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The Lid: Eyes on Indiana

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos… More than three million people watched a live Facebook broadcast of Buzzfeed employees wrapping rubber bands around a watermelon until it burst. We can only assume that RIGHT NOW, primetime network TV producers are already frantically storyboarding ideas for a hot new drama about exploding fruit.

‘16 from 30,000: While New York, which typically hasn’t been the epicenter of presidential politics, is finally having its big political day in the sun, we’re being spoilsports and looking ahead to *another* big contest that might be even more definitive when it comes to the GOP race. IF current polling holds and Donald Trump captures almost all the delegates in New York, Trump would come out of the Empire State with a shot of momentum heading into the slate of other northeastern contests taking place a week later. And if he racks up huge margins there (and yes, that’s another big IF), the narrative may very well turn back to the question of whether he can reach that magical 1,237 number after all.

Enter Indiana. As the smart folks over at The Upshot note, it’s “the most important state that no one is talking about.” It’s really not clear what could happen there, particularly because it’s hard to know how much juice John Kasich will get from his high favorability in neighboring Ohio. (Also, there isn’t really reliable polling yet in the state.) If Trump can somehow win in Indiana after a string of victories in the northeast, his chances to get to 1,237 will suddenly look alive. If he can’t, Trump’s path goes from “no room for error” to a wild Hail Mary.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

The Stop-Trump movement is ramping up in California, with a goal of shutting him out entirely.

Bill Clinton said of his heated exchanged with Black Lives Matter activists Friday “I almost want to apologize.”

Hillary Clinton weighed in again over the “qualifications” fight, NBC’s Leigh Ann Caldwell and Marianna Sotomayor write.

And in First Read: Donald Trump is getting outhustled in the race for delegates at state and district conventions.

FOR THE RECORD…

“People liked me but they didn't vote for me. And Trump has horrible numbers, but they vote for him.”

  • Ben Carson, continuing in his recurring role as Surrogate of the Year, in a FOX News interview.

WEEKEND SKED

The Colorado GOP convention (where delegates will be selected) is on Saturday. Ted Cruz will address the gathering.

The Wyoming Democratic caucuses are also on Saturday.

Donald Trump has a rally in Rochester, NY on Sunday