Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have opened up double-digit leads in New York ahead of the state’s April 19 primary, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.
“The road to the convention goes through New York for both the Democrats and Republicans,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted this survey. “Right now, the front-runners look like they will erase recent setbacks and add significantly to their delegate margins.”
In the Republican race, Trump gets support from 54 percent of likely Republican primary voters – followed by John Kasich at 21 percent and Ted Cruz at 18 percent.
If Trump wins with more than 50 percent of the vote both statewide and in each of New York’s 27 congressional districts, he’ll walk away with all of the state’s 95 delegates – more than making up for what he lost last week in Colorado and Wisconsin.
Sixty-four percent of likely New York Republican voters say the Republican Party should still nominate Trump for president if he’s won the most delegates but not enough to be nominated on the first ballot, versus 28 percent who believe the party should nominate someone else under those circumstances.
Clinton up 14 points over Sanders in the Empire State
In the Democratic race, Clinton is ahead of Bernie Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters by 14 points, 55 percent to 41 percent.
Clinton leads Sanders among African Americans (68 percent to 28 percent), those ages 45 and older (66 percent to 30 percent) and women (58 percent to 38 percent).
Sanders, meanwhile, holds the advantage among those younger than 45 (62 percent to 37 percent) and those who describe themselves as “very liberal” (59 percent to 40 percent). The two are running roughly even among men and Latinos.
Geographically, Clinton is ahead of Sanders in New York City (58 percent to 39 percent) and in the suburbs (61 percent to 36 percent), but Sanders holds a one-point lead in Upstate New York (49 percent to 48 percent).
Strikingly, 30 percent of likely Democratic voters who support Sanders say they wouldn’t support Clinton in a general election, compared with 15 percent of Clinton voters who say that about Sanders.
Yet both Clinton and Sanders easily beat Trump, Cruz and Kasich in hypothetical general-election matchups in the blue state of New York.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll was conducted April 6-10 of 557 likely Democratic primary voters (margin of error plus-minus 4.2 percentage points), 259 likely Republican primary voters (plus-minus 6.1 percentage points) and 1,987 registered voters (plus-minus 2.2 percentage points).