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Four Takeaways From the Latest Battleground Polls

Trump: Clinton Can't Win Pennsylvania Unless There's Cheating 1:11

Seven news battleground polls, seven states where Hillary Clinton holds a lead against Donald Trump.

Those are the results from the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, which found Hillary Clinton ahead in Iowa (by four points), Ohio (by five), Florida (by five), North Carolina (by nine), Pennsylvania (by 11), Virginia (by 13) and Colorado (by 14).

If those poll numbers hold with another three months to go until Election Day 2016, Trump won’t have a realistic path to 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

But there are four other takeaways from the new battleground polling. Call them the four different gaps:

1. The Education Gap

With one exception (Florida), Clinton is leading in every battleground among college-educated white voters, while she’s losing among whites without a college degree. Why is this significant? As the Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein has noted, no Democratic presidential candidate going back to 1952 has won among college-educated whites. (All poll numbers below are among registered voters)

Colorado

  • Whites with a college degree: Clinton 55%, Trump 23% (D+32)
  • Whites without: Trump 43%, Clinton 32% (R+11)

Florida

  • Whites with a college degree: Trump 42%, Clinton 40% (R+2)
  • Whites without: Trump 50%, Clinton 32% (R+18)

Iowa

  • Whites with a college degree: Clinton 56%, Trump 25% (D+31)
  • Whites without: Trump 42%, Clinton 35% (R+7)

North Carolina

  • Whites with a college degree: Clinton 47%, Trump 40% (D+7)
  • Whites without: Trump 60%, Clinton 23% (R+37)

Ohio

  • Whites with a college degree: Clinton 45%, Trump 37% (D+8)
  • Whites without: Trump 49%, Clinton 31% (R+18)

Pennsylvania

  • Whites with a college degree: Clinton 53%, Trump 32% (D+21)
  • Whites without: Trump 50%, Clinton 34% (R+16)

Virginia

  • Whites with a college degree: Clinton 43%, Trump 37% (D+6)
  • Whites without: Trump 48%, Clinton 28% (R+20)
The voters Trump is counting on to win 6:41

2. The Urban-vs.-Rural Gap

Relatedly, Clinton is drubbing Trump in urban areas and suburbs, while Trump is ahead in rural areas. The problem for Trump: For the most part, there are many more voters in these urban areas than rural ones.

Colorado

  • Denver-Eastern Suburbs: Clinton 60%, Trump 20% (D+40)
  • Western Suburbs: Clinton 55%, Trump 20% (D+35)
  • East: Trump 44%, Clinton 42% (R+2)
  • Southern Front Range: Trump 51%, Clinton 28% (R+23)
  • Colorado Rockies: Trump 39%, Clinton 29% (R+10)

Florida

  • North/Panhandle: Trump 52%, Clinton 33% (R+19)
  • Orlando/Central Atlantic Coast: Clinton 51%, Trump 32% (D+19)
  • Tampa Bay Area: Clinton 46%, Trump 35% (R+11)
  • Gulf Coast/Mid-Florida: Trump 47%, Clinton 34% (R+13)
  • Miami/Gold Keys: Clinton 51%, Trump 32% (D+19)

Iowa

  • Eastern Cities: Clinton 45%, Trump 31% (D+14)
  • East Central: Clinton 47%, Trump 33% (D+14)
  • Des Moines Area: Clinton 44%, Trump 30% (D+14)
  • Central: Trump 46%, Clinton 34% (R+12)
  • West: Trump 51%, Clinton 31% (R+20)

North Carolina

  • East: Clinton 41%, Trump 41% (even)
  • Raleigh-Durham Triangle: Clinton 61%, Trump 28% (D+33)
  • Charlotte Area: Clinton 53%, Trump 34% (D+19)
  • Piedmont Central: Clinton 44%, Trump 44% (even)
  • West: Clinton 44%, Trump 43% (D+1)

Ohio

  • Cleveland area: Clinton 58%, Trump 23% (D+35)
  • North: Clinton 41%, Trump 40% (D+1)
  • Ohio Valley & West: Trump 45%, Clinton 32% (R+13)
  • Columbus area: Clinton 49%, Trump 35% (D+14)
  • Cincinnati/Dayton: Trump 44%, Clinton 40% (R+4)

Pennsylvania

  • Philadelphia: Clinton 71%, Trump 19% (D+52)
  • Philly burbs: Clinton 52%, Trump 26% (D+26)
  • Northeast: Clinton 42%, Trump 41% (D+1)
  • Central: Trump 53%, Clinton 31% (R+22)
  • West: Clinton 53%, Trump 36% (D+17)

Virginia

  • DC Suburbs: Clinton 63%, Trump 21% (D+42)
  • Northern Virginia Exurbs: Clinton 39%, Trump 36% (D+3)
  • Central/West: Trump 44%, Clinton 38% (R+6)
  • Richmond/East: Clinton 44%, Trump 34% (D+10)
  • Tidewater: Clinton 50%, Trump 31% (D+19)
Key groups helping Clinton in swing states 5:39

3. The Gender Gap

Clinton is winning women by larger margins than Trump is winning among men. And Clinton is even winning among men in Colorado and Virginia.

Colorado

  • Men: Clinton 42%, Trump 34% (D+8)
  • Women: Clinton 50%, Trump 31% (D+19)

Florida

  • Men: Trump 41%, Clinton 40% (R+1)
  • Women: Clinton 47%, Trump 37% (D+10)

Iowa

  • Men: Trump 43%, Clinton 33% (R+10)
  • Women: Clinton 49%, Trump 32% (D+17)

North Carolina

  • Men: Trump 43%, Clinton 42% (R+1)
  • Women: Clinton 53%, Trump 34% (D+19)

Ohio

  • Men: Trump 42%, Clinton 41% (R+1)
  • Women: Clinton 45%, Trump 35% (D+10)

Pennsylvania

  • Men: Trump 44%, Clinton 40% (R+4)
  • Women: Clinton 55%, Trump 30% (D+25)

Virginia

  • Men: Clinton 40%, Trump 39% (D+1)
  • Women: Clinton 52%, Trump 28% (D+24)
Trump: Claim on Obama and ISIS Was Sarcastic But 'Not That Sarcastic' 1:25

4. The Party Unity Gap

In all seven states, Democrats are backing Clinton by a larger margin than Republicans are behind Trump – sometimes by wide margins.

Colorado

  • Among Democrats: Clinton 91%, Trump 4% (D+87)
  • Among Republicans: Trump 79%, Clinton 7% (R+72)

Florida

  • Among Democrats: Clinton 92%, Trump 4% (D+88)
  • Among Republicans: Trump 79%, Clinton 6% (R+73)

Iowa

  • Among Democrats: Clinton 88%, Trump 4% (D+84)
  • Among Republicans: Trump 83%, Clinton 4% (R+79)

North Carolina

  • Among Democrats: Clinton 89%, Trump 7% (D+82)
  • Among Republicans: Trump 84%, Clinton 6% (R+78)

Ohio

  • Among Democrats: Clinton 87%, Trump 5% (D+82)
  • GOP: Trump 83%, Clinton 5% (R+78)

Pennsylvania

  • Among Democrats: Clinton 91%, Trump 5% (D+86)
  • Among Republicans: Trump 77%, Clinton 7% (R+70)

Virginia

  • Among Democrats: Clinton 94%, Trump 2% (D+92)
  • Among Republicans: Trump 80%, Clinton 5% (R+75)