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Meet the Press - June 26, 2016

Meet the Press - June 26, 2016

CHUCK TODD:

This Sunday, Brexit, Trump, and Clinton. The Brits are getting out and immigration was the main cause. What might it mean for the U.S. Presidential election this November?

DONALD TRUMP:

There was great similarities between what happened here and my campaign. People want to take this country back.

CHUCK TODD:

The consequences for Britain, Europe, and the United States.

Plus, one by one, prominent Republicans are abandoning Trump. Is it still possible the Dump Trump movement could succeed? His campaign chairman Paul Manafort is with me this morning.

Also, our brand new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll on the state of the race, how much has Trump's recent troubles cost him?

And the Veep Stakes: who's on Trump's short list for Vice President, and what about Clinton’s? I'll talk to the Senator everyone assumes is at the very top of the Clinton list, Tim Kaine of Virginia.

CHUCK TODD:

Are you qualified to be commander in chief?

CHUCK TODD:

And joining me for insight and analysis this Sunday are: historian and author Doris Kearns Goodwin, Helene Cooper of The New York Times, Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post, and Kimberly Strassel of The Wall Street Journal. Welcome to Sunday, it's Meet the Press.

ANNOUNCER:

From NBC News in Washington, this is Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.

CHUCK TODD:

Good Sunday morning. When it became clear that the Brexit vote would succeed, that the United Kingdom would get out of the E.U., one of the leaders of the Leave movement, Nigel Farage, spoke of the fight against big banks, against big parties, against big corporations, against elites, about belief in nation. And always, there was opposition to immigration. Does this sound familiar?

Echoes of the Brexit movement can be heard here in this presidential race. And both the Trump and Clinton campaigns truly believe that the Leave vote will eventually be good for their own politics. We shall see, of course. This morning, we have brand new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll numbers to release. And this shows that Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump is at five points now.

That is up two from a month ago when she led 46-43. But note, her number didn't change. It's Trump's number that actually went down. The poll of course was taken before British voters turned the world upside down, leading people on both sides of the Atlantic to ask, "What now?"

(BEGIN TAPE)

DONALD TRUMP:

I love to see people take their country back.

CHUCK TODD:

Donald Trump promoting his new luxury golf course in Scotland.

DONALD TRUMP:

Inside the lighthouse right now is incredible suites.

CHUCK TODD:

And declaring victory after the Brexit vote for both his campaign and his business.

DONALD TRUMP:

And when the pound goes down, more people are coming to Turnberry, frankly.

CHUCK TODD:

Hillary Clinton also tried to turned Britain's vote to her advantage, saying in a statement, "This time of uncertainty only underscores the need for calm, steady, experienced leadership in the White House.” The backdrop for Britain's exit from the 28-nation European Union; a populist backlash, an angry working class channeling its distrust in government, feeling left behind by globalization and searching for a scapegoat.

MALE VOTER:

Foreigners, get them out. Kick them all out.

MUJTABA RAHMAN:

There's also been a fair amount of them with immigration from the E.U. And I think that coupled with the refugee crisis really afforded the Leave campaign a very powerful narrative.

CHUCK TODD:

The Leave campaign preyed on anxieties about increased competition for resources and jobs.

NIGEL FARAGE:

We've fought against the multinationals, we have fought against the big merging banks, we've fought against big politics.

CHUCK TODD:

And it stoked immigration fears. One campaign poster even using pictures of Syrian refugees crossing into Slovenia during the migrant crisis.

MALE VOICE:

You have literally opened up the door, unconditionally, without being able to securely check anybody.

CHUCK TODD:

The words have a familiar echo.

DONALD TRUMP:

People want to see borders. They don't necessarily want people pouring into their country that they don't know who they are and where they come from.

CHUCK TODD:

So, could a U.K.-style retrenchment happen here? At an Annenberg focus group this week in Pittsburgh, working-class voters found reasons to like Trump.

FEMALE VOTER:

We've been lied to for so long. You know, so what he doesn't want Muslims, per se, that are terrorists in the country. Then I'm glad he is saying it, because I don't want them in there either.

CHUCK TODD:

But Democrats believe what happened in Britain won't happen here.

AUSTAN GOOLSBEE:

Just remember, there's a lot more immigrants, people of color, et cetera, in the U.S.

JOE BIDEN:

The vast majority of the American people do not agree with Donald Trump's xenophobia or, look, we've gone through these periods before, but we always come out the other side.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

And joining me now is David Milliband. He's the former British foreign secretary, and he currently is President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, which does work on behalf of refugees. In fact, the last time, Mr. Milliband, you were on this show, we were talking about the refugee crisis, and I want to talk about that later in this interview. But let me begin with obviously the Brexit. Why should Americans care about what happened in the U.K. last week?

DAVID MILLIBAND:

I think there are two reasons why this matters. First of all, obviously the economic links between the U.S. and the U.K. are significant: our biggest foreign investors and a very significant partnership. But the second and more important reason probably is that for the last 70 years, the U.K. and the U.S. have been real partners in building international stability and security. And the great danger now after this Brexit vote is that while the friendship will remain between the U.K. and the U.S., the partnership doesn't have the same kind of influence or drive. And that's what worries many of us.

CHUCK TODD:

Is there any upside for the U.K. in leaving the E.U. in your opinion? I know you were an advocate of staying, but do you see any upside of leaving?

DAVID MILLIBAND:

From my point of view, the economics short term and medium term are very dangerous. This was branded Project Fear by the Leave campaign, but actually it was Project Fact. That investment in the U.K. is significantly driven by our access to the European single market. I think secondly there's obviously a major danger for the integrity of the United Kingdom.

The Scottish devolved parliament, which is part of the U.K., has signaled that they want to have a further referendum on Scotland's place in the U.K. And thirdly, when Vladimir Putin is cheering, then you know you've got a problem in the international system. And any division in Europe, especially at a time of major international challenge is obviously a real danger.

CHUCK TODD:

So you don't see any upside? There is no one upside at all about this, in your opinion?

DAVID MILLIBAND:

I mean, all of us who are patriotic Brits will want the new government when it comes in-- because obviously the Prime Minister has resigned-- we will want the new government as well as possible, to negotiate the best possible deal. But the current British Foreign Secretary has said over the last couple of days that the Leave campaign were arguing both for access to the European single market and for massive reductions in migration within the European Union, of other Europeans working. You can't have both. And I think he's right to say that. And so that's why while we're patriotic and we want the new government to negotiate the best possible deal, we have deep fears about what this means.

CHUCK TODD:

There's been some calls for parliament to ignore. This is not a binding referendum yet. And you could argue it doesn't ever have to be binding. Obviously, that could be politically risky for Parliament to do that, but do you advocate that?

DAVID MILLIBAND:

Well, the people have spoken. So I think it's very hard to go down that line. I think that for Americans, it's worth understanding that this referendum was really an up or down vote on the European institutions, which are at best unloved and undervalued, and in some ways derided.

I mean, there's been 20 years of very poisonous attacks on the European Union. The current issue was immigration from other European countries into the U.K. And so in an up or down vote on an institution that is unloved, in a way it's not surprising that you get a downvote. The trouble is you have to live with the consequences. And I always say to people, "Populism is popular until it gets elected. And then it has to make decisions.” And that's when the trouble starts.

CHUCK TODD:

You know, the last time you were on this show, we were talking about the Syrian migrant crisis. And you were on this show advocating for America to do more, to take more of these refugees in. Obviously the pictures of migrants flooding into parts of Europe were used in the Leave-- successfully it appears-- in the Leave campaign. Is there a direct line between instability in Syria and the Brexit in your view?

DAVID MILLIBAND:

I think that the failure of the European Union to construct an adequate response to the Middle Eastern refugee crisis, alongside the continuing travails of the Euro meant that there was a really difficult backdrop. I mean, the European institutions were seen to be struggling to master the challenges that were being presented to them.

And that presented a very difficult backdrop. As I said earlier, the major immigration issue was about Poles, and Bulgarians, and Romanians, other European countries coming to the U.K., contributing I have to say. The unemployment rate among Poles in Britain is lower than the unemployment rate among Brits, which itself is very low at five percent on the American level.

But the backdrop of the refugee crisis certainly colored this situation. Obviously for the U.S., you're in a very different situation because the blessings of geography mean that you can pick and choose which Syrian refugees you want unlike in Europe where over probably three quarters of a million people have arrived across the Aegean Sea in smuggled rafts and boats.

CHUCK TODD:

Let me ask you this. There is already now a petition, over three million have signed it, for a re-vote, for a new referendum. This passed only 52-48. We've seen the stories about the number one Googled question among Brits is, "What is the E.U.?” post-Brexit vote. Which is obviously a little alarming probably for you and some others. Would you support a new referendum?

DAVID MILLIBAND:

I think it's premature to be talking about that at this stage. It is terrifying that people have voted to leave an institution and are then suffering buyer's remorse within 48 hours. But I think that one has to respect the process and the result, however misguided the way in which it was launched. And I think the challenge now is for Britain to show that the common sense, the practicality, the sense of purpose that has traditionally been associated with us is continued and carried through.

CHUCK TODD:

Did President Obama make a mistake by getting involved in the campaign?

DAVID MILLIBAND:

I don't think so. I think he did his responsibility really. For the leader of the Western world to come and say, "Look, you're an important partner of ours. The friendship is always there, but the partnership is magnified and multiplied by your membership with the European Union." I think he spoke the truth. And my sense is that while in the end, his voice was drowned out by the clamor around immigration in the last week or two of the campaign, I don't think it will be right to blame him for coming, because I think that he did the responsible thing.

CHUCK TODD:

And very quickly, politics is in turmoil in the U.K. right now. Both major political parties in upheaval. Nobody knows frankly who the heck's in charge. Let me ask you this. Are you open to being drafted back as a party leader, going back into parliament and leading the Labor Party?

DAVID MILLIBAND:

That's very flattering of you, but our system doesn't work like that. And I'm leaving it to my parliamentary colleagues who have big decisions--

CHUCK TODD:

You have no interest in going back to Parliament?

DAVID MILLIBAND:

--big decisions on the Labor side about how to do this. And obviously there's a Conservative leadership election, without any declared candidates yet. And I think we'll have to leave it to those who are elected representatives, and I'll get on with my job.

CHUCK TODD:

All right. David Milliband, thanks for coming on the show, sharing your perspective--

DAVID MILLIBAND:

Thank you very much.

CHUCK TODD:

Much appreciated.

CHUCK TODD:

Well, let's get right to the panel. Helene Cooper, Pentagon correspondent for the New York Times. Kimberley Strassel, columnist for The Wall Street Journal and author of the new book The Intimidation Game. We are going to let her speak freely here on it and intimidate her. (LAUGHTER)

KIMBERLEY STRASSEL:

Thank you.

CHUCK TODD:

Historian and author Doris Kearns Goodwin, who we could plug, if we were plugging books for you, we'd be here for the entire hour. And Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post. Doris, you're the historian. Put this in some perspective for us.

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN:

Well, I think Cameron made a Faustian bargain when he decided that he thought he needed the far-right vote to win that election. He won it big anyway, and he promised to bring up this referendum. And now what's going to happen to him? He's lost his prime ministership, he's lost his legacy, Britain may fall apart and not become the Great Britain.

Churchill must be dying in his grave right now. And he did it to himself. I mean, the leaders of both parties were not able to reach the people, which shows that something's wrong with the leadership, maybe in the countries in general. They didn't argue passionately enough, they didn't emotionally connect to the people who felt that something was wrong in their mired unemployment. And when you have that inability to see other people's point of view, when you have lack of empathy, when you have lack of sides seeing each other, something goes wrong in a country. And I think it's a pretty scary phenomena.

CHUCK TODD:

Helene, the administration's response, the Obama administration, has been quite muted. They don't know how to react. I know John Kerry's headed over to Brussels, I think tomorrow. What does America do now?

HELENE COOPER:

I think they were shocked. And so you saw that on Friday in President Obama's remarks afterwards. You heard a lot, I mean, the tweets and the press releases started coming in slowly on Friday morning. And yes, and basically all that the administration said is, "Britain is going to be, continue to be our number-one ally and so is, and the European Union will be our ally as well, and relationship-- the historic relationship-- will continue." But nobody really expected that this vote was going to end up with the Leave camp. And so you hear this phrase of “uncharted territory,” and I think you really are seeing that.

KIMBERLY STRASSEL:

But you have to ask if the President didn't overplay his hand here. I heard Milliband say, "Well, he did his duty." In fact, if you look at what happened in England, this started out as a kind of liberty/freedom thing. By the end, it had become something very different. It was the public rebuking a political class that told them, "No, you cannot leave. You cannot do this."

I mean, look at the numbers. I think there was only about a quarter of Conservative party members who supported leaving. Only about a tenth of the Labor party. So this was the entire establishment coming together saying, "You can't go." And their foreign leader saying, "You can't go," and they said, "Oh really? Watch us."

CHUCK TODD:

That's what just struck me about how Doris just described this, she's sitting there and going like, "You're describing America right now." About the two parties.

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

What's fascinating is you see not only the Conservative's Prime Minister step down, now the Labor leader isn't sure. It's fascinating because--

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah, both parties are in turmoil now.

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

We always have a tendency to assume, "Well, one party up, other party down." Right, it's the nature of our politics. But this is a both parties down. Which in truth, we've seen. We have the two least popular presidential nominees in modern history, right?

But large numbers of people don't want to vote for either of these people, and there is, to Kimberly's point, there's an anti-elite, anti-party structures. That is the one weird bipartisan agreement we have in this country. People don't like the people who represent them.

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN:

You know, and yet, our democracy is a Republic that depends on leadership. You know, I mean, we weren't built as a direct democracy. The founders wanted to have some filter between the people's general feelings and some people in there who supposedly have wisdom to shape choices for us. We don't believe in those people anymore. And that's a real problem for our Republic right now.

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

Can I just very quickly on Doris’ leadership point? I was really struck by this. So Trump is in Scotland, and they ask him about the Brexit vote. And he says, "Well, Cameron's got to go because he didn't channel the will of the public right." And Boris Johnson got it right, which is a fascinating conception of what leadership and politicians should do.

CHUCK TODD:

What is your definition of leadership? Right.

HELENE COOPER:

Exactly. I would caution though a little bit about drawing too many parallels between what happened in Britain and what is going on in the United States, because these are, at the end of the day, as similar as we are to the Brits, more similar to the Brits than we are to anybody else in Europe-- these are two fundamentally different electorates and two fundamentally different countries. And the United States looks a lot more like London than it does like Little Whinging or little England or anywhere else that voted to leave.

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN:

In fact, London already felt itself as a multicultural place, as a future. This is our life. And that's what we feel much more as a country here as a whole.

KIMBERLY STRASSEL:

And even if you listen to a lot of the leaders that were in favor of Brexit, and those that were actively campaigning for it, they weren't doing so in an isolationist way. I mean, these are people who actually want Britain to again have the freedom to build its own trade deals. They want to embrace Europe, but on their own terms. And I think that that is different than what you have heard Donald Trump talking about in terms of his own idea of making America great again.

CHUCK TODD:

Both campaigns think this helps them. Are they right, very quickly Kimberly?

KIMBERLY STRASSEL:

Look, I think that there is an aspect where Trump is going to try and take the issues that were important in England and transfer them back here and say the same thing is happening.

CHUCK TODD:

Clinton though has to learn a lesson here.

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

Absolutely, which is, I mean, if she hasn't yet, I'd be somewhat surprised, which is 16 people learned that lesson in the Republican primary. The rules that dictated what people wanted in their presidential nominees would have made Jeb Bush the Republican nominee. He did everything down by-- it's the opposite of Jeb Bush-- I mean, literally, you look at the opposite of Jeb Bush, it's Donald Trump.

So I'd be stunned if they haven't, but yes, they absolutely showed distrust of elites, distrust in institutions. The one thing that she can never get away from is from 1991, at least, until today, she has been at the forefront of the leadership.

CHUCK TODD:

The establishment.

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

And she is the status quo.

CHUCK TODD:

All right. We'll pause it there. As we've seen, Donald Trump celebrated the Brexit vote as good for the U.K., good for the U.S., and good for him at the same time. Well, one by one, prominent Republicans continue to abandon the Trump ship. When we come back, we're going to talk to Trump's campaign chairman Paul Manafort and ask about Brexit and all sorts of issues there.

And later, the veepstakes. Everybody's got a theory on who the leading candidates are on both sides. I'm going to talk to the man who many believe is at the very top of the Hillary Clinton list, Tim Kaine of Virginia.

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. Time for a little pop news quiz. What do these three people, former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft, former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, and columnist George Will have in common? They're all Republicans, and they all have rejected Donald Trump this week. Scowcroft and Paulson went as far as to endorse Hillary Clinton.

And Will, one of the more influential voices of the Republican establishment for decades, says he's no longer a Republican and is advocating for Trump to lose. It's a reminder that while Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee, he is presumptive because he's not yet the nominee.

There is still strong resistance within the party and that anything could happen in Cleveland next month. In fact, as we saw last week with the Cavaliers, Cleveland is already full of a few surprises. Joining me now from Southhampton, New York, is the chairman of the Trump campaign, the head coach, if you will, Paul Manafort. Mr. Manafort, welcome back to the show, sir.

PAUL MANAFORT:

Thank you, Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

Let me start with Brexit. What I want to know is whether Donald Trump believes what happened in the U.K. is in the best interest of the United States. He said it was good for the U.K., and I understand that. But does he believe what happened is in the best interest to the United States?

PAUL MANAFORT:

Well, you have to understand what happened there. What happened with Brexit was people taking back control. I mean, they get the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and Strasbourg who have ruled and told the Brits how to live and making promises for them that their lives would get better and talking about a future based on globalism versus family and individual and local community.

That's what Brexit was all about. And the reality is, those are the same issues that cause the angst in America today. And this election, in 2016, where Donald Trump is the only change agent, is set up perfectly on those same themes, because Hillary Clinton is the epitome of the establishment. She's been in power for 25 years.

And the issues, the promises that globalism is the solution, the promise that government's going to make your life better if you just give up your freedoms, the promises that we know better than you on how to make your lives better, have been rejected. That's what Donald Trump has identified, that's what Brexit identified, and that's what's going to be the basis for the election in 2016.

CHUCK TODD:

I understand that. But you didn't get at the core part of the question I asked. Does he believe that what happened with Brexit and what it could lead to, was in the best interest of the United States?

PAUL MANAFORT:

Obviously, people feeling that their government is responsive to them is in the best interest of the United States. It's in the best interest of the U.K., it's in the best interest of countries all over the world. And as far as the ability of the United States to work with the U.K., I was interested to hear Mr. Milliband, he's part of the establishment.

He's the Hillary Clinton of Britain. He was just rejected in the results of the Brexit vote. So for him to say with total arrogance that we know better, even though we lost, than the people of Britain, that's exactly the arrogance that Donald Trump is talking about and that Hillary Clinton represents and is going to be the basis for the campaign this fall.

CHUCK TODD:

I want to get you to react, the Clinton campaign is out this morning with a Brexit-related TV ad that hits Mr. Trump. Here it is and I want to get you to react on the other side.

(BEGIN TAPE)

NARRATOR:

Every president is tested by world events. But Donald Trump thinks about how his golf resort can profit from them.

DONALD TRUMP:

When the pound goes down, more people are coming to Turnberry.

NARRATOR:

In a volatile world, the last thing we need is a volatile president.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

It obviously picks up on what was a head-scratching event earlier this week, Mr. Manafort. Which is on the day of the biggest news event in the world, he is in the country at the heart of this and he's promoting a golf course.

PAUL MANAFORT:

This is an example, again, of the tone-deafness of the Clinton campaign. First of all, when you look at what was happening in the Clinton campaign over the last month, they have spent $60 million against Donald Trump on ads like this, talking about things that are totally distracting--distractive and unconnected to what's going on in the American political system.

The American people care about what is going to happen to their lives, about change. And the issues of Brexit, this kind of phony ad doesn't address those things. And Hillary Clinton is ignoring the reality because she's part of the establishment. She can't get away from the fact that she is part of the problem that's being rejected.

So when she tries to distract with commercials like this, she's once again showing that she is absolutely afraid of the consequences of what Brexit represented and what the Trump phenomenon in the primaries represented, which is historic numbers of people voting for change against the establishment.

CHUCK TODD:

But why was it appropriate for Mr. Trump to be promoting a golf course on the day of what frankly could be the most impactful decision that a country has made that impacts, you know, the global community in a way that we are not fully comprehending yet, and he's promoting a golf course in the middle of his campaign?

PAUL MANAFORT:

First of all, Mr. Trump is an international businessman. His success as an international businessman and a person who gets things done is one of the attractions of his candidacy, so that when he says he's going to bring real change to the country, voters believe him. Unlike Mrs. Clinton, who has been saying that for 25 years and in those 25 years, the only changes that have happened have made people's lives worse.

CHUCK TODD:

Donald Trump said something else yesterday during his tour of Scotland. He said that he hasn't begun his campaign. Well, the Clinton campaign has begun. What is the status of your campaign? I say this, obviously Corey Lewandowski was fired earlier this week. I guess there's more command and control for you. But explain, is this campaign started yet or not for the Trump campaign?

PAUL MANAFORT:

First of all, Corey Lewandowski was a part of an historic victory. And Donald Trump recognized that. But the campaign has now transitioned to a new phase. We're now in the general election mode of the campaign. In that mode, last week Mr. Trump laid out in his speech that had prepared remarks, the stakes of the election, what he sees as what is at stake between Hillary Clinton and the establishment and his change agenda.

Our campaign frankly is getting organized. It's all in words I guess, but we are fully now integrated with the Republican National Committee. This week we'll be making some major announcements of people who are taking over in major positions in our national campaign as well as in our state campaigns.

We're organized in all 16 states that we're going to be targeting as battleground states. We'll be making those announcements this week. The campaign is a process. And a lot of what we've been doing over the last several weeks has not been different in the public--

CHUCK TODD:

Do you acknowledge that you're behind?

PAUL MANAFORT:

I'm sorry?

CHUCK TODD:

Do you acknowledge that you're behind both organizationally and in the polls?

PAUL MANAFORT:

No, I think because what you're trying to do is comparing an 800-person organization in Brooklyn of Mrs. Clinton's with an integrated system of the R.N.C. and the Trump campaign, which doesn't appear on an F.E.C. report. We have hundreds, we have actually thousands of people in the battleground states, political organizers who are now in place, we have state organizations that are in place, we have our campaign plans in place, we have our budgets in place.

And the good thing is, we have a candidate who doesn't need to figure out what's going on in order to say what he wants to do. So our campaign is organized. We're ready, we're going to have a good convention, and we're confident that we are not behind the Clinton campaign. They're muscle-bound. We're not.

CHUCK TODD:

Very quickly, Dr. James Dobson, a long-time evangelical leader has said that very recently, Donald Trump accepted a relationship with Christ and that he is now a “baby Christian”, that within the last few weeks, he became a born-again Christian. What can you tell me about that? And is that a fair way to describe him? Is he now an evangelical Christian? Is that the way to describe Donald Trump's faith?

PAUL MANAFORT:

I'm not going to speak to Donald Trump and his embrace of religion. You talk to him about that. I will say, however, that the evangelical leaders that have been a part of the Christian movement in the United States came together last week and showed overwhelming support for Mr. Trump. And frankly, in my 40 years in politics, I've never seen such a broad-based or base of support within that community for one candidate.

PAUL MANAFORT:

It's never been this united.

CHUCK TODD:

Is Dr. James Dobson right or wrong? Is Donald Trump recently converted to born-again Christianity?

PAUL MANAFORT:

Again, you have to talk to Mr. Trump about his embrace in Christianity. That's not for me to speak to.

CHUCK TODD:

All right.

PAUL MANAFORT:

What I can speak to is that Christians across this country and the leadership of the Christian movement and the evangelical movement are broadly united for Mr. Trump and his campaign.

CHUCK TODD:

All right. Paul Manafort, joining us this morning from Long Island. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.

PAUL MANAFORT:

Thank you, Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

When we come back, how the Trump campaign has been very good for business, Donald Trump's business, that is. And later, what if some U.S. states decided to make their own run for the Brexit? What would we call it? Flo-Riddance anyone? We'll be right back.

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back to this week's Data Download. Donald Trump's campaign may have all sorts of problems. But one thing we know, it's been good for business, his business. Trump's campaign spends liberally at Trump-owned properties and businesses, according to the F.E.C. So let's take a look at where the money specifically has been going, and keep in mind, all of this is perfectly legal.

We'll start with Eric Trump's businesses, the Trump campaign paid nearly $5,000 to Eric Trump's wine manufacturing. It spent over $91,000 to rent out three different Trump golf clubs in Florida for events. $136,000 to Trump restaurants, including Trump Grill and Trump Café in Trump Tower. Over $420,000 to rent Trump's Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida. That also doubles as his vacation home. There's been more than $430,000 of Trump campaign money spent on rent at the Trump Tower. Of course, it's his Fifth Avenue skyscraper that does double as Trump's campaign headquarters.

And of course, the biggest expense of all has been $4.6 million the campaign has paid to Tag Air, which is the name of Trump's private airline. All told, the campaign has spent over $6 million at Trump-owned businesses, out of about $63 million spent through the end of May.

So 10% of all campaign spending has gone back to Trump or Trump-affiliated businesses. Again, none of what Trump is doing is illegal. In fact, Trump says he wished he didn't have to pay to use his own properties, but he's required to by law. Still, as the AP noted this week, businessman Steve Forbes and Michael Bloomberg both log off their campaigns from their own companies.

And of course, he was in Scotland this week not to talk Brexit, but to open a new Trump facility. When we come back, the man many see as the leading candidate to be Hillary Clinton's running mate, Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia.

* * *COMMERCIAL BREAK* * *

(BEGIN TAPE)

SEN. JOHN McCAIN:

The next vice president of the United States--

SEN. BARACK OBAMA:

The next president--the next vice president of the United States of America --

GOV. MITT ROMNEY:

The next president of the United States, Paul Ryan.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. As you can see, perhaps the most important decision a presidential candidate makes before taking office is the choice of a running mate. But maybe some of them need to remember they’re picking a vice president, not a president.

Well anyway, right now at or near the top of everyone’s list for possible running mates for Hillary Clinton is Tim Kaine. He’s the current senator and former governor of Virginia. I spoke with him Friday and I began by asking him to respond to what Donald Trump said about the Brexit

(BEGIN TAPE)

DONALD TRUMP:

"People want to take their country back. They want to have independence, in a sense. And you see it with Europe, all over Europe.

"You're going to have, I think, many other cases where they want to take their borders back, they want to take their monetary back, they want to take a lot of things back. They want to be able to have a country again. So I think you're going to have this happen more and more. I really believe that. And I think it's happening in the United States. It's happening by the fact that I've done so well in the polls."

CHUCK TODD:

Do you think he's right that there's a parallel?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

Well, Trump finishes with the real punchline, "Why I've done so well." It's always got to be about him. And you saw, the other thing you said was he said, "Hey, the British pound is taking a beating now. That could help my hotel out. Your loss, Britain, is my gain." This is a guy who will always put himself first. So of course he's going to interpret it about, "Here's why I've done well."

CHUCK TODD:

Okay, but what's your take?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

My take is this.

CHUCK TODD:

What is this about?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

There's a couple things you've got to understand. Young voters, those under 50, especially millennials, overwhelmingly voted to stay. And it was older voters who voted to leave. And certainly immigration issues are important and a concern about some of the European regulation, et cetera. It's a huge deal. It really is. And the important thing for us is because the relationship with Britain has been so strong, and we're so close to European nations, we have to help them find a path over the next couple years to do this in a way that can keep ties rather than tear ties apart.

CHUCK TODD:

Are you in favor of an assault weapons ban?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

Here, I have voted for it, but I think there's a better way to go at the problem. And that is limitations on the size of magazines and ammunition clips. Here's the challenge.

CHUCK TODD:

Do you think an AR-15 should be sold?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

Here's the fact--

CHUCK TODD:

You don't think there should be a limitation on the selling--

SEN. TIM KAINE:

I had voted for it and I would likely vote for it again. But here's a practical problem that I think you're aware of. As soon as you define what an assault weapon is, you know, you can't sell a weapon, and here's how we describe it, gun manufacturers just make one adjustment or two, and they say, "See, this isn't subject to the limitation." Whereas if you say, “You can't sell an ammunition clip or a magazine that would have more than ten or 12 rounds…” That is a very straightforward--

CHUCK TODD:

You believe ammunition is the way to go?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

I really think that's probably the way to tackle the problem more effectively.

CHUCK TODD:

Are you qualified to be commander in chief?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

You know what, nobody should ever say they're ready for that responsibility because it is so huge.

CHUCK TODD:

What does that mean when you hear that question? What do you think that means? What should go into being qualified?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

I don't know. I mean, you know, Abraham Lincoln wouldn't have said yes to that question, Harry Truman wouldn't have said yes to that question. Those are my two favorite presidents. I am doing my best to be a good senator. I came in saying that -- you know, I replaced Jim Webb -- and always said, "Look, I can't replace Jim Webb, 'cause I’m not sure that’s possible.” I'm going to try to be a good successor. And taking on the armed services and foreign relations responsibilities, I'm trying to be a good successor.

CHUCK TODD:

You're somebody that speaks out and you're not afraid to criticize this President. You've criticized him when it comes to, you know, declaring war, that what he's done with ISIL should be codified by Congress--

SEN. TIM KAINE:

Although I’ve criticized Congress more, but him too.

CHUCK TODD:

Absolutely. Would you be comfortable having to sell somebody else's position if they don't agree with you on, for instance, the definition of war powers?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

You know, like a lot of people, I have been a leader in some things and I've been a follower in some things. So I was a lieutenant governor to Mark Warner, I was a Democratic National Committee Chair to President Obama. So when I've mayor, governor, or senator, I've been the main guy. But, you know, whether it's in my, you know, in my church with the parish council or in other areas, I know how to work on a team. And most of life, frankly, to get things done you have to get done, you've got to work as a team.

CHUCK TODD:

When you go through this process, you went through it eight years ago, I know you don't want to talk about what you're going through now. But is it a two-way interview? Is it a two-way process? Don't you have questions?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

Yeah, don't use the word "process." There’s-- people will speculate, but I've got one job and one job only right now. And that is to work hard for Hillary Clinton so she can win, and especially in Virginia. That's the area where I've been helping her and that's the area where I’m gonna help her.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, let me ask you this, if she asks you to help her in some form or another, whatever the position is, what's your question to her before you accept.

SEN. TIM KAINE:

Well, look. The reason I'm helping Hillary; I encouraged her to run in May of 2014. Because I could telescope forward and see some of the challenges that this nation would be facing. And I decided that by reason of character, by reason of background and experience, but also especially by reason of results, she would be the most qualified person to be president in January of 2017. And so I've answered the questions that I need answered. And that's why I’ve been working so hard for her.

CHUCK TODD:

Really? There is no other assurance you would need before you would accept doing anything?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

I have done my homework. I have done my homework knowing--

CHUCK TODD:

You've vetted her?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

I have done my homework about what I think this country needs right now. And, you know, everybody-- we've got a nation of 300-plus million people and I am absolutely confident she is the right person to tackle the huge challenges that are ahead of us.

CHUCK TODD:

You know, when you first ran as Lieutenant Governor, you were classified as a pro-life Democrat. You're now not considered a pro-life Democrat. How would you describe your abortion position?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

You know, I would say, people use labels all the time. But I'm kind of a, look, traditional Catholic. I don't like it personally. I'm opposed to abortion. And personally I'm opposed to the death penalty.

CHUCK TODD:

Are there regulations that should be on abortion?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

But let me continue. I deeply believe, and not just as a matter of politics, but even as a matter of morality, that matters about reproduction and intimacy and relationships and contraception are in the personal realm. They're moral decisions for individuals to make for themselves. And the last thing we need is government intruding into those personal decisions.

So I've taken a position which is quite common among Catholics. I've got a personal feeling about abortion, but the right role for government is to let women make their own decisions. So for example, you know Monday, the Supreme Court is likely to decide a really important case about abortion rights, which is many states, including Virginia, have tried to basically take out the Constitutional right that gives women the ability to choose by putting these onerous regulations on clinics, health clinics, where abortions are provided. We fought those off in Virginia when I was governor because you've got to let people make their own moral choices when it comes to matter of reproduction, intimacy, and relationships.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, a lot of people are writing about you right now in American politics. And there seems to be a theme--

SEN. TIM KAINE:

Don't believe the hype. Don’t believe the hype

CHUCK TODD:

Well, all right. "Kaine is as boring as he is safe." "Kaine is also considered kind of, well, boring," after they talk about, "He has a deep resume, well-tested political skills... But he's not anybody's idea of exploding volcano of charisma."

SEN. TIM KAINE:

Ha-ha!

CHUCK TODD:

That might be my favorite description here, “you lack an exploding volcano of charisma.” Are these critiques or compliments to you?

SEN. TIM KAINE:

I mean, they're true. I am boring. But--

CHUCK TODD:

Okay.

SEN. TIM KAINE:

But boring is the fastest-growing demographic in this country.

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah. So there you go. Well, Tim Kaine, you have a sense of humor as well.

SEN. TIM KAINE:

Thanks Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

Thanks for coming. Appreciate it.

SEN. TIM KAINE:

Yeah, good to be with you.

CHUCK TODD:

You got it.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

Well there you go, we like to think we’re never boring here. And of course, Tim Kaine is just one of the names being thrown around for the possible veep spot. When we come back, we’re going to look at the leading contenders right now in both campaigns.

And then, this question. What if some states decided to make their own run for the Brexits from the United States? Did someone say Ore-gone? Well, we’ve got some of the best names we could find, coming up.

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. Panel is back. All right Doris, Tim Kaine, is that a future Vice President? What did you think?

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN:Well this is when we who know nothing say something and the people who know things say nothing, right?

CHUCK TODD:

Well, there you go, goodbye. Turn it off. There it is. We’re done.

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN:

Well, if she wants to double down on experience and her strengths, than he’s got it in a certain sense. Mayor, senator, governor, DNC chairman, and somebody who can govern if something happens to her and he could clearly be President. The question is, if she wants to be a change agent now when we’re talking about post-Brexit, then perhaps you put a Latino in and then you’ve got the first woman ever and the first Latino ever and you’re making history. Or if you want to appeal to the ideology you look to Sherrod or you look to Elizabeth Warren. They say she won’t want Warren because she doesn’t like the chemistry of them -- I say chemistry be damned, you want to win that White House, you want to be in the Oval Office, who cares whether you get along or not.

CHUCK TODD:

So says the LBJ biographer over here.

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN:

Right.

KIMBERLY STRASSEL:

See, I don’t even know if it should come down to kind of a minority question or a demographic. This, I think for Hillary Clinton, look, what was her biggest problem in the primary? Bernie voters. OK, and they didn’t like her because they didn’t feel that she was to the left enough. I don’t know how you then go and choose Tim Kaine as your running mate. I think that, look, there are polls out there showing that there are about 25 percent of people who voted for Bernie Sanders saying that they would rather vote for Donald Trump than her.

CHUCK TODD:

You know Helene, there’s something else here that both of them just got at. And your paper today got at this, which is there's something about Brexit that should have Hillary nervous, right, because she's not a change agent. She is campaigning for status quo. And in some ways, what you just described of Tim Kaine, Doris, is also status quo. This is a challenge for her, isn't it?

HELENE COOPER:

It absolutely is. But you can't forget that Time Kaine brings Virginia with him. And that's huge, and that's a state that's in play and that's, you know--

CHUCK TODD:

It’s about winning.

HELENE COOPER:

It's also about winning. But I've always, I kind of agree with Kim. I always liked the idea of Hillary and Elizabeth Warren, because I like the idea of doubling down on the female vote and just going for it, because you do bring in the Bernie voters that way. And Tim Kaine does seem safe. So, you know, it’s like-- I don't know about the Castro thing though.

CHUCK TODD:

Elizabeth Warren, by the way, look, Elizabeth Warren, I think The New York Times eviscerated her lack of-- you know, she's not a very transparent person with the press. She runs away from the press actively.

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

Doesn’t like the press.

HELENE COOPER:

And the administration doesn’t like her--

CHUCK TODD:

Right. Hillary Clinton gets criticized for being inaccessible. Elizabeth Warren would make her look like the most accessible president since Andrew Jackson.

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

You know Chuck, I also think that if the Republicans need a way to unify, and they quite clearly do, and Donald Trump is struggling with it, Hillary Clinton is helpful in that regard to Donald Trump. Elizabeth Warren on the ticket is even more helpful, because those are the two people that Republicans hate the most, if you put them on the ticket. The other thing I would say, where is the problem that Donald Trump has had raising money?

Wall Street, major donors. Who hates Elizabeth Warren more than anything? I mean, you talk to any Wall Street types and you mention the name-- eye roll, groan. Much more so than Hillary and much more so frankly even than Bernie, because she's more of a high-profile person than he was at the start of the campaign.

CHUCK TODD:

Let's quickly talk Trump running mates. Because this is a more difficult --qe know what he needs, but what he needs--

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

What he needs and what he wants--

CHUCK TODD:

You know, a rounding and a softening--

HELENE COOPER:

What he needs won’t have him!

CHUCK TODD:

What he needs, right, a Nikki Haley or a Condi Rice, you know, and he doesn't want that either. He's afraid of looking like he's pandering. So he doesn't want to pick what they've been described as “identity politics.” And if you look, the short list is four white guys. Chris Christie, John Thune, Bob Corker, Rick Scott. Kimberly?

KIMBERLY STRASSEL:

Well, right. Because what he needs, just to verbalize, is he needs experience. I mean, and you can bet, take it to the bank, that that is what Donald Trump, if his campaign advisors have anything to say with it at the end, will choose as the Vice Presidential pick. Because he needs the country. Look, what is Hillary Clinton going to hit him on every day from now until the election? Is that he's not stable, he can't be trusted.

CHUCK TODD:

Right, he can’t do this--

KIMBERLY STRASSEL:

And so the basis of his campaign needs to be providing that balance to himself.

CHUCK TODD:

But Doris, he needs one other thing he's got to be careful of here. He can't upset conservatives right before this convention, which already looks like it could. It doesn't take much to light a fire at this convention against him.

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN:

No question. I mean, there is still a worry that maybe something will happen or a desire on the part of some Republicans that something will happen. So it has to be a conservative. The interesting thing is he had once floated on the idea of a military leader as his partner. But then he said, "It doesn't matter because I'm going to be so good at national security, I won't need that guy."

CHUCK TODD:

Hey, George Will’s resignation from the Republican party, you know, a lot of our viewers have been reading George Will for years. It's probably shocking them this morning. Does it matter?

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

No. And because the intellectual elite of the Republican party, of which George Will is a card-carrying member--

CHUCK TODD:

Darn Wall Street Journal editorial page. You elitists over there, right?

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

Breaking news, the intellectual piece of the Republican party isn't thrilled with Donald Trump, right? For the average Trump voter, or even someone who's moderately interested in Donald Trump, frankly, the idea that George Will is not for him will make them even more convinced. The problem is how big is that group, big enough to win the Republican primary? Big enough to win a general election? Not yet.

CHUCK TODD:

The only thing I will say that this stuff does hurt him, the echo-chamber effect.

KIMBERLY STRASSEL:

Well, yeah, I mean, look, the whole problem that Donald Trump has at the moment is a vast division within the Republican party. Look, he barely won, he did get 50 percent in the end. But there are significant numbers of average voters, too, who are very skeptical of Donald Trump.

CHUCK TODD:

A majority of Republicans in our poll would prefer another nominee. Okay? They know they're not going to get it, but a majority would prefer that.

KIMBERLY STRASSEL:

And that's why this convention is still going to be very interesting in terms of--

CHUCK TODD:

Yes, it will. All right let's take a quick pause, because I have a fascinating poll question to share with you on the other side. We'll be back in 45 seconds with End Game and a little bit of fun that we're having here. If your state decided to make its own Brexit, what would you call it? We'll be right back.

ANNOUNCER:

Coming up, Meet the Press End Game. Brought to you by Boeing. Building the future one century at a time.

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. End game time. You know, one of the other big stories, domestically, was this House sit-in on gun legislation. I just saw you look -- like, “oh my god, did that happen this week, too?”

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

I was up until 2:30 in the morning for that one.

CHUCK TODD:

And that was only Wednesday, I believe, if I can keep track of my days.

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

Yes, early Wednesday morning.

CHUCK TODD:

We have a -- look at this gun question here in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. We ask, and it’s a question we ask 20 years ago and a question today, restricting gun rights will the government go too far or not far enough? 50 percent believes the government right now will go too far, 47 percent not enough. Now this is a trend question we’ve done for years. In June of ‘95, basically when the whole first debate about the assault weapons ban took place -- look at that. 58 percent back then were worried that we wouldn’t go far enough. We’ve had fewer gun laws since then, Kimberley Strassel, and yet the public’s perception has changed.

KIMBERLEY STRASSEL:

Yeah, there are more gun owners out there and less trust in government. Less trust in government --

CHUCK TODD:

Combine the two, there you go.

KIMBERLEY STRASSEL:

--the right way. And I think that’s why this debate was a little bit silly this week, too. Just because, you know, you have Democrats doing this sit in saying you’ve got to put in this No Fly List, for example. You know, the truth is what nobody wants to talk about, is the country needs to do everything it can to be sure that weapons of any sort don’t get into the hands of terrorists as long as we can protect due process rights. But the reality is there are millions and millions of rifles out there already, and a hardened terrorist is going to be able to go get one unless some Democrat wants to go and say, “we need to go out and collect them all and round them up.” Which no one will do. Which is politically suicidal. Then this is not the answer to it.

CHUCK TODD:

Doris, what did you make of this week’s events by Democrats?

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN:

Well, I think the sit-in made us talk about it today, which we might not have been doing. So, that’s what it probably was devised for. And I think the sit-in is also a reminder that the only way anything is ever going to happen on guns, probably, is if there’s a real social movement outside of the political structure that forces and mobilizes the politicians to do something. Or unless you get a super majority inside the Congress.

CHUCK TODD:But I just -- that public opinion -- there isn’t.

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN:

Well, the problem is the intensity is on the side of the gun owners.

CHUCK TODD:

That’s right.

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN:

And the people who care about gun laws being strengthened, they care about it and they still care about it but there’s other things on their mind. So, it’s hard.

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

The trend line on that number is fascinating because 1995 to now you have seen more -- I don’t know, more mass shootings certainly much more publicity of mass shootings. And you are seeing the thinking is every time one of these happens, the thinking, we move slightly closer to gun control. The truth of the matter is, and I’ve said this since Newtown, if the deaths of 20 first graders didn’t change the gun debate - and the truth is they never got a vote on anything other than process in the Senate, and it went down - almost nothing barring what Doris is talking about a large scale change in how we perceive these things.

CHUCK TODD:

Alright. Now, we’re going to go to Helene’s favorite segment here. She’s been very excited about this today. We’ve heard a lot of jokes playing on the word Brexit. Britain is facing a ‘Brexestential’ crisis. Or it’s ‘Brexciting’ right now to be British, or at least at a pub.

But the Independent Journal Review came out with 50 Brexit-inspired names one for every state that might someday like to invoke their own Article 50 and make it the 49 states of America. Well, we picked our top 5. Number five, “OhByeo.” Number 4 on this list, “Texit.” Although my senior producer who is a Texan believes a more appropriate name is really just, Texas, because they’ve always believed they could secede. Number 3 on this list, “Tennessee-ya Later,” my favorite. Number 2, “Flo-riddance.” Flo-Rida I’d like to know what you think of that. And our favorite of them right now is number one, “Virginia is for Leavers.”

HELENE COOPER:

Oh, come on! Seriously? That’s the worst of the lot. This is what you say is number one?

CHUCK TODD:

And that’s the last word. That’s all for today. We’ll be back next week because if it’s Sunday, it’s Meet The Press.