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All In With Chris Hayes, Thursday, October 30th, 2014

Read the transcript from the Thursday show

Date: October 30, 2014

Guest: Jonathan Dintz, Arthur Caplan, Raymond Lisniak, Maggie Gray, Dave
Zirin, Tara Dowdell, Josh Barrow, Jess McIntosh

CHRIS HAYES, HOST: Tonight on ALL IN, breaking news, after a 48-day
manhunt in the mountains of Pennsylvania, police finally catch up to a man
accused of killing one of their own. We`ll have the latest. Plus --


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Pretty bold of you to go out on a bike ride while the
state police are here.


HAYES: Chasing Kaci Hickox. She goes for a bike ride to find her state-
ordered quarantine as Maine`s governor issues what sounds like a veiled


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She`s not acting as smart as she probably should.


HAYES: Then, one day after this --


GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE (R), NEW JERSEY: Sit down and shut up.


HAYES: This response.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think his usual, you know, bullying routine is
wearing thin.


HAYES: Comes this from Governor Chris Christie.


CHRISTIE: I don`t look forward to do that stuff, but I will shrink away
from democracy. It`s just another day at the White House.


HAYES: Plus, the midterm election ad blitz --


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I`m Nan Heyworth, and I approve this message.


HAYES: And the nail biting end to the World Series. Did Kansas make the
right call? ALL IN starts right now.

Good evening from New York. I`m Chris Hayes. We have breaking news
tonight. A seven-week man hunt has come to a close in Pennsylvania for a
man accused of killing one state trooper and seriously injuring another.

Eric Frein, 31 years old, the son of retired Army major who once said his
son was a good shot who, quote, "doesn`t miss" was captured today. A
senior source telling NBC News, he was caught in a hanger at an airport.

Pennsylvania State Police confirming tonight he has been taken into
custody. Frein`s accused of killing this man, State Police Corporal Brian
Dickenson as well as seriously wounding another state trooper, when Frein
allegedly opened fire outside the Blooming Grove barracks on September

And, at the time, the officers didn`t know who was shooting at them or
where the fire was coming from. The ambush set off one of the largest man
hunts in Pennsylvania history. Police immediately blocked roads, launched
helicopters, went door to door in the area, and flooded into the Pocono
Mountains by the hundreds.

A major clue came in the form of a green SUV. The car belonged to locals,
Deborah Frein, and her husband, Retired Army Major Ian Michael Frein.
Inside, police found camouflage face paint, empty rifle cases, cartridge
casings that match the one in the barracks and id for the couple`s son,
Eric Frein.

According to the AP, trackers found items of Frein`s in the woods like
soiled diapers, an AK-47 style assault rifle and two pipe bombs as well as
a journal that allegedly offered a methodical, cold account of the ambush.

Police reportedly spotted the man they believed to be Frein at several
points during the manhunt, but it was always from a distance. Frein
allegedly expressed anti-law enforcement views both online and to people
who knew him.

Again, police confirming tonight that Eric Frein is now in custody 40 days
after the manhunt began. Joining me now is WNBC chief investigative
reporter, Jonathan Dintz. Jonathan, what broke this case?

us, the U.S. Marshals had task force members out clearing buildings and
checking buildings in and around that small airport in the Pocono Mountains
region and they spotted him.

They waited and then they moved in when he was outside an airport hangar
and he went without a struggle, without a fight, and they placed him into
custody. And when they went inside the hangar, they found some belongings.
They also found two weapons, a rifle and a handgun.

He was arrested without incident. He is now in the custody of the
Pennsylvania State Police en route to a local barracks there where he will
be questioned, processed and at some point in the next 24 hours, and make a
court appearance on the charges of shooting those two Pennsylvania State

HAYES: How far -- the hanger that they found him, how far is that from the
original incident? And is it broadly in the area that has been the subject
of such intense scrutiny?

DINTZ: Broadly, it`s in the same area. I don`t know the exact miles, but
it`s in the area. It`s part of the area that the marshals were out with a
special operations team clearing and searching. And it was during this
patrol, clearing some of these buildings, that they stumbled upon him.

So it was in the region and, again, no one injured during the arrest.
There were some photos this evening of him in the back of a police car
being led away by the Pennsylvania State Police after the marshals turned
him over.

And a lot of officers were speaking with, relieved. They`re happy.
They`re celebrating that they were finally able to get this man after this
48-day man hunt. Remember, you had police out there in the woods with
repeated sightings from area residents saying we saw him there, we saw him

They were literally living out there in the woods, with repeated knowing he
was still out there somewhere and their big break came around 6:00, 6:15
this evening.

HAYES: He is now being taken, if I`m not mistaken, to the same barracks
where the actual attack took place? Is that correct?

DINTZ: That`s our understanding. He will go to the Blooming Grove
barracks where he will be questioned and processed. No word on whether
police will be doing a news conference this evening. They`re still trying
to dot their I`s, cross their T`s.

I`m sure they want to get the suspect in custody. But, again, Pennsylvania
State Police officially confirming he is in custody. It was during a
marshal special operations team that was out there doing a search that they
came upon the airport hangar and outside they found him and inside, two
weapons, a handgun and a rifle.

HAYES: Jonathan, thanks so much.

Joining me now is NBC News correspondent, Ron Allen. He covered the search
for Eric Frein in Pennsylvania.

Ron, this is such a strange, chilling crime that was committed, seemingly
so inexplicable to the people that were there at the time and, obviously,
the law enforcement subsequently. Do we have any sense of what motivated
this at all?

RON ALLEN, NBC NEWS: No, we don`t, Chris. And I want`s very strange and
very odd, and in terms of the geography, it all seems to have happened
within 10 miles or so of his home, which is the really strange part of it.

The police have described this as a cat and mouse game that went on for
almost seven weeks now. There were numerous sightings, possible sightings
of him. It was all in an area around 10 miles square of his home. We
don`t know why he did this.

Police have never really revealed a motive if they know for that matter.
There was relationship that police have said between the troopers who were
ambushed and Frein that they could tell. This seemed to happen out of the

But they do know something about what grudge he may have had with law
enforcement. The search in that area was massive. And, remember, this is
a very remote, peaceful, normally, tourist area up in the Pocono Mountains.

And although people have described this as a hunt through the woods, it`s
really wilderness. Once you get through the backyards of some of these
homes, it`s really thick, dense brush. There are caves, there are
mountains. There are all other kinds of objects and impediments.

That really made it difficult for the police to search through this area.
There is a lot of water. We heard a number of times that the police were
losing the scent of Frein because of waterways, creeks, streams in this
particular area.

But again a massive search as many as a thousand officers out there at one
point although in recent weeks it had been scaled down because of the cost
and because the demands -- the demand of keeping this, there was a thousand
officers out this at one point, although it had been scaled down because of
the cost.

But the police kept maintaining that they were putting pressure on him,
evidence that he was living in the woods, and now, all of the sudden,
they`ve got their man.

HAYES: It`s remarkable, I should say, that he is alleged to have committed
these crimes. As of yet, that has not obviously worked its way through the
judicial process. Ron Allen, thank you very much.

All right, before news of Eric Frein`s capture broke late this evening, the
other big story of the day involved a bike ride. No, really. More on that


HAYES: Bike ride scene around the world today next.


HAYES: The biggest story today was about a woman in Maine who went on a
bike ride with her boyfriend.


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Good morning, Carol. Kasi Hickox just left her home,
that was minutes ago, she was on her bicycle with her boyfriend.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She went to a bike ride with her boyfriend this

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: She was with her boyfriend, right?

RICK LEVENTHAL: It`s not every day a bike ride with your boyfriend makes
national news.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They just jumped on the bikes and they were off.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why did you decide to do it?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We just wanted to enjoy this beautiful day?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why do you wear a helmet?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This is something I like to do. Since we`ve moved
here, this has been our trail. All right, guys, thank you so much.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Kasi Hickox and her boyfriend returned from a bike

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Did they stop you?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They did not. Hickox has not stayed inside her home.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There`s no legal action against me so I`m free to go
on a bike ride.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She`s really getting annoying now. She is not behaving
like a professional.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She should be quarantined for being obnoxious.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Very immature, selfish behavior. I`m not sure why
someone who`s such a humanitarian in West Africa becomes sort of not a
humanitarian when they come back home.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You know, this morning, Ted and I just said we want
to go for a bike ride. So here we are.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Is it something that you guys do often?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We do, yes. Thank you, guys.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: In that very crowded area in Maine swarming by press.
I think she`s enjoying this just a little bit.


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We`re going to talk about that coming up.


HAYES: Yes, Kaci Hickox is a nurse who returned last week from Sierra
Leone where she was treating Ebola patients. Hickox, it`s important to
note, does not have Ebola. In fact, she tested negative for the disease
over the weekend and as of right now, is showing no symptoms.

According to leading public health experts, she is not a threat to the
population in her current condition. But that has not stopped one -- not
one, but two different governors from trying to quarantine her against her

First, being New Jersey Governor Chris Christie who kept Hickox quarantined
in a tent, for what he originally said would be a 21-day term. But facing
a backlash of the policy and after a negative Ebola test, Christie
relented. Then she was free to go, allowed to leave.

She went to a house that she shares with her boyfriend in Fort Camp, Maine
which is, incidentally, about as remote as you can get in the United
States. Right now, the governor of that state is scrambling to find the
authority to quarantine her in her home there.

Earlier this week, the state called for a quarantine of the individual in
his or her home for 21 days after the last possible exposure to Ebola. And
since Hickox has arrived back home, a state trooper has posted outside.

Yesterday, Maine`s health commissioner says the state was in the process of
filing a court order to force her to comply with the quarantine. Hickox
responded saying she had no intention of complying with that order if

And then today, defying the state, she took a bike ride. In response, the
governor essentially seemed to threaten her with mob violence.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What is the stance right now? Is that OK for her to
do? Can she come out of the house?

GOV. PAUL LEPAGE, MAINE: Right now, she can come out of the house if she
wants. But we can`t protect her when she does that. The reason there`s a
police car there to protect her, more than anybody because the last thing I
want is for her to get hurt.

But, at the same token, her behavior is really riling a lot of people up.
I can only do what I can do. We`re trying to protect her, but she`s not
acting as smart as she probably should.


HAYES: Ask to clarify the state`s position, the governor promised he would
use the full extent of the law to enforce the state`s wishes.


LEPAGE: She can`t go into establishments or other places. I think she
would restrict herself to what she`s doing. I don`t want her within 3 feet
of anybody.

I am going to use the legal provisions to the fullest extent that the law
allows me. And I just hope that she`s -- she recognizes that.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And would that be the state troopers who would get
involved at that point if she tried to walk into a shop?

LEPAGE: Likely not. I`m just asking her to be reasonable. Let`s get to
November 10th and then you can do whatever you would like.


HAYES: What has been set up in Maine is a possibility that a woman who
let`s remember has exposed herself to very sick people in one of the worst
outbreaks of our time could be arrested for leaving her house after being
turned into a public enemy.

But, perhaps, not surprisingly, Kaci Hickox, a woman who just came back
from watching children die of hemorrhagic fever is not particularly
(inaudible) by political bluster from Chris Christie and Paul Lepage.

NBC News correspondent, Stephanie Gosk is in Fort Camp, Maine, she
witnessed Kaci Hickox`s bike ride earlier. I spoke to her tonight when she
was standing outside Hickox`s house.


HAYES: That was truly one of the most surreal scenes I have seen in a
while, particularly as this Ebola story has played out.

Something interesting happened today beyond just that bike rider in the
context of that bike ride. So Kaci Hickox says tomorrow, I might leave the
house. Sure enough, 9:00 a.m., she leaves the house riding her bike with
her boyfriend. They stay right around here.

They don`t go into town. The state trooper follows them. We follow them
to see what they are going to say and then everyone sort of stands back and
says, what`s the state of Maine going to do now? Now, officials in Maine
have said they were going to pursue a court order so that they could arrest
her if she left her house, so they could mandate her quarantine. That
never happened.

Instead, you have the governor of Maine coming out saying, I don`t know,
maybe a bike ride isn`t that bad. Yes, we can basically accept that. It
was a little bit of a retreat for officials here. You get the sense that
there was kind of a collective inhale and everyone went maybe we just need
to relax a little bit.

HAYES: That`s a really good point. She has showed herself uncowed,
generally, and called the bluff of two successive governors. The whole
reason this is a news story is because she is, according to officials, the
governor, such a threat to public health that her being outside her house
is so dangerous.

And there are 40 members of the press out there. Do you feel threatened?
Do you feel this is a hazardous assignment on your part to be near Kaci

GOSK: She was out on her bike. I mean, she was looking more athletic than
the rest of us who had been standing out here all day and healthier than we
are by a long stretch. You did not get the sense looking at her that she
was sick.

Obviously, you know, people have fears about Ebola and there are a lot of
questions that people feel haven`t been answered well enough. Policies not
put in place fast enough and sure enough to give people confidence in how
this should all be handled.

But I`ll tell you, certainly out here on the street, there really isn`t a
sense that you`re going to get sick from hanging around Kaci Hickox.

HAYES: I think that`s a fair statement. Stephanie Gosk, thank you very


HAYES: As a president of the United States and the head of the CDC and the
head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and
Elizabeth Warren and Samantha Power and a whole lot of other people have
said, there is no scientific basis for a 21-day quarantine for all health
care workers returning from West Africa.

In fact, such a policy could deter desperately needed help from getting to
West Africa, but that doesn`t mean it`s not popular. Polling shows it
very, very much is.

A whopping 80 percent of people think U.S. citizens returning from West
Africa should be quarantined upon arrival. Only 17 percent of people think
they should be allowed to enter the U.S. if they have no symptoms.

Joining me now Arthur Caplan, founder and director of the Division of
Medical Ethics at New York University Langone Medical Center. He is also a
bio ethics professor.

Well, you pointed headed intellectuals, you guys say that this isn`t sound
science, but the people have spoken. They`re right and you`re wrong.

that the American people enjoys, it looks like most of the press corps will
soon be in quarantine. They`re certainly within three feet of her. Look,
people are afraid. I understand that. They`re getting all kinds of mixed

The army is going to quarantine. The state of New Jersey says you`ve got
to quarantine. There`s a lot of confusion out there. We`ve had 40 years
of experience with Ebola in Africa. We don`t know how to cure it.

But we know how you get it and what you see again and again and again is
that people don`t get it unless you have symptoms. That`s why we know it.
It`s not some theory. It`s not some hypothetical. It`s hard facts.

HAYES: I`ve got to bring this up because I`ve brought it up every time.
Thomas Eric Duncan, the index case here in Liberia. That guy went to an
emergency room, sent home with antibiotics, spent two more days around his
family with Ebola, full -- like, real Ebola.

Running a fever, symptomatic, the whole nine, no one got it except for the
health care workers, who cared for him when he was at his sickest.

CAPLAN: Here`s another thing to remember, another fact. This is not the
first health care worker since that`s come home. I`ll be there are upwards
of 50 that have come back --

HAYES: We just covered it.

CAPLAN: We haven`t covered it. They are wondering around. Nobody is
sick. They`ve been here for months maybe for six months, nine months.

HAYES: Now you`re really going to terrify people.

CAPLAN: But they are out there, every day, when people took care of the
guy in Dallas or at Emory, guess what, those health workers go home.

HAYES: That`s right. Dr. Craig Spencer who is in Bellevue right now, the
people in America right now at the highest risk of transmitting, of getting
Ebola, I think it would be fair to say, if the health care team currently
caring for Dr. Craig Spencer, who definitely does have Ebola --

CAPLAN: So far the U.S. just stressed this so the people get the picture
not freaking out. The only people who have gotten Ebola are health care
workers. Nobody else. Unless you sleep with somebody, they`re having
diarrhea and you`re in the area, I mean, it`s fluids. The virus doesn`t
travel very well. So we`ve got to calm that fear.

HAYES: So let`s talk about the army quarantine. People are saying well,
the army is doing it. So what`s your response to that?

CAPLAN: I think the army quarantines by habit. I think the army is just a
group that kind of lives under quarantine.

HAYES: And the other thing is that soldiers are told what to do all the
time. Arthur Caplan, thank you very much.

CAPLAN: My pleasure.

HAYES: So here`s what Governor Chris Christie had to say for himself the
day after telling a Hurricane Sandy victim to, quote, "sit down and shut


CHRISTIE: It`s just another day at the ranch, the ranch of Christie and so
we`ll just keep doing our jobs.


HAYES: The problem is, he`s not doing a very good job doing his job. More
on that ahead.



HAYES: Last night, at this show had a conversation with the man who just
yesterday became the newest member of an elite club, people who have been
publicly yelled at by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

James Keeney is the man you see here holding a sign at a Christie event
yesterday in Belmar, New Jersey commemorating the two-year anniversary of
Hurricane Sandy. True to form, the governor did not take kindly to
Keeney`s message.


CHRISTIE: Somebody like you doesn`t know a damn thing about what you`re
talking about except to stand up and show off when the cameras are here.
I`ve been here when the cameras aren`t here, buddy, and done the work.
I`ve been here when the cameras weren`t here and did the work. You want to
have the conversation later, I`m happy to have it, buddy. But until that
time, sit down and shut up.


HAYES: Today, American Bridge filed a records request for a list of all
the trips Christie made to the Jersey Shore to work on Sandy recovery
without cameras present. We will keep you posted on that one. And an
interview with MSNBC`s Casey Hunt today, Christie doubled downed in his


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Would you encourage your kids to behave like that
towards other people?

CHRISTIE: No, I would not encourage my kids to treat a public official
with disrespect and treat the audience with disrespect. I would hope they
wouldn`t do that. And if they didn`t do that, they would be no need for
anybody else to react the way I did.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Do you have any regrets about yesterday?



HAYES: Last night, James Keady explained what he was protesting laying out
some data on funding for the state`s housing recovery program.


JAMES KEADY: Only 20 percent of those dollars have gotten to the people,
right? Of the $1.1 billion, $219 million has gone out. That means that
the governor and his staff in Trenton are sitting on $800 million.


KEADY: Yes, it`s absolutely true. And you can check the New Jersey
recovery dash board. This is as of 10/24, unless $800 million went out the
door in the last four days. It`s sitting there.


HAYES: All right, so we thought those numbers were worth a fact check and
it turns out, they were right on target. As you can see here, on the
aforementioned recovery dash board, New Jersey has only awarded about half
of the total $1.1 billion for reconstruction, rehabilitation, elevation,
and mitigation program.

And as of today, just $222 million of those funds have made it into the
checking account of New Jersey residents affected. So by our calculation
that means the state has handed out just 20 percent of the $1.1 billion
allocated to the program.

And Christie said yesterday that while he`s still not pleased with the pace
of the program, he`s made changes to get it moving faster. But reports by
journalists and advocates have pointed to deeper problems with the state`s
approached from the botched process to nine residents who should have been
eligible for Sandy relief, to funds being awarded to towns that suffered
little damage in the storm.

And as my guest pointed out last night, this is an issue Christie has
called his number one priority.


CHRISTIE: We have made it a priority to put the people who are most
affected and least fortunate financially to the head of the line.


HAYES: That doesn`t even touch the other challenges New Jersey currently
faces like the fact its long term unemployment rate is now the second worst
in the
country or that the state`s credit rating has been downgraded eight times
under Christie, the most ever for a Garden State governor.

And there`s the nearly $1.6 billion budget shortfall -- that`s billion with
a "b" -- last year, its $90 billion in unfunded pension and health benefit
liabilities and allegations that Christie has skirted state and federal pay
play regulations in handing out pension management contracts to donors,
including the firm of the guy currently running for governor in

All of which makes it not much of a surprise that Christie`s favorability
rating is under water, just 43 percent in the latest Rutgers/Eagleton poll,
the lowest approval rating this poll has ever recorded for the governor.

This is not someone who appears poinsed to make a strong presidential run.

And we haven`t even mentioned Bridgegate.

Joining me now is New Jersey state senator Raymond Lisniak.

Well, what grade do you give the governor in his second term so far?
Forget the first term, second term.

RAYMOND LISNIAK, NEW JERSEY STATE SENATOR; Well, obviously a failing mark.
And he`s not paying attention to business, he`s campaigning throughout the
country. And when he comes -- I think what happened was the guy who
questioned him struck a cord, that`s why he overreacted, because he has no
answer. He has no answer, but to yell and scream. And that`s not good.

HAYES: Did you -- you know, one of the things I see out here a lot from
folks is that New Jersey Democrats rolled over for this guy. You guys
rolled over for him, you worked with him on this and that...

LISNIAK: Don`t put me in that boat.

HAYES: Well, but that New Jersey Democrats did, that basically...

LISNIAK: Some of them -- at first, yeah.

HAYES: That they completely rolled over for this guy. He cruised to re-
election. Barbara Buono couldn`t get her phone calls answered, she
couldn`t get donors. And now here he is in his second term and it`s hard
to say, even just from a nonpartisan perspective, the numbers show the
state is in good shape.

LISNIAK: No, it`s not in good shape. And he`s not paying attention to
business. He should make a decision. Either he`s going to be governor of
state or he`s going to be a leader of the Republican Party and campaign

Right now we have an absentee governor. We have a part-time governor.

With all these problems that you talked about, plus we have no money to fix
roads or repair bridges. You didn`t even mention that.

We need...

HAYES: $1.6 billion shortfall.

LISNIAK: And Atlantic City, over 8,000 people out of work.

HAYES: Atlantic City -- I didn`t even mention Atlantic City, which was
another centerpiece of this administration was Atlantic City, which is --
the projects that have been engineered under governor Christie are doing
terribly. Atlantic City is in terrible fiscal shape, right.

LISNIAK: It`s been a failure.

HAYES: I mean, a pretty unmitigated one.

LISNIAK: Totally. And he`s fiddling, while he`s campaigning. He needs to
pay attention to his...

HAYES: How does that work with your constituents when they see him do
something like order a quarantine and getting on a plane to Florida?

LISNIAK: Ordering the quarantine at first was popular...

HAYES: I`m sure.

LISNIAK: But then when he goes off and doesn`t pay attention to things
like Sandy relief or any of the other problems that we have --
unemployment, he should either leave or come back to New Jersey. Either
one, we need a full-time governor.

HAYES: So you think he`s just half and half? He`s half in and half out at
this point?

LISNIAK: He`s less than half and half. We need a full-time governor.

HAYES: State senator Raymond Lisniak, thank you very much.

The two things everybody is talking about after game 7 of the World Series
last night, we will talk about them here next.



ANNOUNCER: Salvador Perez, the 2-2. Popped up. Sandoval in foul
territory. Giants win. A World Series win for the San Francisco Giants
for the third time in the last five years.


HAYES: An absolutely thrilling ending last night to a really thrilling
World Series. The San Francisco Giants beat the Kansas City Royals 3-2 in
Game 7 of the World Series, which delighted the folks in the Mission
District who engaged in both revelry and some arson. By giving San
Francisco its third World Series title in five years, which broke the
hearts of Kansas City fans who waited 29 years to see their team get back
to the World Series only to have their season end with the
tying run just 90 feet away.

Today, everybody is talking about two things. One, the unbelievable World
Series performance of Giants pitcher Madison Baumgartner for which he was
named MVP. He pitched five shutout innings out of the bullpen yesterday on
just two days rest and he allowed just one run in 36 innings in the World

The other thing people are talking about is this play.


ANNOUNCER: Here`s the 0-1. That`s in the air to left center. That ball
is down. And it gets passed to the wall. Gordon is going to dig for
third. A mistake in the outfield, and he will hold there with two outs,
representing the tying run.


HAYES: All right, so here`s the context of the play. Royals had a very
hard time getting a hit off Madison Bumgarner most of the night. Now, it`s
the bottom of the ninth, two outs. The Royals are down to their final out.
And Alex Gordon hits a single of Bumgarner and a two base error gets Gordon
to third and the question people are debating today is whether Royals third
base coach, Mike Jirschele should have sent Gordon home with a chance to
score the tying run. And Nate Silver who is Mr. States Geek, believes that
the Royals should have sent Gordon home despite the fact that Silver
himself admits the percentages weren`t in their favor.

Quote, "Gordon should have tried to score even if he was a heavy underdog
to make it. It wouldn`t have been the right move even if he was safe even
30 percent of the time."

But Jeff Sullivan over at Fan Graphs lays out the case for why Alex Gordon
barely had a chance pointing out that Gordon wasn`t even at third base when
Giant`s shortstop Brandon Crawford got the ball. And by showing this video
of that same player, Crawford, the shortstop, throwing out a runner in a
game earlier this year from about the same spot in the field where he was
last night and doing it to a guy who was a lot closer to making it home
than Gordon was.

For all those people saying sending Gordon home would have made for one of
the best plays in World Series history, imagine getting thrown out by 30
feet and that ending the season.

Joining me now, David Zirin, sports editor of Nation magazine, and Maggie
Gray, reporter of, anchor for Sports Illustrated Video.

Maggie, I love the fact that Nate Silver wrote this piece, because a lot of
people I think were having that thought. And a lot of people this morning
have been talking about it. Do you think they should have sent him?

MAGGIE GRAY, SI.COM REPORTER: Well, listen, Game 7, and particularly
bottom of the ninth inning in Game 7 of a World Series does weird things to
people, right? You have the book. You can play by the book, you can play
by all the rules, and if you were playing by the book it was right to stop
Alex Gordon at third base.

But bottom of the ninth inning in Game 7 of the World Series when you
cannot get a hit off Madison Bumgarner, that is the time to throw the book
away. And even Nate Silver understands..

HAYES: And that`s what -- Dave, that was sort of -- what was so funny
about this is that you think of Nate Silver. He is sort of -- you know, he
comes from this background in baseball stats and the sort of saber metric
revolution, this kind of Revenge of the Nerds era in baseball in which it`s
not the go with
your gut and you know era anymore. And here he is saying this thing that I
feel like is the thing taht sports radiocallers were saying today. He was
like you`ve got to send him in that setting. You`ve got to send him.

DAVE ZIRIN, SPORTS EDITOR, THE NATION: Right. What`s also hilarious about
it is that people from that analytics community do not believe in things
like pitching momentum and the idea that a pitcher can be hot during a
game. They think that`s a big myth created by sports radio blabberheads
and old school coaches.

And, yet, Nate Silver in his article says even though I don`t believe in
momentum, wow, Madison Bumgarner had himself some momentum. You were not
get a hit off that guy.

Look, here`s what`s so crazy about it. Is that absolutely I believe you
have to send Alex Gordon home, but if I was the third base coach, there`s
no way I`m sending Alex Gordon home. That`s like the sportwriting
equivalent of I was for the war before I was against it, but that`s my
position, because look, if you`re the third base coach, that`s very low on
the totem pole of a major league baseball team. The idea that a third base
coach would be responsible for the last out of your season, I mean, that`s
one of those grand unwritten rules of baseball. It`s like, no, Salvatore
Perez had the right as a player to end the season for the Royals at the
plate, not the third base coach.

HAYES: Well, and that`s the point is that -- I mean, and particularly I
was actually persuaded by Nate Silver. And then when I read the Fan Graphs
piece and I saw the Crawford throw on that relay earlier in the season
where it`s just -- he`s got a great arm, accurate as hell, nailed the guy
at home plate. I thought yeah, if it goes the worst possible way, which is
that he`s thrown out by 30 feet, the entire off-season in Kansas City is,
you know, months and months and months of
people talking about the third base coach making the worst third base
coaching decision in the history Major League Baseball.

GRAY: Chris, you think it`s going to be ridiculous if you think that
Kansas City fans are not going to be thinking about this for the next
months and months.
baseball provides these moments and still -- until pitches and catchers
report again coming up next spring.

Listen, this was -- baseball provides these moments. And even Nate Silver
can understand -- provides these moments that we`ve never seen before.
What we were watching from Madison Bumgarner was literally something we`ve
never seen before.

HAYES: Never happened -- may never, ever happen again.

He didn`t give up any unearned runs?

GRAY: Well, one, no other run. Yes.

Here`s the thing, we`re seeing something that literally could never happen
again. This is unconventional. And unconventional times call for
unconventional plays.

HAYES: well, that`s the point, Dave is it like Bumgarner was so insane, so
insane in this series, he was insane throughout the playoffs. It was just
-- he was unhittable. And I feel like this is where, you know, you`ve seen
this before. You saw it it with Beckett that year with the Marlins when he
was just completely up untouchable and just -- I remember he destroyed the
Cubs. And then he just in the Series, they just pulled him out and had him
throw inning after inning.

There does seem these grooves that certain pitchers get in where you just
have no chance. And Bumgarner was just on some other plane of existence in
this series.

ZIRIN: He was the genetic splicing of Bob Gibson, Randy Johnson and Cid
Finch. For people who don`t know, Cid Finch was a mythical pitcher made up
by Spots Illustrated on April Fool`s Day in the 80s. And that`s the only
thing you can compare Madison Bumgarner to, because it was a mythical
performance. It was the sort of thing we had never seen before, which is
exactly why I would sooner take my chances in the Giant shortstop getting a
case of what we call the yips in terms of turning around and maybe throwing
that ball...

HAYES: Put the pressure on him in a high pressure situation, make him like
maybe overthrow, try to beat guide it in, beat you perfect, hope for
at the plate, hope that maybe Buster Posey drops the ball.

GRAY: And listen, this is the Fan Graph thing, this is the difference
between what you saw Brandon Crawford earlier in the season, the middle of
the season and bottom of the ninth inning in Game 7 of the World Series are
two different universes.

HAYES: Dave Zirin and Maggie Gray, thank you very much. Certainly enjoyed

All right, still ahead, what can file footage, a Morgan Freeman
impersonator and a good ole dose of American know how get you?


ANNOUNCER: Sometimes, an opportunity for change can seem impossible. Jeff
McCormick, that`s the greatest opportunity there is.


HAYES: Apparently not very good sound editing. That`s just one of the
many knockout political ads this mid-term election. We`ve got even more
coming up. And believe me, they are doozies, next.


HAYES: Know what`s the only thing worse for a lawmaker having to vote for
an unpopular piece of legislation? Having to cast the deciding vote on
that piece of legislation.

Now the Affordable Care Act got through the Senate with 60 votes from 58
Democrats and 2 Independents. That`s just enough to break a filibuster,
which meant that every single vote I guess could be characterized as the
deciding vote, a fact that was not lost on the Tea Party Patriots when they
rolled out these ads last year.


ANNOUNCER: Mary Landrieu cast the deciding vote to make you live under

Al Franken cast the deciding vote to make you live under Obamacare

Mark Pryor cast the deciding vote...

Mark Warner cast the deciding vote.

Hay hagan cast the deciding vote...

Mark Begich cast the deciding vote...

Mark Udall cast the deciding vote to make you live under Obamacare.


HAYES: When I listen to that I think about the voice-over session. Can we
get an A/B on that? OK. OK. Do that again. Good.

Now, those ads are not even in the ballpark as the most I insidious and
cringe inducing spots we`ve seen this political cycle. We are going to
show you some of the worst, including this one.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Black people are just being used by limousine liberals
who have become our new overseers. We`ve only traded one plantation for
another. You are not Kay Hagan`s cause.


hayes: traded one plantation for another, the standout ads, for better or
worse, of the 2014 election cycle ahead.


HAYES: We`re back. Joining me now, Tara Dowdell, Democratic political
consultant; Josh Barrow, reporter for the Upshot at the New York Times; and
MSNBC contributor Jess McIntosh, communications director.

All right, standout ads. This ad really caught my eye. This is Nan
Hayworth, a Republican House candidate in New York, who is is a Republican
whose opponent (inaudible) is running ads attacking her for extremism, her
voting record, her ties to the Tea Party in a district that`s fairly
moderate, right? Where those things are unpopular. And this is her
response ad. Take a look.


WILL: I`m Will. As a gay man coming to terms with who I am wasn`t easy,
but my parents love me for who I am and for whom I love. So when I hear
vicious negative attacks against Nan Hayworth, I have to speak out.

Nan Hayworth is no extremist. She`s my mom. She`s kind, she`s
compassionate, she`s always been there for me. And she`ll always be there

approve this message.

WILL: And I do, too.


HAYES: Two thoughts on that ad. One, pretty good ad, particularly given
who -- there`s something weird about the last two or three seconds that I
find bizarrely strange and just totally off. The eye looking up kiss.

UNIDENTIFEID FEMALE: That moment from the crew.

HAYES: That`s right. Yes, thank you.


HAYES: Well, something else, this says a remarkable thing about the time
we`re in, right. This is a Republican candidate for the House of
Representatives who has to win moderate swing voters, but also has to win
her base and she`s able to run this ad and say this is something that has
become acceptable enough in the Republican Party that I can do this and
play entirely to the center on it.

Well, and also -- it`s also this sort of kind of, this is personal and
never mind the fact that I didn`t support DOMA repeal or I refuse to
endorse marriage equality in New York State, both of which were true of
this particular person, that like I have a gay son and so it`s all good.

JESS MCINTOSH, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR: This is sort of a new twist on what
Republicans have been doing for a while where when they are accused of
policies that negatively affect a segment of the electorate, they say oh,
it doesn`t matter that I vote against women, I have a wife as if that`s not
a complete nonsequitor.


MCINTOSH: Yes. There is something...

HAYES: There is something more effective about this ad for this reason,
which is that like there is this deep emotional core to what coming out is
and acceptance and rejection by families, and particularly if there`s a
line of political attack that says you are intolerant, and that is a sort
of disqualifying characteristic of you as a person, that`s an emotionally
effective ad, I think.

DOWDELL: Yes. And the one thing you want to do when you create any ad is
you want to connect. And you want to connect, like you said, emotionally.
And that`s what she did in this ad.

HAYES: I`ve got to reiterate again, her record on this, it`s not the
worst. It`s not the worst record on LGBT rights, but it`s not good. She`s
not been a profile in courage.

JOSH BARROW, NEW YORK TIMES: Well, I think it`s a mixed record. She was a
member of the LGBT caucus in congress when she was a Republican member.
And she supported -- and the other thing is this is an issue that`s moved
so rapidly. I mean, her position on gay marriage is that she thinks it`s
something that states ought to decide that they should have gay marriage,
but she thinks that, you know, it`s up to the people what they want in

This was a position that Democrats took routinely very recently. I mean...

HAYES: The president of the United States.

BARROW: Two-and-a-half years ago the president of the United States not
only took that position, but was opposed to gay marriage. Now the president
of the United States not only favors gay marriage, but thinks there`s a
constitutional right to it. And so since that`s essentially what she`s
arguing about with Sean Patrick Maloney (ph), whether there`s a
constitutional right to gay marriage, this is I think this is basically her
saying look, I`m not an extremist. This is a stance that I think very
recently is one that people would have thought of as a progressive one.

HAYES: You made this point about the sort of idea of how Republicans
respond when there are attacked by Democrats for a voting a record or
policies that are bad for a certain portion of the electorate. And a new
frontier in this is the Terry Lynn Land ad.

OK, she`s the Republican Senate candidate in Michigan who has not run a
particularly good race. She polling behind. That seems like a safe seat
for Democrats. Gary Peters has been doing stuff about reproductive choice
about war women. And this is her response. Take a listen.


Congressman Gary Peters and his buddies want you to believe I`m waging a
war on women. Really? Think about that for a moment.

I`m Terry Lynn Land. And I approve this message, because as I women I
might know a little bit more about women than Gary Peters.


HAYES: OK. I find that ad, like, terrible and cringing.

MCINTOSH: This is my favorite ad of this cycle. It perfectly encapsulates
everything Republicans are doing wrong when it comes to women. They have
literally nothing to say.

HAYES: That`s right. There`s not a single substantive rebuttal.

MCINTOSH: She sips her coffee. Music -- elevator music plays and she
says nothing. There is no argument. There is nothing that she can say to
voters other than I am, in fact, myself a woman, which is actually the
identity politics that Republicans are usually so up in arms about that
here seemingly they just have no problem at all.

This ad was sort of the beginning of the end for her. I think when it came
out, political pundits loved it and they heralded it as their new answer to
the war on women, and then she just went down.


I don`t know, her campaign, I think, has not been successful and she`s not
going to win. But I think this is a theme that has come up in lot`s of
senate races this year, including in Colorado. Mark Udall has run very
aggressively on these issues and has been sort of mocked from the right,
but also by the Denver Post, which is the sort of centrist paper that has
been endorsing the Republican, and basically saying all Mark Udall will
talk about is contraception. And it`s sort of insulting treating it like
this is the only issue in the campaign, and the core issue in the campaign.

And so I think the point of this ad is supposed to be like the war on women
issue that Democrats that are talking about are these actually the core
issues that
women voters care about in the campaign or not?

HAYES: Right. But I think -- and I think there`s been this presumption by
Republicans that they`re not. But I think they are. I mean...

MCINTOSH: Poll after poll says that women care about issues of economic
security which include access to health care.

DOWDELL: Exactly. UI is an economic issue as well. And it does resonate
with women. And that`s why we`re pushing these issues.

But at the same time I think you`re right, this particular ad se is sitting
there and she, like you said, zero response. And that`s why she is 15
behind according to the Detroit Free Press poll.

HAYES: Well, and you also have to offer some kind of substantive rebuttal.
I mean, I think the idea that you just...

DOWDELL: Like throw something against the wall.

HAYES: All right, Tara Dowdell, Josh Barrow and Jess McIntosh. We didn`t
even get to the trading new plantation ad, which actually I don`t think
there`s a big ad buy before it. And I think it`s a trolling operation, so
maybe that`s for the best.

Thank you all. That is ALL IN for this evening. "THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW"
starts right now.


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