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The Lid: Trump’s Success in Minority Communities Has Hinged on Whites

'16 from 30,000:

Donald Trump is continuing to try to appeal to minorities this week, telling African American and Latino voters again today that they have "nothing to lose" by backing his candidacy. And some commentators are pointing out that Trump is headed to Jackson, MS, tonight -- a city with a population that's about 80 percent black. We'd add this note: It's nothing new for Trump to perform well in areas with relatively high-minority populations, but it's not because he's actually getting a lot of support from minority voters. (In fact, he's polling at historic lows with them now.) As our colleague Dante Chinni pointed out earlier this year, Trump performed very well during the primaries in states with a minority population above eight percent and an unemployment rate above the national average. But that's not because he was pulling support from blacks and Hispanics overall, but rather because he overperformed with white voters who live near minority communities. And a look at the election history in Jackson is instructive. While the city's primary surrounding county is about 70 percent black and voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2012, two other nearby counties - Rankin and Madison - are mostly white and voted for Romney by double digits. And here's one more data point: When Trump held a rally in Tampa - another diverse city - earlier today, NBC's Ali Vitali counted only about 10 minority attendees out of more than 1000 people in the audience.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

FOR THE RECORD…

"My diagnosis would be that anybody who is elderly should expose their records and we the people should know what they are."

-- Ben Carson on Morning Joe, discussing whether Trump and Clinton should release their medical records.

TOMORROW'S SKED

Donald Trump holds a rally in Manchester, NH.

Hillary Clinton campaigns in Nevada.