updated 6/9/2005 2:41:22 PM ET 2005-06-09T18:41:22

Guest: John Harris, Pat Brown, John Timoney, Tony Zumbado, Julia Renfro, Firpo Carr, Robert Shapiro, Lisa Bloom, Jo-Ellan Dimitrius

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE:  This is a great, cool teenager.  She‘s smart.

You know, Natalee wouldn‘t do anything just—just crazy. 

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JOE SCARBOROUGH, HOST:  Lost in paradise.  The frantic search for missing teen Natalee Holloway gains urgency, as police try to crack open the case.  Tonight‘s top headline, Natalee‘s mother begs for more help to find her missing little girl. 

Welcome to SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY, no passport required and only common sense allowed. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SCARBOROUGH (voice-over):  An entire island nation joins in the desperate search for missing Alabama teen Natalee Holloway.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  We‘re always a friendly island, but we‘re hopeful that the girl is somewhere still alive. 

SCARBOROUGH:  She disappeared early Monday, her terrified parents now pleading for her safe return.  We go inside the search for the beautiful young girl who is lost in paradise. 

Michael Jackson visits a hospital.  And as the case heads to the jury, Jackson‘s family fears the worst. 

LATOYA JACKSON, SISTER OF MICHAEL JACKSON:  He‘s my brother.  He‘s the loved one.  We all care and love him.  And we know—who know who he is. 

SCARBOROUGH:  What happened in those final minutes of closing arguments?  And how could the former king of pop survive hard time in jail?  We‘ll take you inside the Jackson family, and also inside the jury room for a look at the Jacko trial you will only get in SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY. 

An explosive new book reveals new secrets about Bill and Hillary Clinton.  The author will be here in SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY tonight to tell all and to tell us how Hillary pushed her agenda inside the White House, how she could be planning a White House run, and how Bill Clinton could be planning a run for the U.N.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER:  From the press room, to the courtroom, to the halls of Congress, Joe Scarborough has seen it all.  Welcome to SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY.

SCARBOROUGH:  Hey, good evening. 

Now, in a few minutes, we‘re going to have the latest from the island of Aruba, where the FBI, and hundreds of volunteers are desperately searching for high school graduate Natalee Holloway.  The 18-year-old from Alabama who vanished in the Caribbean island on her senior trip has not been seen in several days. 

But, first, tonight, Michael Jackson‘s fate is in the hands of the jury, after a 14-week trial with 135 witnesses.  Now, get this, people.  Those out there that are covering the trial seem to think that this stranger-than-life superstar could be headed for hard time. 

NBC‘s Karen Brown has been covering the case from the very beginning, and she joins us now from the courthouse. 

Karen, get us up to date with the very latest. 

KAREN BROWN, NBC CORRESPONDENT:  Well, Joe, I can tell you that, as crazy as this trial has been from the very beginning, today, things seemed to get very serious and very sober.  There were a lot of emotions in that courtroom today, as this case was handed over to the jury. 

At least one of my colleagues saw tears in Michael Jackson‘s eyes.  And there were a lot of hugs between Michael Jackson‘s family members.  It really seems to be weighing on this family that, indeed, right now, Michael Jackson‘s fate is in the hands of 12 strangers.  Now, both sides gave very impassioned closing arguments. 

The defense came out and, over and over again, told these jurors that this family was just a bunch of con artists, actors, and they were very fraudulent.  In fact, they said that, indeed, this family should not be trusted enough to take away Michael Jackson‘s freedom and destroy Michael Jackson‘s future. 

Now, the prosecution had the final word.  They came out swinging.  They made some key points.  They said there was no way this mother was sophisticated enough to put together such an elaborate scam, because she could barely put together two coherent sentences on the stand.  They also told these jurors that, if there was a man that lived in their neighborhood who was middle-aged and went to bed every single night with a small boy, they would be outraged.  They would be on the phone to the police in five minutes. 

They ended their case by showing a very powerful image of the accuser telling investigators for the very first time how he was molested by Michael Jackson.  Everybody in the courtroom was glued to that image.  The jurors looked very serious.  And, as this case was handed over to the jurors, they really seemed to file out of the courtroom very soberly. 

They seemed to be really aware of the gravity of the situation, as they now decide what will happen to Michael Jackson—Joe. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Karen, you talked about one of your colleagues seeing Michael Jackson weep.  Tell us—there are reports out there that have been suggesting for several days that Jackson‘s mental state, that his physical state seems to be deteriorating.  Has there been any other evidence, visible evidence, of that that you have seen? 

K. BROWN:  Well, Joe, the visible evidence is just on Michael Jackson‘s face.  If you compare how he was when this trial began, how happy and jubilant he was as he arrived to the court, turning five, six times to wave at his fans, now he seems to be barely able to get out of his car when he arrives. 

Again, he was at the hospital last night.  This is now probably the third or fourth time that he has gone to the hospital during this trial.  He was treated apparently for dehydration.  So, really, the physical evidence is just what we see as far as from Michael Jackson every day, Joe. 

SCARBOROUGH:  All right, Karen Brown, thanks so much for that report. 

We greatly appreciate it. 

Now let‘s go right to our all-star legal panel.  We have criminal defense Robert Shapiro.  Of course, he was one of the captains of O.J.  Simpson‘s dream team.  Also, we‘ve got Court TV anchor Lisa Bloom and also jury consultant Jo-Ellan Dimitrius. 

Mr. Shapiro, let‘s start with you. 

You were involved in a somewhat high-profile case also where a defense verdict shocked onlookers.  Now, we‘re hearing from a lot of people out there that are covering the trial they think Michael Jackson may be facing hard time.  Do you think a lot of court observers may be similarly surprised when the Jackson verdict comes in? 

ROBERT SHAPIRO, CRIMINAL DEFENSE ATTORNEY:  I don‘t think so. 

This case is totally unique and totally different, Joe.  The case started with the prosecution putting on a young boy who is a cancer victim who told his story.  It ended with a video of that same boy telling the same story to the police for the first instance.  You have Michael Jackson, who is very, very unusual and weird.  The jury is looking at him.  He has pornographic magazines of males engaged in sexual activity. 

And even though they‘re trying to claim that he loves children, we never see little girls involved in these situations.  I think the combination of three things, number one, the prior consistent conduct that has been spoken about by several witnesses, the fact that his little brother saw some of the activities take place, and, finally, and perhaps most importantly, the fact that the evidence is uncontroverted. 

Michael Jackson never got on the stand to say I didn‘t do this.  He has no obligation to do it.  He is constitutionally protected.  But the jury is going to be thinking about that, especially since Tom Mesereau in his opening statement told the jury they would hear from Michael. 

SCARBOROUGH:  You know, Lisa Bloom, I have been struck over the past several days how defense attorneys, prosecution attorneys, just about everybody that‘s been coming in over the past two, three days on this show, they‘ve all been coming to the same inescapable conclusion, that Michael Jackson is going to be convicted and he‘s going to face some hard jail time. 

What has happened over the past week that‘s changed the attitude of so many—most of the people I talked to before that said, you know what?  He may have done it, but he‘s probably going to walk.  What‘s changed here? 

LISA BLOOM, COURT TV ANCHOR:  Well, you know, yes.  I‘m listening to Robert Shapiro, who is a defense attorney.  I was expecting to hear defense arguments.

Joe, I have been singing the same song since Michael Jackson was indicted.  This case has some things going for it that most child molestation cases don‘t.  There is an eyewitness.  The accuser‘s brother says he saw two incidents.  There is Michael Jackson‘s own words that puts him at the crime scene.  In this case, the crime scene is his own bed.  And he admits on tape he shares his bed with boys, so that he can—quote—

“share the love.”

There is child porn in Michael Jackson‘s bedroom.  I‘ve seen these books, Joe, pictures of little boys, “full nudal frontity,” as my dad used to say, with their genitals fully exposed, boys eating hotdogs, boys eating bananas.  And I agree with the prosecution.  If any of us knew of a guy living next door who had boy after boy after boy in bed with him and these kinds of pornographic materials in his room, we would be calling the police. 

It‘s not a defense that Michael Jackson is weird, that he‘s kooky, that he thinks he‘s Peter Pan.  He needs something more than that.  And all he‘s done is attack the mother of the accuser, without ever providing a link between the mother and the kid.  It‘s the kid who reported this thing first to the police.  It‘s the kid that the jurors saw last.  And these jurors, it is possible, I have said from the beginning, they might actually believe a young kid who is a cancer survivor from East L.A., a poor Mexican kid, over an international multimillion superstar.  It could happen, even in California. 

(CROSSTALK)

SCARBOROUGH:  Jo-Ellan, let me bring you in here.  Obviously, you have worked with so many juries through the years.  Let‘s talk about the jury.  Let‘s talk about what they saw. 

Obviously, they saw a very moving videotape of this young boy talking about—let‘s face it—a hellacious situation.  Well, Jackson‘s attorney, Tom Mesereau—he‘s got to know his back‘s up against the wall.  He used his closing argument this morning to actually attack the accuser and his family.  And he said this—quote—“It‘s the biggest con of their careers.  They‘re trying to profit from Michael Jackson.  They think they have pulled it off.  They‘re just waiting for one thing, your verdict.”

Jo-Ellan, I‘ll tell you what.  It sounds to me like that‘s very dangerous, when you‘re talking about a cancer survivor.  You‘re talking about a young boy.  Could that turn off the jury? 

JO-ELLAN DIMITRIUS, JURY CONSULTANT:  Oh, absolutely.

And that‘s one of the big dangers that attorneys face in doing that, in attacking a victim.  And it‘s one thing to attack the mother.  But to attack the victim himself, a child, I think the rationale that Tom Mesereau used, that he was just under the control of the mother, well, he wasn‘t under the control of the mother at the time that the initial interview took place. 

BLOOM:  That‘s right. 

DIMITRIUS:  That was something that was done out of the presence of the mother.

And I think, to follow up on something that Bob said, I think that Bob made a really strong point when he said, why is it that, since 1992, all we‘ve heard about are young boys?  We‘ve never heard about young girls?  As a matter of fact, we learned in the testimony that girls were sort of isolated when they were up at Neverland. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Jo-Ellan, what‘s your prediction?  What‘s the jury going to do? 

DIMITRIUS:  My—my prediction is that I believe that they will come back guilty on some of the counts.  Now, it‘s interesting, because there are actually 10 counts that they have to consider, conspiracy charge, molestation charges, attempt to commit a lewd act, and, of course, the alcohol. 

But I do believe that they will come back with at least one felony conviction, and certainly the alcohol, the misdemeanor convictions.  I think that the power that this prosecutor had in closing in his rebuttal was so powerful that, clearly, those jurors, when they left the room, they knew the gravity of what they were about to go into. 

SCARBOROUGH:  I‘ll tell you what.  It will be devastating to Michael Jackson if that in fact happens.

Thanks a lot, Jo-Ellan Dimitrius.  We greatly appreciate it. 

Now, Lisa and Robert, stick around.

When we come back, we‘re going to be talking about Michael Jackson‘s trial, of course, his emotional state and whether a guilty verdict on any charge could be a death sentence, as some of his friends are suggesting.  We‘ll be right back to talk to you about that in a little bit.

And, also, we‘re going to be talking about lost in paradise.  Where is Natalee Holloway?  Her parents are appealing for more help from the United States.  Police are zeroing in on three men who were with her that night.  And we‘re going to have the very latest direct from the island of Aruba. 

That‘s coming up.

And also, a brutal attack caught on surveillance tape.  And now the police are desperately trying to locate this woman.

Stay with us in SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY.  We‘re just getting started.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCARBOROUGH:  Michael Jackson, it looks like he could be facing hard time.  Next, we ask a friend and former spiritual adviser if the strange superstar could survive prison life.

That‘s when we return.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWS BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JACKSON:  He‘s doing very well, very well.  And, again, I can‘t go into detail, but he‘s doing very well.  It really hurts.  It hurts because he‘s my brother.  He‘s the loved one.  We all care and love him.  And we know—who know who he is.  And it‘s sad that he has to take this beating for no reason.  It‘s really sad.  We don‘t like it. 

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCARBOROUGH:  That‘s LaToya Jackson voicing support for her brother. 

Now, in recent days, court observers say Jackson‘s looked extremely frail.  And it raises the question, could the pop superstar even survive prison if he were convicted? 

With me now to talk about that Dr. Firpo Carr.  He‘s a friend of Michael‘s and also was at one time his spiritual adviser. 

Dr. Carr, thanks a lot for being with us. 

Now, you have known Jackson for a long time.  What would jail time do to the pop superstar? 

FIRPO CARR, JACKSON FAMILY FRIEND:  Well, first of all, I would like to address a couple of things, Joe.  Thanks for having me on the show. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Thank you for being here. 

CARR:  Robert Shapiro and your other guests—oh, you‘re welcome. 

Robert Shapiro and your other guests fail to mention one thing.  And that is that Michael Jackson has indeed slept in the bed with other little girls and their parents and their mother, I should say.  In fact, one of the first guests, one of the first defense witnesses was a female who slept in the same bed with Michael.  My daughter stayed up there around this same time, as well as myself and others. 

A number of little girls have stayed with Michael.  So, when you say that we haven‘t heard not you—or not you, but your guests say that only little boys we hear about Michael sleeping with, then I think that that creates a wrong impression.  Furthermore, we forgot—they conveniently forgot to mention that during the first 15 minutes of the videotape that the prosecution put on as their last-ditch effort to indict—or, rather, to find Michael Jackson guilty, prefer—I should say try to persuade the jury to do that, guess what?

The little boy said that Michael slept on the floor as my brother and I slept in the bed.  No one‘s mentioning that.  It just shocks me.  And then the same cancer survivor...

SCARBOROUGH:  Well, let me bring—let me bring in Robert Shapiro. 

CARR:  Please.

SCARBOROUGH:  Robert, does that change anything? 

SHAPIRO:  I really don‘t think so. 

I think the essence of this case boils down to credibility.  Is the little boy telling the truth?  This is not a question as to whether or not the mother is a victim, the family is a victim.  It‘s a little boy who has testified.  And the jury is going...

(CROSSTALK)

CARR:  Well, the little boy has lied before.  We know the little boy has lied before. 

SHAPIRO:  Well...

(CROSSTALK)

CARR:  Family members have lied before.  They have credibility problems.  I mean, I‘m sure you will agree with that. 

Not only that.  This same little boy this same cancer survivor, Jay Leno called the cops on.  So, let‘s put it all in perspective. 

(CROSSTALK)

SCARBOROUGH:  Robert? 

SHAPIRO:  I‘m not going to argue—I‘m not going to argue with you, Doctor, regarding credibility of witnesses.  I wasn‘t there. 

CARR:  I wasn‘t either. 

SHAPIRO:  Clearly, clearly, witnesses are inconsistent.  And, more likely than not, child victims are most likely to be inconsistent, especially when having to talk about something like this publicly. 

(CROSSTALK)

CARR:  Well, Mr. Shapiro, sir, let me just ask you this. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Hold on. 

Robert, finish up.

CARR:  I‘m sorry.  OK.  Go ahead. 

SHAPIRO:  I—I—I‘m not looking at it from a point of view that I saw.  I‘m looking at it from an evidentiary point of view that the jury saw.

And it just appears to me, with almost 40 years of experience in a courtroom, that, when you have allegations of sexual misconduct, and there is no defense to those whatsoever, other than, don‘t believe these people because they are liars, they are manipulators, they are thieves, juries, no matter how many times the judge says, don‘t consider the fact that the defendant didn‘t take the witness stand, that is the first and most important thing jurors consider.  And the second thing...

BLOOM:  And, first of all, if I could jump in on the Jay Leno point, that‘s absolutely contrary to what he testified.  He said this kid never asked him for money.  He never gave the kid money.  He didn‘t call the police.  The police called him. 

CARR:  No.  Lisa...

BLOOM:  There‘s not a single celebrity who testified in this case...

CARR:  Lisa.

BLOOM:  ... that they were shaken down for money by this family.

CARR:  OK.

(CROSSTALK)

BLOOM:  The defense completely fell flat on that point. 

CARR:  Well, let‘s look at this.  Let‘s look at this.  Let me—let me tell you this and see if you can contradict this or not.  Tell me if I‘m telling the truth here or not. 

In every case, while they were getting money from these celebrities and these comedians, they were—they were—the insurance company was paying for it.  These are fraudulent individuals. 

BLOOM:  OK.  May I respond?  May I respond to that? 

(CROSSTALK)

CARR:  All of those—all of those celebrities—all of those—let me finish, though.  All of those celebrities were taken, because the father‘s...

BLOOM:  Absolutely incorrect. 

CARR:  ... insurance company paid for everything. 

SCARBOROUGH:  All right.  Well, Lisa...

(CROSSTALK)

BLOOM:  That‘s incorrect.  And I‘ll tell you why. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Hold on a second.

Lisa, let me ask you this question.  Obviously, there is an impression, whether you go to the J.C. Penney case or whether you talk to Chris Tucker, whether you talk to other celebrities that have been around these people, they don‘t appear to be straight shooters.  This mother especially...

BLOOM:  That‘s not what the testimony was.

SCARBOROUGH:  ... appears to be some...

BLOOM:  Let‘s talk about the actual testimony in this trial.

CARR:  What testimony were you listening to, Lisa?

(CROSSTALK)

BLOOM:  Let‘s talk about the actual testimony in this trial. 

(CROSSTALK)

BLOOM:  May I respond? 

SCARBOROUGH:  All right.  Go ahead, Lisa.  Respond on J.C. Penney and Jay Leno.  Go ahead. 

BLOOM:  OK. 

The testimony in this trial, not a single celebrity asked for money by this family.  Some celebrities gave them money.  The insurance does not cover everything when you have a child with cancer.  It covers their medical costs.  It didn‘t cover the germ-free room that they needed.

And I‘ll tell you something.  If I had met this poor family from the inner city when this kid had stage four cancer, I would have voluntarily given them money, too.  And you probably would have, too, Dr. Carr.

CARR:  Like Michael Jackson did.

BLOOM:  Out of the kindness of your heart.  That doesn‘t make them grifters or con artists.  That means the kid was dying.  They were good and kind people.  And people reached out and voluntarily gave them small amounts of money, a few thousand moneys.

CARR:  They lied under oath.  Did any of them lie under oath?

BLOOM:  No.  They did not lie under oath, with one exception. 

CARR:  Oh, my goodness.

BLOOM:  They protected the father, who was beating the mother at the time. 

(CROSSTALK)

CARR:  So they lied.

(CROSSTALK)

BLOOM:  They lied to say somebody was not abusive, when he was. 

SCARBOROUGH:  I want to interrupt for a second, Doctor, because, obviously, I want you to take you us somewhere where most Americans can‘t go.  That‘s inside the mind of Michael Jackson. 

CARR:  OK.  Sure. 

SCARBOROUGH:  I asked earlier, you know, a lot of people are saying, if Michael Jackson has to go to jail, he would rather kill himself, that he couldn‘t handle prison.  Do you think that view may be overly dramatic? 

CARR:  Well, I think that, while it may be close to the truth, it is somewhat overly dramatic. 

The reason I say that is this.  Michael Jackson sees himself as, say, a Santa Claus or a—oh, let‘s see, fairy godmother or something like that, irrespective of the gender, OK?  Now, the thing that gets me about this is that accusing Michael Jackson, at least in his mind, is similar or tantamount to accusing Santa Claus of having children perform lap dances on his lap.  As awful as that may seem, that‘s how Michael sees this.  He is as innocent...

BLOOM:  Only Michael Jackson would think...

CARR:  ... as this—as this fictionary figure, and that is Santa Claus.  And Michael Jackson, once again, made “The Guinness World Book of Records” by giving millions of dollars to help children out in other organizations.

So, let‘s just call it like it is.  Not only that.  We keep in mind that you might as well accuse the fairy godmother of, once she‘s put these little goodies under these pillows, of molesting children as she goes, if she were real.  That‘s how Michael sees it.  That‘s how the people who know him, who see him.  He is an individual who wouldn‘t dare do anything like this.

And what‘s amazing to me, it‘s something that I mentioned a year ago, last year, when I was on your show, Joe.

(CROSSTALK)

SCARBOROUGH:  But, you know, Robert Shapiro, though, the thing that strikes me is, again, what the prosecution said.  If there were a 46-year-old man in my neighborhood and he was having young boys stay over at his house regularly, and let‘s say some young girls in there, if that in fact is the case, we would all call the police and say, throw that guy in jail, wouldn‘t we? 

CARR:  Name—name a 46-year-old man who is like Michael Jackson.  He is unlike any other 46-year-old... 

(CROSSTALK)

BLOOM:  It‘s not a defense that he‘s weird. 

SCARBOROUGH:  And, again, I go back to you, Robert Shapiro.  That—that may be the case.  But, in the end, the jury doesn‘t care if it‘s Michael Jackson or Jim Smith.  If you have an adult, 46-year-old man, sleeping in bed with these young boys and a few young girls, that‘s going to cause problems inside the jury room, isn‘t it? 

SHAPIRO:  I think without a question, Joe.

And, also, I think one of the things that is going to be very, very

important to this jury is the prior acts.  And even though the judge has

told them the prior acts can only be used for limited purposes, the jury is

going to look at this and say, this man, in 1993, was admittedly a

pedophile by paying off such a large amount of money

CARR:  Oh, that‘s a jump, Joe. 

Mr. Shapiro, that‘s a jump.  No, that‘s...

(CROSSTALK)

SCARBOROUGH:  All right. 

Listen, really quickly, we are—we are running out on time.  I‘m going to ask you all to do it in five seconds for me.  I need a prediction.  Is he going to be convicted or is he going to walk? 

We‘ll start with you, Robert Shapiro. 

SHAPIRO:  I think the most likely outcome is guilty on molestation and guilty on the misdemeanor of alcohol possession.  The others, I think he will be acquitted of. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Lisa Bloom? 

BLOOM:  Like Yogi Berra, I don‘t make predictions, especially about the future.  But I will say I think the prosecution has presented a strong enough case for this jury to come back with a guilty verdict. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Dr. Carr? 

CARR:  I say that Michael Jackson is innocent on all charges. 

The judge saw that this man was—the prosecution‘s case falling apart.  So guess what happens?  He throws in some misdemeanors, so at least they can get him on a misdemeanor. 

SCARBOROUGH:  All right. 

Thanks so much for being with us.  We appreciate it.  Robert Shapiro, Lisa Bloom, and Dr. Firpo Carr, thanks for being here tonight. 

And we‘ll be following this story, obviously, next week. 

Coming up, the search for Natalee Holloway.  Now, we‘re going to get the very latest from Aruba on what may have happened to this young, beautiful Alabama student who vanished during her senior trip. 

And can you help law enforcement officers?  A vicious assault was caught on tape.  Why police are so desperate to find the woman you see here. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCARBOROUGH:  Coming up, evidence that Hillary Clinton‘s possible election in 2008 will be the second time the New York senator has run things at the White House.

But, first, here‘s the latest news you and your family need to know.

(NEWS BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUTH MCVAY, FRIEND OF NATALEE:  This is out of her character.  And all we want to stress is that it‘s of the utmost importance to pray as much as you can, because she is such a wonderful person and we know she‘s coming back. 

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCARBOROUGH:  Natalee Holloway has been missing now for almost four days; 18-year-old Natalee disappeared while she was on a school trip to Aruba in the early hours Monday morning. 

Police have been frantically searching the island nation.  And, today, her parents, whose $10,000 reward offer has been doubled to $20,000, has pressured the United States government for more help.  Now, according to the Aruba Police Department, three men being held for questioning are—quote—“persons of interest.”

With me now on the phone live from Aruba is Julia Renfro.  She‘s the editor in chief of “Aruba Today.”  And she‘s helping to coordinate the search for Natalee. 

Hey, Julia, what‘s the very latest in the search for this young American girl? 

JULIA RENFRO, EDITOR IN CHIEF, “ARUBA TODAY”:  Well, right now, we‘re

still in the situation where we‘ve got a lot of leads.  And a lot people

are being really wonderful and calling in.  Unfortunately, nothing has come

·         become solid. 

But we feel really confident that she still is here.  And everyone‘s really, really working hard and coming together.  And we know we‘re going to find her.

SCARBOROUGH:  You know, there is—I have been throughout the day that Aruba is a very safe place.  In fact, there was only, I guess, one murder on your island over the past year. 

I would guess that, not only is this surprising a lot of people in Alabama and across the United States, but also surprising a lot of people on the island of Aruba. 

RENFRO:  That this happened?  Oh, my goodness, absolutely.  This is an isolated incident.  And everyone‘s just shocked. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Talk—talk about the search that‘s going on right now.  You—you were a part of the search, obviously.  The island‘s not that large.  Where do they think she could be? 

RENFRO:  Right. 

Well, the island is only five miles wide and 18 miles long.  And we—we‘re just searching everywhere.  We‘re really not sure.  And we‘ve got a bunch of volunteers, tourists, local people.  We have a group of mothers that are out looking for her.  And we just know that we‘re going to find her. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Tell me about these three young men who are persons of interest, certainly not suspects.  The police just call them persons of interest.  Do you know anything about them? 

RENFRO:  Actually, right now, no.  We‘re just—we‘re just looking for Natalee. 

SCARBOROUGH:  All right.  Thanks a lot, Julia.  We appreciate it. 

Now let‘s go on the phone to NBC‘s Tony Zumbado, who sat down with Natalee‘s parents today in Aruba. 

Tony, thanks a lot. 

You had a conversation off camera with Natalee‘s family.  What did you learn from them? 

TONY ZUMBADO, NBC PRODUCER:  Well, I learned that their hopes are very high and they‘ve got high spirits and they‘re wishing for the best of this situation.  And they‘re definitely working hard.  They‘re pulling every particular rock up and down, so they can look for their daughter. 

They had a press conference today, and they basically addressed the issue of inviting the American law enforcement to come and help and be part of this search.  They feel that they hadn‘t done that officially.  So, they took the time today and had a press conference and called upon the American law enforcement to come down here and help them. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Tony, are they frustrated at the lack of support they‘ve gotten thus far from the United States law enforcement community? 

ZUMBADO:  Well, I don‘t know if they‘re frustrated.  I just don‘t think they‘ve seen, you know, what they want to see in the immediate reaction from them. 

I know they‘ve contacted their senators, and they‘ve called everybody.  But you know how it is.  The action is not down here until you see it.  So, that‘s—I think that‘s what their problem is, you know, that they haven‘t seen the action down here.  But I‘m sure, on the other end, on the American side, they‘re probably doing something that we don‘t know. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Right now, the word is that this young lady may have left, may have left a nightclub in the early morning hours with three young men who are now persons of interest.  They are three locals on the island.  What can you tell us about those three locals? 

ZUMBADO:  Well, there is a lot of information coming out.  Nothing has been able to be confirmed.  The local numbers that I have for the authorities here are constantly busy.

But what I have heard, that there is a Dutch gentlemen and two Surinam gentlemen who are prime suspects, if you will.  They were last seen with her.  They apparently know something.  And they are being questioned and held by authorities.  And they apparently know something that the authorities are very interested in and are being kept close by. 

SCARBOROUGH:  All right, thanks a lot, Tony.  We greatly appreciate you with being with us.  That‘s Tony Zumbado.  He‘s an NBC News producer. 

And with me now, let‘s bring in criminal profiler Pat Brown and also Miami Chief of Police John Timoney. 

John, let me start with you.

You know, I asked Julia Renfro of “Aruba Today” about these three young men.  She said—she claimed she didn‘t know what was going on.  I suspect she‘s not telling us the whole story.  I understand there is one young man who is Dutch, two young men who are locals there.  What do you do if you‘re the police officer in charge of this investigation and you know she left in the early morning hours of Monday with these three young men, with several witnesses seeing it. 

How do you break them down?  How do you get information from them? 

JOHN TIMONEY, MIAMI POLICE CHIEF:  Well, you do a few things, almost simultaneously.  One, obviously, is to retrace all the steps from the nightclub, speak to bouncers, bartenders, then go outside the club, any cab drivers nearby, doormen at hotels or other buildings.

And then, of course, the three guys, that‘s going to be the answer.  If there is one.  And there, it‘s going to require interviewing all three of them separately, getting their stories down, getting their first draft of their stories, if you will, what they‘re saying, and then coming back a second and a third time, have them repeat the story and change questions. 

Also, there is a few tactics you can do.  If they are lying or any one of them is lying, it will show up after the second or third go-around, because it‘s very difficult—when somebody makes up a lie, it‘s very difficult to remember all the different parts of the lie.  The truth only has one version, but a lie that‘s made up becomes difficult to remember, particularly if you have the right officer doing the questioning. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Pat Brown, you have delivered bad news on this show before.  Right now, what do you think about the situation for this young lady?  She gets into a car with three locals early—in the early morning hours.  We haven‘t seen her in four days. 

PAT BROWN, CRIMINAL PROFILER:  Right. 

SCARBOROUGH:  How does that sound to you? 

P. BROWN:  Not very good, Joe, unfortunately. 

You know, I like the title of your show, which was lost in paradise.  And, unfortunately, a lot of young people, when they go to places like this, they do think, this is paradise.  There is sun.  There is beaches.  That means everything is safe and wonderful.

And yet, if you look over at Jamaica, which a lot of people go down to Negril and Montego Bay and Ocho Rios, down in Montego—in Jamaica, you‘ve got like—I think it‘s the second highest murder rate per capita in the world.  So, it may be hot and it may have palm trees, but it doesn‘t mean it‘s safe. 

And when you add in drinking, you add in dope-smoking, which is pretty much what all the young people are doing out there when they go to these islands, you‘ve got a lot of victims waiting, in other words, people who are of their guard.  And Natalee, if—obviously, somebody saw her get in a car with these young men.  Perhaps she thought, in—as people do when they‘re that age and having so much fun, hey, it‘s a great time.  These guys are so sweet and nice.  Oh, they‘re going to drop me back at the hotel.

They just don‘t think very clearly.  And I was surprised earlier when they said, these guys weren‘t suspects.  I said, how can they not be suspects?  They have to be. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Yes.  They certainly—yes, they certainly have to be. 

Pat Brown, Chief John Timoney, thanks a lot for being with us.  We greatly appreciate it. 

P. BROWN:  A pleasure.

SCARBOROUGH:  Now, in California, Hollywood police are asking for your help in finding the people in this surveillance video recorded last Thursday at the front entrance of a Hollywood apartment complex. 

A man makes a call from his cell phone.  Moments later, a woman opens up the security lock.  There is a struggle.  He pushes the woman down the stairs.  They struggle.  And then the man carries her out of the view of the camera.  Witnesses saw the woman struggling to get out of the man‘s car, which is tan or light-colored and older, possibly a four-door. 

Now, take a good look at the man‘s face.  And if you have any information, any information at all on who he may be, please call the detective information desk at 877-LAWFULL.  That‘s 877-LAWFULL.

One more time, show that face, 877-LAWFULL.  That‘s the face.  Give them a call. 

Now, still more ahead in SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY.  We‘re going to take you where nobody‘s been brave enough to go before, inside the Clinton‘s marriage. 

And later, how do you spell champions?  Some kids will show you. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWS BREAK)

SCARBOROUGH:  The comeback kid and the senator from New York.  You know, there is talk that he wants the top job at the U.N. and that she‘s eying the Oval Office one more time. 

Well, my next guest offers great insight on all things Clinton, because “Washington Post” reporter John Harris covered the Clinton White House for six years.  And he‘s got—well, he‘s got the inside scoop on America‘s power couple.  And he‘s put it all in a new book called “The Survivor: Bill Clinton in the White House.”

Hey, thanks a lot for being with us tonight in SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY, John. 

JOHN HARRIS, AUTHOR, “THE SURVIVOR”:  Oh, thank you for having me. 

SCARBOROUGH:  You‘ve got to answer this question. 

Now, why write a book on Bill Clinton when most of us haven‘t even had time to finish Bill Clinton‘s autobiography? 

HARRIS:  Well, if you will allow me to be a little bit self-serving, you will get a lot more truth and a lot more reality of what really happened in the White House than Bill Clinton‘s book. 

(LAUGHTER)

HARRIS:  I don‘t mean that to disparage Bill Clinton, but I think, a lot of times, the people around him sometimes see what happened with more clarity than he was able to write about it in that 1,000-page book. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Yes.  Yours is slightly shorter than 1,000-page book.

You have so many fascinating parts of this book.  I want to read about Hillary Clinton talking about health care.  One day in 1994, the president was speaking in Massachusetts.  And you said that he would consider a 95 percent coverage of health care a victory.  But you wrote that Hillary Clinton was at the White House when she got word of what the president said.  And she furiously and quickly got on the phone and talked to him and said this: “What the ‘blank‘ are you doing up there?  You get back here right away.”

And that, of course, was according to an aide who overheard it.  But here is the kicker.  You say Bill Clinton actually retracted his 95 percent pledge. 

(LAUGHTER)

HARRIS:  He sure did. 

SCARBOROUGH:  The very next day.  That‘s remarkable.  Did Hillary Clinton really run domestic policy there? 

HARRIS:  Well, on this issue, health care, yes, she did.

And, as you well remember, Joe, but—this is important—health care was the biggest domestic debacle that the Democrats have had for generations, not just in the Clinton years.  And it‘s important to understand what went wrong in that.  Bill Clinton was desperate to cut a deal.  He‘s always somebody who will take a half-loaf and come back for more later.  At the time, Hillary Clinton said, no, look, we can‘t do that. 

Unless we get a full, comprehensive, complete plan, I‘m not compromising.  And you aren‘t either.  And, of course, what they got instead was a terrible defeat for the Democrats.  And I think what‘s important is, Hillary Clinton, for her, that was a searing experience.  And she learned that she had to change her politics.  And she, over time, has become what we know her today, which is somebody trying desperately to make sure she‘s not perceived as a sort of doctrinaire liberal, but as, in fact, a pragmatist and a centrist. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Well, you know, John, I guess a lot of people‘s take on the two, couple, I mean, the way they were different was, Hillary Clinton wouldn‘t cut deals.  She was a true believer.  Bill Clinton, though, really didn‘t have anything, didn‘t have any values that he wouldn‘t compromise away. 

Is that a bit unfair about President Clinton?  Were there some issues that he just absolutely refused to back down on? 

HARRIS:  Yes.  I certainly don‘t take that view that you described, as somebody that suggests Bill Clinton is without a core. 

The thing about Bill Clinton‘s world view, though, is that it‘s elastic enough that he can usually find ways to—that will cut the deal that are consistent with his principles he believes.  He is not somebody—and this is an important contrast with George W. Bush—who tends to see things in black and white.  Bill Clinton sees things in infinite shades of gray.  So, somebody like that can usually find a way of—of compromising. 

SCARBOROUGH:  You know, John, you also talked about his relationship with Al Gore and Tipper Gore. 

You know, when Bill Clinton was talking to the vice president, right after the Monica Lewinsky story broke, you write that the president yelled at him—quote—“This is a ‘blanking‘ coup d‘etat.”  And, of course, you went on to say that Gore just stared blankly ahead. 

Obviously, Lewinsky caused a great division between the Gores and the Clintons.  How wide was that divide by the time Al Gore ran in 2000? 

HARRIS:  By the time Al Gore ran in 200, what had once been a very close political and policy relationship—I don‘t think it was ever necessarily an especially intimate personal relationship.  But what once had been a highly productive partnership in the White House was almost a complete rupture. 

Gore was enraged by what he considered Clinton‘s reckless behavior and the problems that was causing for him, as he sought the top job of the presidency.  Clinton was incredibly frustrated.  He really did want Al Gore to become president and couldn‘t understand why it was so difficult for Gore to run on the record.  I described this conversation once between the two of them.  And he said:  Look, Al, there is not a person in America that thinks you fooled around with Monica Lewinsky. 

What he meant was, voters were more than capable of separating Clinton‘s personal indiscretion and giving Gore room to run on the policy record.  Gore simply—and his political advisers saw it differently. 

SCARBOROUGH:  Yes.  Final question, quickly. 

Do you think we‘re going to see Bill Clinton at the U.N. and Hillary Clinton back in the White House? 

HARRIS:  I think those two are almost mutually exclusive.  There is no way that you could do both. 

The U.N. is Clinton‘s dream job.  I don‘t think he‘s going to, in the end, get that.  I would be stunned if Hillary Clinton didn‘t run for president in 2008.  That‘s going to require Bill Clinton to take a somewhat lower profile.  It‘s going to require some effort on his part. 

SCARBOROUGH:  All right, John Harris, thanks a lot. 

The book‘s called “The Survivor: Bill Clinton in the White House.”  And it‘s going to be my weekend reading.  It just sounds—everything I have heard, John, this sounds like a great book, right now, at least, if not the first draft, the second draft of history.  Thanks for being with us.  Greatly appreciate it. 

Now, when we come back, they may not be drinking raw eggs, but they train like you wouldn‘t believe.  And now the National Spelling Bee contestants are getting a special honor.  We‘ll tell you what it is when SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY returns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCARBOROUGH:  Hey, make sure to start your day with a SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY morning read and see what‘s going on in SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY.  You can do it by checking out my Web site at Joe.MSNBC.com.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCARBOROUGH:  This week, in our SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY champions segment, we want to pay tribute to all 273 kids who studied and memorized and read the dictionary and practiced their way into the National Spelling Bee. 

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

(APPLAUSE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  (INAUDIBLE) Could I have the language of origin, please? 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Moussaka.  M-O-U-S-S-A-K-A.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Arytenoid.  A-R-Y-T-E-N-O-I-D. 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Rathskeller. 

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  M-E-I-S-E-N.  Meisen.

MALE:  P-O-L-I-O-R-C-E-T-I-C-S.  Poliorcetics.

(APPLAUSE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  B-R-I-C-O-L-A-G-E.  Bricolage.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  C-I-A-M. 

(APPLAUSE)

ANURAG KASHYAP, NATIONAL SPELLING BEE CHAMPION:  A-P-P-O-G-G-I-A-T-U-R-A.   

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Anurag Kashyap, you are the winner of the 78th annual Scripps Spelling Bee. 

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) 

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCARBOROUGH:  That‘s really remarkable.  Congratulations. 

Well, that‘s all the time we have for tonight.  We hope you have a great night.  I also hope you have a wonderful weekend.  We‘ll see you on Monday.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

Content and programming copyright 2005 MSNBC.  ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.  Transcription Copyright 2005 Voxant, Inc. ALL RIGHTS  RESERVED. No license is granted to the user of this material other than for research. User may not reproduce or redistribute the material except for user‘s personal or internal use and, in such case, only one copy may be printed, nor shall user use any material for commercial purposes or in any fashion that may infringe upon MSNBC and Voxant, Inc.‘s copyright or other proprietary rights or interests in the material. This is not a legal transcript for purposes of litigation.

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