A summer trip to the Caribbean has definite advantages. Cheap low-season flights to the region pop up constantly, such as last month's offer by USA3000 of $198 round-trip flights from Washington, D.C., to Cancun, Mexico. Many of the region's hotels also offer sharp seasonal discounts.
But -- you knew there was a but -- summer and early fall are also hurricane season. And at least one study is predicting that the run of storms in 2006 will be almost as treacherous as last year's record season.
According to a Colorado State University team headed by hurricane analyst William M. Gray, nine hurricanes will sweep through the Caribbean and United States this year, five of them major ones. In addition, 17 named storms and other less forceful tropical storms and depressions are expected.
In its own hurricane forecast issued late last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that slightly fewer storms will hit this year than last, but still far more than average: at least eight hurricanes, four to six of them serious, and 13 to 16 named tropical storms. The question is "not whether the season will be above average, but how much above normal it will be," NOAA's report said.
The forecasts stress that where and when storms will hit in the coming months is impossible to predict. While the official hurricane season extends from June through November, according to past patterns the heaviest activity is generally concentrated between mid-August and mid-September in the eastern Caribbean and between mid-September and mid-November in the western Caribbean.
Still, "compared to the beauty of the region, the risks of something untoward happening are small," said Chris Landsea, a NOAA hurricane specialist. "If somebody offered me a trip to the Caribbean in the middle of hurricane season, I'd jump on it."
Check weather patterns
There is no shortage of data designed to help travelers plan where to go and when. "No one would head to Antarctica without studying the weather patterns and how to protect themselves," said NOAA spokesman Frank Lepore. "Why should they go to the Caribbean, in a time of high storm activity, without making preparations?"
Among the resources available:
- Caribbean Hurricane Network ( http://www.stormcarib.com/ ), maintained by storm watchers throughout the Caribbean, has satellite maps of daily weather patterns and an island-by-island account of hurricane hits dating back to the 1800s.
- NOAA's site, http://www.noaa.gov/, is packed with useful information, including weather reports, historical data and news. One page features maps showing which Caribbean regions are most hurricane-prone during each month of the season.
- The Weather Channel's home page, http://www.weather.com/ , offers maps that track a hurricane's path and has a regular update of airport closings, among other useful details.
"The point is not to deter people from traveling to the Caribbean," said James Elsner, who specializes in hurricanes at Florida State University. "It's to help them be prepared in the event that a storm emergency happens."
Beyond informing themselves about a destination's weather history, travelers should also check the emergency preparedness procedures to be used by hotels and island authorities. Every traveler bound for the region in this season should:
- Ask the hotel whether it has provisions for guests to stay in the hotel if a storm hits. If not, what options does it provide?
- Ask the island's tourism authorities what kind of emergency facilities are available for evacuees.
- Query the airline about its policies for helping stranded travelers.
- Find out from the hotel and airline whether tickets or prepaid rooms are refunded in case of a storm.
- Invest in travel insurance (read the fine print to make sure hurricane coverage is included). If weather causes things to go awry, a good policy can help recoup most of the trip costs.
Choose your island wisely
Finding a dry Caribbean beach in hurricane season is always a gamble, but travelers can greatly sweeten their odds by choosing the right island. The safest bets: Aruba, Bonaire or Curacao, the so-called ABC islands, all located at the southernmost tip of the Lesser Antilles; Trinidad and Tobago, perched beyond the southern end of the Windward chain; and Margarita Island, just off the coast of Venezuela. Visit any of these islands in hurricane season, and you'll face only a 2 percent chance of encountering a serious storm, according to NOAA.
One reason is that the islands' proximity to the equator prevents the wind conditions hurricanes require. Another is that most of the major storm systems, originating in Africa at about 10 degrees north of the equator, head to the northwest across the Atlantic and are usually at a higher latitude than these islands by the time they reach the Caribbean.
And the islands most likely to be hit? You may want to think twice about heading to Grand Bahama Island in September, the stormiest month of the year in the Caribbean. By the Caribbean Hurricane Network's accounting, that piece of paradise has been hit by 40 hurricanes over the past 150 years, averaging one every four years. That makes it one of the most storm-prone islands and one of the riskiest to visit during hurricane season. Bermuda and the Virgin Islands also also frequently affected by heavy storms and hurricanes, particularly in early September to mid-October.
Weather experts are quick to point out that no island is totally hurricane-free. "The ABCs are not out of the Caribbean hurricane zone," noted Arthur Dania, director of the Curacao-based Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba. "We're at the southern fringe of the zone. Although storms are rare here, they can happen," he added. The last major hurricane to slap this region directly was on Sept. 23, 1877, before storms were given names.
Travelers should also not rule out a summer or fall Caribbean cruise as too risky. Modern cruise ships are equipped with sophisticated storm-warning systems. And they have well-honed procedures in case a storm system gathers while the ship is at sea. They can also outrun hurricanes. While most storms travel at eight to 10 knots, ships can barrel along at up to 22 knots.