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Bredesen internal poll shows race with Blackburn deadlocked
Leigh Ann Caldwell
1317d ago / 3:05 AM UTC
New internal polling conducted for Tennessee Democrat Phil Bredesen's Senate campaign shows the race effectively tied less than one month before Election Day.
A memo authored by Bredesen pollster Frederick Yang and obtained by NBC News shows the race "essentially deadlocked," with the Democrat trailing Republican candidate Rep. Marsha Blackburn by one point, 47-48 percent of likely voters. The margin comes from an average of two polls taken in October.
That margin is well within the margin-of-error of 4 percentage points, and is slightly smaller than the 2 percentage-point margin of the campaign's late September polling. The memo was sent to Bredesen supporters and advisers.
But the results show Bredesen in better shape than other recent polls. Recent polling from Fox News, CBS News/YouGov and the New York Times/Siena College showed Blackburn leading by margins between 5 and 14 points, while a CNN poll from September found Bredesen leading by 5 points.
Bredesen's pollsters at Garin Hart Yang Research Group write in the memo that the race is "polarized among the most partisan voters" and that only "a handful" of voters remain undecided, stressing that turnout is likely going to determine the winner of the open seat.
The survey also shows that Bredesen is viewed much more positively by independent voters than Blackburn. Forty-eight percent view him positively compared to 28 percent for Blackburn.
Bredesen, the former governor of Tennessee, has put the state, which voted for President Trump by 26 points, in play for Democrats.
Early voting begins in Tennessee Wednesday.
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David Perdue lags far behind Gov. Kemp in ad spending Georgia's GOP primary
6d ago / 4:16 PM UTC
Ahead of Georgia’s May 24 primary, former Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., is falling behind in the race for the state's GOP gubernatorial nomination.
He’s spent no money on ads since April 29, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking firm. In total, he’s spent $1.2 million on ads, a relatively low amount for that race.
Perdue is backed by former President Donald Trump and is challenging Gov. Brain Kemp, who drew ire from Trump in 2020 when he refused to overturn the results of the presidential election in the state, which was carried by President Joe Biden.
So far this cycle, Kemp has spent over $5 million on ads. He’s recently pivoted his focus to the general election this fall, where Democrats are leading in ad spending by the millions, rather than spending money against Perdue.
Recent polls show that Kemp not only leads Perdue, but he also could clear 50 percent of the primary vote, meaning he would avoid a runoff election. A runoff would take place on June 21 if neither candidate clears that 50 percent threshold.
If he wins outright, Kemp will face Democrat Stacey Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 election, where Abrams lost by less than two percentage points. Abrams is already the de facto Democratic nominee, facing no challengers in the primary contest.
On top of Kemp’s ad spending, the Republican Governors Association has spent on his behalf, pouring over $4.6 million on the airwaves to back Kemp.
But Abrams and her allies are far and away the leaders in ad spending in the race so far. Abrams’ campaign has spent $7.8 million on the airwaves and Fair Fight Action has spent an additional $6.6 million on ads supporting Abrams.
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Midterm Roundup: A busy primary night
Ben Kamisar and Bridget Bowman
6d ago / 2:30 PM UTC
Tuesday's primaries across the country featured some key races in places like Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Oregon, Idaho and North Carolina. In Oregon, President Joe Biden's endorsement doesn't seem to have helped Rep. Kurt Schrader. Though the race hasn't been called yet, he's trailing his challenger, Jamie McLeod-Skinner by over 20 percentage points.
And in Pennsylvania, former President Donald Trump's endorsed candidate for Senate, Mehmet Oz, hasn't run away with it. The race is still too close to call, and former hedge fund manager David McCormick is trailing Oz by only 0.20 percentage points.
Here are some other key results from Tuesday’s wild primaries, with NBC News’ projection in parentheses, as they stand now:
Here are some other key results from Tuesday’s wild primaries, with NBC News’ projection in parentheses, as they stand now:
Kentucky-03 (Democratic): Morgan McGarvey 63.3 percent (winner), Attica Scott 36.7 percent.
Idaho-02 (GOP): Mike Simpson 54.6 percent (winner), Bryan Smith 32.7.
North Carolina-01 (GOP): Sandy Smith 30.7 percent, Sandy Roberson 26.1 percent (race has not been called).
North Carolina-13 (GOP): Bo Hines 32.1 percent (winner), DeVan Barbour 22.7 percent.
North Carolina-13 (Democratic): Wiley Nickel 51.7 percent (winner), Sam Searcy 23 percent.
North Carolina-14 (Democratic): Jeff Jackson 86.4 percent (winner), Ram Mammadov 13.8 percent.
Both districts include parts of Allegheny County, the home of Pittsburgh, but the two offer very different terrains for Democrats.
Not long ago, this entire area was Democratic. In the 2000 presidential race, Democrat Al Gore carried Allegheny County by 16 points, while carrying Beaver by 9 points. But 2020 showed how the map had changed. Joe Biden carried Allegheny by 20 points, but Donald Trump carried Beaver by 18 points.
What happened? Pittsburgh, still considered the “steel city” by many Americans, has morphed into a medical and tech center. About 43 percent of the 25-and-over population has a bachelor’s degree. But many of the suburbs around the city, like those in Beaver, are still rooted in the area’s industrial past; about 26 percent of adults in Beaver have a bachelor’s degree.
The emerging differences are clear to see on the ground.
Last week in Pittsburgh, we met with Jasiri X, the co-founder and CEO of 1Hood, a community organizing group in the city. His concern is whether Democrats are doing enough on the issues that Black voters face on a day-to-day basis.
“2018 was this very pivotal year for Pittsburgh,” he said. “We had a very high profile police killing of a young man named Antwon Rose. ... We also had the Tree of Life massacre later on that year."
"It began to be like, ‘OK, well, protesting by itself isn't enough," he continued. "Can we move to come together to actually create and change laws?’” He says that these voters haven’t seen the return on their investment and want Democrats to push harder on progressive policies instead of being “passive.”
An hour drive away from the city, in the far northern reaches of the northwestern Pittsburgh suburbs — the United Steelworkers Local 1016 held a meeting in Wheatland, Pennsylvania. There, we heard a very different message of what the country needs: Trump’s new brand of union workers were more worried about issues like the emerging Supreme Court decision on abortion.
United Steelworkers District 10 Director Bernie Hall studied his crowd of union leaders closely, taking stock of what political questions arose. A Biden voter himself, he was worried about candidates increasingly going to “extremes.” If the Supreme Court can overturn a law like Roe v. Wade from 1973, what about the 1935 Wagner Act that said employees have a right to establish a union?
“We’ll have dozens of these [meetings] across the state,” he said. “I'm concerned that people aren't getting facts in general, not only about President Biden but just about the political process and issues that face our country.”
In Aliquippa, after the local steel mill shut down, nature is slowly reclaiming empty homes and many of residents of this hard-hit African-American community are well beneath the poverty line.
Aliquippa Mayor Dwan Walker (D) urged Democrats to unite the rural voters and urban progressives. The way forward in Western Pennsylvania, he says, is to remind people the area is the birthplace of the unions.
“There’s 72,000 Democrats [here that are] ‘light blue’ [Reagan Democrat]” he said. “But they’ll vote Republican just based off the message. The message just has to be claimed.”
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Oz and McCormick backers have dominated ad spending but pro-Barnette group made late push
7d ago / 4:01 PM UTC
Groups backing businessman David McCormick and television doctor Mehmet Oz alone make up 88 percent of all ad spending in Pennsylvania's GOP Senate primary, data from the ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics shows.
But a late push by a powerful ally of Republican activist Kathy Barnette meant that she and her allies actually outspent the pro-Oz effort in the race's final week.
Overall, the pro-McCormick effort has spent $32.8 million on ads through Tuesday, with $16.9 million coming from the Honor Pennsylvania super PAC and $12 million from McCormick's campaign alone (two other super PACs added another $3.9 million).
While Oz's campaign spent $13.2 million, more than McCormick's campaign, he had a far smaller, $4.3 million push from super PACs, bringing the pro-Oz ad spending total to $17.5 million.
And Barnette's campaign, which has spent just $210,00 on ads, was boosted by a $2.1 million, last-minute ad buy from Club for Growth Action.
While Pennsylvanians have been inundated with ads for McCormick and Oz for months, that late push by the Club, coming amid Barnette's late surge, made her competitive with her rivals on the airwaves for the final week. The pro-McCormick effort still led the pack with $4 million spent over the last seven days, but the Club's spending pushed the pro-Barnette effort into second place for the final week with $2.2 million in ad spending, followed by the pro-Oz $1.4 million.
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Where is Trump’s endorsement power on the line in Tuesday’s primaries?
7d ago / 3:19 PM UTC
Trump has endorsed 25 candidates in Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Idaho, with a handful of races testing the former president's power over the GOP.
All but six of those endorsements are incumbent lawmakers who are typically favored to win their primaries. Trump has backed eight candidates in North Carolina, eight in Pennsylvania, six in Kentucky and three in Idaho.
The most closely-watched tests of Trump’s endorsements will come in statewide contests, particularly in Pennsylvania. There Trump has backed celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz in the open Senate race, but conservative commentator Kathy Barnette has surged late in the race as she tries to capture grassroots enthusiasm. Trump made a last-minute endorsement in the governor’s race, backing controversial state Sen. Doug Mastriano over the weekend after Mastriano emerged as a frontrunner.
Trump has also weighed in on North Carolina’s open Senate race, backing GOP Rep. Ted Budd over former Gov. Pat McCrory and former Rep. Mark Walker. Budd has also benefited from $11.8 million in outside spending from Club for Growth Action, which has launched ads attacking Budd’s opponents, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact.
In Idaho, Trump has backed Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin in a primary against GOP Gov. Brad Little. Trump didn’t mention LIttle in his statement backing McGeachin in November, when he described the lieutenant governor as someone who has been “a true supporter of MAGA since the very beginning.” Little has outspent McGeachin on the airwaves, spending $945,000 to McGeachin’s $215,000, per AdImpact.
Trump has also weighed in on a handful of notable House races. He backed controversial GOP Rep Madison Cawthorn in North Carolina’s 11th District. Cawthorn’s opponents, including state Sen. Chuck Edwards, have painted Cawthorn as an attention-seeker who hasn’t prioritized his district.
The GOP primary in North Carolina’s 13th District will also test Trump’s endorsement after he decided to back law student Bo Hines in the competitive, open seat race. Club for Growth has spent nearly $1.3 million boosting Hines, who faces self-funding attorney Kelly Daughtry, veteran Kent Keirsey, and former Rep. Renee Ellmers in the primary.
In Pennsylvania’s 8th District, Trump has backed political consultant Jim Bognet to take on Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright. Bognet lost to Cartwright by nearly 4 points in a district Trump would have won by 3 points had the new congressional map been in place in 2020. Bognet faces former Hazleton Mayor Mike Marsicano, who is also a former Democrat, in the GOP primary.
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Outside group launches $6 million ad campaign supporting Ron Johnson
7d ago / 2:32 PM UTC
One Nation, a super PAC with ties to the conservative Senate Leadership Fund, is launching a $6 million ad campaign to back Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., today.
The group’s first ad will run for eight weeks in Wisconsin and highlights Johnson’s efforts to curb inflation.
“Gas, groceries, rent. Everything costs more. Senator Ron Johnson is fighting back,” a narrator in the ad says.
The narrator adds, “The D.C. liberals' spending spree is out of control. Jacking up inflation on Wisconsin families. Wiping out wage gains and making it harder for families to make ends meet.”
Johnson is running for a third term this year and while he faces no significant primary challenge, Democrats are eyeing his seat as one they can flip in November. So far, there are three main candidates vying for the Democratic nomination for Senate — state treasurer Sarah Godlewski, businessman Alex Lasry and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.
Wisconsin’s primary election is August 9.
So far, Lasry has spent the most on ads of any candidate, spending $5.6 million on the airwaves, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking firm. Johnson himself has spent over $5.1 million on ads.
Godlewski and Barnes trail, with Godlewski having spent $1.9 million on ads so far and Barnes having spent under $100,000 on ads.
Barnes, however, has racked up significant progressive endorsements, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., planning to campaign for him soon, according to NBC News’ Shaq Brewster.
One Nation, however, will be competing against an anti-Johnson outside group, Opportunity Wisconsin. The group hasn’t explicitly backed any of the Democratic candidates, but they have been running ads against Johnson since early this year.
The commercials allege Johnson used loopholes in legislation he supported to make money for himself. So far, the group has spent the most of any candidate or group on the airwaves, spending $6.4 million.
Like One Nation, Opportunity Wisconsin is an advocacy organization that does not have to disclose its donors, though the group’s website claims they’re, “made up of a diverse group of leaders who span the urban/rural divide and live and work in communities and industries through Wisconsin.”
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Barnette says she won't support "globalist" candidates if she loses Pa. GOP primary
8d ago / 6:52 PM UTC
Republican Kathy Barnette, who has been surging in the final days before the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary race, threw cold water on the idea of her backing rivals Mehmet Oz or David McCormick if she loses the primary election.
"I am not a globalist, both of them are. They have very strong ties to the World Economic Forum. I've heard McCormick several times espouse the glowing benefits of ESG scores --environmental social governance scores. If you just look at who they are, Mehmet Oz is not only an American but also Turkish as well. That's a very important distinction," Barnette said during an interview with SiriusXM's Breitbart News Daily.
When asked subsequently if she'd back the eventual GOP nominee if she loses Tuesday, Barnette replied: "I have no intention of supporting globalists."
"I don't think we have room to just vote for any old warm body with an 'R' next to their name. I think we can do better than that."
During the interview, Barnette went onto criticize Oz and McCormick as not authentic conservatives, as well as criticizing the idea that they're electable because they have deep pockets to loan to their campaigns.
"I have been an America First individual long before I decided to run for this race. And now, these two particular men, because it's convenient, because we have this seat open, they are now presenting themselves as Trump, card-carrying members of the Patriot Party," Barnette said.
"That's not how they've lived their life prior to stepping into this role."
In recent interviews with NBC News, both Oz and McCormick raised questions about Barnette's candidacy.
"He's not been transparent. And every time she answers a question, she raises a lot more," Oz told NBC's Dasha Burns last weekend before saying he would support her if she wins.
And Monday, McCormick criticized Barnette for losing her 2020 congressional bid.
"I've gotten to know Kathy on the campaign trail, I respect her personal story. She's been tested, she was tested 18 months ago when she ran for Congress and lost by 20 percentage points," McCormick said.
—Dasha Burns contributed
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Poll: Democrats are becoming more progressive, while most Republicans want Trump to lead GOP
8d ago / 5:54 PM UTC
Ahead of a slew of notable primary races taking place over the next two weeks, the latest NBC News poll finds that the Democratic primary electorate has become more progressive since 2020.
It also shows a majority of Republican primary voters wanting Trump to continue leading their party.
Now neither development should be that surprising to anyone who follows politics. But it’s instructive to see them backed up by numbers.
Per the poll, 63 percent of Democratic primary voters say they prefer a candidate who proposes larger-scale policies even if they cost more and might he harder to pass, versus 33 percent who prefer a candidate who proposes smaller-scale policies that cost less and might be easier to pass.
That’s a jump from Feb. 2020 — during the height of the Democratic presidential primary season — when 53 percent wanted candidates proposing larger-scale policies, versus 41 percent who wanted candidate with smaller-scale policies.
As for Republican primary voters, 55 percent believe the party should continue to be led by former President Donald Trump; 33 percent say he was a good president but it’s time for new leaders; and 10 percent say he was a bad president, and it’s time to move on.
On a separate question, however, 34 percent of Republicans in the poll identify themselves as more supporters of Trump, while 58 percent consider themselves more supporters of the party.
The NBC News poll was conducted May 5-7, 9-10 of 1,000 adults — including 750 on their cell phone — and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.
The margin of error for the poll’s 259 Democratic primary voters is plus-minus 6.09 percentage points, and the margin of error for the poll’s 247 Republican primary voters is plus-minus 6.24 percentage points.
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Fetterman won't appear at campaign's primary night event after last week's stroke
8d ago / 4:53 PM UTC
Pennsylvania Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman won't attend his Senate campaign's primary-election night event on Tuesday after suffering a stroke late last week.
In a press release Monday, the campaign said Fetterman's wife and "other special guests" will deliver remarks, while Fetterman himself "will not be in attendance on Tuesday as he will remain in the hospital resting and recovering."
Fetterman Sunday that he had suffered a stroke Friday, but he said that he didn't suffer "cognitive damage" and insisted he is "well on my way to full recovery." The Democrat is considered the frontrunner in the Democratic primary bid, where he's running against Rep. Conor Lamb and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta.
On Friday, I wasn’t feeling well, so I went to the hospital to get checked out.
I didn’t want to go – I didn’t think I had to – but @giselefetterman insisted, and as usual, she was right.
In Pennsylvania, Mastriano rises to top of GOP field despite little ad spending
8d ago / 4:07 PM UTC
State Sen. Doug Mastriano has established himself as a frontrunner in the GOP primary for Pennsylvania governor despite being vastly outspent on the airwaves.
Mastriano’s campaign has spent just $332,000 on ads ahead of Tuesday’s primary, accounting for just over 1 percent of the $22.7 million spent on the governor's race by the total GOP primary field, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Mastriano, who has championed former President Donald Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen, has been the target of a $1.1 million ad campaign from Pennsylvania Patriots for Election Integrity. The group has knocked Mastriano for supporting a 2019 law expanding mail voting in the state (which Mastriano has said he would reverse if elected).
Trump’s endorsement in the final days of the primary race came after he encouraged his supporters last month to reject former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain, calling McSwain a “coward” for not investigating election fraud.
Half of all ad spending in the GOP race — $11.1 million — has bolstered McSwain. But Commonwealth Leaders Fund, which has spent millions supporting McSwain, announced over the weekend that it is instead backing former Rep. Lou Barletta in an attempt to consolidate behind one Mastriano opponent.
The group’s decision comes after two other candidates, state Sen. Jake Corman and former Rep. Melissa Hart, dropped out of the race last week and endorsed Barletta, whose campaign has spent $967,000 on ads.
Aside from McSwain, the top spender in the race has been former Delaware County Councilman David White’s campaign, which has dropped nearly $5.7 million on ads so far. The conservative Club for Growth Action has spent $801,000 on an ad campaign opposing White.
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Rep. Mike Simpson is seeking to fend off primary challenger in Idaho
8d ago / 3:00 PM UTC
Rep. Mike Simpson, R-Idaho, will be defending his seat Tuesday when he faces a challenge from personal injury attorney Bryan Smith in Idaho's 2nd district GOP primary.
The two have been engaged in an intense ad war, running over a dozen unique ads combined this cycle. Most of those ads have been on the offensive, with Smith attacking Simpson over his decision to vote in favor of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Simpson has attacked Smith for his debt collection practices, featuring families in his ads who were sought after by Smith’s business to pay back small amounts.
Smith has spent over $450,000 on his ads, while Simpson has spent just over $368,000 on the airwaves, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking firm.
However, Simpson has been defended by outside groups, including the Defending main street Super PAC, which has run ads supporting him. That group has spent over $460,000 on ads in Simpson’s favor.
Defending Main Street is the political arm of the Republican Main Street Partnership and is spending in House GOP primaries across the country, including in Ohio and Minnesota.
Smith has had the backing of an outside group, too. America Proud PAC has poured $405,000 into ads supporting him in the district, accusing Simpson of being a “career politician” and a RINO (Republican In Name Only). The group is largely funded by Boise real estate developer Joe C. Russell, according to FEC filings.
Simpson has been serving in this seat since 1999, and it’s the second time he’s faced a primary challenge from Smith. In 2014, Smith ran against Simpson, but Simpson earned 61.6 percent of the vote on election night, compared to Smith’s 38.4 percent.
Though former President Donald Trump has endorsed against some members of Congress who voted in favor of the January 6 commission, he has not publicly supported either candidate in this race.