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Meet the Press - November 6, 2016

Meet the Press - November 6, 2016

(BEGIN TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

This Sunday, the final days before the election. And a mad scramble by both candidates. Hillary Clinton targeting her checkmate states.

HILLARY CLINTON:

Tonight I want to hear you roar.

CHUCK TODD:

Donald Trump still searching for a path to 270.

DONALD TRUMP:

Nobody said it was going to be easy for us, but we will never be stopped. Never, ever be stopped.

CHUCK TODD:

We'll get the latest from our correspondents on the campaign trail. I'll talk to Trump supporter and former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich and the Chairman of the Clinton Campaign, John Podesta. Plus, where the race stands. This morning, the results from our final NBC News Wall Street Journal Election Poll. And inside analysis from the pollsters. And finally, the race for the Senate.

MALE VOICE #1:

Would you tell a child to aspire to be like Donald Trump? Would you point to him as a role model?

KELLY AYOTTE:

Absolutely.

MALE VOICE #2:

Ted Strickland has turned his back on us.

CHUCK TODD:

We'll break down the key battles state by state in the last minute fight for control. Joining me for this last Meet the Press before the election are NBC News Special Correspondent Tom Brokaw, Republican strategist Nicolle Wallace, Chris Matthews, host of Hardball, Today Show anchor Savannah Guthrie and Telemundo anchor Jose Diaz Balart. Clinton, Trump, Kaine, Pence. This is it. Welcome to Sunday in a special edition of Meet the Press.

ANNOUNCER:From New York, this is a special edition of Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

And good Sunday morning from election headquarters right here at 30 Rock in New York City. In two days, we're going to have an election that Democratic Pollster Peter Hart says was never about hope, it's always been about fear.

Fear on one side of a changing world and a changing America and fear on the other side about Donald Trump. We've got a lot to cover, so we're going to get right to it. And here it is, our final brand new NBC News Wall Street Journal Poll out this morning. And yes, we have a tightening race.

Hillary Clinton now leading Donald Trump by just four points in the four-way match up, 44 to 40. That is a big change from last month's poll, which had Clinton leading by double digits. 11. That poll, of course, taken before the James Comey email announcement. Now last night in Reno, Nevada, Trump was rushed offstage when someone in the crowd shouted, "Gun," but there was no gun and Trump did return to finish that speech.

(BEGIN TAPE)

DONALD TRUMP:

Nobody said it was going to be easy for us. But we will never be stopped. Never, ever be stopped. I want to thank the Secret Service, these guys are fantastic.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

At the same time, Hillary Clinton was rallying her voters with the help of Katy Perry in a concert in Philadelphia.

(BEGIN TAPE)

HILLARY CLINTON:

When your kids and grandkids ask you what you did in 2016, when it was all on the line, I want you to be able to say, "I voted for a better, fairer, stronger America, where everybody has a chance at the American Dream."

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

This weekend, the two campaigns are taking very different paths to Election Day. Today Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine are targeting a number of states in an attempt to try to checkmate Trump, but Michigan, not yet lit up on our board here, is also suddenly in play. Tomorrow Clinton and President Obama and Bill Clinton are all going to be saturating that suddenly into the battleground state.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump and Mike Pence have no clear path to 270 electoral votes. They are, in effect, throwing spaghetti at the wall, trying to find some combination of new states like Minnesota that will get them to 270 electoral votes.

Of course, they still have to win the traditional battleground states of Florida, Ohio and North Carolina and then find a couple of blue states to flip. Iowa looks good for them. Is it Michigan? We have correspondents all over the campaign trail and we're going to begin in Philadelphia, where Hillary Clinton will be waking up this morning and that's where we find our Kristen Welker. So Kristen, Philadelphia, what's this about?

KRISTEN WELKER:

Well, Chuck, look, Pennsylvania is a part of Secretary Clinton's firewall, and in order to win here, in order to win the White House, she has to get large margins of African-American voters in urban areas like right here in Philadelphia, that was on display during that Katy Perry concert here last night.

Clinton has made 16 stops to Pennsylvania since the DNC. A lot of those stops aimed at energizing African-American voters. And Chuck, consider this, President Obama got 93% of the black vote here in Pennsylvania in 2012. Now Clinton doesn't need to match that, but she's gotta get comparable numbers.

It's not just here. It's in other battlegrounds, like North Carolina and Ohio, where she'll be joined by LeBron James a little bit later on today. And to help her make her case, she has a million volunteers stretched all across the country helping to get out the vote. Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

There you go. All right, Kristen Welker with the Clinton Campaign. Kristen, thanks. Now let's go to Wilmington, North Carolina, check in on where Donald Trump's going to be later today, with Katy Tur, who of course, has been covering the Trump Campaign from the very beginning. Katy, what do you got?

KATY TUR:

Hey there-- Hey there, Chuck. Donald Trump is visiting eight states in the next two days and they're taking a renewed interest in Michigan where they say their internal polling shows them in a dead heat with Hillary Clinton. Why? Because they say their jobs message is just cutting across all demographics in that state.

Now in order for them to get to, to 270, they believe Michigan is absolutely their best path. If they do win that state, they can afford to lose Pennsylvania, where Hillary Clinton is currently polling in the lead. Also, Nevada and New Hampshire. They're also making a surprise visit to Minnesota, a state that President Obama won by eight points in 2012. But the campaign does concede that in order to win, they're going to have to find a blue state and turn it red. Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, Katy Tur, thanks very much. Now let's go to the swing state, perhaps the most important swing state of them all, Florida, and it's in Orlando that we're going to find Chris Jansing. We like to say on this show a lot Florida, Florida, Florida, Chris.

CHRIS JANSING:

And it looks like that this year, as well, Chuck. Early voting smashing all kinds of records. And just over this weekend, the Democrats have started outpacing the Republicans. Big reason, 200,000 more Hispanic votes have been cast already this year than in all the 2012.

Now a word of caution for Hillary Clinton, she's behind where Barack Obama was in 2012 and that's why the President is coming here today to Kissimmee, big Puerto Rican population. He wants to run up the score for her before Election Day because on Election Day, Republicans tend to out vote the Democrats. And this is the last day of early voting here in Florida, including most of the big population centers. So make no mistake, Chuck, looking like another heart-stopping Election Day here in Florida.

CHUCK TODD:

Sure does. Chris Jansing, thanks very much. And finally, our final stop on the map this morning, it's actually usually the first stop of any Presidential candidate and it's in the great primary city of Manchester, New Hampshire, where we, of course, find our own Andrea Mitchell, who has been covering Hillary Clinton for decades. Andrea, what do you got?

ANDREA MITCHELL:

Well, this is not the way Hillary Clinton wanted to finish up, but her plan to end on a positive note got upended by that F.B.I. letter, forcing her to fight back. And for the past week, everywhere we've gone with her, she's been reminding voters of every controversial thing Donald Trump has ever said. Tomorrow night, however, the Clinton Campaign will take two minutes. They're paying for a two-minute commercial on prime time, on NBC and CBS.

They're hoping to reach as many as 20 million people, Chuck, and it will be all about uplifting, about an inclusive America. They're still making it as we speak. But you can be sure it's going to include that stronger America theme. And first of course tonight, she'll be here in New Hampshire, where voters famously are late deciders.

They don't vote early. Clinton will be introduced by Khizr Khan, the Gold Star father who the campaign says represents the very best of America, and President Obama coming back here tomorrow.

CHUCK TODD:

Thank you, Andrea, and as we march towards Election Day, we can tell you that as of yesterday, nearly 40 million people have already voted. We expect the total early vote turnout to be 50 million by Tuesday. And there are strong indications this weekend that the Hispanic vote is up sharply in places like Las Vegas and along the critical I-4 corridor of Florida. That, of course, would be very good news for Hillary Clinton. And joining me now is the Chairman of the Clinton Campaign, John Podesta. Mr. Podesta, welcome back to Meet the Press.

JOHN PODESTA:

Good to be with you, Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

I talked about the good news for you on Hispanic turnout, but you are having some struggles with African-American turnout. We've seen indications, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, that all the turnout among African-Americans is down in the early vote. I'll put up a, a North Carolina stat here that shows it down almost six percentage points from the turnout in 2012. Why do you think you're having a, you're having trouble motivating the African-American vote?

JOHN PODESTA:

Well, look, all the way through the primaries, African-American voters came out for Hillary Clinton. We expect that again now. And we're working very hard to make sure that happens. And she is campaigning across the country in African-American communities. We've had the President out for us. You know, you're comparing us against first African-American President running for re-election. But we think we can hit those numbers. And the President's helping us do that.

CHUCK TODD:

Mmhmm.

JOHN PODESTA:

And-- But we've built a different kind of coalition and a bigger coalition. You mentioned the historic Hispanic turnout that we're seeing in Florida, in Nevada, where we feel very, very good. Obviously, a lot more work to do between now and Tuesday.

CHUCK TODD:

Right.

JOHN PODESTA:

We've had college educated women voting in, in higher numbers, voting for her in higher numbers. Asian-Americans voting disproportionately. And, and so, we're feeling very solid going into this last weekend. But there's a tremendous amount of work to do.

CHUCK TODD:

You brought up the President. I want to play for you a clip of an interview he did with Reverend Sharpton about motivating African-American voters to the polls. Take a listen.

(BEGIN TAPE)

BARACK OBAMA:

Michelle and I, we talk over the dinner table, we explain to our daughters, "You know, not everything is supposed to be inspiring.

AL SHARPTON:

Right.

BARACK OBAMA:

Sometimes you just do what you have to do, and one of the things you've got to do right now is to make sure to vote for Hillary Clinton."

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

It's not a hope and change election. I assume you would like the President to come up with another rationale other than "not everything's supposed to be inspiring?"

JOHN PODESTA:

Look, we're, we're-- On the ballot, on Tuesday, on the ballot in these early votes, is what kind of country we're going to be. And as the President has crisscrossed the country on our behalf, he's laid that ch-- challenge to the voters on the line. What kind of country are we going to be? Are we going to build people up or are we going to tear them down? Are we going to run a campaign of division and bigotry as Donald Trump has done or are we going to run a campaign of inclusion and solving our problems and making the right investments for people, as Hillary Clinton has proposed.

She's done that all her life. That's what her, the cause of her life has been is to fight for family and children. And that's what we think that voters who are now I think with enthusiasm coming out and voting for her will do. You know, Chuck, we have a million volunteers. We did seven million voter contacts yesterday alone.

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah.

JOHN PODESTA:

That's the kind of enthusiasm I think that she's been able to demonstrate.

CHUCK TODD:

What's happening in Michigan? How concerned are you? We saw the Iowa poll numbers. You're clearly behind in Iowa. Likely, that's the one blue state for sure that Trump is going to flip. But Michigan, obviously, you're taking it seriously by sending both Secretary Clinton and the President up there.

JOHN PODESTA:

Look, if we hold onto Nevada, we hold onto Michigan, you know, then Hillary Clinton is going to be the next President of the United States. Most people vote on Election Day in Michigan, so our schedule has been oriented to being in the early vote states, in you know, in the earlier period of time.

Now we're going to Michigan, to New Hampshire, to Pennsylvania, where they do it the old fashioned way. Everybody votes on Election Day. We feel like we got a lead in Michigan. We want to hold onto it and we think we can do that.

CHUCK TODD:

Tim Kaine yesterday in an interview said people within the F.B.I. are actively working to try to help the Trump campaign. Do you believe the entire F.B.I. announcement has both been a benefit to the Trump campaign and that there are forces in the F.B.I. that are actively working against your candidacy?

JOHN PODESTA:

Look, I think what Mr. Comey did, you know, just nine days ago was a mistake. I think it broke with precedent. I think it was criticized roundly by Democrats and Republicans, including four, I'm sorry, two former Deputy Attorney Generals who served with him in the Bush Administration. I think it was a mistake. I think what--

CHUCK TODD:

Is it a mistake that should lead to resignation?

JOHN PODESTA:

--Tim was, what Tim, no--

CHUCK TODD:

Is it a mistake that should lead to resignation?

JOHN PODESTA:

I've never questioned his motivation, I've just said it was a mistake.

CHUCK TODD:Okay.

JOHN PODESTA:

It broke with precedent. There's a reason for that policy. It looked like that what, that it was interfering in the election.

CHUCK TODD:

Right.

JOHN PODESTA:

I think the leaks that have been ongoing, which was what Tim was referring to, you know, is worrisome. But I, you know, I, I think the men and women of the F.B.I. are doing a tremendous job out here across the country. But the leakers should shut up.

CHUCK TODD:

Let me ask you just a final question about WikiLeaks. I don't think anybody feels as if it-- be exposed the way your personal and private messages have been exposed. Explain what this has been like.

JOHN PODESTA:

You mean at a personal level?

CHUCK TODD:

Yes, sir.

JOHN PODESTA:

You know, I've got, I've got, I've got a pretty thick skin, Chuck. So you know, what I've worried about is to make sure that, you know, this is an unprecedented situation where a foreign power hacked my emails, is working with WikiLeaks and Julian Assange to dribble them out in order to maximize the damage to Hillary and to maximize the help to Donald Trump, who's adopted, essentially, Russian follo-- foreign policy and rejected bipartisan U.S. foreign policy.

So it's kind of an unprecedented circumstance. But look, my job is to make sure that we're doing what we need to do to make sure that those volunteers are on doors, on the phones.

CHUCK TODD:

Okay.

JOHN PODESTA:

And that's what we're going to do to win this election.

CHUCK TODD:

John Podesta, Campaign Chair for the Hillary Clinton Campaign. That's all the time I have. Thanks for coming on, appreciate it.

JOHN PODESTA:

Thanks, Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

And joining me now from the other side is former Speaker of the House and a current Donald Trump supporter, Newt Gingrich. Speaker Gingrich, welcome back to Meet the Press, sir.

NEWT GINGRICH:

Chuck, it's great to talk to you.

CHUCK TODD:

Let me start with reading from a memo you wrote on behalf of the RNC earlier this year, principals for planning the 2016 general election campaign. And your first two points, bullet points were, Speaker Gingrich, under words and ideas matter were this, "The wrong words cripple or kill, the right big idea or ideas expressed in clear and simple language with the right tone can win campaigns." If Donald Trump comes up short, is it because he violated those first two bullet points in what you sort of set out there, words matter sometimes?

NEWT GINGRICH:

Well, I think the reason Trump is such a fascinating historic figure is he managed to encompass most points. I think he has hurt his campaign at times by saying things that were unwise, and I think at times he's been truly a historic figure. I mean, his use of very large ideas, whether it's "Make America Great Again" or "drain the swamp," the speech he gave at Gettysburg where he outlined item after item in his contract with the American voters, his proposal for a new deal for African-Americans, which is more than any Republican Presidential candidate in my lifetime. So it's a funny paradox. On the one hand, he's one of the most brilliant marketers I've ever seen. And on the other hand, for a while there, he was undercutting himself. I suspect if he had not done that, he'd be ahead by ten or 15 points right now --he's had to make a comeback--

CHUCK TODD:

Right.

NEWT GINGRICH:

Go ahead.

CHUCK TODD:

No, no, no. I'm sort of-- I'm bemused by the following potential outcome here, which is we've seen a spike in Hispanic turnout. Could it be that Donald Trump could lose -- could look back and say he lost this election on the very first day he announced, when he insulted Mexicans on that very first day. Because it does seem, at least so far, that the evidence is that activated the Hispanic vote.

NEWT GINGRICH:

You know, look, the other side of that coin, Chuck, is could it be that Hillary Clinton when she loses will look back and say, "I shouldn't have been a serial liar, I shouldn't have totally abused national security and I shouldn't have used the State Department Office for personal corruption"?

I mean, she's got plenty of stuff to look back on if she loses. And she was the one who was the frontrunner, she was the one who represented the incumbent President. She's the one who spent 46 years of her life trying to become President.

Now she's scurrying off to Michigan, she didn't even think was in play. She's already lost Ohio in addition to Iowa, so that's two states that have flipped for sure. And I think that she has a very long couple of days here. And remember, Trump bought into this election. Callista and I were at a book signing the other night in Georgia, a 90-year-old woman walks up who had never voted in her entire lifetime. So there are a lot of people Trump's also bringing into the game.

CHUCK TODD:

You know, do you think when you look back on this election that the lack of unity inside the Republican Party, how much of that has been a handicap to this election? I look at a place like New Hampshire, in particular, where you don't even have the Senate candidate, Kelly Ayotte and the Presidential candidate on the same page. And that, you know, 1,000 votes could flip New Hampshire.

NEWT GINGRICH:

That's exactly right. And that's one of the real challenges that we faced all year because the truth is Donald Trump represented an outside, grassroots populism that was furious at the Republican leadership. When this campaign began, 63 percent of all Republicans said they did not like their leadership in Washington and those are the people who nominated Trump. Well, it turns out some of the folks in Washington didn't particularly like having what is in effect, an outsider, populist, hostile takeover of their party.

I get that. And some of them would rather have Hillary Clinton win and have a left wing Supreme Court and have the corruption continue rather than elect Donald Trump. I get that. The question for Trump is, can he arouse enough voters to overcome these? And my guess is he can. I think we're going to be shocked how relatively few people there are who care about the Never Trumpers.

CHUCK TODD:

Can I ask you quickly, you use the word "let the corruption continue," have we been too loose with some words? And I say that because, you know, there's actual corruption that is a crime and there is sometimes we use that word to describe legal politics. Fair or not, do you worry that we let language get too lose?

NEWT GINGRICH:

No, Chuck, I worry, and with all due respect to you as a person, we're pretty good friends, I worry that the elite media has blindly refused to tell the truth. Every foreign gift, every foreign speech--

CHUCK TODD:

It's a big charge--

NEWT GINGRICH:

--Senator or Secretary of State, everyone, no, it's not a big charge, it's the U.S. Constitution. There's a section in the Constitution called the Emoluments Clause, it says, "No one, nor their spouse can take money from foreigners."

She has to be guilty of 70 or 100 counts just on that one charge. Then you look at the people who came into the office, and by the way, the real interesting thing about WikiLeaks and everything else is, they showed us how corrupt the system was, they showed us the people who are being told, "You need to get them in because they are giving to the foundation." I think the real corruption is the lack of the media being willing to be honest about how much lawlessness the Clintons stand for and how much they have ripped off the American people.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, well, now you've actually gotten me to my last sort of point here because I'm trying to figure out--

NEWT GINGRICH:

Alright.

CHUCK TODD:

--November 9th. What do we do as a country on November 9th? Because this has been a rough election. And I want to use your words. This is what you said in January of 2001 after another very contentions Presidential election. You said the following: "Most Americans do not find themselves actually alienated from their fellow Americans or truly fearful if the other party wins power. Unlike in Bosnia, Northern Ireland or Rwanda, competition for power in the U.S. remains largely a debate between people who can work together once the election is over."

NEWT GINGRICH:

Right.

CHUCK TODD:

That was American circa 2001, as far as you were concerned.

NEWT GINGRICH:

Right.

CHUCK TODD:

Do you believe that's the case in January of 2017?

NEWT GINGRICH:

No. No, I think tragically, we have drifted into an environment where if Hillary is elected, the criminal investigations will be endless, and if Trump is elected, it will just be like Madison, Wisconsin with Scott Walker. The opposition of the government employee unions will be so hostile and so direct and so immediate, there will be a continuing fight over who controls the country. I think that we are in for a long, difficult couple of years, maybe a decade or more, because the gap between those of us who are deeply offended by the dishonesty and the corruption and the total lack of honesty in the Clinton Team. And on their side, their defense of unions, which they have to defend, I understand that. But that will lead to a Madison, Wisconsin kind of struggle if Trump wins.

CHUCK TODD:

Wow, Speaker Gingrich, there's a picture that you painted there. Anyway, I'm going to let you go.

NEWT GINGRICH:

I wish it wasn't true, Chuck, I wish it wasn't true.

CHUCK TODD:

And on that case, I think everybody agrees on that note. Speaker Gingrich, I appreciate you coming on the show.

NEWT GINGRICH:

Good to be with you.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, later in the broadcast, we're going to check in with our pollsters to see just how sturdy this Hillary Clinton four-point lead really is. We'll see who has the edge in the fight for the control of the Senate, that's on a knife's edge as well. And we're going to talk about November 9th and have a continuing conversation there that we started with Speaker Gingrich.

Plus, throughout the broadcast, you're going to hear from some on-air folks that are familiar to you, been around this table throughout the election season. We asked them to tell us what they're going to be watching for on election night, here's the first couple.

(BEGIN TAPE)

STEVE KORNACKI:

Well, right away, I'm going to watch for New Hampshire, one of the first states we get results from. Is there any sign of life for Donald Trump in what has become a pretty blue state?

EUGENE ROBINSON:

And watch for Arizona, which used to be deep red and now, some polls indicate Hillary Clinton might actually pull off a win.

(END TAPE)

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. Sundays don't get bigger than this. In fact, my panel is so excited they are already handicapping things. And neither does our panel, we had to go super size. We went five this morning. I'll call it our Spinal Tap Panel.

NICOLLE WALLACE:

I take that personally.

CHUCK TODD:

There you go. Of course, I've got Tom Brokaw, NBC News Special Correspondent, my longtime partner at the White House and Daily Rundown, Savannah Guthrie, good to see you. Republican Strategist Nicolle Wallace.

NICOLLE WALLACE:

I don't get one of those?

CHUCK TODD:

All right, I'll give

NICOLLE WALLACE:

All right, thank you.

CHUCK TODD:

The man who's always playing hardball, Mr. Chris Matthews, and my pal from Miami, big Canes win, so we're both in a good mood, Telemundo Host and anchor of the NBC Weekend Nightly News, Jose Diaz-Balart. Welcome to all of you. Grand Poobah.

TOM BROKAW:

Let's not start there.

CHUCK TODD:

You know, Tom, you just heard--

TOM BROKAW:

Grandfather, yes; grand poobah, not so sure.

CHUCK TODD:

John Podesta questioning the F.B.I., Newt Gingrich talking about a horrendous next four years, no matter who's elected. He had his own partisan spin on why it would be that way, but wow.

TOM BROKAW:

Well, you know, I've been at this for a fair amount of time. I have never seen the country so fractured as it is now. The Founding Fathers in their wisdom said, "We, the people, in order to form a more perfect union." This campaign has been, "We, the African-Americans, we, the Hispanics, we, the women, we, the angry white males, we, the wealthy, we, the people who don't know quite what to do." We're in tribal warfare here and that's now who we are and that's not what we can be. Newt Gingrich is right, we're in for a very difficult time whoever wins that. And there are so many things that have not been addressed in this campaign.

CHUCK TODD:

Lots. It's too long.

TOM BROKAW

And most of all, what you see is everything happens at warp speed. Brett Baier, who's another wise, respectable reporter at Fox the other day said he has an avalanche of evidence, about to indict her. Turns out not to be true. He got out there right away. And Kelly Conway said it doesn't make any difference whether it's true, it's in the minds of the voters at this point. That's not a way to a run a democracy.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, let's talk about the last two days of this campaign and what's happening here. Nicolle, explain the Trump strategy. I mean, they're all over the map.

NICOLLE WALLACE:

Listen, I mean, you keep putting it up in I was going to say black and white, but it's in red and blue. They can run the table, they can win all those battleground states, which in a normal year means victory. But he has to win all the battleground states and flip an otherwise deep blue state, other than Iowa, to win. So I actually think that it's very Trump-like to say, "Well, the battleground states will take care of themselves." It's a huge feat to win all those. But he's concentrating his time in the kind of state it would take to win.

CHUCK TODD:

Pennsylvania, Chris?

CHRIS MATTHEWS:

Yeah, I was in the Democratic City Meeting of all the war leaders Friday at noontime. I mean, they let me in. They don't usually do that. And that's when they hand out the street money. Okay? It's real. 200 bucks for a voting division. And these guys are all pros, men and women--

CHUCK TODD:

What's street money used for? You know, you throw it out there. Lets--

CHRIS MATTHEWS:

It's all professional, it's all legal. You basically pay people to go out door-to-door starting at 11 in the morning, you roust 'em out of the house. If they haven't voted, you say, "Why haven't you voted?" You go back at 4:30 in the afternoon, roust 'em again. You make sure that in these congested all Democratic districts, where everybody is a Democrat, they all vote.

And you turn in a plurality of 450,000 votes coming out of the city. Now with the suburbs being basically 50/50, a little more pro-Hillary this time because of professional women, college-educated women, they're going to win the state with that. It's very professional and I don't know what Trump's thinking about. I asked Brady, the boss of the city, I said, "What's--what's he talking about? He's going to carry Pennsylvania." He said, "He's propagandizing, it's his own mind. It's not going to happen." So I think it's a firewall, Pennsylvania, once again.

CHUCK TODD:

You know, all right. But if the African-American vote is not animated, has the Latino turnout, Jose, in Florida, made up that, made up for that gap?

JOSE DIAZ-BALART:

I'll tell you, Chuck, if Hillary Clinton wins this campaign, I wouldn't be surprised if she renames the states the way they should be said. "La Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Carolina del Norte"

NICOLLE WALLACE:

You got it.

JOSE DIAZ-BALART:

Because in every one of those states--

CHRIS MATTHEWS:

That's what people are afraid of by the way.

JOSE DIAZ-BALART:

Absolutely. In everyone of those states, it could very well be that the community, the Latino community, comes out to stand up against something instead of for something, but against Donald Trump. And if she wins, it may be very much because of that 27 million possible Latino vote.

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE:

And nobody can say they didn't see this coming -- You go back to Reince Priebus, the RNC, they wrote a document, it was supposed to be the ghost of Christmas past, the ghost of election past, what went wrong in 2012. If she wins on Tuesday night, is it going to be because of the fastest-growing demographic, Hispanics, because of the gender that out-votes, women? I mean, it will not be a shocker. And it won't be something that Republicans didn't see coming.

NICOLLE WALLACE:

And what you said to Speaker Gingrich is absolutely right, as a guy who's an expert brander, did he brand himself as so anti-Mexican by calling them rapists and murderers, when he descended the escalator on day one? I mean, that will be what we have to unpack in the aftermath. Did he brand himself in a way that almost disqualified himself?

JOSE DIAZ-BALART:

And since that time, he has not been on Telemundo, for example. He has not been--and we asked him.

CHUCK TODD:

You've never interviewed him?

JOSE DIAZ-BALART:

I interviewed him a couple of weeks after that announcement.

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah?

JOSE DIAZ-BALART:

And then, I was thrown out of a press conference that he had in Laredo and until today, we're waiting.

TOM BROKAW:

Well, what we're seeing is Donald Trump, the one that we've known in New York for a long time. His ego overrides everything else, including judgment. He has mistaken those big crowds that he gets, as he got again last night, 10-15-25,000 people for how you run a general election. And he thinks by showing up, he's going to get people who are going to show up there at his rally, but it's 25,000, it's not two million that he needs in every state. He is mistaken about what it takes to win.

CHUCK TODD:

Very quickly, and whoever wants to jump in on this question, though, it's this, we're talking about Trump and him coming up short. The Clinton Campaign is not just a little nervous, they're a lot nervous here. Should they be?

NICOLLE WALLACE:

They're in Michigan. I mean, you know, the Michigan explanations for them is that no one has voted yet, they need to turn out their vote.

CHUCK TODD:

That's true, but--

NICOLLE WALLACE:

It's true, but it's an offensive case to make about being in Michigan the day before an election.

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE:

Well, it is a fair question. Somebody with all the built-in advantages that she came in having in the sense of she's out spending two to one on the air.

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah.

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE:

She's got a map that favors her from the get go. And as we mentioned, a candidate who has in some ways alienated two of the biggest demographic groups, you have to ask yourself, "How is she keeping it this close?" That's not a flattering question for her.

CHUCK TODD:

Well, it's a good question to end on, because you know who might have, though, the answers? Our pollsters. And they're coming up next. We're going to get the actual insider look. The NBC Wall Street Journal Poll, not my interpretation, but from the source, our pollsters, they're next.

(BEGIN TAPE)

SARA FAGEN:

If Donald Trump starts to get a larger margin in Georgia than is expected, I think you'll see a much closer popular vote result than many people think.

(END TAPE)

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

And we are back. Earlier we revealed the top lines of our brand new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll which showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump 44 to 40. But there's a lot more behind those numbers. We thought we'd let you hear from the people that do this poll all the time for us. Our pollsters, Bill McInturff is the republican pollster and co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies and from team blue Fred Yang of Hart Research. Alright Fred I'll start with you. Clinton is winning so I'll let team blue begin. How durable is this 4-point lead?

FRED YANG:

I think it's pretty durable, Chuck. The difference between the poll we conducted a couple weeks ago and now is that Trump made up ground with groups he needed to make up ground with: republicans, white, non-college educated. But to me the most important number for the Clinton campaign and why I think her lead is durable is if a candidate in politics is having momentum they should be winning with independents. In our poll he's losing with independent by 6 points.

CHUCK TODD:

That's actually shocking, Bill because over the last 3 elections the challenger has carried independents-- it's not always meant victory but the challenger has carried independents that has to be a flashing yellow sign. But what should give Trump hope?

BILL MCINTURFF:

What gives Trump hope is we have a large chunk of people who still say they're third party, they won't vote, they're not decided. That's unusually large. It's almost 8, 9, 10 percent and they are break even to lean Republican in terms of their house preference. And so this race could tighten. However, in all of our data we still have Donald Trump losing with white college voters. If you're going to lose Latinos by an historic margin you cannot win with that number.

CHUCK TODD:

Let me put up these numbers here on college educated versus non-college educated whites. Because this divide may be one of the explanations of this election. Among college educated white men Trump is only winning by a point. Among non-college educated white men he's winning by almost 40 points. Fred?

FRED YANG:

You know, the pundits and the analysts talk about the ceiling for Clinton. There's a ceiling for Trump, too, and I think one of the failures of his candidacy, if he loses on Tuesday, is the inability not just to get minorities, but to get these white educated voters that Bill McInturff is talking about.

CHUCK TODD:

Let me ask you this: How much of an impact? I'm going to put up these, we asked what was an important factor in deciding the vote here on Clinton? Clinton's use of her private server. It was 58 percent. But it does seem as if the issues with Trump were more important to voters. Trump's temperament, 76 percent said it was important and Trump on women. His negatives outweighing her negatives. Is that an explanation for the lead?

BILL MCINTURFF:

Well, yeah, we have to remember that we have two candidates with the highest negatives ever since we've had polling in the 1930s. We'd all be talking about Secretary Clinton's incredible negatives, except for Donald Trump. But still in campaigns, as much as these candidates are not liked, the person with the slightly higher negative tends to win in our, in the NBC/Wall Street JournalPoll. And that gives a little edge to Secretary Clinton.

CHUCK TODD:

I gotta put up, we did some word clouds, we asked in the first couple of days of polling, this is not from all 1,000 respondents, but we asked Trump voters what they think of Clinton. What is your one principal thought about Hillary Clinton as you vote? And we asked Clinton voters, what they think of Trump. Here is what Trump voters think of Clinton in this word cloud: Liar, dishonest, crooked, corrupt. Amazing words there. And Fred, here's what Clinton voters think of Trump, let's put that up: misogynist, sexist, racist. So a crook and a racist, how is America coming together on November 9th?

FRED YANG:

Well, and Chuck, those are just word clouds. Bill and I went through the verbatims.

CHUCK TODD:

Those were word clouds we could air. No, you're right, I read through these raw material, I couldn't believe the four-letter words that were flying.

FRED YANG:

If I had any hair, my hair would be standing up on end. It is-- I think your previous segments, there's an election and then there's a winner. The question on Wednesday and going forward is what does the other side do and do we come together as a country? I think that's a big X factor.

CHUCK TODD:

Bill, this is horrifying.

BILL MCINTURFF:

It is horrifying. And you know, we also asked the question: How comfortable and are you ready to accept this person as your President? We first asked that question in 2000, a week or ten days after that election was still unresolved. 60 percent plus of Americans said, "Okay, Al Gore, that's okay, I'll do that. George Bush, okay, I'll do that." Here today, Hillary Clinton is barely break even. And Donald Trump's a net negative. What it means is on Wednesday morning, we're not going to have a grace period. There won't be a little rise. There's going to be two people that this country is very uncomfortable with as President.

CHUCK TODD:

Half the country is going to think we either elected a crook or a racist. Unbelievable. Bill McInturff, Fred Yang.

FRED YANG:

Thank you, Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

We keep ending every segment so upbeat. Appreciate it. When we come back, which party will control the Senate? It could be a photo finish on Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday or December, stay with us.

(BEGIN TAPE)

JOY-ANN REID

North Carolina. North Carolina is a state that has flipped and it's flopped, if it goes for Hillary Clinton, it's an East Coast state, that'll be an early night call. It means it's going to be a very, very long night, not a good one for Trump supporters.

(END TAPE)

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

And we are back, it's a special edition of Data Download today. I got a special guest: Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report. And we're picking Senate races here. We're talking a look at the nine closest Senate races in the country that's gonna decide control of the Senate. And I've said as you can see allocating everything so far, we have it a 46-45. So here we go the last nine Charlie Cook let's start with high confidence to low confidence for you. We'll start with Illinois.

CHARLIE COOK:

Mark Kirk has just had the toughest job of any Republican incumbent. He's just not gonna make it back.

CHUCK TODD:

All right this one, a battle of a current and former Senators Russ Feingold, Ron Johnson.

CHARLIE COOK:

Right. Ron Johnson made a comeback, but not enough. Feingold wins--

CHUCK TODD:

Democrat flip, comes back here, we got Florida, Marco Rubio.

CHARLIE COOK:

It's not going to be a landslide, but it's going, Rubio wins--

CHUCK TODD:

Even if Clinton carries Florida?

CHARLIE COOK:

I think even so. I think Rubio still wins.

CHUCK TODD:

All right we got our fun here. All right let's move to Pennsylvania. Pat Toomey. Ran a big Obama spot.

CHARLIE COOK:

Toomey started coming back towards the end, but not enough. Katie McGinty wins.

CHUCK TODD:

Not enough, Presidential coattails. All right, Evan Bayh's comeback. How's he doing?

CHARLIE COOK:

I really thought Bayh was going to be able to hang on, but I think it's too much, it's going Republican.

CHUCK TODD:

Going Republican. Meet Senator Todd Young. Nevada, the Harry Reid seat.

CHARLIE COOK:

That's where I think the Democratic turnout operation is going to be just too much and Democrats will hold onto Nevada.

CHUCK TODD:

This will be the first Hispanic woman U.S. Senator, if that does happen. All right, the final three here, look at where we are, 49-48. What do we got?

CHARLIE COOK:

I think I would push Ayotte coming Democratic.

CHUCK TODD:

Well, that puts the 50. That's 50, so if Clinton wins, that's control. What about these last two? Burr, Blunt?

CHARLIE COOK:

Mmmmm.

CHUCK TODD:

You're not ready to pick them, are you?

CHARLIE COOK:

No, I'm not.

CHUCK TODD:

Which one's more likely to be a recount?

CHARLIE COOK:

North Carolina.

CHUCK TODD:

I think we are in for an interesting and long night. All right, Charlie Cook, there it is. Definitely four, if it's a big Democratic night, it goes more?

CHARLIE COOK:

Yeah.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, there it is. Coming up, no matter who wins, our long national nightmare, is it about to end or is it only just beginning?

(BEGIN TAPE)

MARIA TERESA KUMAR:

I will be looking at Florida. Specifically, at the Cuban-American vote, because it's possible that they will be voting Democratic for the very first time since the 1960s.

(END TAPE)

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

Let's bring back the panel, we're going to discuss November 9th on Wednesday. Let me read to you what Myra Adams wrote in National Review this week. It may have been written for all of us. "Now, as when Jesus wept over Jerusalem, knowing the city would eventually be destroyed by the Romans, millions of Americans will be weeping in their hearts knowing that our new long national nightmare is only just beginning."

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE:

Well, that's depressing.

CHUCK TODD:

How about that one Savannah? I mean, this November 9th thing is an issue.

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE:

You know what, I had been counting down for the election for so long. Four more days, three more days, and then it hit me. It doesn't end with Election Day and I don't think we resolve or exercise our political demons starting Wednesday morning and suddenly there's this big moment of everybody coming together. You know what else was fascinating? This is a weekend before an election where usually it's the political pros, you know the Nicolle's of the world at her old job. They're the ones that really feel it in their gut. They feel sick to their stomach. And they need their Tums. I feel like Americans feel that way. Just people who-- just voters feel anxious about not only what is the outcome, but what happens after?

CHUCK TODD:

And there's not an institution in this country, Tom, that hasn't basically, um, been a part of this mess. And the F.B.I. is one of them. Listen to President Obama, when you have the President of the United States saying the following about our justice system. Take a listen.

(BEGIN TAPE)

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA:

Historically, under both Democratic and Republican administrations, our goal has been, and should be, that our investigators and our prosecutors are independent of politics. That they're not politicized. That they're not used as a weapon to advantage either side in partisan arguments. And I want to make sure that we continue with that tradition and with that norm.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

Weapon was a tough word to hear there.

TOM BROKAW:

Well, you know, I'm quite surprised by the conduct of the F.B.I. Not just at the top, but within the ranks itself, the leakage that is going on here in the New York office and Washington and other places. One of the reasons that it's had such a high standing with the American people is that they find something that's wrong. They go investigate it. And then when they've got the goods, then they go public with it. But it does appear, from the outside looking in, like its highly politicized at this point and that's a terrible commentary on where we are.

CHUCK TODD:

And it is actually emblematic, Nicolle, we've let, every institution has allowed almost their personal distaste for one of the two candidates to impact their job. I think people watching will say yeah, you people in the media, but it's clearly happening with the F.B.I. and other parties.

NICOLLE WALLACE:

Yeah. And I was thinking about the human carnage of the psyche-- and I was talking to my husband about it. You know, it won't be long before, you know, my emails are out there, knock on wood. And just, you know, just the human carnage. The people have been fired and sort of put through the human woodchip or the institutions that have been completely destroyed in terms of the public trust. This had to be a slow boil. And, you know, we were talking about Palin in the break. You know, just as Palin didn't select himself, Trump didn't steal the election. He won it. And so, the real work, I think is on the Republican side to really go and understand why the base of our party selected him. They chose him over 16 other people. And if we try -- if he should come up short and we try to move on, business as usual, let's get back to our free trade agenda, you know and strong vote-- it'll be a disaster for a generation. I mean, the work at least, on the right, has to be in piecing back together this coalition.

CHRIS MATTHEWS:

I think that the Democrats have to listen, too. I mean, if this election goes as your polls showing it going with Hillary winning, there's still a huge minority of the country, almost 50-50 and probably more that would've voted for Trump if it weren't for Trump. His issues were powerful. He tapped into anger.

CHUCK TODD:

He had the message. He may be the wrong messenger.

CHRIS MATTHEWS:

It was trade. It was uncontrolled immigration. Wars we probably shouldn't have fought. And he put it all together in this perfect storm of anger. And he addressed it. He didn't create it. I don't even know if he believes it, you know? The monkey typed Merry Christmas. I don't know. But the fact is the Democrats ought to recognize that they didn't win this argument. They didn't win the argument if they win the election. And they better be careful about that.

JOSE DIAZ-BALART:

What makes this the greatest country on earth, it's the respect for the rule of law. It's for democracy. It's what this country stand for, compared to any other country in the world. And I think that what we're seeing on the one side, a caudillo-type attitude and on the other side you have allegations or at least a lot of people who believe there's corruption and impunity. Those are things that we see in other countries. We shouldn't see in this country.

TOM BROKAW:

One other thing is, we're not talking about the monster in the closet. We're not talking about social media. What happens the day after? With all of the site out there who are dedicated and, in many instances, left and right to the destruction of the opposition, by whatever means necessary and they have an enormous reach. More people believe social media than believe their elected officials quite honestly.That's what defines who they want to be and where they want to get to. And it's extremely sophisticated.

CHUCK TODD:

We're going to see the "I" word no matter who wins, impeachment proceedings. I mean, we sort of laugh it off but they may begin no matter who wins, right Nicolle?

NICOLLE WALLACE:

Yeah, listen, it's part of Donald Trump's closing message. He's talking about the Three I's: Indictment, impeachment and investigation.

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah.

NICOLLE WALLACE:

And it's tapping into what you're talking about.

CHUCK TODD:

By the way. he's got his own lawsuits that would pop up.

NICOLLE WALLACE:

Right.

CHUCK TODD:

That's what we're headed for as a country.

NICOLLE WALLACE:

Right, right, and it really sort of -- I think it's crippled both of these candidates. You've been talking since before either of them won their primaries about how they're the two most unpopular figures that either side has nominated. I think the social media impact is a big thing.

CHRIS MATTHEWS:

If I win, I'll put her in jail; if I didn't win, it was rigged. That's third world talk.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, let me take a 45-second break. And we'll get to the "Endgame" here. Our long national nightmare apparently is just beginning. Final word, by the way, in the election, from the second best set of political analysts in the business, our colleagues upstairs, it's "Saturday Night Live."

(BEGIN TAPE)

CECILY STRONG:

Let's get to what's obviously, the big story of the week--

KATE McKINNON:

Please be his taxes, please be his taxes, please be his taxes.

CECILY STRONG:

Secretary Clinton's emails.

KATE McKINNON:

Okay.

(END TAPE)

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

Back now with End Game and our End Game is sort of figuring out alright, how are we going to watch this on Tuesday night to figure out who wins or loses? I've got counties that I'm watching when it comes --

NICOLLE WALLACE:

Of course you do!

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah, come on now. But I want to fit it in. Tom, there is a way to measure the millennial turnout and our man Dante Chinni in our data department says it's Dane County, it's Madison, Wisconsin. They were huge for President Obama, they've been stagnant this cycle.

TOM BROKAW:

No, they have been. And you know they didn't step up with Hillary Clinton and they got taken down by Madeleine Albright who then, in part, got taken down by them saying, "wait a minute we're making our own decision." This is the best educated American generation ever, the most entrepreneurial. They have their hands on all the new technology. And they're separating themselves from the political institutions and from the whole idea of America about how we settle these issues and unless you can get them involved in some new fashion I think that that's going to be a real problem going forward.

CHUCK TODD:

Jose, Miami-Dade is a county I'm obsessed with for-- because it's our hometown number one. But the margin there for Hillary Clinton is going to matter. Is this going to be the Prop 187 election for hispanic voters?

JOSE DIAZ-BALART:

It could very well be--

CHUCK TODD:

For the nation. Yeah.

JOSE DIAZ-BALART:

--across the country. I'm looking at the Cuban-American vote in south Florida. I want to see how that goes because there are many Cuban-American voters that feel the Obama administration has been giving unlimited concessions to the Castro regime and that Hillary Clinton would do the same. Let's see how that goes. And the I-4 corridor, the new voters, the Puerto Ricans that have come and moved to south Florida making it home. That's going to be interesting to see.

CHUCK TODD:What's your obsession?

CHRIS MATTHEWS:

I think the biggest news in this country is going to be the election of the first woman president. It's going to blow our minds when it actually happens. It's going to be a new world for young women like my daughter --

CHUCK TODD:

She hasn't run on this.

CHRIS MATTHEWS:

I know. It's just the reality--

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah no I agree. But you're right.

CHRIS MATTHEWS:

You overlook the big reality. The second thing is the biggest news worldwide is not that we elected our first woman President, because Britain has done it, Germany has done it, other countries have done it, Brazil has done it. It's that we haven't elected Trump. The world-wide relief you are going to hear, because I've heard it around the world, that Trump didn't win, it's going to make them happy.

CHUCK TODD:

But down the ballot here, there is a Presidential candidate that, a once and future one, that is on the ballot.

NICOLLE WALLACE:

Right, so the only also ran who, whom may have a victory speech to give that night will be Marco Rubio, who wasn't going to run for this Senate seat, he--

CHUCK TODD:

Actually, he'd be the only one to be able to give a victory speech.

NICOLLE WALLACE:

Right, right. So that is interesting to me. And then, he and some of the other Republican senators were outperforming Trump. Portman's also outperforming Trump, if Kelly Ayotte wins and Trump comes up short in New Hampshire. So I am curious to watch Marco Rubio on election night. I am also obsessed with this concept of hidden vote. We've talk so much about hidden Trump vote, they must not have parents who are Trump supporters. Trump supporters are loud and proud, I am curious to see if there will be any hidden Hillary vote.

CHUCK TODD:

I'm with you on that one.

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE:

A lot of people talking about that.

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah.

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE:

I just think it's interesting in the final ten days, Donald Trump was dealt a good hand in terms of the news cycle with the Comey announcement and he played that hand well. And we've seen--

CHUCK TODD:

For the first time ever.

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE:

In the last ten days, he's at his very best. He's made it a tight race. If he pulls it out on Tuesday, we'll all say "wow;" and if he doesn't, a lot of people are going to say, "Imagine what could have been."

TOM BROKAW:

Well, all of America, there are people on both sides in fetal positions right now, you know, saying, "Get it over with, I don't know what I'm going to do if he wins or if she wins."

CHUCK TODD:

Right.

TOM BROKAW:

I have never seen the country so paralyzed.

CHUCK TODD:

And you saw it in those unbelievable word clouds. All right, let's end on a happier note.

NICOLLE WALLACE:

Okay.

CHUCK TODD:

And there's no happier way to end than with our friends at "SNL," who they, themselves, actually tried to end their own show on a happier note, or apparently are covering a campaign on Earth Two, take a look.

(BEGIN TAPE)

KATE MCKINNON (AS HILLARY CLINTON):

You know what I think can help us? Let's get outta here.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

Well, there you go. How about it? Come on, America, let's hug it out. I'll tell you, both of them.

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE:

Is it weird that I'm getting a little misty watching this?

CHUCK TODD:

You are?

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE:

Might be the pregnancy.

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah, I was just going to say, it really is because we know that Alec Baldwin and Kate McKinnon would be hugging it out if this were the election. Anyway, you guys are great. But we all have-- the work is just beginning. And all of us have to get a tiny bit more caffeine, a tiny bit more sleep and a lot more caffeine to get it going.

So in case you didn't know it, the election is on Tuesday. So with that in mind, please be sure to join myself and my colleagues, Lester Holt and two of the panelists here, Savannah Guthrie and Tom Brokaw, we're going to see a lot of these guys and gals, too, as well. It's decision night in America on NBC News and it begins at 7:00 Eastern Time.

That's all we have for today. We'll be back next week when we think we will know that we will have a President elect, at least we hope we know. Because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.

***END TRANSCRIPT***