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The Lid: White Voters Could End Up Being the Trouble for Trump

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos…Donald Trump on Wednesday said he doesn’t even need commercials given how much earned media he garners. Though we have no polling on it, we have to assume this idea has broader support among swing-state television viewers than anything proposed to date this campaign.

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‘16 from 30,000

Donald Trump’s problems with minority voters have been well documented. But our colleague Dante Chinni notes that white voters may prove to be a significant problem of their own. Specifically, college-educated white people in Midwestern states critical to win the White House. According to our latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump holds a 23-point edge (54-31%) over Hillary Clinton among white, non-Hispanic voters without a college degree. But among white voters with a college degree? He trails Clinton 44 to 43 percent. For comparison, our October 2012 poll found Romney leading Obama 57-36% among whites with a bachelor’s degree and 53-41% among those with a bachelor’s or more. Chinni notes that the white-vote split can have serious implications in November. Populated metro areas near Philadelphia, Columbus, Milwaukee and Detroit have a significant number of college-educated white voters. And those areas have plenty of votes, meaning closer margins would force Trump to find other places to make up for it. It also means Trump’s problems with minority voters won’t matter much if he can’t make up ground with college-educated whites.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

FOR THE RECORD…

“I don’t even need commercials, if you want to know the truth.”

-- Donald Trump during a rally in Maine on Wednesday.