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The Lid: Clinton Triumphs in Post-Debate Polls

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos…A new Monmouth University poll found that 7% of voters lost or ended a friendship over the 2016 election. We have to assume the electoral melancholy that has overtaken America was also a factor in the Brangelina split.

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'16 from 30,000: It's just about 48 hours after a hugely-watched and action-packed debate, so it's prime time for new empirical evidence about what real voters thought about the debate's impact on the race. (And no, those insta-polls that came out moments after the debate ended are not methodologically sound, folks.) We've got our own first look out today, with a new NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll showing that 52 percent of likely voters said Clinton won the debate, while only 21 percent said Trump won.

While we're talking about polls, here's another thing to keep in mind: "Winning" a debate isn't just about individual voters' gut reactions. It's also about a narrative that takes a few days to harden as people talk to their friends and family and - yes - watch news coverage. So while we're starting to get a good sense of how the public reacted to both candidates' debate performances, it's also smart to be patient and make sure to take into account polls that are in the field NOW, when more people have had time to digest the debate and chat about it around the water cooler. That's when we'll see whether the debate created a short-lived blip or a long-term shift.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

Who won? Our NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll has new data about what voters thought about the debate.

Here's why Trump's confusion over nuclear weapons matters.

First Lady Michelle Obama rallied youth in Philadelphia and slammed birtherism, NBC's Danny Freeman reports.

Former Miss Universe Alicia Machado is hoping that speaking out against Trump will boost Clinton.

Trump supporters saw problems with his debate performance, NBC's Alex Jaffe reports.

Former GOP Sen. John Warner endorsed Clinton.

And from First Read: Clinton's challenge with millennial voters.

FOR THE RECORD…

"I don't think this speculation is useful to our process here."

  • Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, on Howard Dean's unfounded claims that Donald Trump used cocaine before the debate.

TOMORROW'S SKED

Hillary Clinton is in Des Moines.

Donald Trump campaigns in New Hampshire.

Mike Pence is in Pennsylvania.