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The Lid: What the Michigan Primary Could Tell Us About November

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos…Peyton Manning officially announced his retirement Monday, ending his career at the top of his game rather than before an inevitable descent into mediocrity. Which provides an enduring example that we’re sure many politicians in Washington will be sure to learn fr----- hahahaha just kidding, that will never happen.

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‘16 from 30,000

With those “Super Saturday” contests in the history books, we’ve got another potentially very interesting set of races coming up tomorrow. And our biggest focus is going to be on Michigan, particularly on the Republican side. Our own NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out Sunday showed Donald Trump leading in the relatively delegate-rich state, while Hillary Clinton bested Sanders. Here’s why the GOP side might have some interesting long-term takeaways: If potential nominee Donald Trump was to have a shot at a general election victory, his path would probably have to go through states like Michigan, where he hopes to mobilize disaffected white blue-collar voters. In 2012, a whopping third(!) of GOP primary voters said someone in their household had lost their job in the last 3 three years. But recent polling also seems to show that there’s a robust anti-Trump movement afoot here too, with John Kasich surging over the weekend in a new Monmouth poll that showed the Ohio governor with some significant momentum. Tuesday night’s exit polls could teach us a lot about a part of the electorate that’s anything but a sure bet for either wing of the GOP.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

FOR THE RECORD…

“I would love to take a few questions from these dishonest people.”

  • Donald Trump at a press conference on Saturday

TOMORROW’S SKED

Hillary Clinton campaigns in Cleveland, while Bernie Sanders spends time in Michigan and Florida.

John Kasich is in Michigan and Ohio, Ted Cruz is in North Carolina and Marco Rubio campaigns in Florida.

If it’s Tuesday...Michigan and Mississippi hold primaries. Republicans also caucus in Hawaii and vote in the Idaho primary.