Pelosi vote puts spotlight on Democratic House freshmen
With their elections behind them, House Democratic freshmen are moving on to their first pivotal act as incoming members — leadership elections.
And the main event is the party’s vote for speaker, where current Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is running unopposed.
Pelosi has had a long run as the party’s leader in the lower chamber, but that long tenure has also made her a frequent target for Republicans and created problems for some Democrats.
So her bid for speaker is putting freshmen members in an interesting spot.
Many new members appear to be poised to vote for her — most ran in districts that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won in 2016, territory where support for Pelosi is less likely to cause problems for them in future elections.
That list includes the 20 freshmen who released a letter this week praising Pelosi's work as Democratic leader and calling on the party to unite around her. All but three of those incoming members come from districts Clinton won.
But there are others who have kept their decision close to the vest, and another group who has declared their opposition to her candidacy.
Six Democratic freshmen, including five from districts President Trump won in 2016, joined onto another letter promising to oppose her. And a handful more haven't declared their intentions either way.
Pelosi only needs to win a simple majority of her caucus to secure the party's nomination for speaker. And since she's almost certain to have that support, fence-sitting Democrats could oppose her internally without sinking her bid—a low-stakes defection that the party can stomach.
That's what happened in 2016, when dozens of Democrats voted against Pelosi in the internal vote but only four ultimately opposed her during the final House floor vote, when the choice was between her and the GOP nominee, Paul Ryan.
But the real question remains whether these freshmen will vote against Pelosi or abstain on the floor, a higher-stakes decision. These members will have to balance the politics of opposing Pelosi in a purple or red-leaning district with the implications of depriving the Democratic Party's speaker candidate a vote.
There are a few interesting twists to this. First, the internal caucus vote is not public, but the final vote on the House floor is. Plus, there’s some game theory in here too, as Democrats looking to split the difference may try to vote “present.” Pelosi needs the majority of all members who vote, so opting to vote “present” won’t deal as heavy a blow to her as a vote for another candidate would.
With Republican groups already circling the waters in search of a consolation prize, either pressuring a Democrat to vote against Pelosi on the floor or getting to use a vote for her as a bludgeon in 2020, today's vote marks the beginning, not the end, of the tough political terrain for freshmen.