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The Lid: Tax Issue Plays Into Bigger Problems for Trump

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos… Tim Kaine and Dave Matthews will campaign together next week in Denver at an event we have to assume the harmonica-playing VP candidate is viewing as an audition in case this whole election thing doesn’t work out.

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‘16 from 30,000

The New York Times’ blockbuster story over the weekend detailing how Donald Trump may have avoided paying taxes for nearly 20 years after suffering a billion-dollar loss in 1995 is a good reminder of some fundamental facts about polling and Trump’s taxes: 1) Trump’s refusal to release his taxes remains a significant concern to a lot of voters and 2) they are still much, much more worried about his temperament and other controversial comments. Our September NBC/WSJ poll showed that about half - 52 percent - of voters said that they have “major” (38 percent) or “moderate” (14 percent) concerns about Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns, but just six percent said that it’s their TOP worry. But the new revelation from the New York Times could certainly exacerbate the problem for Trump, and the story could have an especially negative effect if independents (a majority of whom already said they’re bothered by Trump’s tax issues even BEFORE the NYT report) start thinking more skeptically about Trump’s business acumen and ability to manage the economy.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

FOR THE RECORD…

“What kind of genius loses a billion dollars in a single year?”

  • Hillary Clinton on Monday.

TOMORROW’S SKED

Hillary Clinton makes two stops in Pennsylvania while her surrogates campaign across the country. Bill Clinton, Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren all campaign in key battleground states.

Donald Trump makes a stop in Arizona.

And Mike Pence and Tim Kaine square off in the vice presidential debate.