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All In With Chris Hayes, Tuesday, October 27th, 2015

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Date: October 27, 2015
Guest: Niya Kenny, Todd Rutherford, Kimberle Crenshaw, Redditt Hudson,
Rick Wilson, Lynn Vavreck, Peter Moskus, Richard Rosenfeld


CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST (voice-over): Tonight on ALL IN --


HAYES: There will be a federal investigation of the officer caught on
tape flipping a South Carolina high school student.

Tonight, Niya Kenny, the student who was arrested after standing up
for her classmate joins me in an ALL IN exclusive.

Then --


HAYES: Donald Trump dethroned as Ben Carson drops two more policy

JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: Isn`t it redistribution of wealth?

HAYES: And the field gets fed up.

it with these people.

HAYES: Plus, Hillary Clinton picks up an endorsement from a
progressive hero.

And the politics of crime.

lawlessness in this country. The president encourages this lawlessness.

HAYES: The president pushes back on the so-called "Ferguson Effect".

that seeks to divide police and the communities they serve.

HAYES: When ALL IN starts right now.


HAYES: Good evening from New York. I`m Chris Hayes.

The FBI is leading an investigation into the circumstances that led to
a police officer`s heavy use of force and arrest of a Spring Valley high
school student in Columbia, South Carolina. Several videos of yesterday`s
incident apparently taken on cell phones of other students in the classroom
created an immediate and wide spread outrage.


HAYES: When this story broke last night, we also showed you the
second video of the incident. The Justice Department`s civil rights
division, the FBI, U.S. attorney`s office for South Carolina are conducting
the civil rights probe into the case.

Two people, including the student physically handled there by the
officer, were arrested for a charge called disturbing schools. The other
student arrested, a witness who tried to stand up for the student before
being detained, will join me in just a moment.

A third video shows another angle of the same incident. Sheriff Leon
Lott of Richland County who was attending a conference in Chicago on law
enforcement returned today and restated what authorities already claimed,
the student refused to leave the class when a teacher and administrator
asked her to and when the school resource officer asked her, too. The
sheriff said he was disturbed by weather saw on the videos.


SHERIFF LEON LOTT, RICHLAND COUNTY, SC: This is very disturbing.
We`ve seen one video, we`ve seen two videos, now, there`s a third video.
We have a third one that`s come forward now.

Another child or student in that class video that also from a
different angle and it shows a different perspective. It actually shows
the student hitting the school resource officer with her fists and striking

Now, what she does is not what I`m looking at. What I`m looking at is
what our school resource officer did. What was his actions? What did he

She disrupted class. She was disturbing the other students from
getting their education. So she`s in the wrong. But, does her actions
meet the level to what this officer did? That`s what we`re going to


HAYES: The sheriff`s claim of the student striking the officer may
refer to what she does with her arm involuntarily or voluntarily, it`s hard
to say when the officer is flipping her over.

The sheriff was asked whether there might have been a racial component
to the incident, he responded with this.


LOTT: I don`t know. It`s difficult to say that, and I guess in one
way, I make that decision based on personal knowledge about this deputy.
He`s been dating an African-American female for quite some time now. You
know, and so does that have a bearing on his thought process? It may have.
But I would think that would have it on a positive way and not a negative


HAYES: The officer in question, Ben Fields, is one of the two school
resource officers at the high school. He`s been placed on administrative

Officer Fields has been sued twice. One of those cases decided by a
jury in his favor and upheld on appeal. Another case filed by a former
Spring Valley student who was expelled in 2013 is set for jury trial in
January of next year.

The lawsuit said Officer Fields unfairly and recklessly targets
African-American students with allegations of gang membership and criminal
gang activity. Fields denies any wrongdoing in this case, as well.

Today, the board of the Richland School District Two condemned
yesterday`s act in the strongest terms.


place in this district or any other district for that matter for what
happened here yesterday. Our tolerance for it is zero. I repeat that what
happened yesterday and what we all watched on that shamefully shocking
video is reprehensible, unforgivable, and inconsistent with everything that
this district stands for what we work for, and what we aspire to be.


HAYES: The board has caused for an investigation by South Carolina`s
Law Enforcement Division or SLED and says it will re-evaluate, reinforce,
and strengthen training of school personnel on the appropriate use of
school resource officers and will refer this incident to their existing
diversity task force.

According to Reuters, the school district`s Black Parents Association
has called for a Justice Department probe into what it says are "long-
standing, discriminatory practices by the school district" itself.

Joining me now, Spring Valley High School student Niya Kenny, who
witnessed the incident and was arrested after standing up for the student
in question. Also with me her attorney, Todd Rutherford.

Niya, thank you for joining me tonight. Can you give us a little
perspective on what happened in that classroom before the videos all start?

NIYA KENNY, WITNESS: Well, she was asked to leave the classroom, and
she refused to leave the classroom. And our teacher then called an
administrator in the class, and she still refused to leave. And that`s
when Deputy Ben Fields was called in.

HAYES: Could you tell us, was her infraction that she was -- I had
seen reports she was looking at her phone. That was what attracted the
attention of the teacher initially?

KENNY: Yes, sir.

HAYES: Okay. So she was looking at her phone. She wasn`t like
standing up and yelling or anything like that?

KENNY: Not at all. She`s a quiet girl. She doesn`t do anything to
anyone in the class. And it was really because she wouldn`t give up her
phone. And so our teacher, you know, tried to kick her out of the class.

HAYES: The teacher tried to kick her out of the class because she
won`t turn over her phone. He calls an administrator. She won`t turn over
her phone to the administrator or leave. Then that`s when the police
officer comes in, Mr. Fields. Is this something you`ve seen before that the
school resource officer is called into a classroom situation like this?

KENNY: Never have I ever seen anything like that.

HAYES: Were you and other students surprised that it seemed to
escalate to that point?

KENNY: Maybe the other kids were because they were younger, and this
is like they haven`t been at Spring Valley this long. But I`ve heard about
him. So I wasn`t really surprised because I`ve heard so much about him.
So I -- before he came to class, I was actually telling them take out your
cameras because I feel like this is going to go downhill because I`ve heard
so much about him.

HAYES: This school resource officer in particular, you have already
heard about before he came in. What do you mean you`ve heard things about
him? What have you heard?

KENNY: Oh, yes, sir. He`s known as "Officer Slam" around our school.
And I have heard he`s in the past slammed pregnant women, teenage girls.
He`s known for slamming.

HAYES: One of the things that is so striking in this video is, the
other students in the class seem very quiet and - and scared and contained.
No one seems to be intervening. Why do you think that was?

KENNY: They were scared. They were scared. I was scared myself.
But more than likely, they were scared. I feel like the two grown men in
the class were also scared theirselves because who`s ever seen anything
like that? That`s not normal for someone to be handled like that, let
alone a 16-year-old girl by a 300-pound man.

HAYES: The -- you at one point did get up, right, to say -- what did
you say? What happened?

KENNY: I was screaming, crying like are you guys seriously let this
happen? Like, this is not right. You guys know this isn`t right, and you
guys are really letting this happen right now. I guess maybe they were in
shock, but still, I feel like somebody in the class should have helped her.

HAYES: Did the teacher or the administrator who were in the class,
did they say anything or to the officer say hey, this is excessive, or try
to intercede in any way?

KENNY: Not at all. They were both quiet. Just like the kids.

HAYES: So everyone`s sitting there in stunned silence, watching this
happen. You then start saying something. What happens next?

KENNY: And then the administrator, Caron Webb, who was also in the
class starts telling me, "Sit down, Niya, be quiet, Niya. Put your phone
away, Niya." And I`m just like no, no, like, this is not right. This is
not right. I can`t believe you all are doing this to her.

HAYES: And then you are eventually arrested?

KENNY: Yes, sir.

HAYES: Who arrests you? Is it Officer Fields?

KENNY: Yes, sir, it was.

HAYES: So does he cuff you?

KENNY: Yes, sir.

HAYES: He cuffed you in your class?

KENNY: Yes, sir, in front of the classroom.

HAYES: Mr. Rutherford, your client is now facing criminal charges?
Am I understanding this correctly?

was an heroic act and try and stop this monster from brutalizing this
child. It`s been said before, and I was at the Waffle House before I came
over here, listening to just people dialogue about this. And one of their
concerns was that when they -- an adult, a teacher, an administrator, ask a
student to do something, that student should immediately do it. And while
we don`t question that, there is no doubt that no one, no human being, no
animal should be treated the way that she was treated.

Shikara was taken by her neck and in doing so - as soon as the officer
grabbed her neck, you see her react to what the sheriff says. She laid
punches on the deputy, which is just the most ridiculous thing I`ve heard.
She was then tossed across the room -- so far, I might add, that when she
was tossed the deputy had to walk over to where she landed. He didn`t just
step. He threw her so far that he had to walk over to where she landed.

It`s the most ridiculous thing I`ve ever seen, and the fact that the
sheriff is waiting to review the tape, that he is not outraged the way that
every other citizen is, is just the most ridiculous thing, again, I`ve ever

HAYES: All right. Todd Rutherford and Niya Kenny. Niya, I just want
to thank you very much for coming on tonight and being so clear and poised.
It`s really impressive. Thank you very much.

KENNY: Thank you for having me.

RUTHERFORD: Thank you, Chris.

HAYES: All right. Joining me now, Redditt Hudson, former St. Louis
police officer, co-founder of National Coalition of Law Enforcement
Officers for Justice, Reform and Accountability. And Kimberle Crenshaw,
she`s professor of law at UCLA and Columbia, and cofounder of the African-
American Policy Forum.

Kimberle, I feel like I need to process what I just heard.

do too.

HAYES: I don`t know. It`s very -- it`s sort of a remarkable -- if
there is a single small upside it`s this Niya thing was not standard
practice, that someone become (INAUDIBLE) to the school which part of my

CRENSHAW: That`s the only upside.

First I have to say, congratulations and thank you to Niya for
actually standing up, and telling the story. Actually being a voice of
reason in that moment, right? And we see the consequences of that is
basically now she`s in trouble, too.

You know, it`s so outrageous what happened that it`s difficult for us
to also focus on the fact that charges are still pending against both of
these women.


CRENSHAW: That`s telling us something about what the consequence is
of having police in schools, right? You know, there`s that thing if you`re
a hammer, everything looks like a nail. If you`re a police officer,
everything looks like a crime. If you`re a violent police officer, every
moment of defiance as you define it is a justification for coercive force.
We`re talking serious coercion at this moment.

HAYES: Yes, Redditt Hudson, I`d like your thoughts on that as a
former police officer yourself. I`ve talked to a lot of cops over the last
two years. A lot of them say look, sometimes you`ve got to put hands on
someone. This doesn`t seem to me, from my amateur perspective, like an
appropriate use that have.

What you saw on that videotape was a senseless and brutal assault on a 16-
year-old girl that`s unjustifiable under the circumstances.

Thank God for the awareness of the young lady who was just on and her
classmates filming what happened so that we have an objective record of
what took place. Without those videotapes, this officer is not on
administrative leave. The Justice Department is not involved and we`re not
where we are right now.

Importantly, those video cameras and those officers who are now out in
the national discourse talking about a "Ferguson Effect" are really
indicting the system itself because what they`re saying in effect now that
you all can create objective records of our behavior consistently as we
execute our public responsibilities, we can`t do it anymore. Because we do
so much dirt, we`re afraid to work.

HAYES: Let me ask you your response to the sheriff`s comments today.
I want to get your thoughts too, Kimberle.

But, Reddit, the sheriff`s comments after coming backing from this
conference that the president was speaking at today, particularly what he
said when asked whether it was racial mentioning the personal life of the
officer in question, what`s your response?

HUDSON: My response is this. I would qualify his statement and say
that racially, my problem would be with the amount of times this happens in
communities of color to children of color in schools that are predominantly
African-American or Hispanic and Latino.

He may be dating a black woman. I don`t know. By I`ll bet you he
wouldn`t have put his hands on a white 16-year-old girl the way that you
saw him treat this young lady on that videotape. He slammed her forcefully
to the ground and threw her across the room after he grabbed her around the

What`s consistent, regardless of anyone`s personal life, is in the
execution of their public duties, the disproportionate use of excessive
force and unnecessary force against people who don`t deserve it.

CRENSHAW: Yes, and I just want to add to that that while this is
taking place in schools, that will level of force, that kind of brutality
that we`re seeing in this video actually happens outside of schools, as
well. One of our recent reports say her name looks at black women who have
been manhandled and basically killed by precisely that kind of force.

Tanisha Anderson, Cleveland, Ohio, was killed days before Tamir Rice
by police basically throwing her to the ground and getting on top of her or
Natasha McKenna was also killed by six white officers in hazmat uniforms
with masks. Actually went to extract her from a cell. She was nude when
she came out she said, you promised you wouldn`t kill me and they proceeded
to body slam her and tasered her four times while she was handcuffed to a

So this kind of behavior towards black bodies we know about. But what
we don`t know the about is it happens to black women, as well. We actually
think there`s a gender and race component to that.

HAYES: All right. Redditt Hudson and Kimberle Crenshaw, thank you
both very much. Really appreciate it.

Still ahead, President Obama addresses a conference of police chiefs
pushing back on the Ferguson Effect. A look at whether there`s data behind
the alarmism.

Plus, Donald Trump loves trumpeting his poll numbers it until they
start showing him second to Ben Carson. Now, they`re, I`m quoting, "not
very scientific."

On the other hand, Hillary shows a huge surge in polls after a strong
week of campaigning. Her team, though, says the polls are wrong. We`ll
look at those numbers and more, ahead.



supporting capable partners in opportunistic attacks against ISIL or
conducting such missions directly, whether by strikes from the air or
direct action on the ground.


HAYES: Defense Secretary Ashton Carter on the Hill today saying U.S.
troops will be fighting ISIS on the ground. And apparent contradiction
confident administration`s insistence that U.S. troops are in Iraq to
advise and assist, not to have a combat role.

But an apparent confirmation of what we already knew after American
and Kurdish commandos stormed a prison held by ISIS in Iraq last week. An
Army Master Sergeant Joshua Wheeler became the first American killed in
action in Iraq since 2011, dying in combat even though according to the
Pentagon he did not have a combat role.


CARTER: He was killed in combat. That wasn`t the intent of the
obviously. He was accompanying those forces but when he saw that they were
running into trouble, he very heroically acted in a way that all the
reports suggest spelled the difference between the success and failure of
that important mission.



HAYES: At a third Republican debate tomorrow night, Ben Carson will
take center stage right next to Donald Trump, who just fell out of the top
spot in the national poll of Republican voters for the first time since
July. Carson edges out Trump 26 percent to 22 percent, with the other
candidates far behind.

And while that`s within the margin of error, it comes after a string
of polls showing Carson expanding his lead in Iowa where the caucuses kick
off less than 100 days from now.

Campaigning in Iowa tonight, Donald Trump pleaded with his supporters
to improve his poll results.


TRUMP: Will you get the numbers up, Iowa, please? This is
ridiculous. I mean, what is my competition? In all fairness, in all
fairness, what is my competition? Do you think these guys, I`m not going
to say Carson.

I mean, I am second. It`s not like terrible. But I don`t like being
second. Second is terrible to me.


HAYES: Meanwhile, Ben Carson has surged to the front of the pack
while taking a break from the campaign for his book tour and while making
policy statements that have ranged from baffling to downright alarming. He
suggested, according to "Politico", we abolish Medicare. He told Glenn
Beck he`d use the Department of Education to monitor colleges for extreme
political bias and deny them funding. And now says as president, he would
not sign any budget that ever raises the debt ceiling.

Today, Carson seemed to veer way off-script, signaling he would
support pooling and redistributing taxpayer dollars to fund underserved


DR. BEN CARSON (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They`re talking about the
entire nation and we`re talking about what makes us competitive in the
world. And the great divide between the haves and the have-nots is
education. That`s very different than redistributing funding because you
feel that that`s the social thing to do.


HAYES: Now, that idea ending our national practice of funding schools
primarily through local property taxes is actually a great one and has been
around for a while on the left. But it`s so far outside the mainstream,
Bernie Sanders doesn`t even support it, which may it be why Carson posted
clarification to his Facebook page, "I support Title 1 funding to raise up
poor inner-city and rural schools. I do not support the national pooling
of property tax receipts. That is a falsehood."

With Republican voters rewarding Carson in the polls, it`s no wonder
some of his opponent like Ohio Governor John Kasich, polling at 2.6 percent
in the Real Clear Politics average are -- well, starting to snap.


KASICH: I`ve about had it with these people. Let me tell you why.
We`ve got one candidate that says that we ought to abolish Medicaid and
Medicare. Have you ever heard of anything so crazy as that?

We got one guy that says we ought to take 10 million or 11 million
people and pick them up -- I don`t know where we`re going to go in their
homes, their apartments. We`re going to pick them up and we`re going to
take them to the border and scream at them to get out of our country?
That`s just crazy. That is just crazy.

What has happened to our party? What has happened to the conservative


HAYES: Joining me now, Republican media consultant Rick Wilson.

Rick, do you feel any sympathy for the plaintive wail of John Kasich?

tiny, tiny nano-scale violin. You know, John Kasich is guy he who is like
a guy who piss off the Republican voters. That doesn`t excuse one of the
things -- the things that Trump and Carson are saying that are way --
frankly way outside of the limited government conservative mainstream. But
I have a lot of the trouble building up a big well of sympathy for John
Kasich right now.

HAYES: So, here`s why I wanted to have you on. We`ve been talking
about Trump the whole time. At one point, a number of times you were on,
you said, basically, look, people are going to come at him on policy,
right, nail him down on stuff. And, you know, he`s going have to defend
whether it`s his love of eminent domain or all of his views he has that
were out of line with the Republican base.

What`s actually happened is that he`s just been supplanted by someone
who has less policy chops as far as I can tell than he does, the one person
in the race who seems to care even less about actually fleshing out a
policy agenda.

WILSON: The very sort of Zen nature of Ben Carson is sort of
deceptive. I mean, the guy seems so calm and mindful and so quiet. And
yet, there`s a lot there that is frankly, I don`t think people have had a
good hard look at yet as a candidate and as a potential president.

And, you know, this is a guy who has a lot of assets and a lot of high
regard among Republican primary voters but there`s also a certain emerging
unreadiness I think in terms of where he`s at on having a developed set of
limited government principles beyond a few things and he gets in deep water
very quickly. He gets over his head very quickly when you start drilling
down on policy questions with him.

HAYES: Here`s why I think -- I would agree with that. Let me say,
here`s what I would say is my position if I`m say a big sort of GOP donor
class member, if I`m in the vaunted Republican establishment.

I am psyched about Carson`s rise, because here`s what it makes me
think -- in 2012, we got the chart of the primary leader that happened in
that summer before the 2011 where everyone sort of gets a turn, right?
Those were truncated short cycles, four, six, eight weeks and eventually
went into Romney. Carson`s rise at the expense of Trump makes me think
hopefully, again, if I`m a donor class establishment Republican, the same
thing`s happening here just on a longer time scale.

Does that scan to you?

WILSON: Somewhat but here`s the thing. But here`s the thing -- Trump
is still a powerful force right now and still holding a lot of the part of
the base that is very activated by his message, the nativist message that`s
got a fraction of the base energized. The donor class can`t just sit back
on the sidelines and say, oh, well, don`t worry, this will work itself out.
They`re still going to have to go out and put a bullet in Donald Trump.
And that`s a fact.

They`re still going to eventually have to figure out ways to find
candidates that are going to be of the caliber and the quality level to
post up against Hillary Clinton because right now, I will tell you, no
matter who you support or how much you like them, neither Donald Trump or
Ben Carson is ready to go up against the Clinton machine. And that`s not
saying that Jeb Bush is, or Cruz or Marco or anybody else is either.

But those guys are obviously not ready for primetime when the answers
that they`re giving are -- there are a dozen TV ads against Ben Carson.
Whether you love him or not in the statements he made just today that the
Clinton people are smart and quick and they will use against us.

HAYES: That is a key point. You will start hearing that more I
think, as we get closer to the beginning of the official vote counting.

Rick Wilson, always a pleasure. Thank you.

WILSON: Thanks, Chris.

HAYES: All right. Can you imagine a congressional committee more
partisan are more destructive than Benghazi Select Committee? We can. We
will tell you all about it, next.



JIM INHOFE, SENATOR OF OKLAHOMA: In case we have forgotten because we
keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest year on record, I ask the
chair, you know what this is? It`s a snowball. And, that`s just from the
outside here.

So it`s very, very cold out. Very unseasonal.

So, here Mr. President, catch this. Uh-huh.


HAYES: Right.

So, the most famous climate change denier in congress, Senate
Environment and Public Works Committee chairman Jim Inhofe is now thinking
about taking his crusade to the upcoming climate talks in Paris, this
according to The Hill, attempting to block a binding agreement by being
what he calls a quote, "one-man truth squad".

While Inhofe may be the public face of Republican denialism however,
one of his colleagues in the house is waging something like guerrilla
warfare on climate

Congressman Lamar Smith, Republican from Texas, chairs the House
Committee on Science, Space and Technology, a body that David Roberts of
Vox argues is even worse than the select Committee on Benghazi. Because
while the Benghazi Committee is at the very least investigating a real
security failure that led to the death of
four Americans, Congressman Smith`s committee is spending its time hounding
scientists who are advancing our understanding of climate change, a group
never had much regard for.


always make these kind of predictions and obviously, there is some people
that want to use
environmental regulations to try to control the economy or trying to
control private property.

But if you look at their predictions in the past, the five or ten or
15 years, most of the predictions have been wrong, and anybody who`s going
to predict
what`s going to happen in the year 2100 you know, 85 years from now, is not
going to be correct.


HAYES: We should note, a lot of those predictions have in fact been

In the previous session of congress, Smith held more hearings on the
search for extras terrestrial life than climate change.

Now, he`s taking a different approach, effectively using the
committee`s subpoena power to harass scientists whose work he doesn`t like.

He subpoenaed records from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Institute over a study that refuted claims of a pause in global warming
during the last decade. He conducted an intrusive review of the National
Science Foundations peer review grant process, alleging the agency wastes
tax payer money on frivolous research.

And now he`s looking to investigate a climate research non-profit,
whose director signed a letter to the Obama administration asking it to
investigate fossil fuel companies that may have deceived the public about
the risks of
climate change.

Revealingly, Congressman Smith said the letter constitutes, quote,
political activity." Pot meet kettle.

With all that, it should surprise exactly no one that Smith raises a
huge amount of campaign cash from the oil and gas industry.

This is the new normal in our Republican controlled congress, with
several must pass items on the agenda including a budget, the bill to raise
the debt ceiling, the House Science Committee would rather use its time to
bully scientists.

There has, however, been one small ray of light this week. Kelly
Ayotte of New Hampshire just became the first senate Republican to endorse
the Obama administration`s Clean Power Plant, which aims to reduce carbon
emission from power

Ayotte, we should note, is facing a tough re-election battle against
the state`s popular Democratic governor.

As always, the best way to get a politician to care about an issue, is
to credibly threaten their job if they don`t.


HAYES: The Clinton campaign will begin airing a group of new ads
tomorrow in New Hampshire and Iowa, just as new polling in Iowa suggests
that Hillary Clinton has regained her footing. That`s putting it mildly.

In the first survey since Joe Biden announced last week he would not
be running for president, and since coming off her debate performance on
the Benghazi testimony, Monmouth University finds Clinton with a commanding
41-point lead
over Senator Bernie Sanders in Iowa.

While Sanders is widely seen as running to the left of Clinton, the
shows Clinton leads Sanders by a wide margin among people who consider
themselves very liberal.

In a second Iowa poll out today, this one from Laurus College, Clinton
also holds a massive lead, running 38 points ahead of Sanders.

But, Clinton communications director, Jennifer Palmieri, doesn`t seem
to be buying it. A few hours ago she tweeted out, quote, "Let the record
show we
don`t just complain been public polls that are bad for us. These two Iowa
polls are great for us and crazy wrong."

Now, some who study campaigns argue the best predictor of who is going
to win
a primary is not the polls at any given moment, particularly this early on,
it`s endorsements, where Hillary Clinton has a clear-cut advantage.

Going into today, Bernie Sanders had a total of two endorsements.
Hillary Clinton had the endorsement of ten Democratic governors, 120 house
Dems, and 32 senate Dems.

Today, she picked up a 33rd senate endorsement, Senator Sherrod Brown,
a name that might seem unlikely and surprising to some, considering his
voting record is
very similar to Bernie Sanders.

Earlier tonight, Senator Brown gave his rationale for endorsing
Clinton to our Chris Matthews.


SHERROD BROWN, SENATOR OF OHIO: I`ve had long conversations with
Secretary Clinton, with her staff people, and I have -- I`m pleased with
what she`s talking about.

I`m very confident that we`re going to see the kind of presidency that
I think will make progressives proud.


HAYES: Joining me now, Lynn Vavreck, a political science professor at
UCLA, co-author of The Gamble, a book about the 2012 presidential campaign.

So Professor, I hear all the time political scientists talk about this
thing called the invisible primary, and they place predictive power on

Why are those so important?

about endorsements is the pace, and the second thing is the share. And so
we want to think of those things separately but both are important, Chris.

So the first is a signal that pace of endorsements is a signal of how
sure are the party elites about who they want to coordinate around.

And then the share of endorsements tells us that they`re picking the
same person.

And so both things are important, and you see different things in both
parties right now. That`s interesting.

HAYES: Well, here`s on today`s endorsement, Sherrod Brown endorsing
Hillary Clinton, some people found that surprising because you know,
Sherrod Brown ideologically and voting records seems more similar to Bernie
Sanders than he does Hillary Clinton.

Of course, there`s a lot of criteria that go into this selection
process of endorsements.

What are they other than ideologically affinity?

VAVRECK: Well, elites have a lot of reasons as you`re suggesting that
they might want to jump on the bandwagon with one candidate or another.

Those range from wanting to be on the winning team, to hoping to play
a role
either in the campaign or perhaps in the administration, to just wanting to
join the process and generate a little media coverage.

We, as political scientists, don`t know the a lot about the individual
reasons that each different political elite might make those choices, but
we`re sort of interested in and what we`re always talking to you guys about
is sort of the average collective state of the endorsement pool.

HAYES: Right. So, here`s where it gets interesting, right? Because on
the Democratic side you`ve got a pretty clear front runner, who is a clear
front runner. Hillary Clinton, both in national polling and in the
endorsements. She`s mopping up.

On the Republican side, it`s very different. Jeb Bush is in the lead
endorsements, he`s got Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul trailing
None of those people are in the lead with the voters right now.

And so, it seems we`ve got a really interesting fork in the road about
the predictive models of endorsements, or whether we`re seeing something
new that calls
those endorsements into question.

VAVRECK: I like to think about this in terms of timing, as well. So,
when we talk about endorsements being predictive, we really are talking
about a period of time before the process starts becoming a feedback loop.

I would say a little bit now on the Republican side, we`ve moved into
the part where it`s a bit of a feedback loop. The pace of endorsements has
been slow, and I would say for 2016, that`s what we`ve learned from elite
endorsements on the Republican side. The party`s having a hard time

From here forward, you want to be concerned about what you`re
suggesting, that public opinion is actually influencing what elites are
doing too.

HAYES: I see what you`re saying. So, we saw a bunch of endorsements,
people thought, oh, these people are likely to have a strong go at it.

We`re seeing a sort of trickle now as people wait on the sidelines,
waiting to see where things happen in terms of popular opinion, and then
we`ll sort
of see this kind of elites jumping back in to kind of direct the process.

A really interesting model as we think about who actually is doing the
choosing here.

Lynn Vavreck, thank you so much.


HAYES: Coming up, have police officers scaled back in the wake of
Black Lives Matter protests? The director of the FBI seems to think so.
President Obama pushes back on the so-called Ferguson effect ahead.


HAYES: Earlier this month, we reported on the controversial plan by
state of Alabama, which facing a budget squeeze, decided to close local DMV
offices, the places where people get drivers licenses and also, provide
them with a form of ID they need to vote, thanks to the states Voter I.D.

Now, many of the offices that will close are in rural community, some
predominantly African-American. And the plan would leave 28 counties
entirely without an DMV office.

The state argued there are other ways for people to obtain an I.D. to
vote, and then later offered a small concession that those offices would
open at least once a month to serve residents.

But, there is good news for Alabama residents today. The state is
making sure at least one of their institutions remains readily accessible.

State run liquor stores. (inaudible) it announced 15 liquor stores
would close statewide, those in rural areas even the ones badly losing
money, will stay open, as the Alabama beverage control administrator says,
"what`s hard to do is close those rural ones. They`re losing more money,
but closing makes the customer constituents have to drive further to get a

Apparently, the bottle is more important to the state lawmakers than
the ballot.



Chicago, and up 11% in New York, and the murder of a police officer. The
problem is this, there`s lawlessness in this country, the president
encourages this lawlessness. He encourages it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Encourages it how?

CHRISTIE: Well, by his own rhetoric.

He does not support the police. He doesn`t back up the police. He
justifies Black Lives Matter.


HAYES: Among certain politicians and certain media outlets, it has
become an article of faith that the Black Lives Matter movement protesting
police violence against African-Americans has endangered the lives of
police officers and prompted them to scale back their crime fighting
efforts, leading to and increase in crime and the violence across the

That claim that police facing increased scrutiny have become less
aggressive, leading to an increase in crime, has become known as, quote,
"Ferguson effect", and there are many criminologists and observers who have
pushed back hard against the theory, citing first and foremost, a lack of
necessary data to the draw that

So, it was more than a little surprising when the Director of the FBI,
James Comey, gave a speech in Chicago Friday, where he said he basically
buys the Ferguson effect theory, though he admits he lacks hard evidence to
back it up.


JAMES COMEY, DIRECTOR OF THE FBI: Maybe something in policing has
In today`s YouTube world, are officers reluctant to get out of their cars,
and do the work that controls violent crime? Are officers answering 911
calls, but avoiding the informal contact that keeps bad guys from standing
around especially with guns? And I don`t know that that explains it

But I do have a strong sense that some part of the explanation is a
chill wind that has blown through law enforcement over the last year. And
that wind is surely changing behavior.


HAYES: Asked about Comey`s comments yesterday, White House Press
Secretary, Josh Earnest seems to distance himself from those remarks.


available evidence, at this point, does not support the notion that law
enforcement officers around the country are shying away from fulfilling
their responsibilities.


HAYES: James Comey is not the only prominent official alleging the
Ferguson effect is real. The Mayor of Chicago, Rahm Emanuel is making a
very similar case, telling Attorney General Loretta Lynch that, quote, "we
have allowed our police
department to get fetal and it is having a direct consequence. They don`t
want to be a news story themselves, they don`t want their career ended
early, and it`s having an impact."


RAHM EMANUEL, MAYOR OF CHICAGO: I met with officers from the 10th
district and one officer said explicitly, when I`m driving by, I have to
think about whether I want to be on the news and what it means to my

The recent events over the last year or 18 months have had an impact,
and officers will tell you that.


HAYES: It is against the backdrop of this debate the International
Association of Chiefs of Police is holding their annual conference in
Chicago right now. Yesterday, they heard from FBI Director James Comey, who
reiterated his
support of this theory.
Today they heard from President Obama. And while he acknowledged the
spike in crime this year in some cities, we should stress, he stressed the
importance of not cherry picking data to promote an agenda.

violent crime rates across the nation appear to be nearly as low as they
were last year, and significantly lower than they were in previous decades.


HAYES: When we come back, I`ll speak with a former police officer who
says the Ferguson effect may be real and a criminologist who says not so

Stay with us.


HAYES: Joining me now to discuss crime and the so-called Ferguson
effect, Peter Moskus, Associate Professor John Jay College, former
Baltimore police officer and the author of Cop in the Hood, about his
experiences on the beat in Baltimore, and Richard Rosenfeld, Professor of
Criminology and Criminal Justice at The University of Missouri, St. Louis,
and past president of the American Society of Criminology.

Peter, I wanted you to come in here because you and I were having an
exchange on Twitter after James Comey made these comments, saying that I
think that the prevalence of video cameras and the protests have changed
police behavior in a way that is leading to more crime. Defend that

possibility of

HAYES: He said, I don`t have data.

MOSKUS: He said, and we need data. It was a very nuanced and
approach. I find the backlash from the left -- the way we`re cannibalizing
our own.

If you listen to everything he said, he`s an extremely thoughtful man.
We`ve come a long way from J. Edgar Hoover when it comes to his --

HAYES: Well, that`s a low bar.

MOSKUS: But he`s been saying wonderful things. I mean, to pick on
that one comment -- I mean, that might be true.

HAYES: Okay, but then defend -- I mean, here`s -- lay out the case in
-- let`s focus on Baltimore, because I think that`s the place where you
think it`s clearest. What is the theory of the case of how protests in the
wake of Freddie Gray produced changes in police behavior that produces
increases in crime.

MOSKUS: I would say it`s less the protests, more the video cameras
and in Baltimore specifically, bringing charges against six officers, or
even in the worst case scenario for police, all six officers are almost
assuredly not guilty.

So the idea that some of them were doing their job, get in trouble for
it, get criminally prosecuted for it, it`s a reasonable officer that would
say, screw it, you know, one way we won`t get in trouble is if we don`t get
out of our car.
And that has an impact on crime.

HAYES: So it`s, we`re sort of in a defensive crouch, we don`t get out
of our car, that produces the conditions that allow --

MOSKUS: Yeah, and it`s less so much about officers who do wrong, it`s
about officers fearing that they are doing good police work and still might
get in trouble for it.

HAYES: Richard, you`ve written about this, you wrote about the sort
of homicide increase you`ve seen in St. Louis, and sort of going at the
idea it`s a result of the aftermath of Ferguson protests.

What do you make of this correlation?

MISSOURI: Well, it`s just that. It`s a correlation, but it`s also a
correlation based largely on anecdote and you know, very, very
impressionistic evidence.

My concern here, and I agree completely with Peter, is that the
conversation that we`re having is impressively evidence-free. But we do
have information
available, were it to be released, that we could use to have a more
sensible conversation.

The Uniform Crime Reports, The Nation`s official crime statistics from
the police that come out of the FBI, they`re released so late in the game.
Ten months after the collection year, 22 months after the first month of
the collection year, that they`re worthless for dealing with emerging crime
problems such as this one.
And so, we don`t even know how extensive crime increases are in the United

HAYES: Or if they`re increasing.

ROSENFELD: What`s that?

HAYES: Or if it`s increasing. I should know, I mean, part of what I
have observed is that from the very first moment there has been a rush, in
senses, it seems to me, to sort of find a crime increase in the wake of
this, as if there was a sort of a predestined expectation there would be

ROSENFELD: Right. That`s quite possible. The president today made a
remark I think was right on point. Reporters have done due diligence in
getting information
out about crime increases in certain cities, but reporters are naturally
drawn to places where there`s news, ie where there`s a crime increase after
a decline.

And the FBI has information in hand that it could release that would
inform this conversation. Not only information on crime, but also
information on arrest
rates. If the Ferguson effect argument is true, we should be seeing arrest
rates going down in cities where we see crime rates going up.

For a time we saw that in Baltimore, but we need hundreds of cities,
not just the dozen or so that reporters have told us about in order to have
a sensible

HAYES: Peter let me ask you this, one of the things Comey mentioned
that you talked about, being filmed, altering police behavior in some ways.
And, I`ve got to say, the courts are pretty clear you can do that legally.
It`s constitutional to film the police.

What if that ended up being the case, this exercise of constitutional
supervision affected police behavior in such a way that they didn`t want to
get out of their car. There`s part of me that wants to say as a citizen,
like, too bad.

MOSKOS: This is about moving the debate forward. We have to talk
about what we want police to do, rather than just slapping them every time
we see something that looks ugly.

Sometimes it is bad police behavior. Other times it`s not. Police have
is to use force. Rarely does that look good on YouTube.

We`re at this point now where we`re just telling cops, don`t do this,
don`t do this, don`t do that. And a lot of that is fair criticism. But now
we have to say, okay listen, what do we want you to do? And this is what
the FBI director

You know, at some point policing is about getting out of your car at 1
am and asking people on the corner what they`re doing hanging out there.
It`s easier for the cop not to do that.

We have to incentivize the job to engage the public in productive

HAYES: I could talk about this for an hour. I will also note, just as
a final thought here, at the end of the day, we actually don`t have a great
sense of
what causes crime to go up and what causes crime to go down. It`s one of
the great sort of unsolved sociological mysteries, although there are some
indications in a
variety of directions.

Peter Moskos, Richard Rosenfeld, thank you both gentlemen.

That is All In for this evening. The Rachel Maddow Show starts right

Good evening, Rachel.


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