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The Lid: GOP Concerns Over Keeping Senate Grow

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos… The Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians face off tonight in a heavily anticipated World Series matchup that has Cubs fans hoping for the championship they’ve waited all their lives for. Or, in Hillary Clinton’s case, all her life minus the eight years she served as a New York senator and Yankees fan.

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‘16 from 30,000

With two weeks to go, the political reality is that Donald Trump’s impact on downballot Republican races is starting to come into focus. And the news doesn’t look good for the GOP. The Cook Political Report now estimates that Senate Democrats are poised to pick up five to seven seats, which gives them the majority. It’s true that there are a lot of tight statewide races out there, and Senate Republican candidates are largely outperforming Trump in those states. But Trump’s drag is likely to be a defining factor in how these races break. And here’s what the Cook Political Report’s Jennifer Duffy points out about how those fractures typically happen. “History shows that races in the Toss Up column never split down the middle; one party tends to win the lion’s share of them. Since 1998, no party has won less than 67 percent of the seats in Toss Up.”

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

FOR THE RECORD…

“When I see her, I see her in an orange jumpsuit, I’m sorry, or at least a striped one.”

-- Rudy Giuliani on his deadpan reaction to Hillary Clinton’s jokes at the Alfred E. Smith dinner last week.

TOMORROW’S SKED

Trump attends a rally in North Carolina.

Hillary Clinton is in Florida while Tim Kaine visits Pennsylvania.

Mike Pence hits Nevada, Utah and Colorado.