Poll: OH-12 doesn’t look like a repeat of PA-18 — at least for now

The next competitive special election takes place on Aug. 7, when Republican Troy Balderson takes on Democrat Danny O’Connor in the race to replace former Rep. Pat Tiberi, R-Ohio.

And according to a new Monmouth University poll, this OH-12 special doesn’t look like a replay of this year’s earlier PA-18 race, in which Democrat Conor Lamb narrowly won in a district that Donald Trump carried by 20 points. At least not yet.

Per the poll, Balderson leads O’Connor among all potential voters (43 percent to 33 percent), in a typical midterm turnout of likely voters (48 percent to 39 percent) and in a Dem surge of likely voters (46 percent to 39 percent).

Trump won OH-12 by 11 points in 2016, 52 percent to 41 percent.

While reading the primary-vote tea leaves is imperfect, it’s worth noting that about 150,000 fewer Democrats than Republicans participated in Ohio’s competitive gubernatorial primaries in May, suggesting that Ohio might be a harder state for Democrats in 2018 than in other places. 

Sanders to keep staffers on health care plan through November

Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders will cover the costs of health care for everyone on his campaign staff through the end of October, campaign manager Faiz Shakir told staff Thursday afternoon on a conference call. 

The approximately 500 Sanders staffers now looking for employment after the senator suspended his presidential bid Wednesday will continue to be covered through COBRA on the campaign's dime

A campaign spokesperson explained that while the Sanders campaign staff won't be paid their salaries alongside their health care, they will receive severance checks on May 1. 

Staffers who were with the campaign for more than six months will receive two pay-periods worth of pay. Staffers who were with the campaign for less than six months will receive one pay-period of pay. 

The move stands in stark contrast to billionaire Mike Bloomberg, who laid off campaign staffers despite initially saying he would pay staff to mount an effort against President Trump's reelection even if Bloomberg was not the Democratic Party's nominee. 

The remaining Bloomberg staffers, many of whom were focused on battleground campaign states before being let go, will receive health care through the end of April, according to a statement from a Bloomberg campaign spokesperson.

The news comes the same day as former Vice President Joe Biden announced he planned to expand access to Medicare and forgive some student debt, seen as a nod to Sanders' supporters because of his focus on both issues. 

In nod to Sanders, Biden looks to adopt more progressive policies

WASHINGTON — On his first day as the apparent Democratic nominee, Joe Biden is extending another olive branch to backers of his more progressive rivals, announcing his intent to expand access to Medicare and forgive loan debt for many students.

The former vice president said Thursday that he would seek to lower the eligibility age for Medicare from 65 to 60, and forgive federal loan debt for those making less than $125,000 who graduated from any public undergraduate colleges and universities along with those who attend private Historically Black Colleges and Universities or Minority Serving Institutions. 

Sen. Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden speak at a Democratic presidential debate on Charleston, S.C., on Feb. 25, 2020.Jonathan Ernst / Reuters file

While Biden cast these announcements as a nod in the direction of Senator Bernie Sanders on key priorities of his movement — saying Sanders and his supporters “can take pride in their work laying the groundwork for these ideas" — the campaign also notes that the policy moves are driven by the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.

"Recovery will require long term changes to build a more inclusive and more resilient middle class, and a greener and more resilient economy,” Biden writes in a new Medium post. "We have to think big — as big as the challenges we face. As we start to lay the groundwork for recovery, we have to build back better for the future."

Before Sanders announced the suspension of his campaign Wednesday, Biden had already adopted another piece of Sanders’s platform — to make public colleges and universities free, but only for families whose income is below $125,000. Separately, he had also embraced Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren's bankruptcy reform plan, an area where the two clashed in the past. 

One of the key differences between Biden and Sanders in the Democratic primary was whether to build on, or overhaul entirely the Affordable Care Act. Biden proposed the former, saying he would add a public option and enhance subsidies for purchasing ACA plans, among other changes. Sanders instead offered voters a Medicare for All program that would move most Americans from private health insurance to a government-run plan.

Sanders said Wednesday he intends to continue pressing for the Democratic Party to embrace Medicare for All in its platform. Sanders’ campaign did not comment on Biden’s announcement Thursday.

Pro-Trump Super PAC commits over $25 million for ads in Florida, North Carolina

WASHINGTON — The official pro-Trump Super PAC, America First Action, committed Thursday to additional broadcast spending of over $25 million in two key presidential battleground states for the fall ahead of Election Day. 

According to a statement released by the group this afternoon, America First Action is reserving $26.6 million for pro-Trump advertising set to air from September through November’s general election on Florida and North Carolina’s airwaves. This is in addition to the $10 million it previously said it’s investing in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which will focus on “Sleepy Joe Biden," the now-apparent Democratic nominee after Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign Wednesday. 

President Donald Trump waves to supporters during a "Keep America Great" campaign rally in Sunrise, Fla., on Nov. 26, 2019.Mandel Ngan / AFP - Getty Images file

In Florida, America First Action is reserving a total of $18.5 million with about seven million dollars and $11.3 million for the Tampa and Orlando media markets respectively. In North Carolina, the group will commit $3.8 million for ads in Charlotte’s markets and $4.3 million for Raleigh-Durham’s airwaves. 

“America First is making the Florida and North Carolina reservations because we are confident we can secure inventory at the best possible rates in these crucial battleground states,” PAC President Brian Walsh explained in the statement. He added that more decisions on spending will be made next month. 

The previous investments in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin unveiled last week include pro-Trump digital, cable, broadcast, and mail advertising beginning this month and continuing until late May. Two million dollars will be spent in Michigan’s Traverse City, Flint, and Grand Rapids areas while nearly three million will be spent in parts of Wisconsin including Green Bay’s media markets. In Pennsylvania, $5.5 million will be dedicated to ads in Pittsburgh and Harrisburg, among other markets. 

The group's latest broadcast buy comes as President Trump's campaign focuses on digital advertising at the moment. America First Action emphasized that its recent spending commitment is just part of its first wave of independent expenditures in the 2020 cycle.

House super PACS announce more than $90 million in early TV reservations

WASHINGTON — The top Republican and Democratic super PACs in the battle for the House majority have announced more than $90 million in initial television ad reservations as they draw the contours of the 2020 battleground. 

This week, the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC announced $51 million in early television reservations, while the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund said it will book $43 million for its first wave. Both groups will be advertising through a variety of mediums and are expected to add more money to buys as Election Day draws closer. 

A woman votes in the Wisconsin primary on April 7, 2020.Alex Kormann / Star Tribune via AP

The busiest market right now is Philadelphia, where CLF is booking $6.5 million to the HMP's $6.1 million. It's home to a handful of competitive races in 2020 in both New Jersey and Pennsylvania, including the reelection races for New Jersey Democratic Reps. Andy Kim and Tom Malinowski, New Jersey Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew (a former Democrat), Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, and Pennsylvania Democratic Reps. Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild. 

Both sides plan to invest heavily in Minnesota as well — HMP is reserving $7.4 million in the state compared to CLF's $3.25 million. The state is home to four freshmen lawmakers who could face competitive reelection fights (Republican Reps. Pete Stauber and Jim Hagedorn, and Democratic Reps. Angie Craig and Dean Phillips), as well as the long-time Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson, who has repeatedly defied the odds and held onto his red district. 

The two groups are also investing heavily in Iowa ($8.4 million in TV bookings between the two parties), Atlanta ($7.7 million), Detroit ($6.4 million) and Houston ($5.3 million).

Other big markets for the Democratic group include Las Vegas (HMP is booking $3.5 million there) and Miami ($3.3 million).

Other notable points of emphasis for CLF include Los Angeles (the group is booking $3 million there) and New York's 22nd Congressional District, where CLF says it's booking $2.2 million aimed at dethroning Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi.

Biden holds lead in latest general election polls

Apparent Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is hanging onto his lead in two general election polls against President Trump this week. In the latest Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, and Monmouth University poll released Thursday, Biden leads Trump by eight points and four points respectively — both leads land outside of the polls' margins of error. 

Joe Biden speaks at a press event in Wilmington, Del., on March 12, 2020.Saul Loeb / AFP - Getty Images file

The polls were both conducted before Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, ended his presidential campaign on Wednesday.  

While Biden maintains a lead against Trump in almost every general election poll, the president's base doesn't look keen to leave Trump. In the Quinnipiac University poll, Republicans back Trump with 91 percent support. And registered voters in the Monmouth University poll show nearly the same favorability toward the president and the apparent Democratic nominee. 

Forty-two percent of registered voters said their opinion of the president is "very" or "somewhat" favorable. When asked about Biden, 41 percent of registered voters said they found him very or somewhat favorable, in the Monmouth poll. So Biden's strength may be coming from independents — a group which broke for Trump in 2016

President Donald Trump speaks at the daily coronavirus task force briefing at the White House on April 8, 2020.Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

In the Quinnipiac University poll, independents favor Biden 44-35 percent. And the president's handling of the coronavirus pandemic could strengthen that support for Biden. Fifty-one percent of registered voters in the Quinnipiac poll said Biden would do a better job in a crisis than President Trump. And in the Monmouth University poll, about a third of registered voters said that Trump's handling of the pandemic will make it less likely he'll get re-elected: 31 percent said it makes it less likely, 27 percent think it makes it more likely he'll be re-elected and 36 percent said it will make no difference. 

The Quinnipiac University poll was taken between April 2 and 6 with a margin of error of 2.2 points. The Monmouth University poll was completed between April 3 and 7 with a 3.6-point margin of error. 

New Trump campaign ad compares Sanders to Biden after Sanders ends 2020 bid

WASHINGTON — Less than two hours after Sen. Bernie Sanders announced he was suspending his presidential campaign, President Trump's campaign debuted a digital ad closely comparing him to Joe Biden, the now-apparent Democratic nominee.

The new online spot ties the policies of the Vermont senator and former vice president together on issues including immigration and fossil fuels, and refers to them as “a big government socialist and a big government liberal" respectively. 

After listing positions Sanders and Biden both support, the commercial ends by claiming “they’re more alike than you think, but at least Bernie remembers his positions."

President Trump's reelection campaign has invested six figures in the online spot, according to communications director Tim Murtaugh. The 30-second ad makes no mention of coronavirus, which is the main reason the 2020 campaign has been moved from an in-person campaign to a virtual battleground in a matter of weeks.

“With Bernie suspending his campaign, it’s clear that the Dem establishment got the candidate they wanted in Sleepy Joe. But Biden & Sanders agree on all the big issues. They are both the same,” Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale tweeted.

Meanwhile, President Trump is trying to appeal to some of Sanders’ supporters, firing off three messages on the Independent Vermont senator after news broke that he was dropping out of the race.

“This ended just like the Democrats & the DNC wanted, same as the Crooked Hillary fiasco. The Bernie people should come to the Republican Party!” Trump said.

Sanders drops out: How Biden, Sanders (and Obama) got to this point

WASHINGTON — According to multiple sources involved in the process, Joe Biden’s and Bernie Sanders’ teams have been having ongoing conversations since early March, especially once Biden took a more significant delegate lead after Michigan's presidential primary.

Those conversations began initially over process issues – especially about how the campaigns should handle the Arizona debate, which ultimately moved to Washington over the Coronavirus. But lines of communication were then established and conversations continued at a big picture level over how to unite the party and bring this to a conclusion.

President Obama was part of those discussions — he spoke with both Biden and Sanders multiple times over the past month.

Ultimately, they planned out the choreography that's beginning to unfold. But as one source put it, “the dates kept slipping” — in part because Sanders, a member of Democratic leadership in the Senate, was dealing with the congressional response to the coronavirus pandemic. 

The sides agreed that Tuesday's Wisconsin primary was an important benchmark — as a Sanders advisor put it, they have been trying to land the plane for some time, but “Wisconsin gave us a natural exit ramp.”

Though Wisconsin’s results would take days to come in, the Sanders team nonetheless knew the trajectory of the race was not changing no matter what the outcome. But he would stay in the race in part to help continue driving Democratic turnout for a state Supreme Court election that was a priority for local Democrats. 

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders greet each other with an elbow bump as they arrive for the 11th Democratic presidential debate in Washington on March 15, 2020.Mandel Ngan / AFP - Getty Images file

Biden’s campaign also made clear that they were eager for that specific date to hold firm, and they were prepared, if it did not, to shift their public rhetoric ever so slightly to turn the heat up for Sanders to take steps to begin uniting the party.

Obama especially emphasized that in his conversations with Sanders, another source involved with the process told NBC.  But Obama, and Biden as he has said publicly, never once themselves told Sanders to drop out.

Biden’s team had announced Wednesday's virtual town hall meeting” on unemployment and issues facing working families knowing the timeline in place. That will be Biden’s first opportunity to publicly thank Sanders for moving to unite the party. 

Asked about contacts between the Biden and Sanders campaigns, a Biden aide told NBC: 

“The two campaigns continue to be engaged on a range of topics that will build on the former Vice President’s existing policy proposals and look forward to furthering our shared goals to move the country forward.  We look forward to sharing  more on that front in the near future.”

—NBC News' Kristen Welker contributed

Sanders' campaign ends without expanding his 2016 base

WASHINGTON — As Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders suspended his presidential campaign Wednesday his ultimate downfall was that he never expanded beyond his progressive base.

In fact, he ended up underperforming from 2016.

That explains how he went from the frontrunner in a still-crowded race of Democratic candidates in February, to someone who couldn't win a single county in Michigan or Florida when the field whittled down a month later.

And while Sanders had to navigate a much larger field of viable candidates in 2020 than he did four years ago, his vote percentages underscore his difficulty in holding onto a sizable number of 2016 supporters who left his camp for other candidates.  

Consider:

In Iowa's caucuses, the first Democratic contest, Sanders ended up getting 25 percent of the popular vote and 26 percent of the state delegate equivalents — down from 49.6 percent in 2016.

In the New Hampshire primary, the second contest, the Vermont senator won the state with another 26 percent of the vote — down from 60 percent-plus four years ago.

Bernie Sanders at a rally in Los Angeles on March 1, 2020.Jonathan Ernst / Reuters

Sanders' best showing came in the next nominating race, Nevada, where he got 47 percent of the state delegate equivalents in a field that continued to have six major Democratic candidates (not including former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who didn't compete in Nevada).

But after that came another underperformance in South Carolina in late February, when those same six candidates were in the race: He garnered just about 20 percent (was 26 percent in 2016) of the vote.

And then on Super Tuesday — after Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg had dropped out of the race and endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden — the trend continued:

  • Alabama 16 percent (was 19 percent in 2016)
  • California 36 percent (was 46 percent)
  • Texas 30 percent (was 33 percent)
  • Virginia 23 percent (was 35 percent)
  • Vermont 51 percent (was 86 percent) 

And then after it became a two-person race when Bloomberg and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren dropped out:

  • Michigan 36 percent (was 50 percent)
  • Mississippi 15 percent (was 17 percent)
  • Missouri 35 percent (was 49 percent).

After Sanders' exit from the 2020 race on Wednesday, President Trump was blaming Elizabeth Warren for the Vermont senator’s defeat.

But as the numbers show above, Sanders' problem wasn't Warren. Instead, it was his inability to expand beyond his diehard supporters from 2016 — before and after Warren dropped out of the 2020 race.

Sanders urges paychecks for laid off, furloughed in fourth Coronavirus stimulus

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is not pleased with the job President Trump is doing handling the coronavirus pandemic that has cost nearly 13,000 American lives, so he is urging his congressional colleagues in the legislative branch to take the lead. 

In an op-ed published Wednesday in the British newspaper The Guardian, published hours before he suspended his presidential campaign, Sanders wrote he believes President Trump is incapable of “providing leadership."

"This is a frightening and devastating time for our country, and the world. Never before in our lifetimes have we had to deal with both a public health pandemic and an economic meltdown,” Sanders wrote. 

As the focus of the Sanders campaign shifts to Coronavirus response, the senator is out with a list of priorities he hopes makes it into the next congressional package, which is already being discussed on Capitol Hill. 

This includes intensifying the use of the Defense Production Act, which Sanders says Congress should explicitly authorize to compel the private sector to produce more products needed by medical personnel across the country. “We cannot rely on Trump to do it,” Sanders said. 

Trump has invoked the DPA on a handful of occasions, but Democrats have criticized him for not going further. 

Sanders also wants to ensure that every worker in America continues to receive their full paycheck and benefits, through the duration of the pandemic.

“We cannot wait before taking the bold action that is necessary,” Sanders wrote. “In my view, it makes a lot more sense to prevent the collapse of our economy than figuring out how we put it back together after it crumbles."

While Sanders said he knows a full Medicare-For-All bill would not be agreed upon for this stimulus,  he wants to make sure Americans receive all of the healthcare they need regardless of income. He proposed that Medicare pay all deductibles, co-payments and out-of-pocket healthcare expenses for the uninsured and the underinsured during this crisis, regardless of immigration status. 

As part of his campaign's focus on coronavirus, Sanders held a livestream Tuesday night focused on how the African American community is specifically impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. Campaign surrogates discussed racial disparities in treatment during visits to doctors' offices and emergency rooms, and how and why data shows COVID-19 is more deadly in majority-minority communities.

Health officials say those with pre-existing conditions including heart disease, diabetes and asthma are at a higher risk of contracting COVID-19, as well as the fact that many African Americans in some of the nation’s “hot spots” are employed in essential service industry jobs, requiring face-to-face contact.

Sanders has held nine, similar, livestreams in the past few weeks, all focused on the pandemic.  

New Biden super PAC ad highlights Democrat's coronavirus plan

WASHINGTON — The super PAC supporting Joe Biden is returning to the national airwaves with a new television ad, this time focusing on the Democrat’s plan for tackling the coronavirus outbreak.

The 30-second spot from Unite The Country pivots from the group’s other recent paid messaging, which faults President Trump for how he has handled the pandemic.

Instead, the ad asks what Biden would do differently, before laying out elements of his previously announced plan, including ensuring all states had at least 10 mobile testing sites, greater availability of safety care, free vaccines, and an extended Obamacare enrollment period – something the Trump administration recently ruled out.

The new ad will begin airing early this week on cable airwaves nationally as part of a six-figure buy, a spokesperson for Unite the Country told NBC News. 

That new investment is in addition to the previous, seven-figure campaign behind the earlier ad, which made the point: "Crisis comes to every president. This one failed.”

The Biden campaign itself has been largely off the airwaves during the pandemic. Ahead of today’s Wisconsin primary, the campaign focused on text and phone outreach to voters there.

Last week, the pro-Trump super PAC America First Action, announced it will spend $10 million on ads criticizing Biden in swing states.

Wisconsin voters and poll workers head to polls in protective gear

WASHINGTON — After a dramatic battle over whether to even hold its primary on Tuesday in light of the coronavirus pandemic, Wisconsin voters are in fact heading to the polls

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers had attempted to block in-person voting with a last-minute executive order, but on Monday night, courts stepped in to overturn that order.

With public health officials warning against non-discretionary travel and suggesting Americans wear face-coverings while venturing outdoors, Ryan Jenkins from TMJ4, NBC’s Milwaukee affiliate, spotted poll workers and voters donning masks and other protective equipment. 

Be sure to check out today’s First Read for more on how we got here, and for what this could portend for elections to come, particularly the general election.