Buy iPhone 4S or wait for iPhone 5?

Wilson Rothman NBC News

Oct. 5, 2011 at 2:19 PM ET

Apple

Okay, okay, you wanted some kind of super-awesome phone yesterday, and you got what looked like the phone that's been out 16 months. You wanted, nay, deserve an iPhone 5. And you'll get it. Next year. But some people really need a phone now, and shouldn't wait.

Time to buy an iPhone 4S?
I suspect that Apple will snap back to its mid-summer launch schedule next year, and have a fully redesigned, larger-screened, 4G-compatible iPhone 5 out then — and no sooner. That's a long wait, especially for people who have already been waiting. And while it's a big expense, it's your phone, your camera, your camcorder, your personal information manager, your media player and your GPS navigator all rolled into one. It replaces so many other gadgets, it's worth spending money on.

But there are people who should keep waiting, and others who should go for it now. I am going to buy one, because I want the 8-megapixel camera and the Siri voice-activated personal assistant, and I have been waiting to leave AT&T, because calls drop constantly in my home. A Verizon global iPhone is what makes sense for me, even if it still doesn't have simultaneous talk and Web access. I will bite. Will you? Here are my suggestions:

iPhone 4 owners: No. Generally speaking, unless you're switching carriers like me, you should not upgrade. You have a sexy-looking phone with a beautiful screen, and so will iPhone 4S owners. When you upgrade to iOS 5 (available Oct. 12), you will experience most of the latest iPhone software advantages. The only thing you're missing, software-wise, is the 4S-only Siri personal voice-activated assistant. The speed advantage that will be apparent on AT&T's network (but not Verizon's or Sprint's) is decent, but it's not a real 4G leap. The improved antenna design, likewise, will probably not mean fewer dropped calls on AT&T, since it's generally understood that that's a network issue. And for Verizon iPhone 4 owners, sheesh, you just bought the thing. Hold your horses!
iPhone 3GS and 3G owners: Yes. Even though the 3GS is listed as compatible with the iOS 5 upgrade, it's not advisable, since it demands a lot of an older machine. 3G owners can't even get the upgrade, and why have an iPhone if you can't get the amazing software functionality it brings? And if you waited out the entire iPhone 4 period, any excuse that you're holding out for iPhone 5 just doesn't hold water. You're definitely at a point now where you are eligible for upgrading pricing, and you can even switch to another carrier without a penalty. So what's stopping you?
Family-plan customers: Yes. The fun thing about a family plan is that there are generally at least two people with different phone interests: Without getting into gender stereotypes, let's just say Person A wants the latest and greatest, while Person B just wants something that works and looks nice. This is a very cool situation, because it means that Person A can buy a shiny new phone every year, and hand over last year's model — as long as it's in acceptable condition! — to Person B. Win-win, unless the beloved Person B is as big a hardware freak as you, I mean, Person A.
Sprint customers: Yes. You have been waiting for ages for this thing to happen, and now Apple has brought the latest and greatest model to your carrier. Perhaps waiting this long means you can easily wait another 9 to 12 months for the iPhone 5. But there's no guarantee that Apple will even build a 4G model for Sprint, since it uses a different 4G technology than the other carriers. If you haven't already bought a Samsung 4G Epic Touch or HTC Evo 3D, I say it's iPhone time.
Android super-phone owners: No. You guys are looking for raw horsepower and a fast network connection, not to mention some customizability and unfettered use of apps, no matter the dangers. You either know what you are doing or are gleefully reckless, and you're loving the Android. There's nothing wrong with that, and you should keep on keepin' on.
Current cheap-o phone owners: Maybe. Whether you have a nearly free Android phone, a BlackBerry or a plain old dumbphone, you are clearly waiting for something. If you are a Sprint customer waiting for the iPhone to come to your carrier, now's your chance. If you're a T-Mobile customer, it might be time to re-evaluate your relationship with the carrier (because there probably won't ever be a T-Mobile iPhone, at least not until the proposed merger with AT&T happens or is permanently kiboshed). If you've been holding out for some messianic phone to emerge from the heavens thronged by a host of angels, well, you may have to wait longer. Possibly forever.

Why no iPhone 5 now?
Bear in mind, this was no last-minute bait-and-switch. It's pretty clear now that Apple was going with a 4S for 2011 all along. The thing that threw off everybody (including me) was the delay. If Apple had held an event in June, like they have the past four years, speculation would have been more centered around a 4S model. After all, we knew Apple wasn't excited about jumping into 4G this year, since it can have battery drain and other network-related issues. And aside from that and a larger screen, today's leading Android phones hold no particular competitive advantage over the 4S.

Apple probably delayed the 4S launch to give Verizon time to sell the iPhone 4 — it would have been a dirty move to let Verizon in on iPhone 4, then drop new phones on them just four months later. Steve Jobs' departure (and Tim Cook's ascension) was just a coincidence, one that had no impact on the product release. Make no mistake, this was a Steve Jobs-approved move, made months before he resigned.

Fully redesigning a phone takes a huge amount of resources, and is likely something that Apple won't do every year. However real or imagined the Antennagate scandal was — where people criticized the iPhone 4 antenna design for dropping calls on AT&T — it's an illustration of the danger of the new look. Better to release a model then spend your resources improving it for the following year, like they have with the 4S.

And while carriers like to sell shiny new products, it's not in their interest to have a new look every year either. Apple's phones are so desired that current iPhone owners want to upgrade to the next model. But carriers need you to keep paying for the same phone for nearly two years in order to pay off the full cost of the phone. Offering every customer upgrade pricing yearly, for every new iPhone costs carriers money and resources (and so does fielding a flood of complaints for not offering it).

The 4S is no slouch, folks. In fact, for the greater audience, the only popularly demanded feature it's missing is a larger screen. Most people won't notice the 8-megapixel camera, dual-core processor, HDMI high-def video output and bumped-up GSM data performance (for AT&T customers), so why would they notice 4G or near-field communication or some of the other rumored technologies that were left out?

While the 4S fallout is understandable, it's an overreaction. Apple is as much a fashion designer as it is a tech company and entertainment retailer, and the company's leadership has to understand that this, more than anything, was the cause.

More on the newest member of the iPhone family, from msnbc.com:

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