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Are Democratic prospects looking up in Ohio?

Another day, another encouraging Ohio poll for Democrats.

A day after a Cincinnati Enquirer/Suffolk poll showed Democrats ahead in Ohio’s Senate and gubernatorial contests, a new Quinnipiac poll released today finds the same result, although the gubernatorial contest is within the margin of error.

According to the Quinnipiac survey, Democrat Richard Cordray gets support from 42 percent of registered voters in the gubernatorial race, versus 40 percent for Republican Mike DeWine. (The Enquirer/Suffolk poll had it Cordray 43 percent, DeWine 36 percent among likely voters.)

And in Quinnipiac’s test of the Senate race, it’s Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, at 51 percent among registered voters and Republican challenger Jim Renacci at 34 percent. (The Enquirer/Suffolk poll had it Brown 53 percent, Renacci 37 percent.)

In maybe the Quinnipiac poll’s most striking numbers, President Trump’s job-approval rating in Ohio is at 43 percent, while outgoing Republican Gov. John Kasich’s is at 52 percent. 

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Carrie Dann

DNC announces 2020 convention dates

The Democratic National Committee announced Friday that its 2020 presidential nominating convention will be held July 13 to July 16, 2020. 

That's earlier than past years; the 2016 convention was held in late July, while the previous two nomination gatherings were held in September and August, respectively. 

The earlier date comes as Democrats are bracing for a crowded and contentious presidential primary. 

The DNC has not yet determined where the convention will be held. Possible contenders are Atlanta, Denver, Houston, New York, San Francisco, Milwaukee, Miami Beach, and Birmingham.

Carrie Dann

GOP 'Cult of Personality'? The writer of the 1988 rock hit weighs in on music in the age of Trump

On Wednesday, we in the NBC News political unit wrote about how the GOP has fully embraced loyalty to Trump as a foundational principle of the party. And in our podcast The Lid, we had a little fun with the idea, including a shoutout to the 1988 smash hit “Cult of Personality” by Living Colour.

Today, we got a call from Vernon Reid — the founder of the band, the writer of the famous rock anthem and one of the greatest guitarists of all time. And Reid had some thoughts about how the song is applicable to the present day.

“I would say that, for a certain segment of the populace, our president is beyond criticism,” Reid said of President Trump. “Anytime someone is in a place where nothing that they say or no action that they take will be criticized by their followers, that’s very, very troubling.”

Reid added that the music world at large — with a few exceptions (including rapper and Pulitzer Prize winner Kendrick Lamar as well as musician and film director Boots Riley) — has been hesitant to engage with politics in the way that his band and others did in the late 1980s.

“It’s a different time in which people are less inclined to put themselves in the crosshairs of social media,” he said. “In general, there’s been very little music that’s really taken on exactly what’s going on.”

That trend has accelerated the age of “weaponized” Facebook and Twitter, Reid says, but he traces the hesitation of musical artists to speak out about politics to the backlash against the Dixie Chicks for criticizing President George W. Bush.

“The reaction was really intense,” he said of the 2003 controversy. “To their credit, they stood their ground. But things like that can have a chilling effect on other people.” 

Spicer to join pro-Trump super PAC

Former White House press secretary Sean Spicer has a new gig — but it's not far from the Trump orbit. 

Spicer will be a senior adviser and spokesman for America First Action, the main super PAC supporting Trump. The group announced Spicer's move Thursday, calling him "one of the most well-known and well-respected political insiders of our time." 

Since departing the White House nearly a year ago, Spicer has raised money on behalf of numerous Republican candidates in addition to creating his own consulting firm. 

California initiative to split state into three makes November ballot

In November, Californians will be able to vote for an initiative that could divide their state into three separate entities: Northern California, California, and Southern California.

But the idea to split California into three states with similar populations and political representation is a long way from becoming a reality.

Venture capitalist Tim Draper, the man behind the “Cal 3” proposal, collected more than 402,468 signatures by Tuesday, enough to qualify it for the general election ballot in November. 

While the chances of Cal 3 passing are slim, the hypothetical impact would be felt both on a state and federal level.

Draper believes that Californian citizens would benefit from three smaller governments. In the text of the initiative, he writes that “vast parts of California are poorly served by a representative government dominated by a large number of elected representatives from a small part of our state, both geographically and economically.”

The idea of dividing California into smaller states isn't new. In fact, attempts to slice up the Golden State go back to 1850, the year it became the 31st state. But even if Californians vote for the initiative this fall, the measure faces an even bigger hurdle — under the Constitution, it would have to be ratified by Congress.

That's a heavy lift. Dividing California into three states would add four more senators to the US Senate and would have huge consequences for the Electoral College. California has 55 electoral votes, but Cal 3 would have a combined total of 59. There is also the potential of Southern California becoming a swing state, which would garner attention from both Democrats and Republicans.

University of Illinois College of Law professor Vikram Amar, who has written extensively about Draper’s plans, said the potential of Republicans losing ground in the Senate, combined with Democrats' fear of losing a huge state rich in Electoral College votes, would cause plenty of hesitation from lawmakers even if it were to even make to a congressional vote. 

“I think those partisan implications are going to leave people somewhat conservative in the sense of not wanting to go forward with radical change," he told NBC News. 

Amar also explained that there is a lot that ties California together, including the university system, income taxes, inland counties benefiting from the profits of the major cities, and the state’s water system. 

 

Democratic White House hopefuls hit progressive high notes

WASHINGTON — Five prominent senators with eyes on the White House came here Wednesday facing a challenge from some of the most potent forces in the Democratic party to offer a unifying vision for the progressive movement that is about more than just opposing President Donald Trump.

In what amounted to an early round of candidate speed dating, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Kamala Harris each made a 10-minute pitch at the “We The People” Summit, and then took questions from attendees representing groups like the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, Sierra Club, Indivisible and the Communications Workers of America.

From Booker, there was a pitch centered around addressing criminal justice reform and the systemic racism that is holding communities of color back. The New Jersey senator also sought to redefine patriotism at a time when President Donald Trump has castigated NFL athletes for refusing to stand during the playing of the National Anthem.

“Patriotism is love of country — and you cannot love your country unless you love your fellow countrymen and women,” he said. “And before you tell me about your religion, first show it to me in how you treat other people.”

Warren praised the role of labor unions in fighting for better wages and worker protections for a crowd that also included a regional chapter of the SEIU. And she trained her fire on what she said was corruption across government, including the federal courts, citing a recent high court ruling in an arbitration case that will make it harder for non-union workers to take collective action to fight alleged violations of workplace laws.

“I’m angry, but I’m ready to fight back,” she said. “I’m here because I believe in democracy and I believe in fighting back. We’re going to hose out this cesspool of corruption.”

For Sanders, who won the endorsement of the CWA in 2016 in his nomination fight against Hillary Clinton, the setting allowed him to resurface his policies that are increasingly mainstream within the Democratic Party, even as he remains an independent. And he continued to push the party further toward his more populist stances.

“In a democracy we may disagree on this or that issue but the results should be based on one person, one vote, not the Koch Brothers and other billionaires pouring $400 million into this midterm election. Not candidates going all over the country not to talk to working people, but to sit in the living room of a handful of billionaires who will tell them what they, billionaires, want,” he said.

On that point, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York also called for larger corporations to do more to share financial successes with their own workers before shareholders. She called income inequality “the greatest risk we have to our democracy right now.”

“We have to change how we think about our economy and reward work,” she said.

Harris, the final speaker, spoke in more general terms about the need for Democrats and progressives to fight for the ideals they feel are core to our national identity, and have at times uncomfortable conversations — “Speak the truth” — with Americans about what was holding back a great nation.

“We will fight for our country. We will show what it means to love our country. We will take action,” she said.

Mark Murray

Are Democratic prospects looking up in Ohio?

Another day, another encouraging Ohio poll for Democrats.

A day after a Cincinnati Enquirer/Suffolk poll showed Democrats ahead in Ohio’s Senate and gubernatorial contests, a new Quinnipiac poll released today finds the same result, although the gubernatorial contest is within the margin of error.

According to the Quinnipiac survey, Democrat Richard Cordray gets support from 42 percent of registered voters in the gubernatorial race, versus 40 percent for Republican Mike DeWine. (The Enquirer/Suffolk poll had it Cordray 43 percent, DeWine 36 percent among likely voters.)

And in Quinnipiac’s test of the Senate race, it’s Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, at 51 percent among registered voters and Republican challenger Jim Renacci at 34 percent. (The Enquirer/Suffolk poll had it Brown 53 percent, Renacci 37 percent.)

In maybe the Quinnipiac poll’s most striking numbers, President Trump’s job-approval rating in Ohio is at 43 percent, while outgoing Republican Gov. John Kasich’s is at 52 percent. 

Mark Murray

GOP has higher turnout in North Dakota’s Senate primaries

While reading the primary turnout tea leaves isn’t predictive of the general election outcome in November, Republicans are giddy about their higher turnout in last night’s Senate primaries in North Dakota.

Nearly 70,000 people cast votes in the Republican primary, and almost 61,000 went for nominee Kevin Cramer.

That’s compared with 37,000 voters on the Democratic side, nearly all for Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D.

Of course, North Dakota is a heavily leaning GOP state — Trump won it by 36 points in 2016, 63 percent to 27 percent.

But the turnout in November will be much higher than the 100,000-plus who participated in last night’s primaries. In 2012, a presidential year, more than 300,000 North Dakotans cast ballots. And Heitkamp won the race, 50 percent to 49 percent.

Carrie Dann

Democrats pick up 43rd state legislative flip

Democrats have picked up their 43th legislative flip of the cycle after a win in a state Senate race in Wisconsin last night.

Democrat Caleb Frostman narrowly defeated Republican Andre Jacque in the 1st Senate District special election, making him the first Democrat to represent the district since the 1970s.

Republicans held on to a state assembly seat elsewhere in the state.

The pair of special elections was one of the most anticipated of the summer by Democratic groups working to turn red legislative districts blue. Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Republicans in the Wisconsin state Senate tried to block the elections from occurring at all until ordered by a judge to schedule them. 

Carrie Dann

Trump slams Sanford in SC-1, backs Arrington

In his second last-minute endorsement of the afternoon, President Donald Trump is backing Katie Arrington in her primary against his sometimes-critic incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford. 

What's more, his unendorsement of Sanford includes an allusion to the "hiking the Appalachian Trail" sex scandal that rocked Sanford's career and his marriage when he admitted to an extramarital affair with an Argentian woman. 

It's an extraordinary push by a sitting president against an incumbent member of his own party, although the endorsement comes just three hours before polls close in South Carolina. 

We wrote about Sanford's last minute ad campaign yesterday here. 

Arrington has been running ads highlighting Sanford’s criticisms of the president and saying she’ll “work with President Trump, not against him."

And she’s been making her own digs at the extramarital affair that earned Sanford national ridicule in 2009. "Mark Sanford and the career politicians cheated on us," she says in another ad. "Bless his heart, but it's time for Mark Sanford to take a hike. For real this time."

Carrie Dann

Trump backs Laxalt hours before polls close in NV-GOV

Presidential endorsements can be a great boon to political candidates who are competing in a place where the commander-in-chief is popular and who perhaps need a little boost to get over the finish line. 

Neither of those criteria particularly apply, though, to President Donald Trump's latest nod. 

Hours before polls close in Nevada, Trump tweeted his support for state attorney general Adam Laxalt, who is far and away the frontrunner to win the gubernatorial nomination for the GOP. 

Not only does he not really need the boost — it could come back to haunt him. Trump had a net negative approval rating in the state as of last month. Hillary Clinton won Nevada by two points in 2016, and Barack Obama bested Mitt Romney by six. 

And, as longtime Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston says, Laxalt rarely mentions Trump at all.