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The Lid: Golden State Going Down To The Wire

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos… Critics are mocking Paul Ryan for making an interviewer agree not to ask him about Donald Trump during an interview for People's "Celebrity Babies" vertical. Count us among the Americans who did not know until this point that "Celebrity Babies" was a real thing people cared about and not just a pejorative for high-maintenance political candidates.

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'16 from 30,000

Let us welcome everybody to the wild, wild west … of close Democratic primary poll numbers, that is! It's a tight one in California, with our brand new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll numbers of the Golden State showing Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by just two points with likely primary voters, 49 percent to 47 percent -- within the poll's margin of error. We're seeing some familiar patterns in the data, with Clinton leading among voters over 45, past participants in the Democratic primary and self-identified Democrats. Sanders is ahead with independents and first-time participants. Clinton also leads with those who have already voted, 58 percent to 41 percent. Clinton is besting Sanders among more reliable parts of the Democratic electorate, but the numbers really emphasize her major challenge in the fall to consolidate support from newer, younger voters without a strong allegiance to the party. And if Clinton loses in California, an emboldened Sanders will be even less incentivized to leave the race and call for party unity against Trump before the convention.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

FOR THE RECORD…

"I bought underwear on Amazon the other day and I bought them too small. I'm dealing with that right now."

  • Gary Johnson in a conversation with New York Times political reporters.

TOMORROW'S SKED

Hillary Clinton campaigns in California, where she will make the case that Donald Trump is a threat to national security.

Bernie Sanders campaigns in Modesto and Chico, California.

Donald Trump holds a rally in San Jose.