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THE LID: 2016 TMI

Image: Chris Christie

Republican presidential candidate, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks during a forum Monday, Aug. 3, 2015, in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Jim Cole) Jim Cole / AP

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos… Chris Christie told a room full of people Tuesday that he’s used “more than just the rhythm method” in his life. We assume he’s talking about the tactics he used to determine which cycle to run for president.

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’16 AT 30 THOUSAND

Yes, all eyes will be on the Republican field for the rest of the week as they man their battle stations for the first GOP debate on Thursday. But it’s worth one more long look at the candidate who’s leading on the other side of the aisle. Our NBC/WSJ poll showed that Hillary Clinton’s favorability ratings have sunk pretty notably in the last month; she’s gone from a net +4% in June to a net -11% in July. One of the most dramatic places where she lost ground: white women, who’ve gone from a net +1% to a net -19% -- a downward swing of 20 points in just about four weeks.

Some caveats here: 1) Clinton’s numbers with this demographic do fluctuate a LOT (She’s been as high as +38 in her final months at the State Department, while she struggled late in her 2008 run). 2) Other GOP candidates, including Jeb Bush, are underwater with the same group -- although not quite as dramatically, and 3) Clinton’s negatives with white women in this poll come when she is NOT matched up against a Republican; we don’t know what that number would look like in a head-to-head competition with a male GOP opponent.

All that said, this is by far her worst number with white women since before her first presidential run, If you were wondering why the Clinton campaign is running $2 million worth of ads about the inspirational story of her mom, that number’s your answer.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

  • After Gawker released his cell phone number, Donald Trump hit back by inviting the public to call him -- to listen to a message about his campaign, NBC’s Ali Vitali reports.
  • From NBC’s Kailani Koenig: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie delved into his own use of birth control at a New Hampshire town hall on Monday, resulting in the cringe-worthy quote: "I'm a Catholic, but I've used birth control. And not just the rhythm method, OK?”
  • In this morning’s First Read: A deep dive into why the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has lousy news for nearly every 2016 candidate.

CAMPAIGN QUICK READS

TRUMP: The publisher of a biography of Donald Trump has moved up its release date from next year to October 6, the AP writes

And the New York Times writes that his secret weapon during Thursday’s debate may be his past donations to his now GOP rivals.

CHRISTIE: A confident team Christie sent out invites to a debate watch party while his inclusion into the main event remains uncertain, the New York Times reports.

WEBB: He has kept a low-key profile since announcing his presidential campaign, but his Iowa director has not.

And Save the Children, a non-partisan 501c4 advocating for expanded access to high-quality childhood education, has made a $600,000 month-long media buy in Iowa urging Democratic and Republican candidates to make early education a priority.

FOR THE RECORD…

“I think they are very disloyal people. But they’re politicians.”

  • Donald Trump on how some 2016 Republicans he once supported are now targeting him

TOMORROW’S SKED

Hillary Clinton fundraises in Utah, Oregon, and California.

Marco Rubio attends a rally in Cleveland.

Martin O’Malley campaigns in Cedar Rapids.