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All In With Chris Hayes, Tuesday, November 3rd, 2015

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Show: ALL IN with CHRIS HAYES
Date: November 3, 2015
Guest: A.J. Delgado, Maria Hinojosa, Jim Nicholson, Bernie Sanders, Emily
Cadei, Ryan Grimm


(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST (voice-over): Tonight on ALL IN --

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Marco, Marco, Marco.

HAYES: Donald Trump shifts his focus to the other Florida candidate.

TRUMP: Look at Marco`s stance on illegal immigration. It`s really
trouble for him.

HAYES: As President Obama has a little fun with the Republican field.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: They can`t handle a
bunch of CNBC moderators.

HAYES: Then Ben Carson continues his book tour.

CARSON: I`m not a politician. So I don`t sit around and strategize.

HAYES: We`ll discuss whether he`s actually running for president.

Plus, after a huge month for Hillary Clinton, I`ll ask Bernie Sanders
how he plans to combat her surging poll numbers.

And voters cast ballots across the country today. What the governor`s
race in Kentucky tells us about Obamacare and the Democrats in 2016.

When ALL IN starts right now.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HAYES: Good evening from New York. I`m Chris Hayes.

A group of Republican presidential candidates is moving ahead with
their effort to seize debate negotiations away from the RNC, but after some
high profile defections and stinging criticism from their allies that
effort seems to have crash the and burn before it got off the ground.
Tonight, a joint letter signed by several candidates is expected to go out
to the TV networks asking them to commit to specific demands, including a
pledge to keep the temperature in the hall below 67 degrees.

But yesterday within 24 hours of drafting that letter Sunday night,
reps for at least four of the candidates said they decided not to sign it,
Donald Trump, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Carly Fiorina.

As the candidates` coup was falling apart last night, President Obama
was appearing at a DNC fundraiser in New York where he turned Republican
outrage over the last debate into a pretty effective punch line.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: Every one of these candidates say, you know, Obama`s weak.
Putin`s kicking sand in his face. When I talk to Putin, he`s going to
straighten out. Just looking at him, he`s going to be --

(LAUGHTER)

OBAMA: And then it turns out they can`t handle a bunch of CNBC
moderators at a debate.

(APPLAUSE)

If you can`t handle those guys, you know, then I don`t think the
Chinese and the Russians are going to be too worried about you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Even Megyn Kelly was ridiculing the GOP candidates last night,
mocking the demands in their letter to the networks.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MEGYN KELLY, FOX NEWS HOST: They want all the candidates to receive
similarly substantive questions. No so-called lightning rounds of
questioning. Approval of on screen graphics aired during the debate. Oh,
yes, that`s going to happen. The network should commit they will not ask
hand raising questions, yes or no questions, allow candidate to candidate
questions and then maybe like the foot massage or a little -- I mean --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No brown M&M`s.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: In an interview today on FOX News, campaign manager for Ben
Carson who spearheaded the effort to change the debate insisted their
collective bargaining experiment was a success despite the defections.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARRY BENNETT, BEN CARSON`S CAMPAIGN MANAGER: I really don`t care you
know who`s got the signed letter as long as we interject ourselves in the
process, learn earlier what the format is so we can all plan and do a
better job.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: In the wake of the debate last week, if there was one area of
consensus among the pundit class, it was that Marco Rubio emerged as the
best hope for the GOP`s establishment wing. After the debate, his support
more than tripled in the New Hampshire poll that was taken after the
debate, moving him into third place behind Ben Carson and Donald Trump.

But other polls have yet to reflect Rubio`s victory by elite
acclamation. A new poll out today from his home state of Florida, Trump is
way out ahead topping both Carson and Rubio more than two to one.

That hasn`t stopped Donald Trump from setting his sights on Marco
Rubio, attacking him over his poor attendance record in the Senate, his
personal finances and subject where Rubio is most vulnerable in a
Republican primary, his stance on immigration.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I think that really Marco is overrated. Marco doesn`t show up
to the United States Senate. Marco is a sitting senator and he doesn`t
show up for the people of Florida. And his personal finances, all you have
to do is look at his credit card.

I`m in Florida all the time. And for years, I`ve been hearing that
his credit cards are a disaster. He certainly lives above his means.
There`s no question about that.

You look at Marco Rubio, very, very weak on illegal immigration. Look
at Marco`s stance on illegal immigration. It`s really trouble for him. I
don`t see how he can win.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Joining me now, conservative columnist A.J. Delgado and Marie
Hinojosa, host and executive producer of NPR`s "Latino USA".

A.J., let me start with you.

You`re a Florida resident. You declared in your writing, you`re
supporting Donald Trump. This strikes me, the immigration issue, the fact
that Rubio was one of the gang of eight that co-wrote the Senate`s
comprehensive immigration reform bill before he abandoned it, it strikes me
as his single biggest policy vulnerability in a Republican primary.

A.J. DELGADO, CONSERVATIVE COLUMNIST: It absolutely is. I mean, I
think the voters have shown that immigration is really going to be the
critical issue in this election. And that`s why we`re seeing Rubio is
barely into double digits. You have Trump, as you noted earlier, leading
him at 37 percent to 16 percent in Rubio`s own state.

And when immigration has become such a critical issue, it`s why Donald
Trump rose the way he did because he said what we wanted to hear on
immigration. When you have it as the key issue, how can you then have the
guy who spearheaded, who was the front man for the gang of eight as a
Republican nominee? It`s just highly unlikely to happen. And the poll
numbers are showing that.

HAYES: Yes, Maria, I want to play you what Marco Rubio said just a
few moments ago on FOX about comprehensive immigration reform and the fact
that he essentially rescinded support for the bill he wrote. Take a
listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, a lot has
changed since 2013, primarily a migratory crisis on the southern border,
unlawful executive order that legalized 5 million adults in this country.
The result is, the only way to move forward on immigration reform now
begins by proving to the American people we`re making significant serious
progress on limiting illegal immigration. And until you do that, you`re
not going to be able to do anything else on immigration.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Here`s the problem for him. Whatever your views on
immigration, that clearly doesn`t scan, right? The idea that he made -- he
sort of was informed by substantive developments to rescind his support,
like is anyone buying that?

MARIA HINOJOSA, NPR`S "LATINO USA": I`m kind of stuck at the part
where he`s at what happened to the Central American refugees over the
summer determining and changing everything. And I`m like, really? First
of all, we have to remember that children have been coming to this country
from Central America, from the rest of Latin America for years. This is
nothing new.

HAYES: Right. That`s -- yes, that`s the point, right? It scans so
obviously disingenuously, how can people think you`re serious?

HINOJOSA: That`s what`s that everybody`s wondering. If those numbers
of Rubio`s interests really are showing across the country, then what`s
going to happen in terms of Latino voters looking at his very specific
policy decision? Not only on immigration but something interesting we
found because Latino USA is doing a whole hour about Latino voters this
week.

And we found that Latino women are turning out in higher numbers than
Latino men. One of the issues that`s driving them is productive rights.
So, you put that together and you`re going to have a real situation there.

HAYES: Well, this is the thing, right? I mean, obviously, Latino
voters are not single issues, right, on immigration. And in fact, there`s
long been the idea if we can get over the immigration issue, we can win
them on GOP side.

On the flipside of that, A.J., there are a lot of single issue
immigration voters in the Republican primary. That is something that I
think a lot of folks continue to not get their head around. Like these
people who care about immigration first who want the wall, who like Donald
Trump on this, they`re serious. They are going to vote on this issue.

DELGADO: And many of them are Latinos like me. That`s the big myth
is people assume if you`re Latino, you`re in favor of immigration reform,
you`re against the border. You`re against border security.

It`s not true. A Gallup poll showed a couple of months ago, that two
out of three Latinos want less immigration. You also sees in Florida,
Trump is beating by more than twice the support both Rubio and Jeb who are
both pro-immigration reform with Latino voters.

So, the myth has been completely debunked that Latinos here are
somehow all pro-immigration reform, and that`s their top issue. It`s
simply not true. We`re like every other American. Jobs, the economy,
education, health care are.

HAYES: Just a quick interjection here. The polling on comprehensive
immigration reform does show wide margins of Latinos supporting, reliably.

DELGADO: Among Republicans though?

HAYES: No, no, of Latinos generally, right? As a voting bloc,
Latinos widely support in poll after poll a pathway to citizenship. That
is a polling fact about Latino voters in the country. That said, millions
of people --

DELGADO: No, no, I dispute that. Two out of three in the Gallup
poll, this wasn`t just Republicans want less immigration.

HAYES: But that`s a different thing. Wanting less immigration is a
different thing than actually supporting reform.

HINOJOSA: So, there`s other information. You know, one out of every
four Latinos knows someone who has been detained or deported. One out of
every three Latinos worry someone they know could be detained or deported.

So, those are very real numbers. This is a heart issue. There may
be, yes, a concern like, well, maybe we should control immigration.

HAYES: Or have less or have border security.

HINOJOSA: People would say if we could stand in line to get the
proper paperwork, we would do that. There is no line which is the other
thing that no one understands. There`s no line to stand in.

HAYES: A.J., the point to me here also seems that Rubio right now and
this is true I think in both directions, he`s caught in no-man`s land. I
mean, if you`re someone who wants border security who is suspicious that
the Republican Party as soon as they get in are going to sell you out on
immigration reform, you can`t trust Marco Rubio. If you`re someone who
wants a pathway to citizenship and you want comprehensive immigration
reform, the guy`s abandoned his own bill. You can`t trust him either way.

DELGADO: And he`s lying about it. Last week on the debate stage, he
stood up and said immigration should be merit based and everybody uploaded.
You go back and look at his record, and the gang of eight bill had less
than 10 percent merit based immigration. So, there is -- the Marco Rubio
that goes out on campaign and says what we want to hear and then you
actually do your homework, it takes 30 seconds to Google it, wait, he`s
saying something completely different.

So, he`s in his own no-man`s land.

HINOJOSA: If Marco Rubio, let`s say, really wanted to go into this
issue and say, OK, I actually am for a pathway to citizenship, is the
Republican Party going to support him in doing that?

HAYES: No, he`s not had here`s his only play I think politically is
to lie in the primary and then if he gets the nomination to just have a
sort of about face road to Damascus moment where he says, the bill that I
wrote, the one that I abandoned, I`m back for that now. Honestly. You
know what, that`s what you will see.

DELGADO: Which he`s done. He`s flipped flopped so much.

HINOJOSA: There is an interesting opening with Rubio. I mean, I`m
hearing this as I`m kind of out there doing the reporting. There is a
sense that wow, he looked good.

HAYES: Right. Yes.

HINOJOSA: Interesting. You know, will he be able to reach with the
Mexican-American community has a very different experience on immigration
than he does? We shall see. So, it`s too early to tell.

HAYES: A.J. Delgado, Maria Hinojosa, thank you both. That was great.

DELGADO: Thank you.

HAYES: I`m joined now by Jim Nicholson who served as an ambassador
and cabinet secretary under George W. Bush, was chairman of the Republican
National Committee from `97 to 2001.

Mr. Nicholson, I wanted to get your thoughts as someone who run the
DNC on what the heck is happening over there with this -- with the
management of this year`s race? How unprecedented is what we`re seeing?

JIM NICHOLSON, FORMER RNC CHAIR: It`s not so unprecedented. It`s
pretty normal especially when you have a covey of talented candidates like
we do. They all have strong egos, strong desires, strong staffs. And
plus, you know, they ran into a buzz saw in the CNBC debate.

So what`s important is to realize what the responsibility of the RNC
is. And the RNC is sort of the transcendent, the overarching entity that
arranges for the debates tries to get some framework around them so that
the candidates whoever shows up to be a candidate in the party, and they
don`t have any control over that, will have a fair opportunity in these
debates to present themselves to the American people. That`s mission
number one of the RNC.

And then mission number two is to carry the water for the candidates
if the candidates are all in agreement. But if they`re not in agreement,
the RNC can`t advocate for them because they have to be neutral.

HAYES: Right.

NICHOLSON: And, you know, what`s good for the goose may not be good
for the gander in some of these debates. Some of them don`t mind a three-
hour debate. Some of them --

HAYES: That`s part what have we`re seeing the fissures in the wake of
this, what appears to be a failed experiment at collective bargaining with
the networks. You were -- you were at the RNC in the 2000 election. What
struck me as so different was everyone remembers the way that essentially
the Bush donor network and the Bush folks, George W. Bush speaking this
time in 2000 were able to kind of come in and if not clear the field,
obviously had he competition, John McCain gave him a run for his money, but
there was a sense in which the power of that establishment and than network
in 2000 was much more powerful than the version of that for Jeb Bush in
2015.

Does that seem like the case to you?

NICHOLSON: It does. There`s no question. And one of the other
things that Jeb has to put up with is the dissipation factor. There are
many more really serious talented candidates this time than there were in
2000. You know, one of the candidates we had who didn`t do very well was
Pat Buchanan.

So, what did he do? He didn`t just leave the debates. He left the
party. That`s another challenge for the party chairman is to keep
everybody in the boat because it`s going to be very important that we don`t
have one of these candidates do a third party candidacy in what will
obviously be a very close election.

HAYES: Do you think that`s a possibility?

NICHOLSON: No, I don`t have any reason to think that they will. In
fact, I think he has them all committed to supporting the winner of the
primary process, including Don Trump who signed a piece of paper saying
that he would, and I take him at his word that he will do that if he
doesn`t win the nomination himself.

HAYES: I can`t imagine Donald Trump reneging on a deal. Jim
Nicholson, great pleasure. Thank you very much.

Coming up, Bernie Sanders joins me to talk about his strategy to catch
Hillary in the polls and he weighs in a shocking study. We`ll tell you all
about next.

Plus, is there an impostor in candidates` clothing. A look at some
pretty compelling arguments that one of the Republican candidates isn`t
actually running for president.

And later, arguably the biggest race in the country today. How a
Kentucky race would be a referendum on the state of Obamacare.

Those stories and more, ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: Big breaking news out of the state of Kentucky on this
election night. Matt Bevin, the Kentucky businessman, Republican nominee
for governor has won. "A.P." is calling it in his race against Jack
Conway, statewide elected officer who loses the Democrat. It was a
closely, closely watched race and a lot of people thought it would turn
possibly on Obamacare.

The outgoing Democratic governor had expanded Medicaid in the state.
He had set up a very successful and effective state exchange. That`s
something we`re going to talk about later in the show.

Now for something incredible and terrifying that is happening to a
huge group of people in this country. And until yesterday, almost nobody
studying social trends knew about it. A pair of married Princeton
economists Angus Deaton and Anne Case found something truly shocking. The
death rate for middle aged white Americans people between 45 and 54 years
old has been rising. In other words, middle aged white Americans are dying
at a higher rate than they used to.

This chart shows deaths per 100,000, people from 1999 to the 2013
among people from ages 45 to 54. In every rich country, France, Germany,
U.K., the death rate for white people in this age group has been falling.
See that red line?

That`s the U.S. where the reverse is happening. The mortality rate is
up. And this trend is specific to white folks in this country. That blue
line is the death rate for middle aged American Hispanics for instance.
Their mortality rate is dropping along with everyone else`s.

And, in fact, middle aged white Americans are the only group dying at
a higher rate than they used to. In every other age group, every other
racial and ethnic group, death rates have been falling.

So, what is causing this? According to them, an uptick in suicide,
drug and alcohol poisoning and chronic liver of diseases and cirrhosis --
in other words, drinking yourself to death.

This chart shows what`s happening. More deaths from chronic liver
diseases, more suicides and perhaps most shocking, a huge uptick in drug
and alcohol poisonings, overdoses.

The increase in mortalities is being driven not by affluent white
Americans but by less educated white Americans who are going through
extremely hard times economically. From 1999 to the 2013, the inflation
adjusted income per households headed by a high school graduate fell by 19
percent, a fifth of their income just disappeared.

What we are seeing in this data, in those charts, is an absolutely
crisis. We`ve already seen it affecting the presidential race as people
pack town halls to discuss heroin addiction in New Hampshire and candidates
start laying out policies and tend to deal with the issue.

When we come back, I`ll ask Bernie Sanders, Democratic candidate for
president what we can do to address it. That`s next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: New poll today out of New Hampshire with good news for Hillary
Clinton. Clinton now leads Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire by three
points, 48-45 percent in September, when Joe Biden and Jim Webb and Lincoln
Chafee were included in the polls. Sanders had a seven-point edge over
Clinton, 43-36 percent.

Clinton`s also increased her lead over Sanders nationally. According
to new NBC News/"Wall Street Journal" poll, Clinton held a 25-point lead
over Sanders in October. A lead she has increased by six points. She now
leads 62-31fationwide with Martin O`Malley taking 3 percent.

I sat down with Sanders this afternoon and I started by asking him how
at the thinks about altering his campaign strategy based on the poll.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, one of the
major alterations is as you know, Secretary Clinton has put thing like $6
million, $7 million into campaign ads, TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire.
We haven`t spent a nickel.

Well, today, there are changes. And we have an ad up and we will
continue to do TV and radio. I think that will have a significant impact
because a lot of people especially in Iowa who don`t know who I am or what
I stand for.

But second of all, we`re feeling very good, Chris. You know, when we
started this campaign, as you know, I was considered to be a fringe
candidate. I was at 3 percent, 5 percent. We have gained a lot of ground
in the last six months. I think we`re going to continue to gain ground by
talking about the real issues that impact the American middle class income
and wealth inequality, the collapse of the American working class, climate
change and the fact that we have more people in jail than any other country
on earth.

HAYES: Let me ask you this. There`s this forum that my colleague
Rachel Maddow will be moderating this Friday. And it`s sort of an
interesting format. It occurs to me, it`s sort of an opportunity to show
at length parts of yourself you don`t normally speak about things you don`t
have an opportunity.

Are there issues -- are there parts of the Bernie Sanders agenda you
feel that Democratic primary voters don`t know enough about?

SANDERS: Well, I think, in essence what I believe, Chris, and what
many people don`t know is that given the nature of class politics in
America, given the fact that we have a corrupt campaign finance system,
that we have an economy that is rigged, the major point that I am making is
that establishment politicians cannot make the kinds of changes that we
need in these very, very difficult times.

You can`t run a super PAC and get money from Wall Street and say, oh,
yes, I`m going to take on Wall Street. What we need now is a political
movement of millions of people to transform American society, the same old
same old just won`t do it. And that is the point that has to, I think, be
made clear from our campaign`s perspective.

HAYES: You just talked about money and politics and the unprecedented
amount of money, the sort of wealth and income inequality, and also, a kind
of Democratic inequality. There was an interview by my colleagues this
morning with the Koch brothers. I want to play you this clip, this
exchange about corporate welfare and get your reaction. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC ANCHOR: What would you say to your critics who
would say you`re just like any other crony capitalist and you give money
and expect something in return? Like Donald Trump said, I give people
money and they`ll do what I want them to do.

CHARLES KOCH, CEO, KOCH INDUSTRIES: I expect something in return. I
would love to have the government stop this corporate welfare. That`s what
I want. I want the government to let companies or require that companies
only profit by helping make other people`s lives better.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: That`s Charles Koch expressing his commitment to ending
corporate welfare. Do you buy that, Senator?

SANDERS: And making life for people better, no doubt.

Look, you know, in 1980, Chris -- and we don`t talk about this enough
-- David Koch ran for vice president of the United States on the
libertarian party ticket. What his agenda was, it was not to cut Social
Security or Medicare, but to end Social Security, end Medicare, end
Medicaid, end the EPA, end the concept of the Environmental Protection
Agency. Basically, he wanted to eliminate virtually every program
developed since FDR designed to help working people and the middle class.
That is their agenda.

And to tell you the truth, you know, 30 years have come and gone, I
don`t think that agenda has changed at all. What these guys are doing is
spending unbelievable sums of money, $900 million of this campaign cycle to
support right wing candidates who are going to war big-time against working
families and the middle class. No, I do not think the Koch brothers want
to make life better for ordinary people.

HAYES: There was this study that has been getting a lot of attention,
was published yesterday. We just talked about it just a few moments ago.
I talked about it in which the mortality rates for white people in this
country, 45 to 55, are going up when the mortality rates for everyone is
going down, everyone in the developed world is going down.

SANDERS: Right.

HAYES: The main drivers of that are folks with just a high school
education and things like overdoses from drug addiction, suicide, cirrhosis
from alcohol abuse. I mean, there -- what do you think about what this
data shows about this crisis, real crisis?

SANDERS: Chris, first of all thank you very much for discussing it on
your program. When I talk about the collapse of the American working
class, that`s what I`m talking about. You know, a couple of years ago,
there was a study that came out that women in certain counties in Kentucky
and West Virginia I believe were seeing a decline in their life expectancy
compared to their mother`s.

What this is about is totally shocking. And what it tells you is that
there are millions of people in this country, working class people, whose
standard of living is going down. They are experiencing very high levels
of unemployment. They are in despair. They don`t see anything in front of
them in terms of the future that`s going to work for them.

And this opiate addiction leading to heroin has been a disaster.
Alcohol, of course, is a disaster. Suicide rates are soaring. This is a
crisis. And it speaks to what is going on for millions of families in this
country, an issue that we have got to address in the wealthiest country in
the history of the world.

HAYES: Here`s my question for you, Senator, because if you look at
the demographics of that group as a voting bloc, white folks particularly
with say just a high school education, they vote overwhelmingly Republican.
They`ve been moving and not just voting Republican but have getting more
Republican over time. And there`s a certain strain of political analysis
that those votes, the same population that is undergoing this crisis are
lost to the Democratic Party.

Can you get those votes?

SANDERS: Oh, absolutely we can. Look, I mean, the reason that I`m
running for president is that I think we need in a candidate and we need a
movement that speaks precisely not only to the young people and to the old
people, but to working class people who are in despair, who are working
longer hours for low pages, who have nothing saved for retirement.

What the Republicans have successfully said, oh, the reason you`re in
trouble is because of gay marriage. The reason that you are in trouble is
blacks are trying to take your job. That`s been the line for years.

Our job is to mobilize those people who are hurting so badly to
finally, finally stand up to the Koch brothers and to the big money
interests who have been at war against the working class for decades.

These guys have seen their jobs go to China. The minimum wage that
many of them are working for is much too low. They can`t afford to send
their kids to college to get decent child care for their little once. We
have got to reach out to them, bring them into the political movement and
work with them to stand up to the big money interests who have been
committing, you know, been at war with them for so many decades.

HAYES: All right. Senator Bernie Sanders, always a pleasure. Thank
you, sir.

SANDERS: Thank you, Chris.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HAYES: As I mentioned in that interview with Senator Sanders he will
be part of the Democratic Forum hosted by the one and only Rachel Maddow in
South Carolina, and that is happening this Friday only on MSNBC. You don`t
want to miss that.

Still to come, is Ben Carson actually running for president? We will
look at that ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: Today, the White House stood by the president`s commitment to
making a decision on the Keystone XL pipeline before he leaves office even
after a big development in the year`s long fight over that hugely
controversial $8 billion project to build a massive pipeline to carry
800,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the Alberta oil sands to the
Texas Gulf Coast full of carbon intensive oil.

TransCanada, the company behind the project, yesterday suspended its
request for a permit to build the Keystone pipeline asking the State
Department, coming to them, saying suspend your evaluation of the pipeline
proposal until after the state of Nebraska can complete its own review of
the project which could take seven to 12 months.

So, here`s the question. Why would TransCanada make that request
after pushing so hard for so long to get the pipeline built? Well,
environmentalists and many industry observers believe it is a play by the
company because it anticipates getting a no from the Obama administration
and is thus trying to hit pause and
hope the next administration is more willing to let the pipeline be built.

Quote, "TransCanada is losing and they`re trying to preserve their
options to be able to build the pipeline some day if they can get a climate
denier in the White House, Tiernan Sidenfield (ph), the League of
Conservation Voters told The New York Times.

The White House says the President Obama fully intends to make a
decision on the pipeline before he leaves office. Speaking to reporters
today, White House press secretary Josh Earnest suggested it was pretty
late in the game for TransCanada to expect the administration to hit the
pause button.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOSH EARNEST, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: This is a process that has
taken an extensive amount of time to complete. I don`t have an update for
you in terms of where the State Department currently is in the process.
But given how long it`s taken, it`s -- it seems unusual to employee to
suggest that somehow it should be paused yet again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Would you rather sell books or be president?

BEN CARSON, 2016 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I would much
rather be
president, I think, just because -- not because I have a great desire just
to have the position but because I have a great desire to save this country
for the next generation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: It`s a fair question to ask a person who is out selling books
while running for president. But New York Magazine`s Jonathan Chait chose
to ask this
question is Ben Carson running for president? As Chait points out it`s
kind of hard to tell in certain ways because "the mere fact that Carson
calls himself a
presidential candidate does not prove he`s actually running for president
rather than taking advantage of the opportunity to build his brand."

About three weeks ago, it was reported that Carson was putting his
campaign on hold to promote his book "A More Perfect Union." His deputy
communications
director characterized it this way, "it is true that Dr. Carson has been
appearing in numerous interviews about his new book, but even during these
interviews he`s talking about the campaign and his vision for America.

Meanwhile, Carson`s entire campaign seems to be essentially oriented
around
spending money to raise money. Wall Street Journal reported last month,
Republican Ben Carson`s campaign spent more than two-thirds of what it
raised in the third quarter with the bulk of its money spent on fund-
raising and digital marketing.

Conservative columnist Eric Erickson notes, "Carson`s actual
expenditure list reads like a wealthy Republican getting played by
consultants."

And yet in the weeks since Carson has been spending a considerable
time out promoting his book, he surged into the lead of the Republican
race, so he`s doing something right.

Joining me now Emily Cadei. She`s political correspondent for
Newsweek. She`s got a cover story on Ben Carson which is now online called
"America Heal Thyself: The World Through Ben Carson`s Surgical Magnifying
Glass."

Emily, what do you think of this question, particularly as he goes on
this book tour. And we were looking -- I mean, he`s moving a lot of
product it`s fair to say. He`s selling a lot of books. He`s got a very
big following. And they are spending a lot of money to raise money. What
do you make of this of what this phenomenon is?

EMILY CADEI, NEWSWEEK: Well, I think there`s a lot of candidates out
there who are
both campaigning and sort of shilling, selling books, selling themselves.
It`s a little bit hard these days to distinguish between political campaign
and sort of a
business operation.

HAYES: Marketing opportunity, yeah.

CADEI: Yeah, yeah.

So I mean, there`s been studies that looked at how presidential
candidates past cycles have done afterwards. I mean, Sarah Palin`s a prime
example of someone who sort of saw their star launched and made a ton of
money out of the presidential campaign. So, there`s a -- I`m sure that he
would love to be president, but if he doesn`t become president, there`s
some financial upside for him, as well.

HAYES: You know, one of the things I liked about your profile is you
did something I`ve been wanting reporters to do. I`ve been looking for
which is go back and talk to colleagues of his at Johns Hopkins. Because
the thing I keep thinking is was he like this in the surgery room?

CADEI: right.

HAYES: Like was he pronouncing about you know, that the way that
prison can make you gay or whatever statements. And there is a certain
kind of bewilderment I think that comes through in the interviews with some
of his ex-colleagues about the
version of Ben Carson they`re seeing now.

CADEI: Yeah, I think -- what`s always interested me about Carson is
that he was very much this revered figure for a long time before he entered
the political fray. He wasn`t controversial even though I think all along,
there were some very clear tenants of his belief system that are getting
more publicity now and getting people to scratch their heads a little bit.

But in terms of his people skills, you know, he -- everyone I spoke to
-- I was really surprised, it was pretty consistent were saying that he`s
amazing with people across all walks of life. He does not have sort of a
biased bone in his body. He just has this wonderful human touch and
ability to bring people together.

And while I don`t think we`re seeing that in some of these national
interviews he`s doing when he`s saying some controversial things, I think
it has been effective for him on the campaign trail one-on-one because he`s
really doing well with the grassroots.

HAYES: Well, and part of -- part of the paradox here is here`s
someone who announced I`m going to take -- originally announcement I`m
going to suspend my campaign and go sell books which is not a thing you
traditionally do when you`re trying to run for president, bright?

Here`s someone who says, yeah, you know, I`d like to be president. I
sort of got talked into doing it after a lot of people -- and in some ways
what seems his manifest disinterest in actually being president of the
United States seems to be the thing that people are really in the
Republican primary field really like.

CADEI: Yeah. Well, he`s not a politician. He`s not desperate for a
political promotion or desperate for the power. That`s sort of the
interpretation I think that people are taking away from him and his
message.

And you know, he also is sort of the antithesis of the back slapping
really charming charismatic politician. But I wouldn`t underestimate his
ability to charm people in that soft spoken understated way. But it`s just
different from what we`re used to traditionally on the campaign trail. And
people want different right now.

HAYES: Well, so having written this profile, having done this
reporting, is this a real thing? I mean, is this -- are we going to see
this individual in this campaign actually build a campaign organization,
stay in this? It`s 90 days until Iowa and be in this race?

CADEI: I`m not entirely convinced. I think we have to see how he`s
able to translate that popularity on social media and on the campaign trail
into some sort of organization because a lot of these races an he we saw
with Obama and Clinton in 2008, or even in 2012, it really is about
turnout. It`s about organization now. And he`s not going away. I think
people have underestimated him up to this point in terms of his appeal, but
getting people out to vote is a very different ballgame
than just getting likes on Facebook.

HAYES: All right, Emily Cadei, thanks a lot.

CADEI: Thank you.

HAYES: Why a recall effort for a local school board election in
Colorado got the attention from the conservative special interest groups
with deep pockets. That`s next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: Today, one of the most expensive local school district races
in America is taking place in Jefferson County, Colorado where three right
wing school
board members elected in 2013 face a recall election following an uproar
over a change in how teachers get pay raises and talk of reviewing the
history curriculum to more forcefully promote patriotism.

That proposed curriculum change caused students to stage a walkout
last year and teachers a sickout.

Now, the two sides for and against the recall were expected to spend
more than $1 million on this battle. This is a school board election.
Much of the money against the recall to keep those folks in power coming
from groups like
Americans for Prosperity, the conservative group founded by the Koch
Brothers.

There`s another big vote today in a race that could be a crystal ball
for the 2016 elections. We`ve got a return. AP has called it. We will
tell you about that next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: Arguably the biggest race in the country this election day is
in Kentucky, a state where Barack Obama lost by wide margins in both
presidential
elections and a state with two Republican senators but also a state where
the Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, implemented the Medicaid expansion
under the Affordable Care Act and implemented a very successful state
version of Obamacare
through the Exchange called Connect.

Just moments ago the Associated Press called the race in the hotly
contested gubernatorial race there declaring Republican businessman Matt
Bevin the victor over Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway.

Now, here`s why that possibly bigger deal than just a Kentucky
gubernatorial race, though, it`s a big deal in that respect. Bevin has
been a bit slippery
about whether he would take away Medicaid expansion in that state, though,
it is widely anticipated it will be in trouble now that he has been elected
the winner.

Governor Beshear was quite vocal what was at stake quoting the
governor "anybody who today talks about dismantling Connect," that`s the
state exchange, "and talks about repealing expanded Medicaid they don`t
know what they`re talking about. And I think on November 3, the people of
Kentucky are going to rise up against this kind of stuff and I said stuff.
I was starting to say something
else."

But as we enter the third round of Obamacare open enrollment in a year
that saw the U.S. hit the lowest percentage of uninsured since we started
measuring, tonight`s result in ominous. What tonight`s result in Kentucky
could mean for the president`s biggest accomplishment next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AUDREY TAYES HAINES, KENTUCKY HEALTH AND FAMILY SERVICES: We do not
believe that health care is a partisan issue. But every time that the
opponents to health care can attach the president`s name to it and call it
Obamacare, I believe in our governor`s race here in Kentucky they have run
against the president as if his name was on the ballot instead of against
the Democratic nominee Jack Conway.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: That was Audrey Tayes Haines, she`s secretary of the cabinet
for
health and family services in Kentucky. When I spoke with her earlier
tonight just before the Kentucky election was called for Republican Matt
Bevin.

Joining me now to talk about the ramifications of that vote, Ryan
Grimm, Washington Bureau Chief of the Huffington Post and MSNBC
contributor.

Also joining me by phone from Frankfurt, Kentucky in NBC News is NBC
News senior political reporter Perry Bacon.

Perry, my understanding is you`re outside the Conway headquarters.
You`re headed to Matt Bevin`s headquarters.

At some level, this is a red state, but still in some sense it`s a
surprising result. What`s the reaction on the ground there?

PERRY BACON, NBC NEWS: The Democrats here are very surprised. There
was some -- the people I talked to last night really did think Bevin is a
very controversial figure. You remember he went to that cockfighting rally
last year in his senate race.

So they thought -- the Democrats here thought they could Matt Bevin.
He was a pretty flawed candidate. But it looks like Conway lost by more
than five points here. So, there`s a lot of disappointment. And a lot of
people just very stunned here. There was a thought that Conway, it would
be a close race, but he would pull it out.

HAYES: Conway is an attorney general. Obviously, he`s been able to
get elected statewide. But he has lost a bunch of races. Part of this
looks like, Perry, I`m curious what, terrain was this campaign fought on?

BACON: It was not fought on like we talked about health care a lot.
But one thing Bevin did, and I talked to him about this yesterday, was
Bevin has now said that he would not -- during his primary he said he would
get rid of the Medicaid expansion. But now he`s moved at saying that he
supports what Indiana has done which is they had the Medicaid funding, but
they added some fees. They made it sort of a private option instead of
additional Medicaid.

So, Bevin sort of took that issue off the table. And what he ran on
was a lot of traditional conservative issues. He would make it a right to
work state. He would expand vouchers. All his commercials were Jack
Conway supports Barack Obama, Jack Conway supports Barack Obama. So he ran
on that a lot.

Also, one thing that was surprising here nationally, he did a lot of
work with, he went down to talk to Kim Davis, of course the county clerk
who wouldn`t issue licenses to same-sex couples. He went down there a lot.
He sort of campaigned on Planned Parenthood, on religious liberty and
emphasized those issues kind of cultural conservative issues where most
Kentuckians sort of stand with him
more than the Democrats.

HAYES: All right, Perry Bacon, thanks so much for that dispatch from
Kentucky.

All right, Ryan Grimm, you know there`s an old -- the old saying,
right, all politics is local. What has been increasingly happening in
American politics is the reverse is that all politics are national. Every
issue gets nationalized. And it increasingly becomes more and more
difficult for the party that is, you know, climbing up hill -- whether it`s
Republicans in New York or the Democrats in Kentucky to overcome that.

RYAN GRIMM, HUFFINGTON POST: That`s right. You know, these elections
are kind of like Internet comment sections. You know, they`re just big
national fights no matter where they are.

And presidential candidates are encountering that when they go to
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, people want to talk to them about the
national issues that they`re reading about on Breitbart or on the Drudge
Report or that they`re seeing on Fox News or this network or anywhere else.

Gone are the days where you kind much go to Iowa and talk about
ethanol or you run a governor`s race in Kentucky and talk about how you`re
delivering health
care to the people there. Instead, it`s about you know, how close are you
to this evil president who has a year left in his term and if you can tie
this Democrat to the broader national Democratic Party, then you can do
what you did in Kentucky
today.

HAYES: And let`s be clear, I was seeing on Twitter, I was tweaked by
a staffer for a Republican senator for saying you know GOP in disarray as
the lower third in the first part of this is we`re reporting now on this.

I mean, the Republican Party at the statewide level, at the local
level, state legislatures, has been remarkably effective during the Obama
era of nationalizing election after election in what are Red States to
carry through and it worked here.

GRIMM: Right. They`ve been running against Obama, you know, pretty
effectively since 2010. You know, what they`re going to do now that
they`re in power in a place like Kentucky will be interesting.

Kansas could be one example. Sam Brownback, he took the Tea Party
playbook, won as governor, implemented that playbook and destroyed Kansas`s
economy even while they had all of this energy money coming through in the
midst of an energy boom.

You know, he slashed taxes. He destroyed education funding. And the
economy has kind of spiraled down while states nearby have done just fine.

It`s kind of a perfect experiment where you could actually test this
policy. He`s still governor. So you know, apparently tanking the state
doesn`t necessarily cost you your job. He was reelected. His approval
rating is now close to single digits, but that`s among the voters who
recently reelected him.

So, whether Matt Bevin can wipe out health care for a couple hundred
thousand people remains to be seen. But it`s not even certain that he
would pay the kind of political costs that we would expected in the past
would come from that.

HAYES: Well, that`s the big question. He sort of kind of -- he
appeared to take it off the table. No one has yet gone back on Medicaid
expansion despite the fact Arkansas elected a Republican governor. They
kept that in place. That is the big question, 400,000 people whose health
care is at stake. They are front of mind on this evening.

Ryan Grimm, thank you so much.

All right, that is All In for this even. Tomorrow night, make sure to
tune in for my exclusive live interview with Quentin Tarantino of the
national boycott he`s now facing after his comments on police brutality.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY
BE UPDATED.
END

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