New internal polling conducted for Tennessee Democrat Phil Bredesen's Senate campaign shows the race effectively tied less than one month before Election Day.
A memo authored by Bredesen pollster Frederick Yang and obtained by NBC News shows the race "essentially deadlocked," with the Democrat trailing Republican candidate Rep. Marsha Blackburn by one point, 47-48 percent of likely voters. The margin comes from an average of two polls taken in October.
That margin is well within the margin-of-error of 4 percentage points, and is slightly smaller than the 2 percentage-point margin of the campaign's late September polling. The memo was sent to Bredesen supporters and advisers.
But the results show Bredesen in better shape than other recent polls. Recent polling from Fox News, CBS News/YouGov and the New York Times/Siena College showed Blackburn leading by margins between 5 and 14 points, while a CNN poll from September found Bredesen leading by 5 points.
Bredesen's pollsters at Garin Hart Yang Research Group write in the memo that the race is "polarized among the most partisan voters" and that only "a handful" of voters remain undecided, stressing that turnout is likely going to determine the winner of the open seat.
The survey also shows that Bredesen is viewed much more positively by independent voters than Blackburn. Forty-eight percent view him positively compared to 28 percent for Blackburn.
Bredesen, the former governor of Tennessee, has put the state, which voted for President Trump by 26 points, in play for Democrats.
Early voting begins in Tennessee Wednesday.