Dems outspending GOP in competitive Senate races (except Florida)

Less than five months until Election Day, Democrats are outspending Republicans over the TV and radio airwaves in the most competitive Senate contests, according to ad-spending data from Advertising Analytics.

The one exception, however, is in Florida, where Republicans and Rick Scott have outspent Democrats and incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., by nearly a 5-to-1 ratio, $17.2 million to $3.1 million. (But that’s down from the GOP’s nearly 50-to-1 advantage a month ago.)

Here’s the ad-spending data as of June 18, 2018: 

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Ben Kamisar

2020 roundup: Warren sketches out child care plan

Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren is unveiling her latest policy proposal—universal child care—as she looks to show voters the types of progressive projects her administration could fund with her tax on the richest Americans. 

The broad strokes of the plan, which Warren outlined in a Medium post on Tuesday are as follows: 

  • Universal childcare from birth until children are old enough to go to school
  • A network of licensed centers created through public-private partnerships 
  • Families making less than 200 percent above the federal poverty line receive free childcare
  • For all others, childcare costs will be capped at 7 percent of family income
  • Warren's team ballparks the program, which would not be mandatory, at about $700 billion. The campaign adds that cost would be covered through her "Ultra-millionaire tax," which she says would bring in $2.75 trillion over ten years

Read more from Warren here, and read below for more from the campaign trail: 

  • Former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who has said he'll announce his decision on 2020 by the end of the month, said that he's keeping all options open, including a presidential bid, another Senate bid, or even perhaps serving as the Democratic nominee's vice presidential pick. 
  • NBC's Benjy Sarlin joined California Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris in New Hampshire, where she pledged to "compete in New Hampshire" and "shake every hand that I possibly can" even as some question whether the state is integral to her path to the party's nomination
  • Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz's campaign welcomed Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders into the presidential race with a statement that prods at his influence pushing the Democratic Party to the left, the very leftward drift that Schultz says helped spark his potential candidacy. 
  • Kayleigh McEnany, President Trump's newly-minted reelection national press secretary, made clear on Fox News that the campaign looks at the news media as right up there with Democrats as its biggest foes.

Ben Kamisar

Hogan on challenging Trump: People are approaching me and I "haven't thrown them out" of my office

Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan suggested that he hasn't closed the door on challenging President Trump in the 2020 Republican primary as Trump opponents continue to float his name as a potential primary candidate. 

Hogan criticized Trump in a new interview with CBS News—saying that he sometimes "acts irrationally" and that he's "exaggerated what's going on at the border." But while he said that he's fielded requests from people who want him to run in the GOP presidential primary, Hogan made clear he's far from any potential run. 

"I was just sworn in a month ago for my second term. I've got a lot of work to do here in Maryland.I would say I'm being approached from a lot of different people, and I guess the best way to put it is I haven't thrown them out of my office," he said. 

When asked how the special counsel's report could impact the Republican presidential primary field, Hogan replied that "you would see a number of potential challengers in the Republican Party considering jumping in" if that was the case. 

Hogan has reportedly spoken with prominent anti-Trump Republicans like Bill Kristol, who founded "The Weekly Standard," the conservative magazine that shuttered a few months ago, 

Bernie's big bucks: Sanders raises staggering $4 million in first 12 hours after launch

UPDATED: By Wednesday morning, Sanders' campaign announced that it raised $5.9 million in the 24 hours after launching the campaign, from 225,000 individuals. The campaign also says that it secured $600,000 in monthly recurring donations. 

ORIGINAL: At 8:00 pm ET last night, Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign announced having raised more than $4 million since the start of his campaign kickoff from nearly 150,000 individuals. That’s in just 12 hours.

By comparison, Kamala Harris’ campaign raised $1.5 million in its first 24 hours; Amy Klobuchar’s reported raising more than $1 million in its first 48 hours; and Elizabeth Warren got some $300,000 from ActBlue in her first day (although that’s not a complete way to measure total fundraising).

So Bernie’s haul is VERY impressive. Then again, as a repeat candidate who’s already proved he can raise big bucks online, that kind of fundraising prowess should be expected from him.

The question we have is: If Beto O’Rourke does run, can he match or exceed Bernie’s first-day amount?


Biden: Trump administration "rooting" for demise of EU and NATO

Former Vice President Joe Biden took sharp aim at President Trump on foreign policy Tuesday at what he called an “inflection point” in America’s relationship with its allies. 

Days after he attended a major international summit in Germany, Biden noted the deep concern among allies about the United States and blasted the Trump administration for in his view “rooting” for the demise of the European Union and diminishment of NATO. 

It “is the dumbest thing in the world,” Biden said during a conversation at the University of Pennsylvania. 

He noted that Vice President Mike Pence, speaking on behalf of Trump, was received there with “deafening silence” as he “lectured” the audience, while he received a standing ovation from a bipartisan U.S. delegation and the allies in attendance. 

Biden was not asked specifically during the Q-and-A session with the university president about his 2020 plans. But with his emphasis on foreign policy and the importance of addressing middle class economic anxiety, he showcased what would be at the heart of his potential candidacy. 

Biden noted he had championed the Obama administration’s auto industry bailout but noted that economic policies have not creative enough incentive for businesses to reinvest profits into their workforce, blasting GM for having accepted the rescue package during the Great Recession but now laying off workers. 

“I’m not looking for charity. Business is not in business to be a charity,” he said. “I don’t begrudge anybody making a million or hundreds of millions of dollars. I really don’t. But I do think there’s some shared responsibility and it’s not being shared fairly for hard-working, middle class and working class people.”

Ben Kamisar

Kamala Harris: 'Medicare for All' is not socialism

California Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris defended "Medicare for All" from Republican attacks comparing it to socialism, arguing drastic steps are necessary thanks to rising healthcare costs. 

As the policy continues to gain steam in her party, Harris brushed aside that label during an interview with NBC Capitol Hill Correspondent Kasie Hunt during Harris's trip to New Hampshire as part of her presidential campaign. 

"No, no. It’s about providing health care to all people," she said in response to Hunt's question. 

"It’s about understanding that access to affordable health care should not be a privilege, it should be a right. It’s about understanding that in a democracy, and the  way we have constructed our democracy, we at least in concept have said that your access to public education, public health or public safety should not be a function of how much money you have. But in America today, that’s not the case."

Watch more from the interview below and stay tuned to MSNBC for more excerpts from the interview to come. 

Ben Kamisar

The potential 2020 Democratic candidates we are still watching

As the Democratic presidential field continues to swell Tuesday with the addition of Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, there are still a handful more waiting to run off of the sidelines. 

Here's a breakdown of who the political unit is still watching, grouped by their recent public statements. 

Announcing decision soon

  • Former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke: One of the marquee candidates of the 2018 cycle, O'Rourke recently emerged from the shadows this month, telling Oprah he's "thinking about running for president" and promising to announce his decision by the end of February.
  • Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg: The billionaire told the Associated Press earlier this month he would also announce whether he's running by the end of February. Politico reports that he'd still spend hundreds of millions of dollars to deprive President Trump of a second term if he decides not to run.
  • Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown: While Brown's been openly considering a bid and traveling to swing states, he told CNN on Sunday that "We will have a timetable in the next couple, three weeks to make a decision." 
  • Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe: During an interview on CBS "Face the Nation" this past Sunday, McAuliffe said that "I have made hundreds and hundreds of calls across the country, talked to potential staff and, listen, we're close to making a decision."
  • Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley: Merkley told MSNBC's "Morning Joe" last week that "I'm going to decide by the end of the quarter."
  • California Rep. Eric Swalwell: Swalwell traveled to Iowa this past long weekend, where he told potential caucus-goers "I'm about to jump in. The water's warm." 

Leaning yes 

  • Washington Gov. Jay Inslee: Inslee has made no secrets about his presidential aspirations and his hope to focus on climate change as a top issue for a possible bid. Earlier this month on CNN, he said that "we're still doing that due diligence, but so far all systems go at the moment" when asked about his intentions in 2020. 
  • Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper: The former brewery-owner turned politician has also been publicly handicapping his odds of running for a while, telling CNN last month that "I would probably take the bet" on him running. 
  • Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet: Lest we have only one Coloradan in the race, Bennet told Meet the Press this month "I think we have an opportunity to have a presidential campaign" and that "having one more voice in that conversation that's focused on America's future, I don't think would hurt."


  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Biden, whose shadow looms large over the race, said in Germany last week that he hasn't reached a decision yet on whether to run. "I'm in the process of doing that and I will in the near term let everyone know what that decision is. I think there is a sufficient amount of time to do that."
  • Montana Gov. Steve Bullock: The purple-state governor told MSNBC's "Morning Joe" last month " “I don’t feel any rush to be jumping in the race."
  • Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton: After previously ruling out a bid, Moulton changed his mind, telling Buzzfeed News that he's "seriously" considering a bid and saying during a foreign policy address earlier this month that "an argument for me to jump in" is if he can add a foreign policy emphasis to the debate. 
  • Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan: The congressman who gained national recognition when he challenged then-House Minority Leader Nany Pelosi for her leadership spot, Ryan told MSNBC's "MTP Daily" last week that he's "strongly considering" a bid because he's "worried" for the country.  
Ben Kamisar

Sanders: Voters should look at what candidates 'stand for,' not at their demographics

Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders continues to vacillate in explaining how he prioritizes class and race, priorities that will play an interesting role in how he approaches his 2020 presidential race. 

Speaking to Vermont Public Radio on Tuesday morning while announcing his bid, Sanders addressed the issues when asked about whether he's still the "face of the new Democratic Party." The field already includes a historic number of women and minority candidates, as well as an openly gay presidential hopeful. 

"We have got to look at candidates, you know, not by the color of their skin, not by their sexual orientation or their gender and not by their age," Sanders said. 

"I mean, I think we have got to try to move us toward a non-discriminatory society which looks at people based on their abilities, based on what they stand for."

Sanders struck a similar tone in a GQ profile last month, where he said that "there are people who are very big into diversity but whose views end up being not particularly sympathetic to working people, whether they're white or black or Latino." 

But that answer is a departure from the scripted remarks he delivered last month while commemorating Martin Luther King Jr. Day in South Carolina.

"Combating racial equality must be central to combating economic inequality," Sanders said during that trip to the Palmetto State, which is home to an early primary with a significant black voter population. 

The Vermont senator struggled in the 2016 primary in states like South Carolina where the primary electorate included a strong portion of black voters. So Sanders' evolving answers on the intersection between racial and economic inequality will be worth watching as he looks to improve his showing with minority voters. 

Ben Kamisar

2020 roundup: Obama gives counsel but not expected to endorse Dem primary candidate

Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Eric Holder, Beto O'Rourke and Michael Bloomberg have all reportedly met with President Obama as they considered whether to run for president, but the New York Times says that the Democratic Party kingmater isn't expected to make an endorsement. 

The Times has a new story that takes a look into how Obama's orbit is looking at 2020. But even those close to former Vice President Joe Biden believe Obama won't ultimately endorse in a primary. 

Read more here, and read on for more news from the 2020 trail. 

  • The Boston Globe looks how the historic number of mothers running in the 2020 Democratic primary are emphasizing their experience raising children during the early campaign. It also includes the nugget that Warren will announce a "universal child care and early learning plan" to be financed by a tax on the wealthy. 
  • NBC's Jonathan Allen reports on the difficult decision facing the Democratic National Committee as it decides on a 2020 convention city. 
  • Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, the 2016 Libertarian vice presidential nominee, defended his decision to run against President Trump in the GOP primary on Sunday's "This Week" on ABC
  • Republicans are looking to wrest away moderate voters from Democrats with a heavy emphasis on abortion and accusations of socialism and anti-Semitism, aiming at pressure points where Democrats disagree in the hopes of tarring the party as extreme. 
  • Several Democratic presidential nominees (or likely candidates) in the Senate are joining together to author legislation that would block President Trump from paying for his border wall with disaster relief funds. 
Ben Kamisar

Long-awaited hearing in contested North Carolina House race set to begin Monday

Monday marks the start of the long-awaited North Carolina State Board of Election hearing investigating a series of election irregularities that have thrown the state's Ninth Congressional District race into question. 

Republican Mark Harris edged out Democrat Dan McCready by 905 votes according to the official tally, but the state board refused to certify the election amid concerns about absentee ballot fraud. That's kept the district without congressional representation so far this year.  

Now, the board will hear from a handful of witnesses on both campaigns, as well as political operative McCrae Dowless, whose absentee ballot operation for the Harris campaign in Bladen County has drawn the most high-profile scrutiny. 

Read more from NBC News Capitol Hill reporter Leigh Ann Caldwell here, and watch her preview the hearing on Sunday's "Kasie DC" on MSNBC below. 

Ben Kamisar

Perez: Don't mistake Democratic 'unity' for 'unanimity'

Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez argued Sunday that the Democratic Party is more in touch with American values than the Republican Party is as he pushed back on the idea that Democrats are drifting to the left.  

When "Meet the Press" moderator Chuck Todd pointed to headlines about the divisions in the party over issues like Israel and its relationship with corporations, Perez framed the debate as well within the confines of the views shared by the majority of Americans. 

"We must never confuse unity and unanimity. We have unity on the fact that healthcare is a right for all and not a privilege for a few. Thanks to Democrats, we now have 90 percent coverage. We're having a conversation on how to get from 90 percent to 100 percent. They're talking about, on the Republican side, how to eliminate coverage for pre-existing conditions," Perez said. 

"We believe that climate change is real. It’s not a hoax. And we're having a discussion about how we build this clean energy economy. The other side denies that climate change exists. So, we're having a discussion about the means, but our values are the values that I believe command the respect of the vast majority of the American people."

The party's growing pains after its strong showing in the 2018 midterms, where the party took back control of the House, has played out in the headlines in recent weeks. 

House Democratic leadership recently issued a rebuke of Minnesota Democratic Congresswoman Ilhan Omar for evoking 'anti-Semitic tropes' on Twitter, an episode that pointed to the larger debate over Israel that's been simmering in the party for years. 

And Democrats have been split on whether to embrace extreme ideas to combat climate change espoused by some progressives promoting a "Green New Deal," as well as whether deals like the scuttled one to put an Amazon corporate headquarters in New York City is worth the tradeoff. 

But Perez argued that the vast majority of the Democratic debates are happening on turf that reflects American values, and that Democrats have shown a willingness to call out comments that go too far. He contrasted that to the Republican treatment of President Trump, pointing to Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson's defense of Trump's controversial decision to declare a national emergency to secure border wall funding. 

"The difference between Democrats and Republicans is when we see people within our own ranks do things or say things that are antithetical to our values, we are not reluctant to call them out," Perez said, pointing to Omar's comment.

"On the other side, unfortunately, they are enablers. Look at Senator Johnson with this national emergency calisthenics that he just did. He understands that it's unconstitutional, but God forbid that he would say something against Donald Trump."

Watch Perez's full interview below, where he discusses the upcoming Democratic debates amid the announcement that NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo will be broadcasting the first salvo later this year.