Were the primaries good news or bad news for a blue Texas wave? Maybe both.
On Tuesday, we noted that perhaps the most important thing to watch in the Texas primaries would be the Democratic turnout numbers. After all, the early vote data showed Democrats beating Republicans handily in the state’s 15 most populous counties.
Well, here’s what we learned after crunching the numbers this morning:
Approximately 1.5 million Republicans voted in the GOP Senate primary, which is up 15 percent from the last midterm cycle in 2014. That’s compared with 1 million Dems who voted in their Senate primary – more than double from 2014. So Democrats are much more fired up than they were four years ago, but they’re still facing a gap versus the GOP. That’s not enough to convince the DSCC to play in this very expensive state. Yet the Dem-vs.-GOP margins were MUCH closer in the top House battlegrounds, especially those in urban areas – which is why they were originally identified as swing districts in the first place. In TX-7 (Houston), 38,000 turned out on the GOP side, versus 33,000 for Dems. In TX-23 (San Antonio), 44,000 Dems turned out, versus 31,000 Republicans. And in TX-32 (Dallas), 41,000 Republicans voted, versus 40,000 Dems. But remember: The Democrats had competitive races in these districts, while the GOP contests were incumbents facing minimal opposition.
Bottom line: If Democrats wanted evidence that they can turn Texas blue in a *statewide* race — the upcoming Cruz/O’Rourke showdown or even the 2020 presidential contest — they’re probably a little deflated by these numbers. (Because that aforementioned early vote data only drew from the densest areas of the state, it may have made things look a little too rosy for Democrats statewide.)
But if they’re focused on flipping competitive House seats in those urban/suburban House seats like Pete Sessions’ and John Culberson’s, where voters are diverse, affluent and/or college-educated types who are far from thrilled with Trump, this turnout data is encouraging, for sure.