Follow the money: Senate edition
Yesterday, we broke down the recent independent expenditures in House races to show how recent spending decisions are playing out in the battle for the House majority.
Today, it's the Senate's turn. And there's a lot of interesting nuggets to glean from the data.
Like in yesterday's House breakdown, this analysis includes just independent expenditures, or money spent by outside groups without coordination with candidates, from Oct. 1 to Oct. 22. And unlike our television advertising figures, which includes advertising time paid for in advance, this only captures spending decisions that were made and filed with the FEC this month.
So while these numbers won't capture all of the advertising that voters were subjected to in the same time period, it gives a good look at the real-time spending decisions made in these races.
Arizona leads the pack with about $24.8 million spent by outside groups this month. The majority of that, $15.8 million, was spent on defining Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who has been battling an onslaught of Republican attacks that leverage old footage of Sinema disparaging the state.
Groups have spent $12.1 million against Sinema over that time period, with Democrats coming to her defense with $3.7 million in positive spending.
That's about the same amount of independent expenditures made on the whole in the Montana, West Virginia and Ohio Senate races combined over that same span. While a lot of that has to do with the price of media markets, it's clear how much of a priority the battle over Sinema's favorables is, particularly for Republicans.
Not to be outdone, Sinema supporters have spent $8.5 million opposing Republican Rep. Martha McSally over that same time period, as McSally's allies spent just $513,000 to support her.
Florida's Senate race follows close behind with about $24.7 million in outside spending this month. The vast majority of that, $18.7 million, is pro-Democratic spending as the party looks to keep pace with the prolific spending of Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott.
Then comes Indiana, with its about $22.1 million in outside spending. This race has been far more even, with supporters of Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly spending $11.6 million and Republican Mike Braun's allies dropping $10.5 million.
Democrats have the edge in Nevada, where outside groups have combined to spend about $22 million. There's been $12.7 million in pro-Democratic spending there, compared to $9.5 million in pro-Republican spending.
Tennessee, a state where Republicans have a slight spending edge, rounds out the top five. Groups backing Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn have spent $10.9 million there, while Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen's allies have spent $10.1 million.
There are other interesting figures that pop out outside of the top 10 as well.
- Missouri's Senate race is the only other one that's seen more than $10 million in outside spending this month. There's been more than $19 million spent on the battle between Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley.
- There's just been $13,000 spent this month to help Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Lou Barletta in his bid against Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey—one radio ad from Stars and Stripes Forever PAC. Casey continues to post a double-digit lead in recent polling, suggesting Democrats are pulling away in a state President Trump won in 2016.
- Not a dime in outside money has been spent over this period to help controversial Virginia Republican nominee Corey Stewart
- The outside-spending spigot is drying up in Wisconsin. Once a top target of outside groups, particularly Republican ones, Wisconsin saw just $1.2 million in new independent expenditures over the past three weeks. That's behind every other race where Democrats are defending a seat in a state Trump won in 2016 except Pennsylvania and Michigan.