Another incumbent Republican House member in a district that favored Donald Trump in 2016 appears to be in a very tight race against a Democratic challenger.
GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur of New Jersey’s 3rd District is running neck-and-neck with Democrat and former national security adviser Andy Kim, according to a new Monmouth University poll.
The poll finds that, among a traditional model of likely voters, Kim gets 45 percent support, compared with 44 percent support for MacArthur. A model assuming a surge of Democratic turnout puts Kim up 46 percent to 43 percent.
Among all potential voters in the district, it’s also a tight race, at 41 percent for MacArthur, 40 percent for Kim and 15 percent undecided.
The district, which encompasses the south central part of the state, voted for Trump by a 51 to 45 percent margin in 2016. That was a swing to the right from 2012, when it picked Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a five point margin.
The Monmouth poll finds that Trump’s approval rating now stands at 46 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove.
Voters are also about evenly split on who they’d like to see in control of Congress after November. Thirty-eight percent say they would prefer Democrats, while 36 percent say they’d favor Republican control of Congress.
The Monmouth University Poll of 401 NJ-03 voters was conducted by telephone from August 7 - 9, 2018. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4.9 percentage points. The margin of error for the likely voter models is +/- 5.7 percentage points.