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The Lid: Where to Watch When the S.C. Results Come In

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos… By Wednesday, two presidential candidates will have made history by winning the Republican and Democratic caucuses in Nevada, thus joining the tiny minority of Americans who have ever departed Las Vegas feeling good about the choices they made there.

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'16 from 30,000

If you're like us, you know that nothing says "Saturday night" like impressing your friends with granular knowledge about primary state counties. But seriously, if you're watching the returns in tomorrow's South Carolina GOP contest, here's a tip: Keep your eye on the counties around Greenville.

Our colleague Dante Chinni points out that one of Ted Cruz's most important strengths in both Iowa and New Hampshire was his support among college-educated evangelicals. That means he should perform very well in Greenville and probably Pickens counties, which are rich with that kind of voter. But a big question will be how he does in other upstate counties -- like Spartanburg, Greenwood, and Laurens, to name a few --- which are above the state average for evangelicals but below the state average for income. The question Dante says to watch: Do voters in these counties vote as evangelicals or as blue collar folks? If they do the former, Cruz may have a good shot in the state to at least finish a close second. If they do the latter, Donald Trump is probably winning big.

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TOMORROW'S SKED

On Saturday: The GOP primary in South Carolina and the Democratic caucuses in Nevada.