How a key group — white women with a college degree — view Trump, the GOP and the midterms

The most recent NBC News/Wall Street poll shows that a key group of voters may be poised to play a big role in the upcoming election: White women with a college degree.

And they’re angry. 

White women with a college degree did support Hillary Clinton over Trump in the 2016 election, but only by a six-point margin. According to exit polls, just over half supported Clinton — 51 percent — while 45 percent backed Trump and the remainder chose third party candidates.

But that narrow advantage for the Democratic candidate has grown into a gaping divide heading into the 2018 midterms, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll.

President Trump’s positive favorability rating among college-educated white women, which stood just 32 percent when he was inaugurated, is now down even further to an even more dismal 27 percent, with 53 percent giving him a ‘very negative’ score. The Republican Party gets a similarly poor ranking, with just 23 percent within this group of women giving the GOP high marks. (They give Democrats a net positive score, on the other hand — 45 percent positive to 31 percent negative.)

And that ire also appears to be translating into energy against Republicans as the midterms approach.

Among white women with a college degree, Democrats have a 27 point advantage over Republicans on the question of which party they would rather win control of Congress in November.

And unlike some other voter groups like young people or independents, who show a preference for Democrats but don’t express high interest in the upcoming elections, this subgroup of women ranks among the highest when it comes to how closely they are watching the midterms. Six-in-ten report that they have high interest in the elections, one of the most pronounced levels of interest for any subgroup surveyed. 

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Trump campaign response strategy after Mueller report: “Vindication” over “exoneration”

WASHINGTON — With the highly-anticipated release of the Mueller report expected Thursday, the Trump campaign is ready to capitalize on the contents and has already determined a rebuttal strategy: a focus on “vindication” above all else. 

In the days following the release of Attorney General Bill Barr’s four-page summary, the president repeatedly touted “complete and total exoneration” — and his 2020 team followed suit with slick videos, tailored fundraising appeals and even new merchandise

Of the $30 million directly raised by the Trump campaign in the first three months of the year, $8.2 million came from contributions (of $200 or more) during the week after the Barr letter was released, which happened to coincide with the end of the fundraising quarter. 

But a strong indication the response may be a little different once more Mueller material is made public comes directly from their pre-emptive messaging. 

"We know that President Trump will — once again — be vindicated: no collusion and no obstruction," communications director Tim Murtaugh told NBC News, emphasizing vindication ahead of Thursday’s expected publication. "The tables should turn now, as it is time to investigate the liars who instigated the sham investigation in the first place."

The second part of that statement is also a preview of where the campaign plans to keep shifting the conversation to: the origins of the Russia probe itself, rather than the contents of the nearly 400-page document. 

Campaign officials acknowledge it is quite difficult to predict and execute a coordinated reaction before knowing the extent of the findings. But over the last week, as Trump allies brace for previously unknown and potentially unflattering details in the report, the president has not used the word “exonerate” once and instead has seized on “no collusion” and "no obstruction!"

It’s unclear whether or not Trump has actually been advised to highlight vindication as a more accurate description now that the two-year investigation, which he deemed a “witch hunt hoax,” has wrapped up.

In his summary, Barr cited the special counsel's work, saying it explicitly concluded that there was no criminal conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russians to influence the 2016 election. But he was far less definitive on the question of obstruction.

“While this report does not conclude that the president committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him,” Mueller writes in his report, according to a quote in Barr’s letter. 

2020 roundup: Gillibrand supports challenger to anti-abortion rights House Dem

WASHINGTON—New York Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is backing the Illinois Democrat who is running once again to dethrone one of the party's last remaining anti-abortion rights lawmakers. 

After an event in Chicago on Tuesday, Gillibrand and Democrat Marie Newman took to Twitter to give each other mutual endorsements. 

Newman fell short in her 2018 challenge against Lipinski by just a few thousand votes in the first high-profile primary fight of the calendar.

A slew of prominent progressive activists and politicians rallied around Newman during that race because of her support for abortion rights, in contrast to Lipinski's views on the issue. But House Democratic leaders rallied behind the incumbent, and a super PAC with ties to the centrist 'No Labels' spent heavily to boost Lipinski. 

So with an early endorsement of Newman, Gillibrand is looking to send a message about her support for abortion rights and willingness to take on an entrenched politician over the issue. 

There's a lot more news coming out of the 2020 trail, so click here for more from the campaign world. 

  • Ohio Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, the newly-minted presidential candidate, told CNN on Wednesday that he supports Medicare for All as an "aspirational goal."  But he added that "I would not take anybody's private insurance away."
  • President Trump is handicapping the Democratic presidential primary, tweeting that he thinks it'll come down to "Crazy Bernie Sanders vs. Sleepy Joe Biden."
  • South Bend Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg downplayed the hecklers that have interrupted his recent campaign events, arguing that it's a "barometer of success." 
  • While FEC deadline day was Monday, there's still a whole lot of interesting information buried in fundraising reports. Check out yesterday's blog post that focuses on the durability of the Democratic candidates' donor base for more. 
  • After releasing his tax returns this week, former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke defended his charitable giving by arguing he donated more than he specifically itemized on his returns. 
  • The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Georgia Rep. Lucy McBath's campaign refused to accept a contribution from Minnesota Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar, who has been the recent target of criticism from the president after controversial remarks about America's relationship with Israel drew a rebuke from leaders of her own party. 

A deeper dive into the health of Democratic candidates' donor bases

WASHINGTON—Topline fundraising numbers have dominated the discussion about the Democratic presidential candidates' first-quarter fundraising haul. 

You can read more about those top-lines in today's First Read

But some deeper digging sheds important light on the durability of the candidates' donor bases. 

Small-dollar hauls

Small-dollar donors are the new must-have campaign accessory for Democrats after Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (and President Trump) changed the game in 2016. 

These donors are important because they can be repeatedly tapped throughout the campaign, allowing a candidate to raise quick cash without working to expand its donor base. 

Unsurprisingly, Sanders led the pack of major Democratic candidates with this metric by raising more than $15 million in donations under $200. That accounted for about 84 percent of his total haul.  

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has sworn off high-dollar fundraisers, raised about 70 percent of her total from small-donors too. 

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke also raised about 60 percent of their first-quarter hauls from small donations. 

New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker raised about 15 percent of their donations from those small contributions. And former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper raised just nine percent from small donations. 

Maxed-out donors

The flip side of the small-dollar coin are maxed-out donors — those who donate the federal maximum donation of $2,800 a cycle (primaries and general elections count as separate cycles). 

The wealthiest donors are a great way to infuse cash into a campaign. But they can't donate again. 

Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney and Hickenlooper both raised a majority of their money from maxed-out donors (Delaney largely self-funded his campaign).

But Warren raised about two percent of her money from maxed-out donors, a sign that she'll be able to dip back into the well repeatedly. 

Sanders, California Sen. Kamala Harris and Buttigieg also raised less than 20 percent of their dollars from max-out donors. That's a big deal, especially because they finished the quarter in first, second and fourth respectively in total contributions.

General election money

Some candidates are already raising a significant amount of general election money that they can't use unless they win the primary, but that they're including in their top-line numbers already.

About 10 percent of the money that Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and former HUD Sec. Julián Castro raised from donors this past cycle was earmarked for the general election. Klobuchar raised more than any other candidate with about $570,000. 

'Performance is better than promise' — Biden eulogizes South Carolina's Hollings

WASHINGTON — Joe Biden made his first 2020 cycle trip to an early voting state Tuesday, eulogizing late South Carolina Sen. Fritz Hollings for his deep commitment to the state and advocacy for its neediest citizens.

Biden, who served alongside Hollings for most of his 36 years in the Senate, recalled that Palmetto State icon was chairman of the Democratic Senate campaign committee when he launched a long-shot bid against a popular Republican incumbent in Delaware in 1972.

"He ended up taking a chance on me," Biden said. "He saw something in me that I wasn't sure existed. But he believed in me. I can say without fear of contradiction that that made me believe more in myself."

Biden praised Hollings' bridge-building political style, both as a governor and then as a senator. "He knew how to get things done," Biden said. "He knew how to build coalitions. He even knew how to get along with Strom when he needed to."

Strom Thurmond was a Dixiecrat-turned-Republican senator from South Carolina and the oldest living senator until his retirement at the age of 100. Biden also delivered his eulogy in 2003, something that already has drawn attention as approaches the Democratic primary contest.

Biden focused his remarks Tuesday on Hollings, especially praising him for seeking to address systemic poverty and hunger in rural areas. He also quoted Hollings in a potential allusion to his future candidacy.

"What a man will do in public office is best told by what he’s done. Performance is better than promise," he said.

Yang leads Democratic presidential candidates in Facebook spending for past week

WASHINGTON — Entrepreneur Andrew Yang led the field of 2020 Democratic presidential candidates in money spent on Facebook advertisements for the second week in a row.

Yang spent $154,840 on ads from April 7 to April 13, trailing only President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign, which spent $161,285.

Yang spent $157,230  the previous week, the most of any presidential candidate of either party, according to Facebook’s publicly available political ad archive.

Many of Yang’s recent ads were used to promote events he was holding in cities such as Boston and Atlanta last week. The ads often mentioned Venture for America, the nonprofit Yang started.

Yang’s ads also highlighted his support for a universal basic income as a response to the threat of artificial intelligence.

Following Yang in last week’s spending was Julián Castro, former San Antonio mayor and housing secretary under President Obama, who spent $137,162. Castro's ads focused primarily on fundraising to secure a spot in the Democratic debates, saying “my spot on that stage isn’t guaranteed unless I reach 65,000 donors.”

One way candidates can qualify for the debate is if they raise money from 65,000 unique donors as well as from 200 unique donors in at least 20 states. 

Rounding out the top five Democratic spenders were Sen. Elizabeth Warren ($67,275), Marianne Williamson ($64,634), and Sen. Amy Klobuchar ($48,379).

President Trump has dominated Facebook spending this year, buying ads through both his official campaign committee, Donald J. Trump for President Inc., and the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, a joint effort of the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee.

Many of Trump’s ads last week focused on themes such as the Mueller Report, the southern border wall, and the news media. There were often requests for donations with phrases such as “DONATE NOW to show you want to FINISH THE WALL!”

Facebook started the political ad archive in May 2018 to increase transparency and “to help prevent abuse, especially during elections.”

All election-related and issues ads must now be labeled with who paid for the ad. Facebook users can see how much a campaign spent on an ad and how many people saw it.

Inslee on immigration: 'We are not afraid of diversity'

WASHINGTON — Democratic presidential hopeful and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee criticized President Trump's suggestion of sending detained immigrants to so-called sanctuary cities, accusing Trump of trying to promote "bombastic chaos."

Inslee told NBC's "Meet the Press" that the plan won't work because those in sanctuary cities, which are typically Democratic-leaning areas, will be ready with open arms. 

"You can’t threaten somebody with something they aren’t afraid of and we are not afraid of diversity in the state of Washington.”

"We relish it, it is the basis of our economic and cultural success," he said, adding that the state has a long history of accepting refugees. 

Biden and Sanders sitting atop Iowa, New Hampshire polls as Buttigieg vaults to third

WASHINGTON —Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders are in first and second place respectively in two new polls of Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats, with South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg riding his newfound notoriety into third place in both states. 

In Saint Anselm University's New Hampshire poll, Biden leads with 23 percent, followed by Sanders' 16 percent and Buttigieg's 11 percent.

No other candidate hits double digits, with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren in fourth place with 8.7 percent and California Sen. Kamala Harris and former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 6.8 and 6.4 percent respectively.

In Monmouth University's Iowa poll, Biden has 27 percent support, followed by Sanders' 16 percent, Buttigieg's 9 percent and then Harris and Warren, who are tied at 7 percent. 

The polls show Biden and Sanders as the only candidates with universal name identification in both states, with Warren sporting near-perfect name identification in her neighboring state of New Hampshire. 

While Biden's favorable rating dipped almost 10 percent in New Hampshire since St. Anselm's February poll, he's still sporting the best net-favorable rating in both polls. 

Sanders is viewed favorably by two-thirds of likely voters in both the New Hampshire and Iowa polls. But he has the highest unfavorable rating, 26 percent, in the Iowa poll, and trails Warren for the highest unfavorable rating in the New Hampshire poll. 

The Vermont senator finished second behind Democrat Hillary Clinton by a razor-thin margin in the 2016 Iowa caucuses, while he won the 2016 New Hampshire primary by more than 22 points. 

Monmouth's poll also found that 49 percent of likely caucus-goers feel it's "very important" that their party's nominee supports "Medicare for All," while 31 percent feel the same way about support for the Green New Deal. 

That poll is also the third poll considered under the Democratic National Committee's debate qualifications where former Maryland Rep. John Delaney and entrepreneur Andrew Yang reached at least 1 percent. Candidates can either qualify by hitting the 1 percent mark in three qualifying polls or hitting a grassroots fundraising threshold.

But since the party will use tiebreakers to winnow down the debate participants if more than 20 candidates qualify, they are not assured to be on stage for the party's first debate in June. 

Monmouth polled 351 likely caucusgoers between April 4 and April 9 and its poll has a margin-of-error of 5.2 percent. Saint Anselm polled 326 likely voters between April 3 and April 8 and the poll has a error margin of 5.4 percent. 

How smart is the American electorate? Your answer might depend on your party

WASHINGTON — When most politicians ask for your vote, they often say something about how they put their faith in the wisdom of the American people.  

But most American voters … don’t.

A new poll from the Pew Research Center finds that six-in-ten Americans say they don’t have much faith in the public to make wise decisions when it comes to politics.

That’s not exactly new. A Pew poll in March of 2018 found a similar number, and confidence in the political wisdom of the public has mostly been on the decline since the mid-1990s. The last time the survey found a majority of Americans feeling upbeat about the decision-making of their fellow voters was in January of 2007, after Democrats walloped the party of a deeply unpopular George W. Bush in the 2006 midterm elections.

But what might be most surprising is how the two parties have shifted since the 2016 election.

While Republicans and Democrats were generally aligned in their declining faith in the public’s political savvy between 1997 and March of 2016, Trump’s election prompted a skyrocketing of confidence in the public from GOP voters, who witnessed the stunning victory of their once-dismissed nominee.

Between March 2016 and March 2018, Republicans who said they had confidence in the public’s political smarts jumped from 35 percent to 54 percent.

Democrats, interestingly, didn’t see a dramatic corresponding decline in confidence over the same period of time.

The latest poll out today from Pew, though, finds that the GOP’s newfound enthusiasm for the prudence of America’s voters has waned since the 2018 midterms. In the wake of an election that gave House Democrats their biggest victory since Watergate, Republicans’ faith in their fellow voters fell back to Earth — at 43 percent.


Graphic via Pew Research Center

Trump tweets inaccurate Fox Business graphic on his approval rating

WASHINGTON — In a tweet Thursday morning, Trump screenshotted a poll graphic from the Fox Business Network that appeared to show his “soaring approval,” with his overall approval rating — it said — at 55 percent and his approval on the economy at 58 percent.

The problem? The graphic was half wrong.  

The Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Poll cited in the graphic did, in fact, find his approval rating on the ECONOMY at 58 percent.

But his overall approval rating in the poll was just 43 percent. His disapproval rating stands at 52 percent.

Fifty-five percent was actually Trump’s UNFAVORABLE rating in a separate question.

You can see the full Georgetown poll here.

** UPDATE: Fox Business Network issued a correction for the erroneous graphic on air after the president's tweet. 

What was said on air: "It’s been a quite start to the day for President Trump, though he did send out a tweet this morning from the Lou Dobbs show last night on Fox Business. That tweet featured a poll that was not entirely accurate, which Fox Business would like to correct.  According to a poll from Georgetown University, 58 percent of respondents approved of the president’s handling of the economy. That portion of the graphic was right. However, the graphic also showed that 55 percent of the respondents approve of the president, that number is not correct. The 55 percent number was those who have an unfavorable impression of President Trump.”

Here's the original tweet from Trump that contains the error: 

Warren and Booker impress at union conference

WASHINGTON — A pair of northeastern senators appeared to leave the strongest impression among union leaders at national conference here today at which nine declared-and-possible presidential candidates appeared.   

Interviews with union leaders from Seattle to New York City showed enthusiasm for most of the Democrats who spoke to the North American Building Trades Unions, but none more so than Senators Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren.

Union members gave Warren, who received standing ovations for her calls to protect pensions, fight right-to-work laws, and combat the opioid crisis, credit for her longtime solidarity with organized labor.  “She’s been with us for years," said Dennis Fleming, a sprinkler-fitter from Chicago. “We do recognize all that she’s done and stood behind us.”

Booker’s impassioned remarks, covering everything from trade policy, to his college football days at Stanford drew plaudits.  “Being from the Northeast, I enjoyed hearing Cory Booker," said Michael Halpin, a national coordinator with the Elevator Industry Work Preservation Fund. "But all of them were very impressive. It’s really, really early in the game."

Attendees said they were looking for candidates to specifically focus on prevailing wages, proactive labor agreements, protecting the right to organize, and anything that could advance union density across the country. 

But the slew of Democratic candidates also have challenges in winning back many of these workers who voted for President Trump in the 2016 election after years of loyalty to their party. The crowd at the conference was largely made up of white men, a demographic that has tended more and more away from Democrats, especially in industrial areas.

“It’s going to take a special niche to beat the current president," said Vance Ayres, who works as the governmental affairs director for the International Union of Elevator Constructors. "He ran on an agenda where he got elected because he wasn’t a career politician and the country is tired of politics and career politicians."

"You’re going to have to have somebody that’s dynamic enough if they’ve spent some time in politics to get elected to beat the current president," Ayres added. "You’re going to have to elect a real person."

Other 2020 Democrats who spoke at the conference include: Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan and  California Eric Swalwell.