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NBC/Marist Polls: Republicans Have Edge in KY, GA, LA

Image: Mitch McConnell Campaigns Across Kentucky As Midterm Election Nears

LEXINGTON, KY - OCTOBER 31: Bumper sticks for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) sit on a table with Friends of Coal advocacy stickers during a campaign stop at SRC of Lexington, Inc. in Lexington, Kentucky on October 31, 2014. With less than a week remaining until election day McConnell maintains a slight edge over Democratic challenger Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes in recent polls. (Photo by Luke Sharrett/Getty Images) Luke Sharrett / Getty Images

Meet the Pollsters: State of the 2014 Midterms 4:37

Just days before the midterm elections, Republican Senate candidates are in strong positions in three key Southern states, putting the GOP well within striking distance of regaining control of the upper chamber, according to brand-new NBC News/Marist polls.

  • In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leads Democrat Alison Grimes by nine points among likely voters, 50 percent to 41 percent.
  • In Georgia, Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn 48 percent to 44 percent.
  • And while Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana leads in a three-way contest with 44 percent of the vote, she trails in a hypothetical runoff against either Republican candidate –Rep. Bill Cassidy or Tea Party candidate Rob Maness.

Loses in these states would complicate Democrats’ path to keeping their majority, given that they need to hold Republican gains to fewer than six seats (or seven, if Kansans reject their incumbent senator and the winner caucuses with the Democrats).

Already, Republicans are the favorites to pick up seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. That means that they need to win another three states – out of Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina and New Hampshire – to gain the majority, plus not lose any seats they currently control like Georgia and Kentucky.

A major factor bogging down Democrats in these states polled by NBC/Marist: President Barack Obama. His approval lags at just 41 percent in Georgia, 32 percent in Kentucky and 39 percent in Louisiana – three states that he lost by wide margins in the 2008 and 2012 elections.

Chuck Todd Meets the Candidates 3:39

Kentucky

Among likely voters, McConnell gets 50 percent to Grimes’s 41 percent, a very slight shift from a 47/39 split when NBC/Marist polled the race in early September.

Both candidates remain underwater in their favorability ratings. 49 percent have an unfavorable impression of McConnell, compared to 44 percent who give him a thumbs up; Grimes gets a 47 percent negative rating with just 42 percent seeing her in a favorable light.

The most important issue to Kentucky voters, as it has been in all of our NBC/Marist state polling, is job creation and economic growth, with 22 percent of respondents citing it as the most important factor in deciding their congressional vote. Eighteen percent cited “breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington to get things done.”

Georgia

Republican David Perdue captures 48 percent of likely voters in the new NBC/Marist poll, compared to Democrat Michelle Nunn’s 44 percent. Three percent goes to libertarian Amanda Swafford.

Like in Louisiana, the Georgia race goes to a runoff if no candidate reaches 50 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between just Perdue and Nunn, the Republican leads 49 percent to 46 percent.

Both candidates are reasonably well-liked. Forty-seven percent have a favorable impression of Perdue, compared to 42 percent who have an unfavorable one; Nunn has a 49 percent favorable rating compared to 39 percent who view her negatively.

In the state’s closely-watched governor’s race, incumbent Republican Gov. Nathan Deal gets 48 percent, while Democratic challenger Jason Carter gets 43 percent. Libertarian Andrew Hunt snags three percent.

In a hypothetical runoff, Deal leads 50 percent to Carter’s 46 percent.

Louisiana

In a three way contest, incumbent Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu gets 44 percent, while Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy gets 36 percent and Tea Party ally Rob Maness gets 15 percent.

In head-to-head matchups pitting Landrieu against either GOP candidate, both Cassidy and Maness receive 50 percent support, while Landrieu performs almost identically against either Republican – at 45 and 46 percent, respectively.

Partly because he’s less well known in the state, Cassidy enjoys a better favorable rating (45 percent favorable/ 41 percent unfavorable) than Landrieu (44 percent favorable / 50 percent unfavorable). Landrieu was first elected in 1996 and has survived two competitive elections since.