 326 electoral votes for the Democratic
presidential nominee to 212 for the Republican. The reason they gave? Low
gas prices. And their prediction appears to be backed up by history.
Before the 2012 election, statistician Nate Silver crunched the numbers
from elections since World War II, and found that quote, "the relationship
goes in the direction that you might expect." Higher gas prices mean a
poorer performance for the incumbent party." But he added this caveat,
it`s fairly weak statistically. So will low gas prices lead Democrats to
hold on to the White House in 2016 or is this an oversimplification of
electoral process? Joining us now is Ben White, chief economic
correspondent for Politico. Thanks for coming in, Ben.

BEN WHITE, POLITICO: Thank you, Jonathan.

CAPEHART: Here is the question, are gas pries the make or break issue of

WHITE: They are not the make or break issue. But they do make a
difference. We`re obviously seeing very low gas prices right now.
Nationwide I think it`s $2.42 is the average price per gallon. That`s a $1
billion stimulus for the American people just over this weekend, that puts
$1 billion more in people`s pockets to spend. For the year, it`s something
like $100 billion. What that means is, it should translate into higher
consumer spending, a better economy, a faster moving economy. It hasn`t
done that yet. Part of the reason for that is people are saving the money
that they`re not spending on gas. It would help Democrats more and
probably will help them later this year into next year when those gas
savings start turning into spending and start turning into faster growth
and more jobs. It will help Democrats if they stay low. No, it`s not
going to decide the election. But it makes people feel better, which helps
the incumbent party.


Ben, let me play a clip, a short trip from 2012 when President Obama was
running for re-election. Take a listen.


OBAMA: Just from a political perspective, do you think the president of
the United States going into reelection wants gas prices to go up higher?



CAPEHART: Right. Even though it`s not the make or break issue of the 2016
campaign or any campaign, presidents are still aware of gas prices.

WHITE: It`s one of the things that voters notice the most. You drive by
it every day. You fill up your car to go to work, to go on vacation. It`s
a very clear indicator of people`s kind of quality of life. The money they
have to spend. They do not like seeing gas prices skyrocket. Ask Jimmy
Carter or anybody else who`s been in the White House when gas prices are
skyrocketing. I think it adds to the overall economic picture. If it`s
low and people are spending more and the economy is moving faster, as
Moody`s shows, that leads to a really favorable environment for Democrats.
But there is obviously plenty of other factors, and people don`t feel great
about the economy right now. Will gas pries help that some? It should over
the median to long term.

CAPEHART: Ben, you just mentioned other factors. What do you think
undecideds vote on, on a gut level?

WHITE: They vote on the direction of the economy. That`s my area,
economic behavior and how people decide. Obviously there are social issues
and other stuff that goes into it, but if you`re middle of the road,
undecided, can`t decide if you like the Democratic nominee or the
Republican, whoever it turns out to be, you may think, are my friends
getting jobs? Is stuff not costing me as much? Am I able to fill up my tank
and able to take a vacation? If all of these things you start to feel
better about it, that means you`re less likely to throw the incumbent party
out of the White House. That said it`s always hard for the incumbent party
to hold the White House for three terms in a row.


WHITE: Does that change that? I don`t know. But it`s certainly helpful
to an incumbent if the economy is moving faster and gas is cheap, and that
means Hillary Clinton or whoever gets the nomination would like to see this
trend continue.

CAPEHART: Jason, you`ve been nodding your head throughout Ben`s --

JOHNSON: I just want to ask Ben, from your perspective, what`s the cutoff
point? When does it last matter about how people feel about the economy for
the 2016 election?

WHITE: Right. That is a very good question. It matters September,
October. The numbers we see, how people feel at that point. So, you know,
people will look at the jobs numbers, the unemployment rate. But they
don`t necessarily look at those macro numbers. It`s all very personal, how
they feel and if their friends are getting jobs, if they feel like they`re
getting raises. That`s the other thing we didn`t talk about. That last
job, you saw a little bit of an increase in the rate of wage gains to .3
percent, better than the .2 percent we`ve been doing. For Democrats to
really get a lot of benefit, you want to see that continue. People are
getting raises in September, October, then they`ll feel good and that`s
really helpful to the Democrats. But it`s really a month or two out, and
it`s all about the trend. If the trend is higher wages, lower
unemployment, that`s good for Democrats. The absolute numbers don`t matter
as much.

CAPEHART: Ben, in terms of wage gains, you`re going to hear Democrats
talking about this, Republicans talking about this. What, if anything, can
a president do to increase wages? I know it`s a basic economic question,
but I`m basic like that.


WHITE: It`s hard. There`s no magic lever that they can push. Obviously,
you`ve seen President Obama talk about raising the minimum wage. You`ve
talked about him trying to increase education for, you know, community
college and getting more people the skills they need for the jobs that
exist right now. It`s limited, obviously, by his ability to get anything
through a Republican Congress. There`s obviously a lot of gridlock there.
There`s not a whole lot right now. Even more broadly, the president does
not have a magic bullet to increase wages. It really depends on the
direction of the economy and the amount of tightness in the labor force.
And I think what we`re seeing now is, as I think an earlier guest
mentioned, the labor force has shrunk. We don`t know exactly why that is.
Some of that is baby boom retirements, it`s not all because people are
discouraged. But as it gets tighter and we`re at 5.1 percent unemployment,
possibly heading below 5 percent, that will put pressure on wages and
they`ll start going up, and we should see that in the coming months. It`s
not going to be a result of anything that Washington does, it`s a natural
economic cycle. But everything is pointing toward wages moving in slowly
in the right direction. That trend should continue through 2016. That`s
good for Democrats.

CAPEHART: On the economic piece, from your lips to god`s ears for a lot of
people out there. Thanks to Ben White from Politico.

Up next, think your student athletes have what it takes to go pro? You may
want to think again. Ahead, stay with us.


CAPEHART: Ah, the panel, we`re having a lot of fun. There`s still a lot
more going on this morning, so let`s get caught up on some of the headlines
with today`s panel. From NPR, how likely is it really that your athletic
kid will turn pro? According to a recent poll from NPR, 26 percent of
parents whose children play high school sports hope their child will become
a professional athlete one day. Among families with household incomes of
less than $50,000 a year, the number is 39 percent. How likely is it that
your kid who is on the basketball team or the softball team or the soccer
team or the tennis team really is going to go pro?

SWEET: It is about as likely as a winning lottery ticket, which means you
could keep hope alive, as Reverend Jackson would say. But you can`t count
on it.

JOHNSON: It depends on the sport, to be perfectly honest with you.
Football, no. Football, as dangerous as it`s become, with CTE issues, it`s
not likely you`re going to make a living. Basketball and soccer are kind
of different because you have global markets. You can play basketball in
Argentina (ph), you can go play soccer in Europe.

HAYWORTH: Let your kids be kids. I know from experience, if they love it,
great, then encourage them. But don`t try to push them to be

CAPEHART: One of the things to worry about, I heard you guys talking about
this during the break the last hour, there are injuries.

JOHNSON: There is a horrible case in Louisiana, a young man, a 16-year-old
lost his life this week on a punt return in Louisiana. You had another
young man in Texas who is paralyzed from the neck down in Texas this week.
These are major concerns. This is something I think any parent would be
concerned about, putting their child in different kinds of sports. It`s
not going to happen if you`re playing basketball, but football, it`s
getting dangerous.

CAPEHART: Let`s get to another story, and this is from the department of
tone deafness. "New York Times," at Auschwitz, a summer precaution is a
grim reminder to some. You can see it there in the picture. Overhead
sprinklers made to provide relief from the summer heat at Auschwitz are
causing controversy. Some are upset because see, the showers were
reminiscent of the gas chambers made to look like showers at the camp
during World War II. Come on.

SWEET: I think one person complains, take it down. Don`t start up. Let
people, if anybody complains, it`s just insensitivity and it`s
indefensible. Sometimes if somebody says they`re offended, just say we`re
going to take it down. Just do it.

HAYWORTH: And it`s definitely more than one person. And this is
Auschwitz. We all know what went on there. Pass around cold bottles of


JOHNSON: I`m just saying, if I went to a black history museum, we`re going
to put bracelets on everybody so you stay together when you`re walking down
the hallway. I wouldn`t like that, either. If this is a museum to teach
people about sensitivity and history and what has happened, that should
always be taken into consideration.

CAPEHART: I think the late Whitney Houston would have something to say,
which I would not say, but it begins with hell.


CAPEHART: The next piece, Politico, Senator Ben Cardin says he`s a no on
the Iran deal. This is not an exercise in political courage, is it?

SWEET: Now that you know there are enough votes in the Senate to sustain
the presidential veto, it`s not. He was under heavy pressure back home
from a variety of pro forces. The news out this morning on that in the
House, so we know it`s going to play out, but Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who
is from Florida, I came to a forum with her, she announced this morning
that she is going to support the pact. So there has been a kerfluffle,
because there was a question would the woman who leads the DNC would be
against the president. Now we know the answer, she won`t be. There will
be a flood coming into Washington this week when Congress returns, even
though we know the outcome.

HAYWORTH: Interesting to see what Blumenthal does in Connecticut.

CAPEHART: Lynn Sweet, always reporting. Thanks very much to today`s
panel. Jason Johnson, Lynn Sweet, and former Congresswoman Nan Hayworth.
Thank you for getting up with us today. Up next is Melissa Harris-Perry.
Stay tuned. We`ll see you next weekend. Have a great week.


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